A Question for Netanyahu

The election results were a ray of hope and promise for many in the Zionist communities. But there is a question which must be asked of Netanyahu because if there is any chance that his intended direction has been indicated by bringing Livni into the coalition while also acquiescing to her every demand; then the Zionist should stop any celebrations and begin to worry that another Likud Prime Minister is headed to the dark side. What would be the indications that Netanyahu intends to fall before the pressures from the Europeans, United States President Obama backed by his recent appointees to be CIA Chief and Secretaries of State and Defense, the numerous leftist NGOs and the rest of the world support groups backing the Palestinian ploy by the Arab and Muslim world to destroy Israel?

It truly was a shocking revelation to read that Prime Minister Netanyahu has accepted Tzipi Livni into the coalition and agreed to grant her the Justice Ministry which was the expressed position sought by Yair Lapid and also granted her request to be the lead in negotiations with the Palestinian Authority as her position supporting surrendering most if not all of Judea and Samaria along with half of Jerusalem including all of the Old City as well as the Kotel which would make it next to impossible for Naftali Bennett and the Jewish Home to also enter such a coalition. The first question that comes to mind is how Netanyahu could form a coalition without compromising his promises to Livni. The first sign of the unthinkable may have been occurring right before our eyes as Netanyahu appears to be spending great amounts of time wooing Shelly Yachimovich and the Labor Party to join his coalition. Should Netanyahu succeed in his wooing of Yachimovich and the Labor Party he would be well on his way to forming that both sides of center coalition which has been the center of much chatter since the election. This would also fit in with the rumors that Netanyahu will go to whatever length is necessary to keep Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett out of the coalition. I know, how could Netanyahu fill out the rest of the needed Knesset seats to reach the minimum of sixty-one seats as even with Kadima along with Labor Party, Hatnuah and Likud-Beiteinu only gives him fifty-four?

That is where the unusual leadership by triumvirate of Shas comes into play. Despite the story fed to the media and membership of Shas that the three members of the triumvirate, Eli Yishai, Ariel Atias and Aryeh Deri, were equal and were working together there will always be the suspicion that not all members are truly equal. The truth is that Rabbi Ovadia Yosef as the spiritual guiding light is the true and undisputed true leader of Shas and he was the one who decided upon the triumvirate form of leadership in order to soften the inclusion of Aryeh Deri back into a leadership position immediately after he returned to politics after his conviction. This would likely mean that anything which Aryeh Deri decides for Shas will be supported by Rabbi Yosef and thus nobody would ever think to counter his decisions. Deri was well known to prefer Labor over Likud though he would ally with whichever was necessary to gain considerations for the Hasidic heart of Shas. It is this flexibility; some might say pragmatism, which has made Shas the coalition builder in Israeli history. Should Shas also join the above parties in a coalition, then Netanyahu would have his broad based coalition with sixty-five seats. The guarantor that this is Netanyahu’s desired outcome would be some generous deal made with Shelly Yachimovich in order to bring Labor into the coalition over her original denial of any possibility of her being in a coalition with Netanyahu.

 
Should this actually come to pass, then there are some additional questions which would soon surface. One of the foremost among them is what will Netanyahu do to keep such a coalition together with a number of his fellow Likud members probably having misgivings about their fellow coalition members? With Moshe Feiglin and Tzipi Hotovely and other Zionist and nationalist members within the Likud faction, how does Prime Minister Netanyahu expect to hold his coalition together and avoid losing a sure to follow vote of no confidence. Such would most certainly come attached to some piece of legislation made to satisfy either Tzipi Livni or Shelly Yachimovich or members of their parties by one of the parties not within the coalition, especially should such legislation either be detrimental to the Israelis residing in Judea and Samaria or other controversial subjects. Would Prime Minister Netanyahu purposely hold the members of the coalition to vote for anything which was brought before the Knesset by any coalition member? On the other hand, would Prime Minister Netanyahu deny members of the coalition bringing any motion which might challenge the coalition? And if either were the case, how would such a move be enforced? Would the coalition survive if Prime Minister Netanyahu challenged one of the other party leaders to hold their members to vote with the coalition or be removed from the Knesset and replaced with another minister appointed in order to enforce compliant voting? Would Prime Minister Netanyahu replace members of his own Likud Party in order to sustain his coalition? What would be the result from either of these actions? Such a coalition even if formed would appear on face value unsustainable. This may be conjecture but the possibility that Prime Minister Netanyahu may be headed in this direction is possible. This becomes even more likely if Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid hold to their agreement not to enter the coalition without the other, an agreement I believe both will truly honor despite what some, including Netanyahu, may think or even be counting on.

