Beyond the Cusp

October 19, 2014

Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei Tweets Nuclear Red Lines

Perhaps Tweeting is the new diplomatic courier for national figures and even the leaders of nations for making their desires, positions and calls for actions known to the world. Maybe the press conference is passé and nobody let me know. I wonder sometimes why I’m almost always the last to know these things. Perhaps it’s because I don’t have a Facebook presence. Anyway, the Ayatollah Khamenei issued his eleven demands in a tweet which was then made into a nice diagram by Mark Langfan which included his eleven red lines for the upcoming talks with the P5+1 (United States, Britain, Russia, France, China plus Germany) which are depicted in the cutest little diagram shown below.

 

Iranian Red Lines for Nuclear Talks

Iranian Red Lines for Nuclear Talks as stated by Ayatollah Khamenei

 

These are the actual demands in an easier to read listing:
1) Nuclear science movement should not come to a halt or even slow down.
2) Iranian Delegation should insist on continuing nuclear research and development.
3) No one has the right to bargain over nuclear achievements and no one will do so.
4) Our delegation should not accept any impositions from the other side.
5) International Atomic Energy Agency should establish normal and non-extraordinary relations with Iran.
6) Officials should have meetings and talks at the level of foreign ministers.
7) Protecting an organization like Fordow which the enemy is not able to destroy and is inaccessible to them.
8) Supplying the final need of the country’s enrichment capacity which is 190 thousand SWUs.
9) Basic needs of the country and some issues like the sanctions should not be tied to the nuclear talks.
10) These talks are only centered on the nuclear issue and not anything else.
11) As long as Americans continue their enmity and their hostile remarks about Iran, interactions with them will bears no practicality.

Information for this article taken from Mark Langfan’s article titled Iran’s Red Line: Centrifuges for 38 A-Bombs Per Year.

 

The demands set forth by Iran’s Supreme Leaders leave little if any doubt what their intentions are, to make as many nuclear warheads as they possibly are capable and to continue their research into making bigger and more powerful nuclear devices with a definite intention of gaining the knowhow to manufacture thermonuclear devices and warehousing sufficient nuclear warheads of varying sizes, multiple warheads, and yields such that they will be prepared at some point in the near future, within the decade, to make a swarm attack with nuclear devices against the United States, the European capitals and largest twenty-five cities and Israel with the intents of laying waste and completely destroying the American and Israeli society and populations and leaving Europe destroyed and rendered back to the Dark Ages. After the Iranians have obliterated the Western world their next move will be to demand that the entirety of Islam surrender and accept Shia Islam as their religion and the Iranian Mullahs and their Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah, as the leadership of all Islam. They will demand the right to rule over the Holy cities of Mecca and Medina and will order that all the holy cities of Shia Islam be placed as the highest holy sites with any Sunni holy sites being rendered to lesser levels of holiness by comparison. The Iranian Mullahs have made no bones about their intention to become the leadership of a pure Islamic Caliphate consisting of a Shia body without any other sect or forms of Islam which might challenge their supremacy. There is nothing terrible about the desires by the Iranians to become the rulers and leaders of what they believe the only true form of Islam, and basically they have achieved this already as they basically are the de facto rulers in Iraq and control Syria and Lebanon outright before the civil war began in Syria and then spilled into Iraq and threatens Lebanon all indirectly resulting from the impetus which resulted from the Arab Spring turned Arab Winter and now becoming rapidly Arab Apocalypse, all of which could be indirectly traced as being tangential to President Obama’s Cairo speech and the policies which led to the United States withdrawal from much of their military locations within Middle East and North Africa nations and supporting the Arab uprisings while not nurturing or even policing the aftermaths.

