Beyond the Cusp

April 19, 2014

The Latest Iranian Taqiyya

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani claimed during military parade on Friday marking the country’s National Army Day celebrations where he stated, “We are not after war, we are after logic, we are after talks. (Iran) will not invade any country but will resist any invasion.” Such statements will very likely be taken by President Obama and his administration as further proof that the talks to prevent, or at least delay, Iran becoming a nuclear armed nation and that their leadership of the P5+1 has produced results. There will be claims and commentary describing President Rouhani and his calming words as further proof of his being a moderate force and to be leading Iran back from the brink and doing what was required to return Iran from the wild and threatening positions taken under the leadership of former Iranian President Ahmadinejad to a its rightful place amongst the peace-loving nations of the world. Needless to point out that President Rouhani has in the past bragged about how he had completely hoodwinked the Western nations during his stint as the chief Iranian nuclear negotiator referring to his tactics of smiling and making small talk and making jokes thus disarming the United States and European negotiators. President Rouhani went on to point to the massive increase in the Iranian nuclear program from a mere ten centrifuges to over seventeen-thousand centrifuges and major construction on the heavy water reactor at Arak all while he was misleading the Western nations with so little effort. He was very proud of his mastery of the art of diplomatic negotiating and hiding the real activities of the Iranian nuclear program behind his affability and a smile.

 

The lauding of President Rouhani and his pleasant sounding words ignores the greater evidence of the intent of Iran to pursue nuclear weapons using basically the same method of using deception and false guarantees all the while developing their nuclear program. Their initial push under former President Ahmadinejad used a tactic of simply bull-headed driving forward despite any opposition or sanctions from the world at large. The Iranians did not alter their drive for nuclear weapons with the election of President Rouhani; they simply altered their camouflage hiding everything behind a handshake, a broad smile, and friendly familial small talk, the exact same ruse utilized by the very same Rouhani back in earlier days of the nuclear negotiations with Iran. In order to keep ahold of this illusion of Iranian cooperation and passivity the Western leadership must simultaneously take President Rouhani and his calming words of cooperation and peacefulness at face value while ignoring numerous comments, claims and even threats from other high ranking Iranians including many from the military and even from within the nuclear program itself. One such statement came in a television interview Sunday with Iran’s nuclear program chief Ali Akhbar Salehi who insisted that Iran has the right to enrich uranium to ninety percent purity. This claim would be complete evidence necessary that Iran was working towards nuclear weapons and not simply completing the fuel cycle. There does not exist a nuclear reactor that requires highly enriched uranium at ninety percent purity, such enrichment is only required to make weapons. The obvious unsuitability of uranium enriched to ninety percent is evidenced that there does not exist any way to contain a reaction once begun at such concentrations of uranium to utilize it in a reactor; thus it can only be utilized to produce an explosion in a weapon. Nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi has also commented recently that Iran will require thirty-thousands of its new generation centrifuges to meet domestic fuel demands. This comment came amid the latest talks being held in Vienna. This statement came subsequent to his recent claiming, “We unveiled a new generation of centrifuges that surprised the Westerners … This new machine is 15 times more powerful than the previous generation.”

 

In recent speeches, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei explained how the Iranians were using the nuclear talks to stall for time while they continued their drive in developing nuclear weapons. He stated quite plainly that, “We had announced previously that on certain issues, if we feel it is expedient, we would negotiate with the Satan (the United States) to deter its evil.” Ayatollah Khamenei further claimed that, “the nuclear talks showed the enmity of America against Iran, Iranians, Islam and Muslims.” Al Arabiya reports that Ayatollah Khamenei’s statements are tantamount to a confession of employing the Islamic deception tactic of “taqiyya,” the utilization of deception and outright lies in order to conceal and advance efforts to advance a situation which would serve the interests and future spread of Islam. The tactic is used to great advantage throughout Islamic history in negotiations and during states of war, two main elements being applied to their military readiness and nuclear program very effectively by Iran today. So, while the centrifuges in Iran continue to spin and leaders of all stripe, political, military and even those directly involved with their nuclear program make threats and promises of coming destructions, President Obama and the negotiating team from the Western powers continue to laud praise on President Rouhani as those among us who are of a more suspicious nature simply wait for Rouhani to slowly melt from vies leaving his Cheshire Cat ominously evil smile as the only proof he was ever there.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

