Bibi, Poor Election Results, and Making a Coalition

Back when Benyamin Netanyahu called for new elections he was confident and thought he had made a tactical decision which would not only provide him with a strong coalition, but a comfortable coalition where any of the lesser parties which chose to join being unable to threaten the coalition with a vote of no confidence. He made a couple of serious miscalculations along the way, one before finally calling for new elections and the other subsequent to dissolving his relatively strong coalition confident of a better tomorrow. Netanyahu’s first mistake occurred when he first decided to call for new elections rather than face the difficulties of making a new budget and facing Iran and other threats without a stronger and more stable coalition. He then reversed himself when Kadima, facing possible oblivion if new elections were called, offered to join Netanyahu’s Likud led coalition adding an impressive twenty-eight to the coalition which promised to give it the stability Netanyahu desired. Unfortunately, Shaul Mofaz, the recently elected leader of Kadima, replacing Tzipi Livni, and Netanyahu had a falling out within a couple of months and Kadima pulled out of the coalition which drove Bibi to again call for new elections. There was a short period of indecision and within a week Likud executed a vote of no confidence with coalition partner Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beyteinu. This excess drama and indecision likely was just the initial sign of weakness and began his problems. Soon after dissolving the coalition, Netanyahu and Lieberman merged their two parties in the hopes of forging an unopposable center-right consensus party. This was the next step in the undoing of Netanyahu’s plan as the religious parties resented Lieberman and Yisrael Beyteinu. Then came the months of waiting for elections which soon became a long march towards mediocrity for the Likud- Beyteinu super party.

Then came the coup de grace during the campaign. For reasons which will be the raw meat for dissecting what not to do in a campaign, the senseless and viscous attacks by numerous members of Likud aimed at the Jewish Home Party, the one party that most observers would have thought would be a natural fit with Likud, inflicted harm on both parties though it appears that Likud was the greater harmed. There were the claims that the lead of Jewish Home, Naftali Bennett, was the difficulty as he had once been the Chief of Staff for Bibi which led to a messy split between the two. Some placed the problem with Bibi’s wife, Sara Netanyahu, as the one who had some difficulties with Bennett which drove the spite campaign. Whatever the source, the viciousness and pure undiluted bile heaped on Naftali Bennett and the Jewish Home Party drove many away from the Likud-Beyteinu Party as many nationalists were put off and dismayed by the attacks on another nationalist party. The attacks also did result in lower support for the Jewish Home Party as they had been designed to be. The result in the end was a falling off from a combined total of forty-two seats for Likud and Beyteinu in the previous Knesset to thirty-one seats in the new Knesset. This loss of eleven seats not only damaged the power for the new combined party but also will force the Likud-Beyteinu Party to rely on and be susceptible to the whims of even the smallest parties who they will end up depending on to form their coalition. The damage was so complete as to have been just short of the cusp of allowing for a left-leaning coalition being formed blocking Netanyahu from making a coalition and allowing for a social issues coalition instead of what Netanyahu hopes to build, a nationalist and capitalist bent coalition. There are so many good old sayings that could be utilized to cap off this article, but in the spirit of allowing everyone their own freedoms, unlike the mistakes made by Likud-Beyteinu with their limiting attacks, we will allow you to choose your own to finish with your favorite.

Beyond the Cusp

The Israeli Zionist Election Question

The Israeli election is fast approaching and the Israeli nationalists, often referred to as the Zionists, come in two types, religious and secularist. Usually these two groups tend to vote for political parties which are tailored and tooled to fit their exacting preferences. This election is apparently going to be somewhat different and, if the polls are accurate, there may be a fairly significant number of crossover votes and these two groups are ending up vying for many of the same voters. Part of this phenomenon is due to the persona of the new head of the Jewish Home (Bayit Yehudi) Naftali Bennett on one side and some dissatisfaction and mistrust of Likud leader, the current Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu. Then there are the usual new parties which are usually driven by one of two items, personality or hot button issue. There are three such new parties with two driven by their founders’ belief that they are the answer for all of Israel’s problems. One was started by former leader of Kadima, Tzipi Livni, who left Kadima after she lost the election to Saul Mofaz in the party’s primary. Another was started by ex-newscaster Yair Lapid who appears to be following in the same tracks that his father traveled from journalist become politician whose party achieved initial success making it into the Knesset for one election and failed thereafter. Time will tell if the younger Lapid will exactly mirror his father’s feats. The final one is Otzma Leyisrael which is headed by current MKs Michael Ben-Ari and Aryeh Eldad who split from their party after their faction lost the leadership positions.

