Do You Love Big Brother Yet?

If you are among those who do not believe that the Federal Government has not achieved the equivalence of the Big Brother qualities from George Orwell’s book “1984”, then you probably disagree with Tea Party conservatives, not that that is necessarily wrong. It is very likely that most Tea Party chapters would probably disinvite me from their membership within a year if I were to join one of their chapters. That aside, the scandals currently demanding front page top of the fold coverage really does resemble themes from 1984 with a small flavoring of Aldous Huxley’s book “Brave New World” included. Exhibit one is the new National Security Agency (NSA) data storage complex that recently held its official ribbon cutting and was proclaimed open for business. Of course for the NSA’s meaning of open for business means that all your information is allowed in but can never leave while you may not get in or even approach the complex. This data storage complex is claimed to be capable of storing every email, instant message, Facebook post, Twitter message, phone call (cell or landline), search engine returns on your searches,  and all other electronic communication everywhere in the world in real time for the next century and beyond. Do you remember in the late 1980s and early 1990s when there were people whispering in hushed tones of the conspiracy that was listening in on everybody’s phone calls and later on monitoring all Internet traffic named Echelon? Well, that turned out to be valid paranoia as Echelon actually did exist but became obsolete before the middle of the first decade of the twenty-first century, thus the Echelon replacement that has probably been on line for the past couple of years even if it was just completed. There is no reason that the front end could not have been being fed all of our data while the back two-thirds were being installed. Presumably, this new Echelon on steroids complex is not only capable of monitoring and recording every electronic communication across the globe, it can theoretically even monitor your every keystroke as long as your computer is connected to the Internet including the backspace key, so they will know what you send in a message and what you rethought and deleted.

 

As this is discussed and everybody gets to add their two cents worth and the rumors and suspicions expand to the point that paranoia seems to have taken hold of everybody’s imagination, we still may not be capable of uncovering all the myriad of abilities these monitor gathering systems will actually possess. I remember the early days when the rumors of Echelon were the buzz of the conspiracy minded and it was otherwise being debunked as all in the imagination of a paranoid few. Within the decade we found out that the paranoid few were actually the well informed. So, taking that into consideration, I might tend to give credence to much of the most extraordinary theories that I hear. Why not as it can only serve to give me reason to be as careful as I can in sharing. Of course blogging is not exactly the best way to keep your head down, but at least I will not be owning the newest game systems with the camera and on-line links. Between monitoring computers and phones, using cell phones and anti-jacking car systems as GPS locators to track our movements, anything with a camera or microphone to monitor video and listen to our conversations, drilling our children through psychological testing, smart meters and appliances, networked cameras with face recognition software everywhere in public, along with whatever else their tiny little minds can invent to follow, monitor, categorize, analyze, and eventually predict future actions, why get all worked up as the Government will do what Government will do and there is little we can do to prevent them. I would rather know what they are doing than have them do everything serendipitously. Do I approve or like the idea of being under the proverbial microscope? Not really but then I have adjusted to such as after attaining ballot access for the United States House of Representatives, I have very likely been on a watch list for quite some time. Truth be told, major companies have been collecting as much information as they could in order to predict purchasing habits. I realize that this data mining by the Government is far more nefarious and invasive than most would like and it would serve them best to support candidates who will actually curb and rein in the levels of invasive monitoring without a warrant.

 

The real debate concerns exactly where will the Government go with this high level of data being available? If it were just the Government it would be one thing but it is so much more. All the way back in the good old days of the Presidency of Dwight David Eisenhower (the 1950s) the President made a speech with an ominous warning that we are now finding out was quite prescient. President Eisenhower warned that the people needed to be wary of the “Military Industrial Complex” by which he meant the large companies and the Federal Government as well as State and Local Governments. President Eisenhower foresaw a future where a group of too big to refrain companies teamed with the Government in order to apply undue pressure and influence over the public and affect their lives adversely. President Eisenhower feared a future where the Government in partnership with major corporations would have such an ability to control and influence society with such an iron fist that nobody would be beyond their controlling influence and nothing would be private from the snooping and controlling interests and invasions of this out of control behemoth. The one question we all likely have foremost in our minds is, “When will we know for certain that this has gone too far?” One sign might be the availability of a channel where they have a continuous program depicting an evil entity that has been identified as public enemy number 1 and it is advisable that when things are going poorly in your life you should tune to this special channel and yell at public enemy until you feel relieved. OK, so that might be too odd even for government. Well, how about if you begin to notice at most Starbucks there are middle age and older men and women dressed in heavy clothing regardless of the weather and season sitting there endlessly nursing a mocha java mumbling something, almost a whisper. If you get too curious and stand close to one of these poor souls you can hear them repeating slowly, painfully, endlessly, “I love Big Brother.” When these people begin to appear it is too late to worry, it is even too late to run, just join them now and maybe the government will leave you alone.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Where in the World is Everything Going?