October 20, 2013

Iran Using Same Old Ploy with a New Face

We just had another week of a new round of negotiations with Iran concerning their nuclear program and concerns whether it is designed to simply produce energy, as Iran claims, or working towards nuclear weapons, as Israel fears. The P5+1 (United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany) had varied claims concerning the results of these initial talks, with President Obama’s spokesman James Carney was quoted claiming these talks showed a “level of seriousness and substance that we have not seen before.” The European Union spokesman Michael Mann said, “We have come here with a sense of cautious optimism and a great sense of determination because we believe it’s really time now for tangible results.” Both of these statements indicate the optimism and hopefulness by the Western leaders to find something, anything positive on which to pin their hopes and desires to avoid any situation which might necessitate their need to take actions to prevent the Iranians from reaching the goal of nuclear weapons production. Meanwhile, the intent of the Iranians was probably best represented by their new President, Hassan Rouhani, who said Saturday that his country is pursuing “a win-win game” in its talks with the West. Additionally, President Rouhani said meeting with Giulio Haas, the new Swiss ambassador to Tehran, “I believe that during the Geneva talks, the political will of the Islamic Republic of Iran became evident to both sides.” The duplicitous meanings of his statements is as apparent as they were when similar position statements and intents were couched in diplo-double-talk where each listener is able to take from the statements either assurances or suspicions while the speaker has actually not made a definitive statement defining anything.

 

The truth of these meetings is that the main agreement they actually were able to reach was to agree to meet again in Geneva on November 7th and 8th. If anyone is able to remember, a feat that appears to be beyond many Western politicians and negotiators, back to the previous initial meetings before President Rouhani was elected and the face of Iran was President Ahmadinejad, then you will recall that at those initial meetings also ended with the Western leaders finding great hope, promise, and a “new honesty” coming from the Iranian negotiators, especially when the Iranians had appointed a new lead negotiator, and these meetings too only honestly resulted in the sides agreeing to meet again sometime in the ensuing six to eight weeks. So, we once again find ourselves at the stage of the Iranian nuclear negotiations where hope springs eternal, Iran has just outlined a new honest approach showing a real sense of sincerity and willingness to make real progress towards allying the fears that they are seeking to make nuclear weapons. They have intimated their willingness to allowing inspections at all of their nuclear sites, the end to enrichment to or above 20%, conversion of current enriched Uranium into fuel rods (a technology that many believe may be beyond Tehran’s abilities to produce), snap surprise inspections by the IAEA, and a slew of other goodies all of which were stated with the design of whetting the appetites and spurring on the hopes of the Western leaders that a new dawn was at hand. All of this has such a “Peace in our time” feeling to it that is just downright scary. I am almost expecting one of the Western lead negotiators to deplane holding a piece of paper above his head as he walks up to the waiting press and a cluster of microphones to announce the great breakthrough and the end of all suspicions over the obviously innocence of the Iranian nuclear program and the mechanisms which will assure all but the most cynical disbeliever. Whether or not they add Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s name as that disbeliever or not, we here can add Beyond the Cusp as that disbeliever.

 

These new promises and revelations of the Iranians desire for openness and an honest deal which will ally all fears is nothing new. At the November meetings the Iranians will begin backpedalling from those positions as they start to define them back away from the optimistic interpretations currently all over the press coverage and new sticking points will soon begin to appear as those same optimistic Western leaders are faced with the reality that Iran was playing chess while they were engaging in tiddlywinks. It is the same old pattern but this time instead of the contorted screaming madman face of Ahmadinejad the Iranians have the new, improved, smiling face of President Hassan Rouhani to reassure that Iran is sincere and this time is truly different. When it comes to believing such all we can say is, not so much. Let’s see what you say down the road as we have seen this song and dance before. We have all taken the pony ride of the new Iranian negotiator and this new Iranian President has very much the same old feel of that previous game. The only sane approach to this new level of excitement and expectations of a great new beginning is to honestly admit that we have all seen this before and we will judge by what the Iranians are not only willing to sign on to in an agreement but furthermore, how well they abide by those same terms when the surprise inspections begin and the enforcements of the other stipulations. But first things first, we still have a long road to traverse before we even get to the first stages of writing the actual agreements, let alone signing and implementing them. We must do as was promised by President Reagan in his arms treaty with the Soviets, “Trust but verify!” That has to be our minimal demand before we can celebrate the new Iranian attitude.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

