The ceasefire is still holding though the possibility of Hamas returning to firing rockets the length and breadth of Israel has slowly been ramping as Israel continues to refuse to commit to total surrender to Hamas granting them the entirety of their demands. It matters not what the result of the Cairo negotiations between Israel and Hamas produce as Hamas is at the cusp of realizing their main objective from the entire conflict orchestrated from the initial abduction and murder of three Israeli teens to the thirty-thousand plus rockets launched into Israel over the fifty days of on and off fighting interspersed with ceasefires which seldom lasted more than a day or two. The entire effort by Hamas had nothing to do with Israel beyond showing Hamas and their allies as the strong horse willing to stand toe-to-toe with Israel for an extended period of time and continue to fire rockets posing a threat to Israel. This was their entire campaign for the supposedly soon to be held elections by the Palestinians to elect their new leadership for the recently established unity government which allowed Hamas, and potentially Islamic Jihad, to become an integral party within the Palestinian Authority thus able to present candidates in the elections, the first for President since Mahmoud was last elected in January 2005 after which he has continuously cancelled all subsequently scheduled elections for the Presidency fearful of losing. Before the conflict, titled Defensive Edge by Israel, polling depicted a narrow Hamas leader Haniyeh victory over Abbas but not with an insurmountable lead. Since the conflict the Hamas position has been drastically reinforced with Haniyeh leading Abbas by a two-to-one ratio in polling taken since the last ceasefire and the negotiations begun in Cairo. This is very probably the main reason behind Abbas making threats to dissolve the unity government blaming the refusal by Hamas to accept proposed terms for peace presented by Abbas and insisting on Israeli surrender meeting their every demand or face a continuing war of attrition.
This presents a number of questions of which the first and most important is will Abbas permit elections with Hamas permitted to take part or will Abbas attempt to dissolve the unity government and thus cancel elections claiming the lack of opposition to his continuing as President. This has been the method of operation by Abbas starting in 2009 when he cancelled elections for President after Hamas had prevailed in elections to form the Palestinian parliament. Abbas again cancelled elections twice since then continuing on with a blind eye from the United States, the Europeans, the Arab League and the Sisi government in Egypt who fear having Hamas take the lead as president of the Palestinian Authority as that would provide the Muslim Brotherhood a base of operation from which to assault the Egyptian government. On the other side, supporting Hamas in their quest to take command of Judea and Samaria (West Bank) as well as Gaza by defeating Abbas and taking the Presidency of the Palestinian Authority are Iran, Qatar, Turkey and many of the rebel forces in Libya. Nobody has asked the leadership of ISIS but our bet is that they would prefer to have Hamas take the reins of the Palestinian government as they would likely see the Hamas recent conflict with Israel as preferable to Abbas and his reliance on negotiations as ISIS does not believe in negotiations with the West or Israel and would be favorable to the Hamas expressed desires to eradicate Israel and install a Sharia governance over all of the lands west of the Jordan River.
The pivotal question is what would be the reaction outside the Arab and Muslim worlds to a Hamas victory taking complete control over all of the Palestinian governance. It is likely that the European Union would recognize such a government as would the majority of the European governments as they would not be concerned with the threat such an election would pose to Israel. President Obama would likely confer with his good and close friend and confidant President Erdogan of Turkey which would most likely provide the necessary impetus for President Obama to support the election victory by Hamas just as he supported the election victory of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. There should be little surprise if President Obama offered to provide training and arms to the newly established Hamas Palestinian government even demanding that Israel recognize the election victory by Hamas and by doing so end the embargo on Gaza permitting them to establish a sea port and an international airport. The next question would be whether President Obama’s recognition of the newly elected government of the state of Palestine would also recognize whatever borders the Hamas government may claim. There would be little doubt that any Hamas government would claim their borders for Palestine to be the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River completely erasing the existence of the state of Israel. Where recognizing such a claim by Hamas would pose little if any problem for the vast majority of Arab and Muslim governments, how much of a problem it might pose in the Western capitals is another question. There would be some from within Europe who would readily recognize such claims while some might recognize the authority of Hamas to rule the Palestinian Authority, they might simply ignore the territorial claims by Hamas in that recognition while others would include their recognition and give it their approval, such as Norway who already offered to join with Turkey and build a port in Gaza for Hamas and Islamic Jihad whether Israel approved or not. With a world going head over heels to support and placate a Hamas governed Palestinian Authority and the eagerness with which the United Nations would take to recognizing the unified Palestinians as the newest member of the United Nations, at least in the General Assembly and also in the Security Council as it is likely that all the permanent members would at the least refuse to use their veto, even the United States and Britain, that after their admission with their claims for borders eclipsing Israel, how long before the United Nations began to remove Israel from every agency, agreement, convention and other recognitions as an actual member nation in the community of nations and finally revoked Israeli membership and refusing to recognize Israel ruling it an illegal entity and criminal amongst the nations of the world. What could Israel do after such an eventuality as having Canada defending you against a world gone mad has its comforts, it would not prevent the ensuing apocalypse.
So, what exactly could Israel do to battle against the rogue wave of world insanity working to dissolve the Jewish State? Granted that Israel had a number of treaties, conventions, committees, and even Article 80 of the United Nations Charter granting her license, deed and rights to the lands from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, these have not protected Israel from the ever growing animosities of a world riding full speed ahead back into a full on fury of anti-Semitism which includes demanding the destruction of Israel, the sole guarantor of the Jews right to defend themselves. The United Nations has in the past declared Zionism to be the equivalence to racism, has entertained motions to rescind the declaration which established the opportunity for Israel to come into existence, and has denounced Israel in its numerous committees and agencies almost as often as it has denounced the entire rest of the world since the establishment of the United Nations. No nation in recorded history has faced the bald faced animosity, bile, hatreds and violent intents from a world united in denial of Israel and the Jews rights to self-government and self-defense. Should a Palestinian election place Hamas at the head of the Palestinian Authority and they claim any borders which refuse to recognize the right of Israel to exist must immediately be met with a declaration of war by Israel against the Hamas government. Israel would need to immediately take whatever steps were required to arrest and detain the Hamas leadership immediately after they declare claim to all of Israel as Palestinian lands declaring Israel to be a nonentity. That is a declaration of war by any definition and Israel would be fully in her right to end a government on her borders which was bent on erasing her borders and slaughtering her people at their first opportunity. Israel must make known her intent to defend her existence and that any attempt by a Hamas led Palestinian Authority to claim lands or to threaten the lives of Israeli citizens will be regarded as an act of war and would be dealt with in just manner without hesitation and with all the vigor and force at Israel’s disposal. That statement of warning should be made clearly, openly and to include any nation which might choose to join Hamas in their defense or in any other way of support. Not pleasant, not simple, but unfortunately necessary when living in a world that has slid beyond the cusp of sanity into the realms beyond reason, virtue and righteousness.
Beyond the Cusp