Who Gets to Pick the Winner in Syria?

As the civil war continues to murder innocents with the latest estimate approaching one-hundred-thousand murdered civilians and over one and a half million refugees fled to neighboring Turkey and Jordan there is a group of nations attempting to influence who wins. The problem is that many of these outsiders are backing different forces which serve to extend the fighting possibly endlessly producing no winners, just increasing casualties in an endless procession. First we need to define the disparate groups and then find who is backing whom. The supposed home team definition would likely have to go the current President for life Bashir al-Assad and the Alawite tribe from which he comes. There are two sets that are considered rebel forces which sometimes cooperate and at other periods work either independently or actually impede each other. One rebel group consists mostly of members from the Muslim Brotherhood while the other consists of forces aligned with Jabhat al-Nusra which is the al-Qaeda terror group. Then there are two other groups which currently support Syrian President Bashir Assad but actually represent the Iranian interests and are likely to continue to engage in the war even after Assad collapses or is killed. These two groups are Hezballah, the terrorist group whose political wing currently leads the ruling coalition in Lebanon, and the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, a group of fighters which make up a second military force roughly equivalent in size, equipment, training and capabilities to the Iranian Armed Forces used mostly to assist in foreign interventions, terrorist training internationally and domestically as required, and any other clandestine operations which may be assigned by the leadership of Iran. So, generally speaking there exist five groups vying to take control over all of Syria.

 

Oddly enough getting the teams all figured out who are operating within Syria is difficult enough, but trying to untangle the external interests and influences is far more complicated especially when dissecting their various motives. Let us first address the most up front, above board and obvious of the external influences. The most obvious is Turkey who is steadily supplying arms to both rebel forces for the most selfish of reasons, assuring their continued preeminence as the only stable rout for oil and gas pipelines. There is a further reason driving Turkey in providing arms for the rebel groups which is that there is no love lost between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syria President Bashir Assad as both view themselves as a leader in some future Muslim Caliphate, Assad as leader of the Arab nations in an Iranian Caliphate and Erdogan as leader of a reborn Ottoman Caliphate. Add to this that as long as there exists some sustained level of violence which would discourage construction of new oil and gas routes through Syria then Turkey, with its already existent pipelines, would remain the uncontested and sole route of pipelines for oil and gas from the Arabian Peninsula and related reserves.

 

Another supplier of arms to one of the rebel forces is Saudi Arabia who is backing the Muslim Brotherhood aligned rebels. The Saudi interest is the opposite of Turkey as the Saudis would very much like to have an additional player supplying pipelines to the Mediterranean Sea and into Europe as competition would result in lower prices for them in transporting their oil and gas. Furthermore, the Saudis are rivals of the Iranians and thus would love to see Bashir Assad removed from ruling Syria thus breaking the Iranian crescent in which Syria is a vital link connecting Iran and Iraq through to Lebanon and the ports of the Mediterranean Sea. The Saudi Arabians are supported by the rest of the members of the GCC, Gulf Cooperation Council; whose members are of far less military capabilities thus the Saudis make all the decisions. The Saudis are also counting on support by the United States but they may run into some surprises in that relationship which we will cover later.

 

Then there are those exterior forces supporting the Syrian military and Syrian President Bashir Assad and at the same time defending the Iranian interests. These two groups are the IRGC and the Hezballah terror group. Should Bashir Assad fall either by fearing being taken by the rebel groups who would likely give him treatment similar to that used to dispatch Libyan Dictator Muammar Gaddafi, a rather unpleasant death, these two groups would simply continue the fight in support of their true masters, the Iranians. To either of these forces the continuance of Bashir Assad as the President of Syria is simply something that makes their presence in the fight more readily explainable. Remove Assad and their real motivations are revealed and Iran would be uncovered as the true force behind Assad remaining in power. Another nation supporting Bashir Assad, even if in a somewhat limited manner, is Russia and its President Vladimir Putin. Russia has thus far limited their support to continuing to fill all past weapons orders they have agreed to with Syria and are preventing any overt support for the rebels such as interventions or establishment of a no-fly zone by the United States or NATO. The most disturbing participation by the Russians is their intent to follow through with the sale and supply of their S-300 Anti-Aircraft Missile Systems which would make any Israeli strikes to prevent chemical weapons or other game-changing weapons from being transferred to the Hezballah forces in Lebanon for use against Israel in the future more hazardous. There is one potential future situation which would prove most intriguing, if President Assad should be killed or otherwise removed from the situation, would Russia continue their support giving the future weapons shipments to the IRGC and Hezballah or would their interest in the situation in Syria be terminated.