What is a fear for the future concerning Iran is their desire to force all of Islam to follow their version of Islam or face the sword, as it is stated in the Quran, and then force the rest of the world to also be followers of Islam and by the manner by which they define it or face the sword. What makes their desire for world control is their willingness to go to extremes of destruction against any and every nations, peoples and followers of different faiths that the Iranian leadership has actually stated they are willing to utilize any and all facilities, weapons and other resources and methodologies in their conquest and reordering of the world. What is not surprising is that the majority of the world has either ignored or simply not bothered to listen or care enough to show concern over the Iranian threats. Even those who have noted and stated recognition of the Iranian aims have, for the most part, dismissed these threats as inconsequential or not realizable and thus there is no actual need to address or dedicate any resources or efforts to mitigate the threat. This is most evident in the P5+1 negotiations with Iran which actually could be better defined as negotiations between Iran supported for the most part by Russia and China negotiating with Britain and France who wish to slow if not prevent the Iranian nuclear program. Meanwhile, the United States holds the deciding weight but displays little desire to actually prevent Iran from their development of nuclear weapons in their nuclear program and even appear to be turning a blind eye and only wishing to end these discomforting negotiations which are causing high expectations from many outside concerned nations, Israel being the most vocal and even having carried their concerns long and loud even at the United Nations recently. United States leadership from President Obama to Secretary of State Kerry seem to only wish to be done with the entire responsibility for preventing Iran from producing nuclear weapons to the point of a willingness to simply surrender if making any stand proves to possibly force the negotiations to fail by the deadline of November 24, 2014.

The negotiations are soon to be resumed which likely will be painstakingly tendentious as the United States continues to offer little resistance or make any meaningful input. The world may be once again hanging by the thread relying hopefully that Britain or France take the position of protector of the future and sanity of the world. This is not as far out of bounds as it may first appear as during an earlier session almost a full year ago early in November 2013, Britain was apprehensive and France simply was unaccepting leading to their veto of the agreement put forth by both the Iranians and United States. Both other Western nations suspected the deal was simply ceding too many points and demands to the Iranians. When this occurred was when I realized beyond reasonable doubt that President Obama was not only willing to relent on any and all principles simply to curry favor and appear to be actually finally earning that Nobel Peace Prize. I already knew that President Obama was mostly all about image, winning favor and being accepted as a friend willing to go that extra step, as long as that step was not difficult or requiring any great efforts including standing on principles. We are very likely about to witness another grand surrender once again in November as both President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry see no problems with the Iranians gaining nuclear weapons, period. They have both stated on numerous occasions that they believe that Iran having nuclear weapons would be no different than when the Soviet Union and China gained nuclear weapons capability and the Iranians will be deterred from ever deploying their nuclear weapons by the threat of mutual destruction. They both probably also see an Iranian nuclear weapon arsenal as a balancing against the presumed Israeli nuclear arsenal. They further believe that because any use of a nuclear weapon by terrorists, the weapon could be traced back to the source country which provided the weapon and this would prevent Iran or any other nuclear power from ever arming terrorists with such a weapon. All this trust and faith between the United States administration personnel and the Iranian Mullahs and Ayatollahs is just so warm and fuzzy, what is not to like. Well, other than such things as potential terrorist gaining nuclear weapons and the certainty that Iran becoming a nuclear power will without a doubt result in an arms race throughout the MENA countries (Middle East and North Africa) which will result in Saudi Arabia initially joining the nuclear club followed relatively soon by Turkey and Egypt and then Syria and Lebanon, providing Syria and Lebanon are still functioning nations, and eventually to most of the rest providing this arms race does not trigger the final Biblical Armageddon. Let’s party like it’s the end of the world, it very well might be being setup right now as we watch powerless to press any stop button and without any chance to interject our fears and realize our grandest hopes.

Beyond the Cusp

June 30, 2014

Middle East War Imminent

The forces fighting under the banner of the terrorist army of Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) have swept across central Iraq and are only now facing any real opposition. This lack of resistance has emboldened ISIS as well as having provided them with advanced weapons systems which were abandoned by the Iraqi Army as they retreated, refusing to even engage the oncoming terrorist army. Only now has the Iraqi Army properly prepared to face the onrushing hordes by holding their ground around Baghdad. Much of the Western World has focused upon Baghdad with low expectations and have set attacking Jordan as their line in the sand. Former Israeli National Security Council director Yaakov Amidror commented on the situation Sunday expressing that, “It’s not just in Jordan’s interest, but in Israel’s as well, to work together to solve this problem.” The comments came amidst reports of Jordan deploying massive army forces on its Iraqi border Friday, including tanks, army vehicles, missile launchers and soldiers, citing the Arab news source Asharq Al-Aswat. Jordanian concerns are validated by calls from amongst the advancing ISIS forces for Jordanian King Abdullah’s execution.

