Just in case you recently emerged from a number of years hibernating in a cave, let’s give a surface scratching summation of the views of each side in this situation concerning the Iranian Nuclear Development Program. Iran insists that their nuclear program is strictly limited to medical research and isotope production and energy production. They profess absolute separation between the Iranian Revolutionary Guards ballistic missile program and their nuclear program. At the same time reports have claimed that some of the nuclear sites are located in close proximity to Revolutionary Guards instillations and under their direction.
Russia, in close association with China, Venezuela, North Korea and other countries which are allied or have friendly relations take a guarded position concerning interference with Iranian internal programs. With Russia and China in the lead in the Security Council of the United Nations, the sanctions allowed to be pushed through the world body have been limited and watered down to the point of near total uselessness. Simultaneously, these countries continue to trade with Iran, buy Iranian oil, and even sell weapons, drilling, other oil industry related machinery among other sensitive items. This cover has made a unified front for pressuring Iran to quit their presumed Nuclear Weapons Program completely impossible.
Israel is the country leading the protestations against allowing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons capabilities. The main obstacle to the Israeli message acceptance is the belief by much of the world that Israel is the obvious first target and likely the only target of any Iranian nuclear weapons should they attain such capabilities. Yet, the Israeli main message points to the disruption of the entire Middle East, the threat to Europe, and the possibilities of an Iranian attack on the oil production, flow, or shipping through the Straits of Hormuz leading to an economic conflagration of world-wide proportions and the high likelihood of such leading to the start of another World War. The Israeli message is pretty much rejected by the vast majority of sources quoted in the media and is reputed to simply be the little boy crying ‘wolf’ yet again and thus should simply be ignored.
The United States separation from Israel was touched upon in recent statements made by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, who was quoted claiming, “We have to acknowledge that they (Israel) … see that (Iranian) threat differently than we do. It’s existential to them. My intervention with them was not to try to persuade them (Israel) to my thinking or allow them to persuade me to theirs, but rather to acknowledge the complexity and commit to seeking creative solutions, not simple solutions.” This was probably one of the clearest and most honest clarifications of the position taken by the Administration of President Barack Obama, the continuing position of the State Department, and the official opinion from the Joint Chiefs of Staff thus also the Pentagon. So, what exactly can be expected from the United States going forward concerning the perceived threats that are Iran?
The first and probably most important view that seems to permeate through the entire current view of the United States framing of Iran is that Iranian leadership is not all that different than any other leadership we have dealt with throughout history. The leaders who currently decide the policies of the United States concerning Iran and much of the Middle East are one of complete fantasy, hopeful thinking, and wishes. They base their perceptions on the assumption that the leadership of the Islamist forces throughout the Middle East and Northern African Continent will act in a predictable manner and similarly to Western leaders, or at worst, similarly to the Soviets at the peak of the power of the USSR. The current Administration has taken on the pervasive Arabist views of the State Department and also imposed this view on the Military. If news should break shattering these perceptions, they still would have no moderating effect on our current policies as President Obama is not going to risk any actions between now and this coming autumn at the earliest.
The main reason for the continuing inaction vis-à-vis Iran is molded almost completely by election considerations rather than on facts. The United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently presented evidence concluding Iran is working towards Nuclear Weaponization and pursuing this in conjunction with an advanced ballistic missile program which had the production of ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) with the capability of delivering nuclear weapons anyplace on the planet. President Obama has apparently decided to gamble that the Iranians will be unable to reach their goals before the November elections. His reasoning has weighed stopping Iran and the ensuing economic consequences which would result from a Middle East on fire and oil shipments out of the area interrupted for an extended period destroying any possibility of a sustained recovery against delaying any actions until at least the middle of October so as to get a positive bounce right before the election by proving he was taking the threat of a nuclear Iran seriously and could be depended upon to defend against any threats while not causing economic severe downturn before the election is over. The only problem with the course President Obama is apparently traveling, assuming he ever plans do anything about Iran and their nuclear program, is if Iran would be able to produce a workable device before the end of September, then everything falls apart just as those so-called alarmists have predicted. Should Iran test a device before the elections, it will prove that we have waited as long as can be reasonably excused and the need for immediate action would be decisive. The problem with waiting until Iran has conducted a test of a nuclear device is twofold, first there is the possibility that Iran would have produced a number of devices testing one and having as many as three or more in reserve or secondly that Iran would test their first nuclear weapon by using it against Israel, Saudi Arabia, Europe, the American Fleet off the Iranian coasts, or even on the United States homeland using their practiced method of firing a moderate range ballistic missile off of a disguised cargo ship sitting a few miles offshore.
The one series of events which President Obama has attempted to insert his personal control over is the case where another country decides that Iran is on the cusp of having nuclear weapons and waiting would be suicide. The main concern has been suspicions that Israel would take military steps to destroy crucial segments and locations of the Iranian nuclear program. It was President Obama’s concern of this possibility that had President Obama deploying Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey to Israel hoping to persuade Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Advisers to refrain from taking any actions on their own without first receiving permission from the White House. This effort had somewhat less than hoped results as Gen. Martin Dempsey was told that Israel was not going to ask the United States approval and would act as they saw necessitated. Gen. Martin Dempsey was further informed that Israel refused to coordinate any actions against Iran with the United States and that President Obama could expect whatever he wished, but Prime Minister Netanyahu and those members of his cabinet who met with the General should inform President Obama that they would give the President at most a twelve hours’ notice, if any. This was as much a rebuke as conceivably possible and implies that Israel may not fully trust President Obama not to attempt to preempt any Israeli action if given sufficient notice. I would like to think that this was not an accurate assessment. Definitely would like to believe; but know deep in my gut that it not only is likely that President Obama would submarine any Israeli efforts to act against the Iranian leadership and/or nuclear program, but is virtually guaranteed that President Obama would immediately either inform the Iranians directly or make a statement to the world media revealing the Israeli plans. Prime Minister Netanyahu could always inform President Obama that the planes were already en route and then observe the Iranian response which would aid in making the actual plans if Israel was planning a strike. The Israelis wouldn’t do that, would they?
Beyond the Cusp
