According to many experts, both lauded and the self-described varieties, Iran has been given exactly enough time to be able to build and test a nuclear weapon within the six months they have been granted by the deal made with the P5+1 in the Geneva negotiations. Many claim that Iran will attain breakout ability within four months and define breakout as the production of a nuclear weapon would only take six weeks to gather the fissile materials and fashion a nuclear device that can be tested. Others have claimed that the six months is insufficient time for Iran to make a functional, deliverable weapon and they dismiss any significance to the testing of a nuclear devise as unimportant as there is no need to be concerned as long as Iran has not developed a deliverable weapon by normally considered systems. Personally, I would consider an Iranian device, no matter how crudely assembled or bulky and completely impossible to mount on a ballistic missile of any range and payload capability or fit within the bay of even the largest bombers, as a danger at least to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, Israel, and Eastern Europe as no matter the size of the nuclear fissionable device it would be deliverable hidden within a truck which was described as a large transit truck or construction vehicle such as a concrete mixer truck and transited overland. But all that aside, we have recently learned, the deal with Iran has not actually been finalized and is not yet ready to be applicable requiring more discussion, debate and negotiations before any application date can be set. Put in plain language this means that the presumption that the deal covers the next six months is erroneous as simply completing the steps might take a year or more and then the six months would begin.
What is even more alarming is that until the deal has been finalized and the date set and passed implementing the deal, Iran will be permitted to continue spinning their centrifuges, priming the Arak heavy water reactor and, if given sufficient time before implementation, starting the reactor having it produce plutonium which grants Iran a second route to nuclear weapon. Actually, the limbo which currently has been produced by the state of the negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran there are no inspections, either scheduled or surprise spot checks, no inspections or limits on plutonium production once Arak is on line, retaining all of the already enriched to twenty percent uranium while continuing to produce stocks of three to five percent enriched uranium and even additional twenty percent enriched uranium. There is nothing to prevent Iran from enriching uranium to weapons grade level of over ninety percent or even actually producing a nuclear device which technically a real nuclear weapon. The gaming of the negotiation by Iran are working so beautifully and efficiently when viewed from the Iranian side that the Western powers have negotiated themselves willingly into a corner whose predicament will be near impossible to work around should Iran act to extend the negotiations putting off the execution of the deal while continuing their efforts toward manufacturing not just a device to test but a deliverable nuclear weapon.
Once Iran has proven nuclear weapons capability, what exactly might they choose to do and how will the western world in particular and the entire world react to any Iranian actions. A few days ago we posted an <a href=http://beyondthecusp.wordpress.com/2013/12/09/northeastern-saudi-and-eastern-gulf-oil-fields-the-new-sudetenland/>article</a> in which it was described a scenario trying to explain what actions Iran might take should they decide to actually use a nuclear weapon with which to push their designs through terrorism, civil upheavals coordinated with Shiite Muslims residing in targeted nations as a fifth column. There is another path which Iran might choose to achieve their desired place as a world power leading the Muslim world and having direct abilities to affect the rest of the world eventually being the head of a caliphate which rules the entirety of the Earth. Their first step would be to take the guiding leadership of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) taking control over setting the price of oil and the production limits for the world. To guarantee that these controls are kept and remain unchallenged by other oil producing nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other nations neighboring or within the established orb of Iranian influence, they might threaten those nations closest to them with military action to keep them under their control. The Iranians would use their controlling influence over oil prices and production they would amass sufficient funds for themselves to finance terrorism and revolutions worldwide and use such unrest as a condition for their extending their control promising to end the terrorism. This, of course, would be an attainable result by Iran to grant any nation which succumbed and surrendered control to them as they would be the originating source of that terrorism. By using a stick and carrot approach with the stick being the terrorism fomented by Iran on their target society, the target nations or regions, and the protection and guarantees by Iran for saving the target nation from the terror as the carrot, the Iranians could work the same game as the Nazis used to gain their initial foothold in Czechoslovakia which enabled their conquest of the nation after they were betrayed by their stronger allies Britain and France who had promised in treaties to come to Czechoslovakia’s aid if they were to come under attack.
Already the Iranians have extended their circle of control and influence to include Syria and Lebanon. Iran also has some influence over the Gaza terror sponsors of Hamas by controlling a sizeable portion of their financing. Since the United States were unable to negotiate a treaty that would have allowed their troops to remain in Iraq, the Iranians have established close friendly terms with the Shiite rulers of Iraq. Iran probably had much to do with the purging of many of the highest ranking Sunni Iraqis serving in the government which has led to the increasing violence and the return of al-Qaeda. The situation with Iran subjugating and persecuting Sunnis, especially in Iraq, has been so distressing to the Sunni community that al-Qaeda has declared a fatwa demanding that their membership go on a genocidal offensive murdering every Shiite they meet. There are claims that this fatwa only applies to the forces fighting against Syrian President Assad and Hezballah and those fighting in Iraq against the Shiite controlled Iraqi government. As it has been proven beyond any doubt that Iran has been one of, if not the, leading nations perpetrating terrorism throughout the world in order to serve their causes and weaken those whom the Iranians believe they may need to defeat at some point in the future. Of course this includes both Israel and the United States though neither of these nations will be at the very top of the list as Iran will initially target the oil fields closest to their borders or the governments which rule over them. Furthermore, Iran with nuclear weapons will act similarly as has North Korea and threaten wars and nuclear attacks unless financial and other aid is not immediately provided. As insane as it may first appear, the United States and Europe have been supplying North Korea with funds, food, medical assistance and other necessities and some luxuries with it being increased, or minimally reestablished at previously higher levels as their response to North Korean blackmail ever since their first nuclear tests. There is a similar history being played with Pakistan as they too have used their nuclear weapons expertise threatening to give crucial assistance and information to other nations who may be seeking to become nuclear powers as well. The Pakistani threat is heeded as most remember the selling of nuclear information by Dr. A. Q. Khan, a Pakistani who was a crucial physicist in the Pakistani nuclear weapons drive and the central figure in a nuclear weapons plans and secrets for sale which startled the Western powers when his actions became known. Basically, take anything ever perpetrated by any proliferating nuclear weapons capable country and you would have the entire scene of what mischief is available to Iran once they have tested a nuclear device, and let us assure you that the realizations are not pretty.
Beyond the Cusp