 

And then there is the most troubling foreign influence, and that is the United States and President Obama. The obvious interpretation of the United States interests is that they are aligned with Saudi Arabia and supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and against the entirety of other forces. This façade also has another participant, Turkey, who also appears to work with the Saudis while also passing weapons to their intended recipient without question. Some of these weapons are intended for Jabhat al-Nusra as they are supplied from the al-Qaeda forces and influences who were involved in Libya. There have been rumors that the truth behind the catastrophe in Benghazi may have been related to attempts to prevent powerful and game-changing weapons, possibly stinger missiles, from being sent from Libya to undesirable recipients. Even if such a proposition were true, that is one truth that will never see the light of day. As is said, some secrets are secrets for a very good reason and as such must remain nothing more than a rumor, a whisper in the tempest and nothing more.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Attacks Upon Israeli Side by Syria of Golan Heights on the Rise

The civil war raging between the three sides; those backing Bashir Assad, the Nationalist Rebels, and the Islamist Rebels; went almost two full years without a single round crossing the border to the Israeli side in the Golan Heights. Then, just a few months ago, there was a single mortar round which exploded in an open area fortunately harmlessly. It only took a couple of weeks before another mortar round strayed onto the Israeli side of the armistice lines. The next week an IDF (Israeli Defense Force) jeep came under small arms fire with slight damage being done to the Jeep and luckily no soldiers being injured. The sporadic straying of weapons fire from single bullet shots to machine gun fire, from a single mortar round to a half dozen mortar and artillery rounds, from what could be ignored as accidental stray shots to what is beginning to resemble intermittent organized attacks.

Things began to pose a more ominous nature ever since a squad of Rebel forces posted pictures and a video of them situated within the neutral zone with an IDF Jeep passing behind within a short distance patrolling the armistice lines. Then a group of the Syrian Rebels captured and held twenty-one United Nations Philippine peacekeepers that were released after a few tense days of negotiations. Intelligence sources have discovered that some elements from the Syrian Rebel forces have been seeking information including maps, troop positions, scheduled patrolling and other details which could be used to plan actions against IDF troops on the Israeli side of the Golan Heights. The Syrian Rebels stationed near the armistice lines in the Golan Heights region have already proven to have no regard for the neutral demilitarized zones which they have violated numerous times in the past month or so. The media has mostly ignored reporting most of these actions and there has been almost no mention which has combined these attacks while also noting the slowly escalating occurrences of these attacks. When looking at the slowly building events and taking in mind the attempts by Syrian Rebel forces to gain intelligence about the IDF troops stationed near the border one can only draw one conclusion, a confrontation is beginning to appear imminent. This is even further evidenced by recent threats of attacks to soon be implemented against the Israeli side of the armistice lines by Syrian Rebel groups.

Should the Syrian Rebels cross the border attacking IDF troops or Israeli villages, towns, kibbutzim or vineyards forcing an Israeli military response, what will be the reaction of the rest of the world, particularly the many groups which take great efforts to condemn every Israeli action even if done in defense of actual attacks? This is why the near blackout in coverage in the Syrian Rebels and possibly Syrian Army having slowly increased their attacks across the demilitarized area into Israeli held land is so dangerous. The lack of coverage of these offenses is similar to the manner in which the media ignores the rocket terror attacks out of Gaza and the rock attacks in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) which result in the world being shocked when Israel is finally forced to respond. Then the world becomes completely unglued and denounces Israeli aggressions and many of the public believe these fallacious charges of Israeli aggression as there is no context which covers the buildup of attacks to which Israel is actually responding and not initiating the violence. This is one of the most prevalent cases of propaganda and censorship by omissions. If the media simply never covers the aggressions against Israeli civilians or IDF positions and also ignores presenting the history leading up to Israeli responses and only reports that the Palestinians or, in this case, the Syrian Rebel forces are actually responding to the Israeli attacks, then it becomes easier for those defaming Israel to also misrepresent the situation and gain credibility when demanding sanctions and condemnations of Israel. Supporters of Israel need to make sure that these attacks emanating from Syria, whether they be from either Rebel forces or the Syrian Military, are reported and get into the public eye so should an Israeli response become necessitated the world will not be misled into the belief that Israel is the aggressor. This is a call for supporters of Israel and those who support the truth to write letters to the editor, posts to Facebook, Tweets and other media outlets informing of any Syrian attacks, especially if an actual article can be sourced. Actions taken now will pay dividends and relieve supporters of Israel of having to face an uphill battle against the anti-Zionist, anti-Semitic, and anti-Israel forces. The truth must be made apparent or the lies will rule the argument and Israel loses.