 

Further aggravation has been caused by the ISIS leadership declaring themselves as a new Islamic Caliphate and defining the lands that they have taken by force as being a new Islamic State. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was given the title of Caliph which permits him to take whatever he desires and to do so by force if that is what is required. ISIS is also now declaring that they should now be referred to as simply the Islamic State and give them the deference usually reserved for recognized and established nations. Spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani released a statement to the press where he claimed, referring to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi being given the title of Caliph and the establishing ISIS as the Islamic State, “He is the Imam and Khalifah for the Muslims everywhere. It is incumbent upon all Muslims to pledge allegiance to and support him. The legality of all emirates, groups, states, and organizations, becomes null by the expansion of the Khalifah’s authority and arrival of its troops to their areas.” I guess that all has been said and done and we can expect any moment now for the Family Saud, the Emirs of Kuwait and the Emirates, President el-Sisi in Egypt, Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey and every other Sunni national leader to surrender their nations and pledge their troops to the new Islamic State and the great Khalifah Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Well, I guess this takes care of Jordan as obviously Jordanian King Abdullah II ibn al-Hussein will order his armies which are currently deployed in force and on high alert to stand down and take whatever is required of them by the new Khalifah al-Baghdadi including executing the King for his crimes against Islam which Khalifah al-Baghdadi has ordered. Well, then again, maybe not; and the same likely goes for Egyptian President Sisi, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, the Family Saud and any of the other “righteous leaderships” that currently rule by the will of Allah and their having most of the guns throughout the Sunni Muslim World, and we have yet to address the Shiite Islamic world which Khalifah al-Baghdadi has declared all Shiite Muslims to be heretics deserving of death.

 

So, what can we make of all this fury and bluster? Giving it some thought, we can likely conclude that ISIS has stretched their lines close to their limits without an new influx of fighters, and even more importantly, supply and logistics personnel which are more difficult to find as such positions are not the positions desired by the glory and martyrdom seekers and require intelligence and education if they are to be useful and as well organized as required. No army has ever run on all soldiers on the lines fighting and nobody bringing them supplies, food and all the other requirements for battle and survival. The age of plunder as you go is over and the only soldiers still employing such tactics are small specialized forces who are executing specific missions and targets and are not as concerned with taking and holding land. ISIS has declared their intent to transform the lands they have conquered into a state, even if it is a nonfunctional state for now, and that requires holding and defending the lands you possess and still providing for the troops to continue onward in your lust for complete power. Does this mean that ISIS is done and not going to proceed further? No, they will still likely be capable of launching attacks on the southern extremes of Iraq which they must take if only for the oil fields and a port to the open seas in order to trade that oil taking in monies they can then utilize for further conquest. They might even attempt to take on the Jordanian army. It would serve Jordan to announce if they have any assurances or agreements with Israel for their mutual defense before ISIS crosses their border and hostilities start. Warfare is easier to force your enemy to reconsider attacking you than it is to force them to end such an assault and disengage from the conflict on your front.

 