Beyond the Cusp

Time’s Up; Netanyahu’s Game Has Played Out

The importance of the vote today in the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, is of epic proportions. On this vote lies so many items in disparate areas all tied together around Prime Minister Netanyahu. Almost a fortnight ago, Prime Minister Netanyahu gave his word to Minister of the Knesset Yaakov Katz (National Union) that he would not oppose his Regulation Bill which would negate the Supreme Court ruling for destruction of five residential buildings in the Givat HaUlpana section of Beit El community should MK Katz postpone its introduction for a two week period. Well, MK Katz complied with the leader of the coalition, Prime Minister Netanyahu, and for his compliance, Prime Minister Netanyahu has gone back on his word and threatens to dismiss any coalition Minister who dares oppose his wishes and support the legalization legislation. This has already caused two of the member parties of the coalition, Yisrael Beytenu and Shas, to choose to be absent as they had previously decided they would support the Regulation Bill. Their absence removes any possibility that their parties would be thrown from the coalition. There are still some members of the Prime Minister’s own party, Likud, who plan to challenge his authority and support the bill. It will remain to see if Netanyahu follows through on his threat to remove those voting for the Regulation Bill. Those who have stated their intent to vote in favor despite the threat to their positions are Ministers Yuli-Yoel Edelstein, Gila Gamliel, Ayoob Kara and Daniel Hershkowitz.

So, why don’t we take a simple trip through the entire methods, manipulations, coercions and finagling done by Prime Minister Netanyahu in order to defeat those forces who had colluded to support the Regulation Bill and thus provide the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria some legal coverage against the political onslaught now being waged to destroy their communities, homes, lives, and in many cases livelihoods. When the destruction order first arrived at the front door of the Knesset after the Supreme Court decided that the five buildings in question in Givat HaUlpana, Beit El, the nationalist wing of Likud in concert with other nationalist Knesset members initiated a legislated solution to prevent the destruction and provide an alternative to future destructions. This was expected to be rejected by Defense Minister Ehud Barak and likely also Attorney General Yehuda Weinstein. Up to this case it had been assumed that Prime Minister Netanyahu was in agreement with the nationalist camp against the demolitions of communities in Judea and Samaria. This became the straw that would break the camel’s back. It also shined light on the real, true Netanyahu. Now the Prime Minister faced something he had been dancing deftly to avoid, actual legislation which had popular backing being introduced onto the floor of the Knesset with no conceivable way to prevent it short of preventing the demolition of HaUlpana by other methods. But that was a problem as Prime Minister Netanyahu was actually in favor of the demolitions and has secretively been favoring a unilateral disengagement from Judea and Samaria surrendering the West Bank to the Palestinian Authority in similar manner as previous Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. So, Prime Minister Netanyahu faced a difficult situation as if he were to come out of the closet and play his cards in favor of the demolition his coalition would collapse and he would be forced to call for elections. This was not something favorable and held some pit falls for Netanyahu.

Prime Minister Netanyahu realized at the very start that should he come clean and admit to favoring demolitions, he would face an impossible battle as his party, Likud, has stated in its platform its position against the demolitions. This meant he could not reveal himself before the next elections were held, but they are not scheduled for about another year and a half. What was he to do? I have to hand it to Prime Minister Netanyahu; he came up with a brilliant plan which forced some who thought they were in opposition to the presumed nationalism of the Prime Minister to join him or face electoral oblivion. Netanyahu instead of announcing a position on the Ulpana demolition claimed that what he wished he could do was impossible with the slight majority held by his coalition and in order to gain a stronger position he was going to call for new elections. The nationalists took this as a sign that Netanyahu was behind them and was going to take their nationalist message and present it to an approving public and form a stronger and even more nationalists, pro-settler government in order to legalize all the communities in Judea and Samaria and put an end once and for all to the political demolitions being pushed by the extreme leftists and the post-Zionists. This placed the Kadima Party in a position where they were facing a loss of power of immense proportions. The polling showed that Kadima would fall from their current twenty-eight seats down to as few as six or as many as possibly nine, either way they were going to lose BIG!