Talk with ten different supposed authorities or futurists about where the world is headed and you will get at a minimum thirty or more scenarios. One of the reasons behind this odd little phenomenon is that many of them will answer claiming the world will be either ‘A’ or possibly ‘B’ while others will simply claim it will be ‘A’ unless such and such otherwise it will be ‘not A’ just to assure that their answers are complete and guaranteed to be more accurate. Unfortunately we will likely not be much different because there are a small number of factors which will decide both the eventual near future and the pace at which an inevitable future will arrive. First off let us discuss the eventual path mankind will take with the sole proviso being that man does not self-destruct in the mean time. One of the principle observations which stand as a driving force behind the predictions from numerous futurists is Moore’s Law which noted that the number of transistors on a chip doubles every two years. There is an obvious limiting factor which will eventually cause reality to conflict with this postulate, namely that molecules and atoms of silicon and germanium, the two elements currently utilized to manufacture the wafers for ICs, have a set size and nothing will ever be made smaller than this size. Thus we know that there eventually will be an end point beyond which progress will depend on some new dimension. This point is still well into the future, so we will continue to have the capability to produce more complex, faster, more energy efficient integrated circuits which will further expand the scope and capabilities of the hardware engineers and programmers will have at their disposal and also the price and size of memory modules and devices will also continue to shrink in size while increasing in capabilities. This allows the limit of the capabilities of our systems, be they robotic, calculative, measuring, artificial intelligence or any other performance oriented components or units to similarly increase in capability limited solely by the development of software to drive them. When one also includes the possible advances in Physics, Chemistry, and to an extent also discoveries in biology, especially bioengineering, then there may even be other hard to imagine, let alone measurable, advances made. One such example would be the introduction of a truly functioning and easily programmable quantum computer. All of this simply provides a backdrop with which to measure the full extent to which progress can expand and develop in order for there to be related advances in our societies and affect our way of life.

 

One way of measuring the advancement of mankind over the ages is to formulate a chart which maps the speed it would take for somebody to go from New York to Paris and then on to Rome. In 1700 one would be talking about close to a whole year to make such a voyage. In 1800 the same voyage would take a matter of many months. By 1900 we would shorten that voyage to around six to ten weeks depending on variables. Go to 1950 and the same trip, trip now and not voyage as even the terminology would have changed, would take merely days and not even a whole week. It would be possible with some planning to complete this trip in less than two full days. Now go on this trip in 2000 and the whole thing would take a matter of hours. And today that trip is not that much quicker than it was twelve years ago but the jet aircraft we would be taking carry more people further and slightly faster on less fuel and the number of choices one has to choose from would make covering this exact trip something that could be done in hours even if one had not made plans and found such a trip required on no notice. And if we were actually measuring the fastest possible available way of covering this trip, if all one must do is cover these distances then the astronauts in the ISS (International Space Station) have been making this trip in a very short, likely under an hour, multiple times every single day for the last few years. The real point of this demonstration is that the same or a similar equation also represents the number of people who can be fed per acre of farmland. Without the advances in crops and animal raising for food such as bioengineered crops and cattle and modern fertilizers, irrigation, and just managing all the individual needs of the farm tailoring everything on an as needed basis as revealed via scans made by UAVs (Unmanned Arial Vehicles) with cameras and other high-tech sensors has increased yields even further as well as allowed herd management and tracking and finding any stray cattle which also helps to minimize losses. Without many of these advances we would have actually had much of the world starving exactly as was predicted to occur in the early seventies where it was supposed to strike us by the late seventies. Obviously, if you have been to a modern supermarket, we have sufficient food to feed the world with the only real problem being distribution and poverty. Hopefully these are problems which will soon be unpleasant memories and not problems still faced anywhere in our future world.

