Hollande Wins Extremely Close French Election

Despite early predictions that Hollande would defeat Sarkozy by a comfortable margin, I had said that Sarkozy would probably win. I quickly realized I might be in trouble when later that day Marine Le Pen announced to her supporters her intent to cast a blank ballot and encouraged they do follow her lead. It was a classic case of “If I cannot have it then I refuse to play and I will take my ball and go home.” Well, that just may have been the turning point costing Sarkozy the election as the Nationalist Le Pen voters would likely have split strongly against Hollande and, by default, for Sarkozy.

The difference was much closer than anybody had predicted with 16.56 million votes for Hollande, 15.56 million votes for Sarkozy and two million casting blank ballots following the Le Pen instructions and easily changing the result in the process. All that remains now is to wait for Hollande to make all his appointments and then we will have a better idea as to whether his promises of scrapping the austerity program for a stimulus and growth program was bluster or an honest threat. Should a Hollande government actually take the route of using government spending in order to stimulate the economy then the European Union may be heading back into the deep waters of insolvency and doing so very rapidly. This election may prove very costly to far more than the European Union and the stability of the Euro, it could have ramifications well beyond Europe, especially if it leads to the crash of the Euro and each country in Europe retreating back to their native currencies. Such a necessity could also force a strain on the entire European fabric from which the European Union is cut and place the entire structure to stresses beyond its tolerance. We may have to address a world with no European Union and an immediate struggle for preeminence between France, Germany, and Britain. Europe could return to its historic and turbulent ways with each country wresting as much for itself at the expense of the rest. Will international trade suffer seriously should the trade agreements and other alliances forged by the European Union fall shattered? We may have to experience the answer to that very question.

The next election to come will be the Israeli elections which are expected to be held on September 4, 2012. This election is unlikely to produce any surprises as to the ultimate winner as Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Likud Party are predicted to breeze into victory garnering at least thirty seats. The real test in the Israeli election will be the contest for second, third, and fourth. Should Nationalist Parties gain sufficient seats that Likud can make a viable coalition clearing the sixty-one seats necessary, then the Israeli government will have a unified coalition free of obligations to some of the lesser parties for the first time in memory. What will be more likely is that Netanyahu and Likud Party and the other Nationalist Parties will fall short and need to include the Religious-Nationalists and likely the Religious Parties which will leave the coalition open to a wide set of demands any one of which could be utilized as a wedge to force early elections.

Then, come early November, the biggest election of the year, the American Presidency along with one-third of the Senate and the entire House of Representatives. This will be a contentious election with many distractions and a likelihood of violent Occupy demonstrations at either or both Party Conventions. The coming summer promises to be anything but boring between the continued Arab uprisings which may aim for Jordan first after Syria and then the countries of the GCC including Saudi Arabia, and more if the Occupy demonstrations end up breaking into violent riots. So, I guess all that is left to do is buckle-up and get ready for a wild summer roller-coaster of excitement in the public realm to rival those summer teen-movies released to your neighborhood theaters. I am not sure if I am looking forward to a summer of lots of choices for blog articles or simply scared of a summer of lots of choices for blog articles.

Beyond the Cusp

French Elections Heading for Runoff as Expected

Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande took the top spots as expected in the French elections held this weekend. This removed Marine Le Pen and her anti-immigrant platform despite a respectfully strong third-place showing garnering 19.2 percent of the vote. The front runners divided up the lion’s share of the votes with Hollande grabbing 27.9 percent of ballots while Sarkozy pocketed 26.7 percent. Far left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon took fourth with 10.8 percent as centrist Francois Bayrou snared 9.2 percent with the five remaining candidates split the remaining ballots. The future of the European Union may be riding on the result of the French election as should Sarkozy win reelection the austerity path might still remain in the realm of possible while should Hollande be the new French president the austerity programs could be facing a rejection by voters who will demand continued social giveaways without any cuts in spending. Where France is not in as deep trouble as others such as Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain, should the French voters reject even the moderate measures which may prove necessary for France, the rest of Europe could be expected to reject any candidate who even hints at making the austerity cuts and lean towards candidates promising to continue the popular but ruinous government social spending.

For our friends in the United States the titles of right and left in Europe are confusing as they have a different set of definitions than right and left do in the United States. Unlike the United States, in Europe it is pretty much a given that except for those few oddballs such as Monarchists and true Conservative Capitalists, it is readily accepted that everybody is a socialist. The differences in Europe are between the different types of socialists. The conservative right in Europe is the National Socialists while the liberal left is the International Socialists. Americans, for the most part, pretty much lump the National and International Socialists into one category, the Socialists. But in Europe this divide is well defined and the center of some of the most bitter rivalries in all of politics. It is just such a battle that will play out in two weeks in the finals of the French elections. Who wins this runoff may indicate the future of the next phase in European politics and foretell whether the more conservative of the socialists and the continued attempts at austerity will continue or will Europe once again swing the pendulum to the other extreme and install the freer spending left who rely on expanded growth to address deficits.

Unless some event turns the world economy out from its slumbers and economic growth breaks out of its doldrums, it would appear that the austerity approach might be the more responsible and promising way to address the European Union financial difficulties and dooming the free spending will produce excited economic growth leading to more inflow of funds to governments with which to pay off the debilitating debts now threatening the Euro and the European Union. This stark choice will bear close watching. From the initial round of voting we here at BTC believe that against what many have predicted, Sarkozy just might pull it out and get another term as the President of France.

Beyond the Cusp

President Obama has a Wiki-leaks Moment

Well, now we have it on the record from comments exchanged between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and the United States President Barack Obama while they mistakenly thought they were speaking in private. They had not taken off their lapel microphones used during the G-20 meetings and they also happened to still be activated allowing the entire press corps to hear the entire conversation. The initial conversation began with President Obama reprimanding President Sarkozy for not informing the Obama Administration of their intention to vote in favor of Palestinian membership in UNESCO. Towards the end of the conversation, out came the juicy tidbits which even the most favorable and supportive outlets for the President were unable to ignore, though they have given it a noble effort. The conversation of interest came as the two discussed their feelings for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu which went like this, in case you have not heard, President Sarkozy stated, “I cannot stand him. He is a liar.” President Obama, not wishing to be outdone in derogatory rhetoric, added disdainfully, “You’re fed up with him, but I have to deal with him every day!”

I wish I could say that I find this disturbing or surprising or even out of character for the President of the United States, but this is unfortunately how contemptibly the Office of the President has been regarded by many of Barack Obama’s dishonorable and shoddy actions. Many of these shortcomings have been most evident in President Obama from his dealings with those who are representatives for many of the longest and most ardent allies of the United States. The list of similar actions by President Obama is fairly extensive which not only includes numerous most of his interactions with representatives from Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu in particular, but go all the way back to President Obama’s first meeting with the British Ambassador when he insisted that he take the bust of Winston Churchill back as President Obama found it distasteful and offensive. Even should President Obama actually have honest and valid problems with the history of the British or with the history of Winston Churchill himself, then you remove the statue and place it in storage, not insult an ally of such longstanding by insisting they take back their gift as you find it offensive. Perhaps simple discretionary and polite actions are too much to expect from this President and my expectations are simply too demanding. Just as with the return of Sir Winston to the British and the previous treatment towards Netanyahu, this is just one more piece of evidence that President Obama and I have diametrically opposite views of who are truly friends of the United States.

Beyond the Cusp