October 17, 2013

Iran Nuclear Program Talks Resume

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The talks between the Iranians and the P5+1, which is made up of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, Russia, Britain, China, France and the United States, plus Germany, over the Iranian nuclear program and whether it aims to produce nuclear weapons or is simply for civil use such as electricity generation, medical research and other domestic energy uses resumed this week. There is a palpable level of hope and promise from the P5+1 nations that the promises and disarming nature and smile of the new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani really is an indicator of a new openness and honest forthrightness in dealings allowing full inspections of all locations of nuclear installations and related research by the United Nations IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) inspectors. The optimism being shown by the P5+1 runs directly opposite the warnings being sounded by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders who fear that the negotiations could lead to the softening of the sanctions in exchange for empty promises which sound impressive but on implementation turn out to have been hollow and accomplishing virtually nothing and changing little if anything. The mainstream media worldwide has taken to identifying any suspicions that the Iranians are seeking to attain nuclear weapons capability through their nuclear program as purely an irrational Israeli fear which has little to validate it and stands in direct opposition to any rational inspection of the Iranian intents which appear to have completely changed under President Rouhani, the man with the pleasant smile and soft, soothing words that topple all previous suspicions replacing them with a driving desire to appease and avoid any conflict. The next few days will require close inspection both of the words which are spoken, the utterings before the press, the rumors from various sources and specially announcements of intents on the sanctions as they are the true measure of the direction resulting from the talks.

 

The moods towards the Iranian nuclear program and whether the Iranians are speaking truths or veiled references in order to mislead the world and be able to hide their true intent to attain nuclear weapons ability behind a civilian use for electricity, medical utilization and other forms of nuclear research have changed rather radically since the election of President Rouhani and these trends have only become more deeply entrenched since the masterful presentation made by President Rouhani at the opening ceremonies of the United Nations General Assembly. The perception has become one where the leader of the P5+1 are more interested in finding reasons to support and believe that the Iranian representatives, like their new President, are only capable of honest brokerage and seeking a level of cooperation which would have been beyond anything previously possible when President Ahmadinejad represented Iran. The media has been overflowing with praises and exhorts telling of the openness and new honesty represented by President Rouhani and how the Iranians have turned a corner and everything in the future will need to be seen under a new set of evaluations representing this new atmosphere. This has served to increase the gulf between the views of great concern over the Iranian nuclear program held by the Israelis and the Saudis among other Middle Eastern nations and the new levels of trust being brandished with great enthusiasm by the Europeans and the United States while Russia and China remain supportive of Iran continuing to show little alarm. That leads to the question of what can the world expect going forward and where will such expectations lead us in the end.

 

We do not need to concern ourselves with the Russians and the Chinese as they will support Iran whether Iran has truly changed or if they are pursuing nuclear weapons meaning that Israel and Saudi Arabia along with those who are in their boat will see their greatest nightmares become reality if they do not act independently and possibly against the will of the rest of the world. Any such preemptive strike would most likely require coordination between two of the most unlikely partners making such an attack, a coordinated attack involving Israeli and Saudi forces even if such required carrying out such an attack against the will of and without the backing of the United States. Such a situation in its absolute worst scenario would find the United States forces including its naval fleets from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea engaging and attempting to prevent any action against Iran. Such active opposition by the United States would make any action by Israel, Saudi Arabia, and any others who would support such an attack almost completely useless and excessively costly for all involved leaving all sides gravely wounded and Iran free with backing from their allies to extend their command over the entire Middle East. Even if such a coordinated attack succeeded with its initial sorties catching everybody by surprise and thus negating any chance for interference, the damage after the first day would serve only to slow Iran’s nuclear research and production and if afterwards the United Nations, United States, or other group of consequence then challenged forcing an end then the attack would end up with damaging results as unless the attacks on the Iranian nuclear sites are permitted to span the minimum of a week, or in order to permit sufficient damage to halt the program for as much as a decade, an series of attacks spanning as long as six weeks may be necessitated. What this means is without the United States assistance and using their vast resources, any attack with conventional weapons would probably prove ineffective in preventing the Iranians from attaining nuclear weapons capability on schedule. This brings us back to what will be the results of this crucial round of negotiations.