 

The future becoming a place of abundance and free from want is an eventuality which will come to be. Those who are pushing for it to come immediately may have their hearts in the right place, but the immediate problem is more due to politics, people, hatreds, fears, and other items from mankind’s darker side. These are the types of hurdles which will most affect whether or not our societies develop into something more altruistic and benevolent or whether malevolence, hatred and violence will continue to plague much of mankind. One of my barometers as to how the world is coping and advancing beyond its darker and more limiting inclinations is to look to Europe and gauge the level of trust, interdependency, mutual reliance, interscene violence, and general moods. Before World War I the levels of cooperation, unity, interdependence, and peace were virtually nonexistent. The common state was one of aggression, violence, distrust, and lacking in most areas of cooperation. After World War I Europe entered a brief period of relative calm with one troublesome situation which was of their own designs. The imposition of overly harsh punishments placed on Germany was the eventual cause of the nationalistic militarism which came with the rise of Hitler and the Nazis. This led directly to World War II and all the great conflagrations from Europe all the way to the Pacific Ocean. Granted, all of the violence did not directly result from Germany and a large portion was caused by Japan, but the Eurocentric violence was caused fairly directly by Germany. Since World War II and especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union and their satellite governments, Europe has attempted and succeeded until recently in generating large amounts of cooperation between most of the European nations. Due to some nations’ internal political structures and cultures having a more expansive societal security net which allowed for what was a heavily dependent citizenry by comparison with the countries with a stronger work ethic and laws with less generous benefits offered governmental economic stabilities radically differed under pressure. This has led to recent problems as these differences were magnified by the recent worldwide economic problems. This now stands ready to tear at most of the cooperative financial agreements which are the skeletal structure that supports the body of the European Union. If the world economy does not pick up steam and become more vigorous, then it is more likely that these problems between the separate nations of the European Union will only grow worse and eventually destroy the EU. Once that eventuality takes place we can expect Europe to return to the natural tendencies which have plagued Europe for centuries. The then almost unavoidable and inevitable conflagration will begin with strong nationalist themes forming amongst the unemployed and least wealthy who will be unable to afford a decent standard of living and likely find their families hungry and under threats caused by fiscal problems resulting from high inflation making the currencies worthless. This will be the result of these countries being expelled from the EU and no longer allowed to use the Euro as their currency and their former currency will lose value against the Euro until it reaches a stable level of worth. This will isolate each of these countries as their currency will be so devalued against the Euro that they will be unable to afford anything imported and will be completely reliant on domestic goods. The other side of the problem is the domestic goods will garner a higher price if exported rather than sold domestically and the outside world will be able to buy virtually anything and everything produced within the newly EU outcast nations. Eventually such trade will bring these countries’ economies back to health provided that none of them decide that war would be a faster route to recover their lost economic stability. European history has shown that during economic upheavals the populations tend to turn xenophobic and nationalistic while also favoring militarism. This had kept Europe in a near constant state of wars for centuries and the world may see this return. If that occurs, then who knows what will result.

 

The other threat to a promising future of technical genius and great developments will be the less developed nations who are now at the cusp of nuclear abilities.  Almost any nation which wishes to invest in the development of nuclear weaponry will have the technical ability to do so and would only be limited by lack of natural resources. Obviously, lack of natural resources is simply a matter of purchasing power and the wherewithal to open clandestine trading to acquire the uranium or other fissile materials. If North Korea can find the available resources necessary to manufacture a nuclear weapon under the sanctions and embargoes placed on them, then any nation has the capability of gathering the tools, expertise, and other materials to do the same. The development of a sufficient ability in rocket development to design a relatively efficient and able rocket delivery system would also not pose an insurmountable problem. Such a spread of nuclear weapons giving a number of countries possession of deliverable nuclear weapons stores and their not having the relative inhibitions, which almost if not all the current nuclear powers possess against using such weapons, then without such cautions they might be tempted more easily into their use. Such a situation could very easily escalate and eventually cause widespread devastation on a scale never before witnessed. This is another scenario which would at best delay a technical age of plenty and permanent lack of want which could lead to an end of mankind’s violence against his fellow men. That is the race we face, which comes first, all of mankind attaining a level of technical advances and improvements which remove any areas of serious want and mankind entering a new era or mankind falling prey to our evil and darker side and causing an end to any society, not just our advanced society. This race is one where the first nations who cross the line which divides human society from their warlike past into a pacifistic future cannot simply continue on as if everything is just fine waiting for the rest of the world to reach a similar point of development. Upon attaining such advancement they would be best served to do whatever was necessary in order to speed the rest of mankind enabling them to also reach such a point. Unfortunately, changing their societal norms will take far more than simple technological advancement, it will take sociological advancement, something almost as intangible as a wisp of smoke and just as easily brushed aside by the slightest waves of violence. So, which will win? Sorry, you are going to have to tell me as I have my fears and hopes but no knowledge which will triumph in the end.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Iran, Nuclear Weapons, the West, Israel, and Taqiyya