The new leader of Kadima, Shaul Mofaz, met with Prime Minister Netanyahu and they conceived of a way for Kadima to avoid political oblivion, have Kadima join the coalition. It is even likely that Netanyahu confided in Shaul Mofaz that he secretly supported not only the demolitions, but a complete, unilateral withdrawal from the vast majority of the so-called West Bank. This gave Prime Minister Netanyahu his necessary super-coalition which was completely safe from any threat from any group or parties threatening to pull down the coalition and force new elections. Now, with Kadima on board, Prime Minister Netanyahu could actually lose every single member’s support of Likud Ministers, his own party, and the coalition would still stand. With this huge number in the coalition, Netanyahu was free to come out of the closet and admit to his support of demolitions beginning with the Ulpana neighborhood. Sure, he threw the nationalists a bone promising to build ten residences for every one demolished knowing full well that between having to get it through the bureaucracy and resist leftist challenges in the courts, including the anti-settlement Supreme Court, the promised units would likely never be built. Now we need to look at what Prime Minister Netanyahu plans to do down the road with remaining time before the next elections.

I cannot see any path where Prime Minister Netanyahu remains in a Likud Party without the expulsion of its nationalist faction who could find a home with the Jewish Home Party. This would likely end the hopes of Moshe Feiglin to head an electoral ticket and become Prime Minister himself. Barring the nationalists departing Likud, expect that at some time as the election nears that Prime Minister Netanyahu will announce that he and Shaul Mofaz are reinvigorating Kadima as the true middle-of-the-road political party it was supposed to be with the two of them sharing the top position. Netanyahu will head the ticket under the Kadima Party which will also include Ehud Barak and his short-lived Independence Party joining the new and improved Kadima Party. This will leave the Likud Party in disarray with this announcement coming too close to the elections to allow them to get their house in order and take stock of who left with Netanyahu and who remains in Likud. I actually hope that the nationalists and others who support ending these demolitions or are opposed to a unilateral disengagement from Judea and Samaria giving the Palestinian Authority possession of vast stretches of land within their so-called West Bank regain control of the Likud Party. Even giving them all of the West Bank and even half of Jerusalem including all of the Old City will not end the terror war and claims of occupation by the Palestinian leadership. What comes next other than the likely unilateral disengagement or some similar form of complete surrender to the Palestinian terror machine is difficult to fathom, as if that would not be enough to endanger all of Israel sufficiently.

Would Netanyahu also give in to the Obama demands and return the Golan Heights to Syria once Assad has been removed and replaced by the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood? I would not bet against it at this point. Whatever Prime Minister Netanyahu has in mind, odds are it will be as surprising as was Prime Minister Ariel Sharon with his unilateral disengagement of Gaza which worked out so wondrously. One would think that the lesson of Sharon, Gaza and the ensuing rocket barrages and other difficulties would have taught even Netanyahu that giving land to the Palestinians in any manner is something that only will endanger Israel and her citizens, all of the citizens and not just the Jews. This move by Netanyahu to completely turn against those who elected him and break almost every promise he had made to MK Katz, the members of Likud, the coalition member parties, particularly Shas and Yisrael Beytenu, and to Israelis in general is heartbreaking and with any luck will take Prime Minister Netanyahu, Kadima Leader Shaul Mofaz, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and all those who follow their political lead to political oblivion and being unable to even garner sufficient votes to enable minimal seats in any future Knesset. I so dearly hope this is Netanyahu’s political Waterloo.

Beyond the Cusp

Choosing Likud Coming Primaries Between Netanyahu and Feiglin

The Likud primaries are rapidly approaching and the time to make a choice is just about on top of Likud members. In so many ways the words spoken by both Netanyahu and Feiglin are very similar, especially at those times that Netanyahu is not the Israeli Prime Minister. And that is where the comparison becomes somewhat muddled. Many believe that Netanyahu is one of the best orators in explaining the Israeli positions and in defining the overt threats facing Israel from state backed terrorists when he is running for office. So, who makes for the better choice to lead the party and very possibly become the next Prime Minister of Israel should Likud be chosen to form the next coalition, or win a majority outright (as if that is likely or even possible)? This is a more difficult decision than I will make it, but then I’m just going to make arguments and not actually choose, just present my opinions which are likely worth what you paid to read them, little to nothing. So, here goes.