Beyond the Cusp

Give Egypt Credit as Credit is Due and Blame to Where it is Due

The United Nations released a statement expressing great concern over the immense volume of weapons being illegally transferred from Libya into both Syria and Gaza. It is about time that some oversight agency, department, public official, world leader, or international organization finally took notice of a problem which has been thus far addressed by Israel and Egypt virtually alone. The United States, while not making any pronouncements warning of this danger, they did at least request the new Egyptian leadership take steps to intercede and take steps to confiscate these shipments should they cross Egyptian areas of jurisdiction or influence. But on the other side of this problem we actually find the United States and their NATO allies were complicit in this illegal transfers of weapons by providing these weapons to the Libyan rebels in the first place as well as not taking any steps to prevent the distribution of the massive stores of Libyan weapons which had been procured mostly from the Soviet Union by Gaddafi over the years he was in power. The real problems are the agents who are on the receiving end of these weapons transfers. In Gaza the recipients are al Qaeda in Gaza, Islamic Jihad, the Salafists and other terror families and entities. It is not clear whether or not Hamas has been the recipient of these weapons as they seem to be destined to reach terror entities even more extreme than Hamas. In Syria the weapons have been transferred to the terror wings of the rebels forces mostly those fighting under the Syrian Al Nusra Front which was recently confirmed by al Qaeda to be their armed resistance within Syria.

The reasons for concern are the types of weapons being transferred which include such items as portable air defense systems, mines, explosive materials, tons of ammunition and small arms. The United Nations report confirmed that “Libya has over the past two years become a significant and attractive source of weaponry in the region. The lack of an effective security system remains one of the primary obstacles to securing military materiel and controlling the borders.” Some of the arms are finding their way through Turkey while other are being directly sent into Syria. The weapons destined for Gaza are being smuggled through the tunnel systems linking Gaza with the Sinai Peninsula. It has been these particular weapons transfers which Egypt has been most crucial in preventing. Still, some intelligence reports have expressed concerns that some of the more sophisticated weapons systems as well as some larger weapons systems have made it into Gaza despite the Egyptian efforts to prevent such deliveries.

The reality is that these weapons will be distributed by numerous terror entities to their fellow terrorist entities throughout the world which will greatly increase the potential for diverse types of attacks. The antiaircraft systems could pose a critical problem for civilian air traffic once such systems are smuggled and distributed to terror cells throughout the world. This problem will only increase should Syrian President Bashir Assad fall with the Al Nusra Front of the Syrian rebel forces prove the dominant influence in whatever governance forms. Such an outcome would also provide al Qaeda with a safe country in which to set up training camps and store weapons and other materials for future use in executing ever more serious mass terror attacks. The real question has to be asked of why was this allowed to come to pass and who dropped the ball on securing the Libyan weapons stores. Since NATO, for the most part, was the main party supporting the various rebel groups, they must be held responsible for not taking the necessary steps to secure these weapons stores. This would have probably required a far more active participation of the United States as the only country with sufficient capabilities to guarantee a comprehensive interdiction. Unfortunately this would require the United States to lead from the front and not from behind.

It was not mentioned in the report but it also likely that many of these weapons are drifting south into Mali and Nigeria to the Islamic revolutionaries who are attempting to transform these two nations into Islamic states. The real and full extent of the damages caused by the international distribution of these extremely dangerous weapons will never be fully disclosed. The reason that such information will remain undisclosed is that those who should have taken responsibility for securing these weapons will work to assure that such information is squelched. There may have been an attempt to control these weapons and possibly even turn off the spigot but that effort turned out very poorly. That is another reason that very little if any information will ever see the light of day about the scope and range of weapons which are now being distributed to terror outfits possibly throughout the world. This may have been exactly the mission which sent the United States Ambassador to Libya Chris Stevens to Benghazi where he was murdered along with four other Americans on September 11, 2012. That alone would make it even less likely that the full story will ever be divulged, at least not in our lifetimes.

Beyond the Cusp