Much of the conjecture we are hearing coming from the P5+1 (Five Permanent Security Council Members United States, Russia, China, England, and France plus Germany) negotiations with Iran over the Iranian nuclear program has been very troubling. There have been mentions that the fact that the Ayatollah Khamenei issued a fatwa classifying the manufacture, possession or use of nuclear weapons by an Islamic entity to be a grave sin. According the United States State Department this has to be taken into consideration when addressing the Iranian nuclear program. This fatwa by the Iranian Supreme Leader must be regarded as a validation of the peaceful intent of the Iranians and as a strong indicator that it is impossible for Iran to pursue nuclear weapons while he remains their Supreme Leader. They attribute their certainty to the power of this fatwa to their deep respect and understanding of Islam, the Koran, Sharia and all aspects of Muslim life, politics, and religious influences. Well, there is another not so insignificant aspect of Islamic law, namely taqiyya. Taqiyya is the allowance, almost a commandment and not merely suggestion, for Muslims to lie to non-Muslims especially if it will further the spread of Islam. Just possibly this would allow for an Islamic cleric, such as the Iranian Supreme Leader, to issue a fatwa which is invalid and intended to serve the purpose of concealing actions forbidden by this false fatwa. Do you think perhaps the State Department might wish to include consideration that just possibly the Ayatollah Khamenei might have been issuing something more along the lines of taqiyya in the form of a fatwa? Perhaps that might be a good idea.

So far the negotiations with Iran have led to absolutely no discernible modification in Iranian work towards reaching nuclear weapons capability. The sole lull in their drive came in response to the remarkably quick and easy defeat of their neighbor’s military during the second Iraq war which removed Saddam Hussein from leadership in Iraq. This short stall of their program as they waited to see who was next on the American list after Iraq lasted less than six months, or so intelligence has reported. We might remember the Libyan reaction to this same event when they surrendered their entire nuclear research and stockpiles and opened up their country to full inspections by the IAEA. Outside of that blip in the graph, Iranian efforts in both missile research and development and drive for nuclear weapons has steadily gained ground meeting one requirement after another on their path to having ballistic nuclear tipped weapons, also referred to as a deliverable nuclear weapon. Currently the missile technology of the Iranians has progressed from inaccurate medium range rockets to programmable targeted missiles with two-thousand mile range which is classified as ballistic missiles, their next achievement will likely be intercontinental ballistic missiles, something they have displayed being near to achieving with the launches of orbital satellites. But not to worry, their Supreme Leader issued a fatwa likely aimed at the West as taqiyya, but he did issue that fatwa.

Meanwhile, the Iranians have been refusing to actually meet any of the demands or requests by the West and only giving platitudes and promises to the United Nations, IAEA and the P5+1 by agreeing and even signing on to agreements and arrangements while having no tangible intents to actually honor their stated concessions. Despite the Iranian lack of honest dealings, the latest approach of the P5+1 has been to modify their demands to allow Iran to continue to enrich Uranium but only to a level of three and a half percent and to forgo their program which has produced uranium to twenty percent enrichment. They are also requesting that Iran release all of their stockpiles of twenty percent uranium and rely on foreign suppliers to provide nuclear material for medical usage. Iran has bristled at this suggestion and is demanding they retain their right to enrich uranium to whatever levels their requirements demand which would include the twenty percent level for medical use. The fact that assessments by specialists that Iran has produced twenty percent uranium well in excess of any amounts required even using the most generous of assessments does not appear to have any relevance to either side of the deliberations. Iran is seeking and the P5+1 may actually be considering that sanctions on Iranian petroleum assets and their banking systems be relieved or completely removed in return for Iran agreeing to sign to allowing full inspections by the IAEA of all nuclear sites. Of course this would only apply to those sites which have been identified and not those sites which Iran has been able to keep from disclosure or discovery.

