Kerry’s Middle East Peace Plan Unveiled on Netanyahu

United States Secretary of State John Kerry began his follow-up to President Obama’s visit to the Middle East on Saturday by unveiling his great new hope for developing negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and Israeli leaders in order to solve the dilemmas and produce the long-sought two states for two peoples living in peace and security side-by-side. Secretary Kerry had been making grand praises for his mysterious new plan to restart the peace talks between Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority leadership and Benyamin Netanyahu and the Israeli leadership. The current situation is as favorable as any in recent history for establishing a dialogue and possibly even making some headway towards settling the final status agreement from which a Palestinian state would become not only possible but a viable entity as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has appointed his Justice Minister Tzipi Livni to lead the Israeli negotiating team and take charge of all negotiations with the Palestinians. One would be hard pressed to find another politician or negotiator in Israel who would present a more lenient and accepting individual than Tzipi Livni as she has indicated she favors, among other things, release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli custody, a partial acceptance of Palestinian ‘right of return’ accepting some number of refugees into Israel, returning Israel to the pre-1967 War lines, the Green Line, with only mutually agreed land swaps making any necessary or desired changes, granting the Palestinians all of east Jerusalem as their capital including the entirety of the Old City, the Temple Mount, and the Western Wall along with the plaza adjacent to it. One might be led to think that with Tzipi Livni leading the negotiations that there would be a peace treaty quickly as what more could Mahmoud Abbas demand that she would not comply with and grant?

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Kerry began his initiative with a meeting in the Jordanian Capital of Amman with Mahmoud Abbas where they discussed what would be necessary to restart negotiations between Abbas and the Israeli negotiators. Kerry was reportedly told that Israel would necessarily have to freeze all building in the disputed areas which are expected to be returned to the Palestinians, accept the pre-1967 War lines as the start point in negotiations for borders with any changes requested by Israel subject to Palestinian acceptance or denial, and the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. Kerry was soon armed with Palestinian President Abbas’s conditions, the very same conditions he initially made when President Obama attempted to bully Israel into complying with early in his first term which resulted eventually in a crushing end to the peace process as even after Israel froze building in the disputed areas Abbas refused to meet. That evening Secretary Kerry began his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu where he related the events and substance of the meeting with Abbas from earlier in the day. As the meeting continued they were joined by Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, Netanyahu’s personal envoy Yitzhak Molcho and his national security adviser Yaakov Amidror so that the entire Israeli team could be brought into the process.

It has been reported that the Israelis were informed that in order to have Mahmoud Abbas return to the negotiations and stay from pressing charges against Israel in the international courts such as the ICC Israel would be required to begin the transfer of the lands within Area B from joint control to unilateral Palestinian control for civil and security responsibilities removing all Israeli influence and having these areas incorporated into Area A where Israelis are forbidden entry without Palestinian approval, and Israel would be required to release prisoners from Israeli custody though the exact numbers or suggested lists were not discussed. Secretary Kerry also relayed that Mahmoud Abbas had stressed that Israeli settlements endanger the peace process. Whether anything else was discussed with Netanyahu and his negotiating team has not been released though there have been rumors that Obama agreed to allow Israel to implement a silent construction freeze where no new building would be approved but there would be no official statement or recognition of such a freeze in construction. This sound very much like what was in existence under Minister of Defense Ehud Barak in the last Israeli government and one will need to wait and see if Netanyahu will have his new Minister of Defense Moshe Yaalon or whoever else will be charged with approvals for building permits in Judea and Samaria also to refuse to sign off on any new building permits. As far as restarting the peace process we hold out little hope. Just a reminder to those who will revel in these supposedly new initiatives and the introduction of a path to renewed talks that we have seen these exact same demands from Abbas before the last time he refused to restart the peace process. Israel enforced a ten month building freeze during which Abbas made every effort to avoid talks until three weeks before the freeze was to end when he returned to negotiate the making of the building freeze permanent before he would take even an initial step towards talks. He will once again find reasons to protest and if his protests and complaints are not honored, Abbas will simply once again begin adding more and more precondition and requirements on the Israelis in order to avoid peace talks.