 

Since the very beginning of United States President Obama in the negotiations and sanction on Iran over their nuclear program, the United States has been a reluctant follower, or as President Obama likes to phrase it, leading from behind. Often the European and the United States Congress have been in forefront in applying and calling for sanctions against the Iranians as long as they continued to enrich Uranium and producing Plutonium and related nuclear weapons research. Since the election of the new Iranian President Rouhani, the Europeans have given the appearance of entranced followers under a deep and dark spell causing them to become love-sick sycophants adoringly following President Rouhani. Britain has gone so far as to seek to reopen normalized relations and reestablish an embassy or at least a consulate. Furthermore, since the Iranian nuclear program has entered a period of finality where either the Iranians will be brought to end their pursuit of nuclear weaponry or they will proceed and attain nuclear weapons within a short period of time, whatever is going to be done needs to be committed with some sense urgency. Add to this President Obama’s handling of the Red Line over chemical weapons use in Syria and his complete breakdown and inability to act definitively one way or the other and we saw everything necessary to realize that President Obama has never intended to do a damn thing to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons capabilities. So, President Obama and the American military can be ruled out should a strike on Iran become an unfortunate necessity. We can forget the Europeans who have no ability or desire to enter into a conflict of such a potential magnitude. We can expect there to be some serious and concerning words and diplomatic speeches professing the serious nature of the talks and the need for the Iranians to prove their new attitude and openness. After great amounts of posturing and stalking and pacing back and forth with serious faces and grave speeches there will be an arrangement by which Iran will be given a route to legitimacy. The path will not be sufficient and far reaching enough to actually end the Iranian push resulting in a nuclear armed Iran unless there are those who are ready and willing to move to prevent Iran completing their drive to nuclear weapons without the assistance of the United States or Europe and likely against strong opposition and condemnations from the United Nations, Russia and China. All things as they now exist we will likely be facing a Middle East where initially Iran and Pakistan will be the sole nuclear powers but within a year of Iran becoming a proven nuclear state we can expect that Saudi Arabia will have gone nuclear with Turkey likely to follow soon behind with Egypt eventually joining those with nuclear weapons. There will always be the possibility that any of the oil rich sheikdoms will be able to purchase a small stockpile of nuclear weapons and be able to keep them serviced and kept up.

 

Should Israel make good on her promise to go it alone if necessary to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons then the reaction of the world has already been hinted at. Initially, if Israel continues to sound the alarm exhorting suspicions be raised and trust come solely through verification and cooperation we can expect for President Obama and the European leaders to form a chorus telling Israel that unless she has reached a peace with the Palestinian and returned the lands that the Europeans and United Nations and the rest of the world has decided was stolen by Israel, then they have no legitimization allowing them to say anything to anyone about anything. Israel will be isolated from the rest of the world and vilified over the Palestinians and the complaints of their mistreatment. Israel will find the backs of the Western nations turned towards her as they refuse to heed her warnings and she is relegated to international purgatory rejected by former friends and facing a cold world where she has been deserted and left to be wrung by the winds of the furies of abandonment. Israeli leaders will question whether it is possible that they alone in the world know the real truth and everybody else is living the life of a fool smiling all the way to their own graves. For the answer all the leadership of Israel need do is look to Israel’s ancient history where she often was the one truth amongst a sea of idolaters set to destroy the chosen and prove that there was no one unseen all-powerful G0d. If they hold to the truth and their faith in the L0rd who brought them from the land of Egypt then Israel will survive whatever is brought against her and the fact that Israel will see only goodness while the majority of the world has turned their hands against her will once again prove the power of the one true G0d. There is one other reality, namely that there will be some who will stand with Israel such as many American Evangelical Christians, Canada, the Czech Republic and the other nations who stood with Israel in the General Assembly vote over granting the Palestinian Authority nation-state status. In the meantime the rest of us are left with our prayers and may we make the best of them and make them count as they may never have before. Honesty, humility, earnest faith and a deep trust is what will see us through and perchance allow for the miracle which changes the hearts of those who now stand to darken their hearts with deceit and expediency.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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