We have been hearing from officials from the Obama Administration just as we did from the Bush Administration that all options are on the table concerning the Iranian Nuclear Program. Right from the top I wish to make clear that blame for the inaction by the United States towards the potential Iranian threat, should they be allowed to produce nuclear weapons, falls just as hard on President Bush as it does on President Obama. My reasoning is that if President Bush even had the slightest glimmer of a hint that the incoming Obama Administration would take no actions preventing an Iranian Nuclear weapon, then it was completely upon his shoulders to have taken action before he left office. Currently, though, all blame now rests with President Obama as he is the sole person empowered to address this issue as it currently stands. From what we have observed, the military option is still sitting on the table while the sanctions placed on Iran are increased one minimal increment after another. The problem with this use of sanctions is we are slowly bringing the water to a boil on the frog in the pot. By ramping up in as measured amount of steps each new set of sanctions does not feel all that more restrictive than the last. Granted, when all these steps are considered as a whole, the sanctions are relatively severe, but since they have stepped up slowly and consistently over a long stretch of time, their bite has not had that pounding effect one usually wishes to impart using sanctions. What has been necessary for quite some time has been a serious ramping of sanctions whose pain was unavoidably felt thus a definitive mark. Unfortunately, to reach such an effect today would take a near total sealing of the Iranian borders not allowing any land, sea, or air transport or trade. This is a nearly impossible goal. So, what is left?
According to the signals from President Obama and his Administration, the only thing left is more of the same. The theory and the plan appear to be one and the same and if the theory fails, well, there is no other plan. The safety of the world is to depend on the dulcet and irresistible charms which are the orations of President Obama with the threat of presumably severe sanctions should diplomacy fail to turn Iran away from seeking nuclear weapons and rule of the Middle East for now and the world given time. The Israelis have been told both directly and indirectly to simply stand by and wait for the sanctions to work. If Israel appears to be imminently set on actually taking concrete actions, then the sanctions will be ramped a little tighter. We have placed the final set of sanctions on Iran three or four times, it is hard to keep track as final appears to be a relative term which always allows for one more final round to be applied. It is like a bad slasher movie with a fiendish, disfigured, demonic entity which stalks the hapless victims and dies at the end but returns from the grave to make another movie of the same plot timed for release around Halloween every year. Such is the current best laid plans concerning preventing Iran from reaching their goal. In this movie we get repeats on ratcheting sanctions and Iran’s willingness for talks or IAEA inspections only to turn evil and renege on any and all promises as soon as the threats from Washington and the European Union are safely aborted. Lately we have been treated to one new wrinkle, with Israel appearing to tire of the endless and ineffective song and dance being performed between Iran and Washington. President Obama has had either Secretary of State Clinton or Secretary of Defense Panetta come out and make a statement charging that Israel is about to or will be attacking Iran by such and such a date. These announcements to the press are intended to force Israel to deny and make statements affirming their backing and willingness to continue with the plan, always, the never ending plan.
Meanwhile, the table with all the options on it that we keep hearing about has been moved to a safe location. It has been stashed in an armored vault and President Obama gave his wife Michelle the key and claimed loudly that he does not want to see the key, or the table, until after Thanksgiving. This, of course, has nothing to do with an election coming three weeks before Thanksgiving. So, this is where we sit and have been sitting for some time. The Europeans, the United States, Canada, and a few others are pretending that there are strong and crippling sanctions placed upon Iran making the leaders in Tehran very nervous and anxious and they will break any moment now. Meanwhile, Russia, China, North Korea, and to a slightly lesser extent Japan and India are all still trading with Iran. They are all buying their oil from Iran and have been allowed to use whatever currency suits them as long as it is not dollars. There are some European companies who are still honoring contracts they have made with Iran though nobody is willing to call them on this. There are other players also trading with Iran buying their oil to the point that Iran continues to pump oil as fast as they ever did and are easily selling the bulk of that oil. Also proceeding without any regard to President Obama and his Administration are Iraq and Afghanistan who are cozying up to Iran and making mutual deals and promises as they are waving good bye to the leaving American troops. What a great plan we have to prevent Iran from making progress on their nuclear program. Listen carefully and you can hear the Ayatollahs laughing hysterically as they throw darts at a targeted picture of President Obama.
Eventually one of two outcomes will have to happen. Either Israel will take their best effort to end, at least for the time being, the Iranian nuclear program or somebody will be the test subject of Iran’s first half dozen nukes and the associated EMP and then it all goes dark as the world plunges into what may very well be the end of civilization as we have come to know it. As I have been saying, what a great plan we have going.
Beyond the Cusp