Egypt is once again on the cusp of a civil war, one that will never be permitted to be fully born. What we have been witnessing over the past days has been the last gasps of the democracy movement in Egypt. The demonstrations were likely used by the government and the Muslim Brotherhood to identify who are the newest leaders who oppose the power-grab by President Morsi and the coming Islamist Constitution which will establish Sharia as the basis for all law in the new Egypt. After a few days of allowing the opposition of President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood free reign. We then witnessed the release of the Muslim Brotherhood enforcers who were cast as simply being President Morsi supporters. Things in Egypt will be kept from boiling over while the voting for ratification of the new Constitution is carried out. Once the Constitution has been validated by the people of Egypt, which is a given despite what some correspondents have claimed in the West, and once the Constitution is validated we will see the full force of President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood utterly close down any demonstrations against either President Morsi or the Constitution. Egypt will soon be the Sunni version of Iran with the Muslim Brotherhood providing the religious oversight of the country and those who will make up the government.
One mitigating factor is the literacy rate within the Egyptian population. The CIA Factbook reports for 2010 the literacy rate for the total population over age ten is 72% while for the male population it is 80.3% and the female population it is 63.5%. The lower the literacy rate the higher the influence of organizations like the Muslim Brotherhood or the Salafists. This likely is an indicator that over one out of every four voters will be voting most likely exactly as his Imam will tell him to vote. Combine this with the organization and large membership and influence of the Muslim Brotherhood will likely prove more than sufficient to have the Constitution as proposed validated in the vote. This will make a basically Muslim Brotherhood written Constitution the law of the land in Egypt as the majority of the democracy delegates and Coptic Christian delegates resigned from the committee claiming they were being closed out and not allowed input to the process. This left them with absolutely no input or influence and is why the Egyptian Constitution will enforce Sharia though not immediately directly. With time Sharia will be stepped up one step at a time until Egypt will have become a Sharia State with little to no rights for anybody other than the Sunni Muslims.
This new set of developments has led to exactly what we and other pessimists had predicted would be the result of the Arab Winter transformation across numerous Arab countries. We have also seen a similar result in Tunisia which is again having riots and demonstrations as the government continues to slowly enforce Sharia based laws. This is also what will replace President Assad in Syria once he has been removed from power. The actual truth is that all of the revolutions, which so many western reporters and experts predicted would result in the flowering of democracies across the Arab World, are simply replacing secular dictators with Sharia based Theological dictatorships which will rule with harsher oppression than the governments they overthrew. Put plainly, the revolutions were hijacked by the Muslim Brotherhood with assistance by the Salafists who would prefer even more strict forms of Sharia. The real problem is that the change to Sharia, Muslim Brotherhood governance is far from over and will continue to spread and will not be finished until Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) have had their monarchs replaced by Muslim Brotherhood leadership and Sharia. In time historians will look back and ask, “What were they thinking?” Unfortunately, I doubt they will be able to fathom an answer to their query.
Beyond the Cusp