You might have heard that the leadership of Iran is reasonable, logical and will act reasonably and in a predictable manner. The root of this position appears to have begun with the Obama Administration or possibly from somebody out of the European Union. Where it started is not really as important as is the fact that it has entered the echo chamber and is now being treated as accepted wisdom. In truth, I would agree with this assessment but not in the way it is being implied. Iran is totally logical as long as one factors in their motivational sources, the factual basis they use as their filter in judgments, and how they define the terms which you and they are using, especially if these terms have different meanings to the Iranians as they do to those of us in the United States and the rest of Western Civilization. This becomes important as Iran may be on the cusp of a period of expansionism with the end result being the formation of a New Persian Empire initially controlling the oil regions of the near Middle East and eventually as the leader of the new Caliphate and finally the final Islamic World all with Tehran as its capital. I wish to discuss simply the initial aim of controlling all of the Middle East oil and what this will mean for the United States.
Iran’s Central News Agency reported about a letter sent to the head of the Security Council claiming Abu Musa, the Greater Tunbs and the Lesser Tunbs, three islands in the Persian Gulf just past the entrance to the Straits of Hormuz are historically part of Iran. This was committed on response to the recent letter of protest submitted to the Security Council by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia criticizing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s visit to Abu Musa last week. This very well could reignite the smoldering conflict between Iran and the United Arab Emirates over to whom these islands belong and might easily expand to other islands inside the Straits of Hormuz which are claimed by both Iran and Oman. Iran has rattled their sabers over the alignment of these islands every so often but they have not visited them in quite some time. This may be an intentional instigation in order to push a confrontation though it is doubtful they would allow it to escalate into open warfare, at least not yet. This latest dust-up is most likely just serving as a little unfriendly reminder that Iran contests the ownership of these fairly strategic islands.
Where most will probably dismiss this as simply Iran making much noise and fury which in the end will signify nothing out of the ordinary, I have this feeling deep down that this time will prove different in the not too distant future. One has to remember that Iran has actually been on an expansionist bend since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and that they declared their intent from the very outset. Since then they have established deep ties with Syria turning Syria into what can only be described as a client state under the direction of Iran. With the assistance of Syria, Iran established Hezballah which now has established themselves as the power behind the governance in Lebanon. It is also becoming evident that as the United States and their NATO allies leave Iraq, Iran is steadily moving in and enforcing their will and influence there as well. Even the nemesis of the United States, Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has reappeared on the Iraqi power scene and has been gaining more and more influence. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have traveled between Baghdad and Tehran exchanging friendly greetings in a series of meetings. The same has been true with Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but that friendship has cooled slightly of late as Turkey does not appear ready to play second fiddle to Iran.
We need to also add the suspected Iranian influence of some of the uprisings which were part of last year’s Arab Spring. In particular, Iran was accused largely by Saudi Arabia of instigating Shiite uprisings in Bahrain which resulted in necessitating Saudi Arabia to militarily intervene to protect the reigning monarch, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa. This was subsequent to the mobilization of both military and police in force by the family Saud to impose obvious overwhelming force in order to prevent even the slightest beginning of a revolution during the Arab Spring. These forces were deployed throughout the northeastern areas of Saudi Arabia where the majority of Shiite Muslims reside. They concentrated them near the Shiite Mosques where their presence successfully intimidated anyone even considering starting unrest thus ending any revolt before it could begin. The potential of an uprising by the Shiite population in northeastern Saudi Arabia was presumably traced implying an Iranian influence according to the Saudi rulers. Iran, needless to say, denied having any connection to the unrest in Bahrain or the squelched plans in Saudi Arabia. The accusations died off once the unrest ended.
Still, it is no secret that Iran would dearly love to gain possession of the Shiite areas of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and the oil fields located in these areas. There is one overriding problem with any Iranian strategies for taking control of these areas, the United States. The United States, despite recent apparent differences between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, also stands in the way of any Iranian thoughts for destroying the Zionist Entity. In almost every avenue which the Iranian Ayatollahs seek to press an Iranian influence has this same problem, the probability of opposition by the United States. This just might be much of the reason that every Friday after religious services let out from the Mosques that they hold rallies where they chant “Death to America” along with “Death to Israel”. The order of this chant has some relevance to the order in which the Iranians will plan their attacks. The problem for Iran in every single one of their expansionist dreams as well as their genocidal intents towards Israel is the military and nuclear umbrellas proffered by the United States over almost all of these targets, especially Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) members. This is the reason that the first target which will announce to the world that Iran has decided their time has arrived to strike out and take their proper and deserved place as the leaders of the new Islamic World will be an all-out attack on the United States, their main nemesis. Their plan will be a devastating knockout attack with their newly acquired nuclear weapons very likely in a combined EMP strike to destroy the power grid and as much of American technology as possible in parallel with nuclear attacks against at the very least New York and Washington DC in order to decapitate all of our governmental and business headquarters and most important people. Whether or not they also use nuclear weapons on other cities will depend on the number of such weapons in their arsenal. These attacks will be coordinated with their Hezballah agents who they will have already placed in tactical areas to implement further debilitating attacks in areas Iran will be unable to directly strike. What follows will be of little concern to the people of the United States; they will have much more serious problems to face. Most likely the next strike will be the oil fields of their neighbors as once they control the oil they will control the rest of the world’s economic health using oil as a means to their ends.
Beyond the Cusp