Secretary of State Kerry may actually believe he knows the secret formula that would lead to peace between the Palestinians and Israelis. His making such a statement is only proof that he has not been paying attention to the situation all those years he has sat in the United States Senate. The one point that Secretary Kerry and all others need to understand is that Palestinian President Abbas cannot make a peace with Israel that leaves Israel as the Jewish State. As soon as Abbas would make an agreement to have a Palestinian state formed next to Israel instead of replacing Israel he would be a man marked for death. Just as happened in Gaza once the Israeli people and IDF were removed, Hamas will revolt and take over Judea and Samaria along with any parts of Jerusalem which were surrendered to Abbas for the Palestinian state and to make peace. Once Hamas had taken control of all the Palestinian lands they would try, convict and execute every single leading figure from the Palestinian Authority who had anything to do with forging the peace agreement or cooperating in any manner with the Israeli security and other personnel. They did the exact same thing in Gaza after their successful coup. With this as an eventual possibility which would follow any peace agreement which Abbas makes with Israel, even if it is only in Abbas’s head, he will refuse to even negotiate as there is always the fear that Israel might call his bluff and accept all of his preconditions. Abbas is a survivor and all of his actions are planned to keep him alive and he believes that any peace that does not erase the Jewishness of Israel or erase Israel altogether is a peace which will result in his death. It is this threat which drives Abbas and leaves to his final trump card, the demand that Israel would never acquiesce to. That final demand is for Israeli to agree to blanket acceptance for the ‘right of return’ of close to if not more than five million refugees into Israel with full citizenship and rights. Such an agreement would be the end of Israel as it now exists and that the next election would turn Israel into another Arab Muslim state as that is the intent and only truth Abbas will ever settle for as the peace he seeks. That is the only agreement that has even a remote chance of allowing Abbas to continue to live.

Unfortunately, there is a problem with this settlement as well. The current situation brings along with it a near endless amount of funds from Europe, the United States, the United Nations, the Arab world and sundry other institutions and organizations. These funds have made Mahmoud Abbas a very wealthy man who lives a life of comfort. Should the Palestinian state he supposedly seeks ever be established these funds would begin to dry up and eventually stop. With things the way they are, Abbas simply sobs and cries into the closest microphone with his regular old canard of the Jews are destroying our economy and woe are us under the Israeli occupation ending with we will cease to eat or even exist without many billions of Euros and Dollars immediately. And every time he does his song and dance routine the monies roll in from all over the world. The countries of the world scurry and hold emergency meetings to save the Palestinians and Abbas pockets his commission, say likely twelve percent or so. As long as the world is willing to pay the Palestinians to seek peace the Palestinians will complain and pretend to seek peace blaming everybody’s favorite scapegoats, the Jews, for denying the Palestinians a state of their own and refusing to meet the few minor preconditions, actually not preconditions but more obligations according to Abbas, thus denying the world a peaceful Middle East. Truth be told, if the world really desires peace between the Palestinians and Israelis then they are going to have to begin to pay for peace by promising funding only after peace has been made and the terrorism completely halted. Anything else will simply facilitate the endless continuation of the present situation guaranteeing absolutely no possibility for peace or change.

Beyond the Cusp

The Real War Threat Over Israel

Ask almost any of the people who claim to know what is coming next and they will regale you with all the various scenarios of an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear sites and the ensuing regional war or other results. All the so-called professional know-it-alls are blinded against anything beyond Israel going rogue and without consulting anybody, including and especially the United States and any others who might possibly be on the receiving end of some of the repercussions and retaliations which Iran would likely pursue. All of their scenarios ignore anything outside of a laser focus on Iran which blinds them to the growing violence already quite advanced in day-to-day events in much of Israel.

They are ignoring the daily carjacking attempts which threaten to result in the death of any Israeli driving past where these gangs operate. They ignore daily assaults on motorists driving near many of the Palestinian neighborhoods on their daily routes where they may have rocks, some of very large size, raining down on their vehicle often resulting in broken glass in addition to sizeable dents. Some of these attacks have proven fatal but are usually dismissed as much as possible by the authorities who are loath to investigate. They miss the Arab attempts, often with the assistance of the Civil Administration, to take possession of land belonging to Jewish residents in Judea and Samaria. They miss attacks on crops and sometimes upon the homes and residents of the Jewish neighborhoods and farms in Judea and Samaria. The attacks and thefts which occur daily within the green line to Jewish farmers in central and northern Israel and the Bedouin attempts to take possession of lands in the Negev regardless of ownership. They ignore all the violence which has been growing at measurable and alarming rates within the areas under Israeli control.

