Ask almost any of the people who claim to know what is coming next and they will regale you with all the various scenarios of an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear sites and the ensuing regional war or other results. All the so-called professional know-it-alls are blinded against anything beyond Israel going rogue and without consulting anybody, including and especially the United States and any others who might possibly be on the receiving end of some of the repercussions and retaliations which Iran would likely pursue. All of their scenarios ignore anything outside of a laser focus on Iran which blinds them to the growing violence already quite advanced in day-to-day events in much of Israel.
They are ignoring the daily carjacking attempts which threaten to result in the death of any Israeli driving past where these gangs operate. They ignore daily assaults on motorists driving near many of the Palestinian neighborhoods on their daily routes where they may have rocks, some of very large size, raining down on their vehicle often resulting in broken glass in addition to sizeable dents. Some of these attacks have proven fatal but are usually dismissed as much as possible by the authorities who are loath to investigate. They miss the Arab attempts, often with the assistance of the Civil Administration, to take possession of land belonging to Jewish residents in Judea and Samaria. They miss attacks on crops and sometimes upon the homes and residents of the Jewish neighborhoods and farms in Judea and Samaria. The attacks and thefts which occur daily within the green line to Jewish farmers in central and northern Israel and the Bedouin attempts to take possession of lands in the Negev regardless of ownership. They ignore all the violence which has been growing at measurable and alarming rates within the areas under Israeli control.
They ignore the slow increase in the median level of rocket and mortar attacks originating in Gaza and lately also from the Sinai Peninsula. They ignore the increasing number of attempts to shoot or otherwise ambush IDF patrols along the Gaza and Lebanon borders. Even the beginning of the use of roadside bombs and IEDs which have been incorporated into the range of attacks against the IDF patrols are now a part of the Gaza attacks against IDF patrols. Then there has been the latest added front which some blame upon the failure of the Egyptian interim military government’s inability or total lack of desire for keeping order in the Sinai. When the lack of any law enforcement is coupled with the removal of any revenues from their usual means of guiding tourists and other related tourism incomes, the Sinai Bedouins have been driven to find alternate income which Hamas and al-Qaeda terrorists were more than happy to provide. Now the previously peaceable Bedouins who avoided any alignment with the violence or with strident Islam have now appeared to become radicalized and are taking full advantage of making a living supplying arms and other goods for the tunnels into Gaza and in assisting Hamas, al-Qaeda and other terrorists in their attacks on Israel and, as was evident last week, even Egyptian personnel. No matter which direction one cares to sample, violence from Islamic fronts has been radically increasing over the last decade with a definitive uptick in the rate of increase in the past couple of years. The rate has escalated even faster in the last six months and is approaching a tipping point which is actually ahead of the Iranian progress towards a nuclear weapon.
It is quite likely that the increased level of antagonism by terror outlets, especially those in Lebanon, Gaza, and the Sinai could very well be in part due to requests from the Iranians to act as a means of keeping Israel tied down protecting the home-front from the terror assaults and thus unable to also make an attack upon the Iranian nuclear facilities. This does not explain the increased violence being wrought inside and beyond the Green Line which are often controlled by the military arms of Fatah under Mahmoud Abbas leadership. Much of this can be directly tied to increased activity which is encouraged and often financed by leftist sources, many of which are from Europe with some even financed by European governments, the same European governments who are in the midst of financial meltdown yet still finding funds to finance attacks upon Jews and Israel. All of these varied fronts come together to form an effective assault upon Israel and are likely to force a response if the increased levels continue for much longer. This too may be part of the overall intent of the forces allied against Israel.
Some might ask for an explanation on why all the discussion and noise emanating from Israel concerning an attack on the Iranian nuclear sites. Well, first we need to identify the sources of much of the noise. Where Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister have made comments, most of which were either denial of any intent to attack Iran or simply stating that Israel is capable and ready to defend herself from any attack or threat, and have held from any commitment from committing to an attack or denying such. This is the obvious tact for any leader to take in order to not divulge any useable information to those oppositional forces. Secrecy itself is also a weapon of any political conflict and even war is, when viewed analytically, a political conflict of the highest order. Much of the rest of the noise about an Israeli unilateral attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities has come from other sources mostly decrying Netanyahu and Barak over their presumed desire to attack Iran, by themselves if necessary. Prime Minister Netanyahu could hold a primetime press conference and definitively declare that Israel has absolutely no intention of attacking Iran before the P5+1 negotiations have played out completely and a coalition of countries is assembled to make such an attack and you would see weeks of conjecture and hypothesizing on how soon and by what means Netanyahu’s announcement implied an imminent Israeli attack. And at the end of that time the liberal leftist press would pummel and castigate the Prime Minister and Defense Minister over having been endlessly making threatening noises about an imminent Iranian attack. The truth be told, the time to become apprehensive over the imminence of an Israeli action against the Iranian nuclear facilities will be when you hear absolutely nothing being discussed and no threats emanating from any front, then one would be wise to become nervous.
The most likely next actions necessitated for an Israel to respond are against the rising threats within their borders by the various terror fronts and leftist agitators. It is our hypothesis that the next Israeli military response to the growing terror threats and violence will be taken once the level of such reaches a level beyond the level which any sane and reasonable observer would be able to determine was acceptable. It will be triggered by a heinous assault or event and only the most virulent anti-Semites and anti-Zionists would be able to criticize the actions. This action will be one of totality and likely followed by Israel dissolving their cooperation with anything related to Oslo, the Roadmap, the Saudi Initiative or any other proposed coexistence with the Palestinians. Israel will very likely follow this action with the deportation of the leadership of the Palestinian Authority as well as any remaining terror commanders and planners and officially annex all of Samaria and Judea. The Israeli government will more than likely offer any Palestinians who wish to voluntarily relocate to another country some form of financial encouragement which will be offered for some limited, but likely generous, period after which anybody caught committing any act of terror will be deported permanently after they serve their time in prison. Once Israel has been pushed to the point that such actions become palatable and they decide they are willing to withstand the slings and arrows which will most assuredly assail them from every government; United Nations agency, department and bureau; NGO; political activist; editorialist; and other potential do-gooder on the planet, then action will be unavoidable. We can be assured that such an action will not be taken without a willingness to withstand any assault and with the assured knowledge that by taking such action their coalition will likely not withstand the coming meteoric storm. But honestly, is it not time that this charade of forming a non-functional country named Palestine simply for the purpose of the eventual destruction of Israel as the Jewish State gone beyond any pretense that it is for any real and true humanitarian principle. Really, if it had ever been honestly about a country for some people known as the “palastinians”, the peace would have been attained and the country formed back in 1948 when the original and most generous offer was proposed and refused in order to go to war to drive the nascent Jewish State into the Sea, and that failed as has every subsequent attempt and will every future attempt. The ruse should be ended once and for ever.
Beyond the Cusp