Are there any other options for ISIS if they should prove capable of capturing the southern parts of Iraq? There are basically three options, after they solidify their conquest of Iraq and have dealt with the fairly significant numbers of Shiites, they will have remaining on the lands they would then control. Demanding mass conversions to Sunni Islam would be attempted but if there are those who are respected within the Shiite community who refuse, that could result in a large segment also refusing to swear their allegiance to Sunni Islam and to follow Khalifah al-Baghdadi. Providing that either ISIS risked raising the general levels of ire towards them by murdering en-mass the Shiite population of Iraq, the option for what next would be completely taken care of by Iran who would necessarily declare Jihad against ISIS declaring them apostates, idolaters or heretics and another Iraq-Iran War would ensue and would be to the death. In such a scenario the only hope ISIS would have is if the rest of the Sunni Islamic world would answer their calls for unity against the Shiites and a final last war between these two largest branches of Islam. Should ISIS find another route whereby the Shiite population they would have conquered is not forced necessarily to convert and are not murdered en-mass, then they would face choices. Attacking Jordan runs the risk of also engaging Israel and possibly others from the Western nations though it would be very unlikely that the United States would do anything beyond perhaps some attempts to target leaders of ISIS for drone strikes, killing the head of the snake, so to speak. The other choices would be to strike either Kuwait or Saudi Arabia. These two options basically end with the same results, starting the general war between the Family Saud and the leadership of ISIS for control of the Sunni Islamic world. The Saudis would have the deeper pockets and would have the assistance of Western nations who would only likely demand a lower price on oil for some period which would help to stimulate their sluggish economies to climb out from the recession much more quickly and with less pain and austerity. At this point ISIS has the choice of which bad idea will they pursue. There still remains the final option, do nothing and consolidate their gains for the time being. Then once they have established this new Islamic State and gained recognition, and why should they not expect recognition as they are no worse a terrorist group than is Hezballah, Islamic Jihad, Hamas or Fatah and the Western nations have demanded Israel negotiate with or otherwise deal with those terror groups and give them a state of their own, why would ISIS be any different other than they are not attacking Israel yet. So, depending on the next move taken by ISIS, I’m sorry, the “Islamic State”, that will determine whether we are about to enter into a general Middle East War or continue with ever increasing terrorist strikes the world over and the first step to redrawing the Arab and Muslim world to represent reality and the tribal, clannish and sectarian differences establishing new nations which represent a pure citizenship with little or no multicultural citizenry such as was forced upon the Middle East after World War I by the Sykes–Picot Agreement which spawned much of the turmoil in the region ever since the imaginary and arbitrary lines were drawn seemingly free of any considerations or thought and completely at random as if by a child scrawling with multicolored crayons on the map of the Middle East.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 1, 2014

A Tale of Two Potential Conflicts

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Of all the potential flashpoints existing in the world, we would like to compare and contrast two separate potential conflicts; the possible intervention in the political unrest in the Ukraine by Russia and the possibility that Israel might intervene to attempt to address and mute the several threats across numerous fronts including Hezballah, Hamas and their sponsor Iran. Where any Israeli action against the growing threats made out of Iran would also require that Israel to take into consideration how they would address the additional arms that Iran has direct influence and could turn loose to attack Israel utilizing the tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of rockets and missiles ranging through the gamut from Katyusha and Grad rockets to Scud, Fajr and Zelzal-2s. The questions in each case run the full range from what would be the reactions of the United Nations to reactions from the major powers and other significant groups and entities.

 

Starting with the possibility of a Russian intervention in the Ukraine, what are the various scenarios and resultant ramifications. It is very possible that the Russians will be able to claim that their intervention is in response to requests from the people of the Ukraine who saw the overthrow of the government as a direct threat to their interests and safety. Such a request could easily be made by the majority Russian citizens living in the eastern and southern provinces of the Ukraine who have made clear their preference for the Ukraine to align with Russia over aligning with the European Union. There are reports that the Russians have placed a large force on their border with the Ukraine including fighter and other aircraft wings which would be necessary to assist with any military intervention. United States President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry and Secretary of Defense Hagel have all made statements warning the Russians that the United States Administration is opposed and demands that they not enter or otherwise interfere with the political process currently occurring in the Ukraine. The odds that Russian President Putin will heed such a warning and have it influence his decisions are basically nil. Much of this has to do with the complete lack of the United States to back earlier warnings given to Syria when American President Obama announced his red-line and serious consequences on Syrian President al-Assad against his deploying chemical weapons. The complete ineffectiveness of the American threat of serious consequences resulting in dithering and equivocation by President Obama leading to inaction and a stalemate which was almost painful to witness and was thankfully brought to a definitive end when President Putin intervened proposing the confiscation and destruction of al-Assad’s chemical weapons arsenal granting President Obama a way to climb down from the embarrassment of being caught on his own petard.