They ignore the slow increase in the median level of rocket and mortar attacks originating in Gaza and lately also from the Sinai Peninsula. They ignore the increasing number of attempts to shoot or otherwise ambush IDF patrols along the Gaza and Lebanon borders. Even the beginning of the use of roadside bombs and IEDs which have been incorporated into the range of attacks against the IDF patrols are now a part of the Gaza attacks against IDF patrols. Then there has been the latest added front which some blame upon the failure of the Egyptian interim military government’s inability or total lack of desire for keeping order in the Sinai. When the lack of any law enforcement is coupled with the removal of any revenues from their usual means of guiding tourists and other related tourism incomes, the Sinai Bedouins have been driven to find alternate income which Hamas and al-Qaeda terrorists were more than happy to provide. Now the previously peaceable Bedouins who avoided any alignment with the violence or with strident Islam have now appeared to become radicalized and are taking full advantage of making a living supplying arms and other goods for the tunnels into Gaza and in assisting Hamas, al-Qaeda and other terrorists in their attacks on Israel and, as was evident last week, even Egyptian personnel. No matter which direction one cares to sample, violence from Islamic fronts has been radically increasing over the last decade with a definitive uptick in the rate of increase in the past couple of years. The rate has escalated even faster in the last six months and is approaching a tipping point which is actually ahead of the Iranian progress towards a nuclear weapon.

It is quite likely that the increased level of antagonism by terror outlets, especially those in Lebanon, Gaza, and the Sinai could very well be in part due to requests from the Iranians to act as a means of keeping Israel tied down protecting the home-front from the terror assaults and thus unable to also make an attack upon the Iranian nuclear facilities. This does not explain the increased violence being wrought inside and beyond the Green Line which are often controlled by the military arms of Fatah under Mahmoud Abbas leadership. Much of this can be directly tied to increased activity which is encouraged and often financed by leftist sources, many of which are from Europe with some even financed by European governments, the same European governments who are in the midst of financial meltdown yet still finding funds to finance attacks upon Jews and Israel. All of these varied fronts come together to form an effective assault upon Israel and are likely to force a response if the increased levels continue for much longer. This too may be part of the overall intent of the forces allied against Israel.

Some might ask for an explanation on why all the discussion and noise emanating from Israel concerning an attack on the Iranian nuclear sites. Well, first we need to identify the sources of much of the noise. Where Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister have made comments, most of which were either denial of any intent to attack Iran or simply stating that Israel is capable and ready to defend herself from any attack or threat, and have held from any commitment from committing to an attack or denying such. This is the obvious tact for any leader to take in order to not divulge any useable information to those oppositional forces. Secrecy itself is also a weapon of any political conflict and even war is, when viewed analytically, a political conflict of the highest order. Much of the rest of the noise about an Israeli unilateral attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities has come from other sources mostly decrying Netanyahu and Barak over their presumed desire to attack Iran, by themselves if necessary. Prime Minister Netanyahu could hold a primetime press conference and definitively declare that Israel has absolutely no intention of attacking Iran before the P5+1 negotiations have played out completely and a coalition of countries is assembled to make such an attack and you would see weeks of conjecture and hypothesizing on how soon and by what means Netanyahu’s announcement implied an imminent Israeli attack. And at the end of that time the liberal leftist press would pummel and castigate the Prime Minister and Defense Minister over having been endlessly making threatening noises about an imminent Iranian attack. The truth be told, the time to become apprehensive over the imminence of an Israeli action against the Iranian nuclear facilities will be when you hear absolutely nothing being discussed and no threats emanating from any front, then one would be wise to become nervous.

The most likely next actions necessitated for an Israel to respond are against the rising threats within their borders by the various terror fronts and leftist agitators. It is our hypothesis that the next Israeli military response to the growing terror threats and violence will be taken once the level of such reaches a level beyond the level which any sane and reasonable observer would be able to determine was acceptable. It will be triggered by a heinous assault or event and only the most virulent anti-Semites and anti-Zionists would be able to criticize the actions. This action will be one of totality and likely followed by Israel dissolving their cooperation with anything related to Oslo, the Roadmap, the Saudi Initiative or any other proposed coexistence with the Palestinians. Israel will very likely follow this action with the deportation of the leadership of the Palestinian Authority as well as any remaining terror commanders and planners and officially annex all of Samaria and Judea. The Israeli government will more than likely offer any Palestinians who wish to voluntarily relocate to another country some form of financial encouragement which will be offered for some limited, but likely generous, period after which anybody caught committing any act of terror will be deported permanently after they serve their time in prison. Once Israel has been pushed to the point that such actions become palatable and they decide they are willing to withstand the slings and arrows which will most assuredly assail them from every government; United Nations agency, department and bureau; NGO; political activist; editorialist; and other potential do-gooder on the planet, then action will be unavoidable. We can be assured that such an action will not be taken without a willingness to withstand any assault and with the assured knowledge that by taking such action their coalition will likely not withstand the coming meteoric storm. But honestly, is it not time that this charade of forming a non-functional country named Palestine simply for the purpose of the eventual destruction of Israel as the Jewish State gone beyond any pretense that it is for any real and true humanitarian principle. Really, if it had ever been honestly about a country for some people known as the “palastinians”, the peace would have been attained and the country formed back in 1948 when the original and most generous offer was proposed and refused in order to go to war to drive the nascent Jewish State into the Sea, and that failed as has every subsequent attempt and will every future attempt. The ruse should be ended once and for ever.