So, how does Israel fit into all of these machinations? The main concern towards Israel has been mentioned by or implied by the Obama Administration, the European Union, particularly their foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, and others from within the governments of the P5+1 has been preventing any military actions against the Iranian nuclear sites. The efforts to prevent Israeli actions have gone as far as revealing any plans or preliminary steps Israel may take in preparation for executing such missions. There have been leaks mostly from the American White House, though not traceable directly to President Obama yet, which have labeled numerous IAF training exercises as preparations for an Iranian strike, revealed the potential that the Israeli purchase of two decommissioned airfields in Azerbaijan located north of Iran and considerably closer to Iran could be used as a jumping off point or a refuel and emergency platform supporting an Iran strike, and releases and inferences of the extent of Israeli intelligence operations concerning the Iranian nuclear programs. It might be claimed that many in the P5+1 are more concerned with preventing Israeli military actions more than they care to prevent Iran becoming a nuclear armed nation. Yet, these are also the same forces which are insisting that Israel trust that they have protecting Israel from the threatened nuclear attacks by Iran as one of their primary reason d’etre. With their track record, who could blame Israel if they chose not to share information or their intents with even those claiming to be their friends and allies after such treatment of their efforts?

The real problem has become the fact that only one side has shown any willingness to compromise, though both sides have shown movement in their positions. The P5+1 held an original position that Iran had to surrender all uranium enrichment; all stockpiles of enriched uranium; rely on foreign supply of fuel rods for their reactors; surrender spent fuel rods in exchange for replacements; rely on foreign supply of all medical usage of nuclear elements; close permanently the Natanz facilities; open all sites including releasing the names and locations of all nuclear related and rocket research sites; and had yet to learn of the Furdow installations outside Qom or known of the high explosive research at an Iranian military facility. The P5+1 have modified their requests, downgraded from demands, that Iran cease enrichment beyond three and a half percent, surrender all stockpiles of twenty percent enriched uranium, the closure of the Furdow facilities, surrender all uranium enriched beyond three and a half percent, allow inspections of all known nuclear sites, and in return the P5+1 will permit the continued enrichment of uranium at Natanz to three and a half percent, manufacture of their own fuel rods, freedom to build additional reactors, Iran to oversee the decommissioned fuel rods, and no longer making demands on the missile or high explosive research carried out by the Iranian military usually by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. While the P5+1 have taken significant strides towards surrendering to Iranian demands, the Iranians have moved the goalposts further down the field by demanding not only enrichment to levels for use in their power generation reactors but also to levels for medical usage which would allow enrichment to twenty percent instead of only three and a half percent and have insisted that their research into missiles and explosives is not to be the concern of any foreign interest and thus must be allowed.

There is good reason as to why there are requests that Iran surrender enrichment to twenty percent and to limit them to only three and a half percent. To enrich uranium to the over ninety percent necessary for weaponizing takes significantly less effort and thus less time when starting with twenty percent enriched uranium. The difference is measured in months, not day or hours. It would take under six weeks for Iran to reach the needed amount of enriched uranium from twenty percent stock while it would likely take a minimum of four and as long as six months or even more to reach the same conditions for a weapon starting with three and a half percent enrichment as the starting level. The measurable additional time would also make it much easier for intelligence efforts to discover an Iranian move towards nuclear weapons which makes it all the more difficult. The intent is presumably to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, not just aiming to know when they have done so. This prevention is made easier the more Iran is restricted in enrichment procedures making none the most preferable amount. If Iran were forced to totally stop uranium enrichment, then all that would need to be detected would be the use of the specialized centrifuges which have telltale measurable properties. By permitting enrichment to any level would make it more difficult to detect Iran breaking the agreements as inspections would be necessary to detect even traces of higher enriched uranium. Requiring total disclosure and full inspections, including surprise unannounced spot inspections, along with permitting inspectors to inspect any or all military installations to check for any covert nuclear work, thus making the discovery of the unknown nuclear facilities would make efforts to prevent Iran reaching the breakout point far more difficult if not impossible. With the beginning of a slide away from their initial demands and weakening the requirements of Iran is not a good indicator of the resolve to prevent a nuclear armed Iran. Perhaps observing the allowed capitulation to Iran by the P5+1 is what has driven Israel to take a more cautious and nervous approach to the whole Iranian situation. How long before the State Department geniuses decide that twenty percent enrichment and inspections of the lobby of the Tehran International Airport will be the level Iran will be required to permit? Remember the one other item in this dance, Iran does not need the world’s permission, they simply require that they gain sufficient time until they produce nuclear weaponry which then makes all negotiations a moot point. If the world, especially any of the members of the P5+1, is serious about stopping the Iranian drive for nuclear weapon capability, then they need to stop the music, end the dance, and lay down the law and commit to whatever consequence may be required to put an end to Iranian progress, anything less is simply capitulation to evil intents.

Beyond the Cusp