 

Should the Russians intervene in the Ukraine the world is most likely to sit on their hands and not offer even the mildest rebuke. The truth is that the Russians, especially under President Putin’s leadership, are sufficiently feared and retain sufficient threat to cause any sane and reasoned person or nation to carefully consider if the Ukraine is really worth their potentially confronting the Russians and challenging President Putin. Furthermore, as the Russians are one of the permanent nations on the Security Council and possess a full right of vetoing any actions or proposals presented for consideration by that body, there is absolutely no possibility to condemn any Russian actions in the Security Council. The possibility of Russia being rebuked by the General Assembly is one of the most laughable proposals anybody could ever make. The General Assembly often appears like it exists for denouncing the United States, Israel and even the European nations while forgiving any transgressions by the entirety of the non-free and third world nations. The end result of a Russian intervention in the Ukraine would likely be very similar to the results decades ago when the Soviet Union rolled tanks and troops into the rebellious republic of Czechoslovakia on August 21, 1968, bringing the reforms and attempt to move out from under the Soviet thumb by Czechoslovakia with nary a significantly effective complaint from the entire world. Putting it succinctly, Russia could walk into the Ukraine and annex the entire nation reestablishing Russian control of the entirety of the Ukraine and outside of any demonstrations by Ukrainians there would be little effective protest. The resistance by any Ukrainians would be short lived and ended with whatever brutality was deemed necessary as that is the Putin way.

 

In the other situation, the cacophony of denunciations and demands for the world to completely condemn Israel would be deafening and seemingly universal. There would be a race between the different nations to bring condemnations of Israel before the General Assembly and the Security Council would be in emergency session before the sun set and possibly before the jets returned from a strike on Iran. There would be claims upon claims quoting International Law as requiring the condemnation of Israel for their wanton assault on another United Nations member nation. The justification which Israel could offer would never be given the slightest consideration in the rush to condemnation. But is such condemnation appropriate or would Israel have a right and justifiable reasoning behind such an attack that would be backed by International Law? Surprisingly to most, the answer is a definitive yes. The Iranian leadership including Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini, numerous Imams, many of the Ministers from the Iranian Parliament and numerous other members of the leadership both political and religious have publically called repeatedly for the annihilation of Israel. There have been large assemblies of Iranians, often weekly on Friday after services where the Imam likely gave a sermon demonizing Israel and calling for Jihad to reclaim Islamic lands, who chanted in unison repeating the chant often spoken from the podium by a high government or religious official calling out, “Death to Israel” as well as religious chants proclaiming the supremacy of Allah and their dedication to serve Allah often by actions to destroy the Jewish State. Speeches given by leading government leaders at parades and other events which almost always include martial demonstrations such as parading missiles on launchers in parades these leaders claim that the military strength displayed will soon be loosed on Israel destroying the Zionist Entity. These provocations, if they can be believed as actual statements of intent and the probability of their being a true forecast of actions exists, then Israel would have sufficient cause to attack Iran to destroy the Iranian ability to make war upon Israel under International Law. That is the crux of the argument behind the threats to strike the Iranian nuclear sites and the same arguments would also hold for an Israeli strike on Iranian military targets.

 

Where Israel would face a series of severe threats would be from the terror forces which are available to carry out any Iranian calls for attacks on Israel. These include minimally Hezballah and Hamas and could also include terror forces in the areas under the control of the Palestinian Authority, Judea and Samaria, also called the West Bank. This very likely was one of the subjects which was discussed when Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas visited Tehran, Iran recently. Such would most definitely have come up if Chairman Abbas was requesting any funding or other assistance from the Iranians, something which is very likely as Abbas appears to be incapable of visiting anywhere and not begging for funding. Where Israel would be hard-pressed in making an argument for attacking the Palestinian Authority areas, they would easily be able to make a convincing argument concerning both Hezballah and Hamas as both have left no doubt that their intent is the destruction of Israel and the genocidal slaughter of every Jew, often referred to as Zionists, residing in Israel no matter their political persuasions. The reality of any Israeli attack is that you would be able to count the number of nations that would actively support the Israelis would likely be countable on your two hands. Bless United States, the Czech Republic, Panama, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau and especially Canada (with a salute to Prime Minister Harper). These were the only nations which found the nerve and good conscience to vote against recognition of the Palestinian Authority as a non-member state. Israel would face a boycott from the European Union and the Arab League would be red-faced in angry denouncements. Israel might not even be able to count on having the United States defend them with their veto in the Security Council. It might even be prudent for Israel to resign their membership in the United Nations which for the vast majority of its recent history has been the place Israel could go to be denigrated and denounced for her audacity to exist. The differences between a Russian military intervention in the Ukraine and Israel acting in her own self-interest and defense would be diametrically opposite in act and reasoning. Some things are only remarkable in their obvious predictability as in their lack of moral conscience and convictions.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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