As stated above, Netanyahu is very good at presenting and giving moving speeches supporting Israel as the Jewish State. He is fluent in both Hebrew and English, the latter serving him well in dealing with the United States and many European countries. Such glowing words would make one think that the choice would be easy, but not so fast. Feiglin is also well spoken and shows equal understanding as to Israeli problems and often expresses very similar positions as Netanyahu when campaigning. In so many ways the two men seem very similar so the difference is that we have witnessed one of them in the office of Prime Minister, twice, and the other has yet to hold that office. This makes the question simple; does one think that Feiglin would do a superior job as Prime minister than Netanyahu has performed in his two separate terms in the high office?

I have great and deep respect for Netanyahu. He served in one of the most elite of groups in the IDF and has served Israel with great dedication as an ambassador of exemplary abilities. It has only been when he holds the office of Prime Minister that he appears to fall short. I do not intend disrespect or to minimize the pressures, demands, and compromises that are demanded of a Prime Minister. With a Parliamentary system the Prime Minister has to be all things to all members of his coalition while also serving all the members of Israeli society. Anybody could easily be torn asunder from such competing pressures and factions pulling one in a dozen different directions all at once. I do not even wish to pretend I can understand serving in an office with so many competing demands where failing any one or two of them spell the end of the coalition and the end of being Prime Minister. Add that being Prime Minister of any coalition, even those rare times of emergency or great threat where Israel actually has a general consensus government, though those seem to fall apart the fastest or suffer greatly from divided leadership, is a tricky position requiring the Prime Minister to be a man who wears numerous hats and must wear them all well. Prime minister of Israel is not a job to be envied though it does seem that many think they can do it better than whoever is the current Prime Minister, and this goes for almost every government Israel has had for quite some time. I often think it is easier to be the leader of the opposition, though being the opposition leader does require a bit more than simply saying “No” to every action taken by the Prime Minister (Ms. Livni please take note).

What I guess I am aiming at is that I have found Netanyahu to serve Israel with greater skill when not holding the office of Prime Minister, but that has been true of many who have been Prime Minister. Would Feiglin prove to be a superior Prime Minister to Netanyahu? I do not know. What I am sure is that we have seen two periods with Netanyahu as Prime Minister but have obviously never seen Feiglin in that office. So, if one is satisfied with Prime Minister Netanyahu, then they have an easy decision and will likely support retaining Netanyahu as head of Likud. But what about people like myself who had hoped that Netanyahu would have performed vastly better the second time around and have only been disappointed with his results. What makes it even more disappointing is that as Prime Minister, Netanyahu has fallen victim to the same pressures from the same people and places as ruined his first time in office.

The problems once again came from the far left in Israel and the Democrat President of the United States. Similarly to Netanyahu’s first time as Prime minister he attempted to mollify the demands from the left, and even the far left, by surrendering to their demands as he attempted to satisfy everybody regardless of their intentions and be all things to all people. He granted and succumbed to the demands of the social protests this past summer seemingly without regard that the main goal of the protest leaders was to bring down his coalition. There was no possible path to satisfy those who only desire your head on a plate. He has also attempted to dance around the obvious problems that are President Obama and his intent to divorce Israel from the foreign policy of the United States as much as possible while not losing the American Jewish vote entirely. Since a large number of American Progressives place their loyalty to the Democrat Party above their ties to Israel, Jerusalem, and religious Judaism, this was an attainable goal for President Obama. Had Prime Minister Netanyahu actually stood up against the embarrassments heaped upon him by President Obama, he could have likely prevented much of the problem as there are still a majority of Jews in the United States that would have rallied to such a call.

So, we know exactly what we can expect from Netanyahu as Prime Minister. What we need to assess is whether we can expect and actually receive a better performance as Prime Minister from Feiglin. If the answer is a definitively affirmative, then obviously we need to place Feiglin at the head of Likud. If we answer that question negatively, then we need to retain Netanyahu as the leader of Likud. The real dilemma is for those of us who are in the position of not knowing whether or not Feiglin would be an improvement or not. Those of us in this predicament need to weigh the characters, strength of will, personalities, proclivities, and plain old chutzpah and choose the one who proves in our minds would be the superior choice for Prime Minister. If all else fails, you can go by the old adage of “better the devil you know than the devil you don’t know,” or do as I would and decide that we have tried Netanyahu as Prime minister twice and felt short-changed; so may as well try the new guy, Feiglin.

Beyond the Cusp