Beyond the Cusp

Update on Israel, Iran, EU, US, UN and the Rest

There were a few seemingly minor events this week which likely had a huge effect on the actions by the many varied players in the near future. Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your views and proclivities, a confrontation with Iran has a likely rough time frame finally in place though only the decision-makers know for sure the exact timing. So, what were the events and influences and what are the likely ramifications?

The first item was seemingly a response to a prediction made right here at Beyond the Cusp where we predicted a high level Obama Administration person would be making a visit to Israel due to comments made by the Israeli defense minister in an article titled  Iran Nuclear Crisis Pits Barak Against Barack. The high level Administration official was Secretary of Defense Panetta who was already set for a trip to North Africa and Turkey, so a quick stop in Israel for a curt reprimand against self-inspired actions and a laying down of reasons why Israel was to heed and not try to run off leash. So, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta made his obligatory stop in Jerusalem, though how he found the Israeli Capital City using Obama Administration issued maps is simply an amazement, and apparently informed the Israeli leadership that his boss, President Barack Obama, did indeed have a plan for when military action vis-à-vis Iran would be deemed necessary. Panetta’s revelations were presumed to assuage any concerns which may have been irritating Israeli leaders into doubt of American resolve which might have them believing the United States is putting undue confidence in the efficacy of sanctions. The catch was the actual time-frame where sanctions might be brought into doubt and spur a more forceful persuasion was eighteen months, that’s right, a year and a half. For some unknown reason, upon hearing this news I have the distinct feeling the Israeli leadership was anything but assuaged.

In the days since our prediction of an imminent trip of an Administration enforcer to Israel there have been numerous hints and comments from any and every direction conceivable. There have been comments from the United States, almost all from unofficial sources, that have, with near uniformity, reinforced the theme that Israel has nothing to worry about as the United States is on the job of assuring that Iran will never possess nuclear weapons. The United States has been said to be so dependable on this that the Israelis can simply lay back and leave the prevention to US. As one might expect, these assurances and the Defense Secretary’s assuaging, even when reinforced by numerous unofficial sources, have not had the desired effect upon many in Israel.

This leads to the comments from the far side of the Mediterranean Sea which probably has been viewed by the White House as being less than helpful. Former Mossad chief Efraim Halevy indicated on Thursday that Israel is likely to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities in a matter of weeks. Aharon Ze’evi-Farkash, former head of the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate, predicted on an Israeli attack on Iran Friday stating, “It could happen within weeks or months. There is a need to stop Iran’s nuclear program. I do not know if Israel plans to attack soon, the Prime Minister said the issue has not yet been decided. But the way I understand the big picture, it seems it will happen soon.” And for the topper, it was rumored that Prime Minister Netanyahu has reached a point of comfort with the necessity for him to make the decision concerning Iran and the Israeli responses, if any. And the European Union has pressed Catherine Ashton, as the lead of the P5+1, to persuade, nay, implore Iranian Chief Negotiator Dr. Jalili into further negotiations. There will be another round of negotiations which will result in the same standoff as before with Iran decrying that the West is simply dragging their heels in reaching the unavoidable conclusion that negotiations must recognize Iran’s right to nuclear research and utilization.

Making any prediction would be difficult, but the one thing that is becoming obvious is that the United States under the leadership of President Obama will not be taking any actions against Iran within a timeframe that would prevent their achieving nuclear status. The question, as far as the Administration of President Barack Obama is concerned, is can Israel be kept on leash and away from attacking Iran before the November elections. They are asking the wrong question for two reasons. The first is that as long as Israel has not attacked Iran all will be well going into the election. But, if it appears that Israel is still on the verge of taking action against Iran but being restrained by President Obama, many may be forced to consider President Obama’s foreign policy with an emphasis on his actions with Israel and interactions with Prime Minister Netanyahu. This could very well pose a problem for his reelection. Secondly, if Israel were to attack in September and be successful in destroying a reasonable percentage of the Iranian nuclear facilities with minimal losses of life on both sides and yet not start a huge war in the Middle East, then Iran will be completely off the table. This could even work in President Obama’s favor for reelection if he also took a position such that his threat of enforcing the Israeli attack should Iran respond, and Iran stand-down, then he could claim this was the plan all along with fair assurance that the Israelis would back his claim in gratitude for his backing, even if forced by circumstance. So, against the going logic and opinions of most of political punditry, an Israeli attack could be turned to President Obama’s favor. We will be able to see whether the second premise turns out to be true, as it is the most likely.

Beyond the Cusp