There will be the usual contest between the two main sides as in every previous election pitting the liberal left socialists against those who have been attempting to remove the government from its heavy investment in the economy. The main subject that is separating these groups in this election is not actually economics but nationalism and those purporting the end of the Oslo Accords versus those who still hold out that peace is just the right offer away and that Mahmoud Abbas is an honest broker and the Oslo Accords are still relevant. It is this debate that has driven much of the election campaigning with secondary subjects being the place of women in the religious sector of society, whether to replace the deferment for religious males who are devoting their lives to the study of Torah and related writings, choosing a Prime Minister who would be capable of developing a more friendly and agreeable relations with United States President Obama avoiding the antagonism apparent between Netanyahu and Obama, and all the rest of the subjects that have been the center of recent Israeli elections. But my real curiosity tends towards the interesting and sometimes troubling history of current Prime Minister Netanyahu and the surprise of the election, Naftali Bennett and the Jewish Home Party, who has watched over the rise of the party which seemingly simply grew stronger the more criticisms they received from the rest of the other parties in the election.

The question that will be on the mind of what appears to be a relatively significant sector of the Zionist nationalist will be choosing between the known package of Likud and the reelection of Prime Minister Netanyahu or taking a chance on an unknown with Jewish Home Party leader, Naftali Bennett. Other than the diehard, leftist, post-Zionist, mostly secular voters who could never vote for anyone other than the Labor Party, the Arabists and pro-Palestinians who will support the Arabist parties, the Haredi who are religiously locked to vote for Shas, and the really hardcore leftist who will support Meretz, the majority will be deciding the election between Netanyahu and Bennett. What makes this even more interesting is that Netanyahu could have easily avoided the entire drama by simply making an offer to Naftali Bennett to publically state that their respective parties would form the core of a coalition of pre-Zionist nationalist government. Instead, Likud, most likely under the directions of Netanyahu, attacked Bennett directly as well as the Jewish Home Party. This has likely been one of the main motivating factors in driving some voters from supporting Likud to support Jewish Home. But what has been even more interesting is that there also appears to have been voters leaving Tzipi Livni’s party and Yair Lapid’s party as well as the most surprising, defections from the Labor Party who have also gone over to Jewish Home. Another oddity which has sent some looking for an alternative to Likud and Netanyahu in Bennett has been announcements even by members of the Likud Party that Bibi Netanyahu will seek to form a coalition, any coalition, as long as it does not include Naftali Bennett and the Jewish Home Party. Along with these statements have been others, some even by Netanyahu, which have declared that he is seeking to form a balanced coalition, or even a unity coalition, with as many parties from all views so he will have room to make decisions which would be seen as unfavorable to the nationalists in order to reach the goals he feels are achievable. This has made a number of nationalists nervous about whether or not Netanyahu can be trusted or are the suspicions that he might be ready to execute another disengagement similar to what happened when Prime Minister Sharon left Likud and formed Kadima in order to disengage from Gaza, this time in Judea and Samaria, possible valid. If this is what Prime Minister Netanyahu does after winning the election, it may be a very long time before anybody trusts Likud again and they will simply become another post-Zionist party. The fears that this is the Likud plan could push a change in votes that will be far more drastic than the polls have shown and could lead to Jewish Home and Bennett forming the next government. Such an eventuality is highly unlikely but still has a remote chance. Everything could turn simply by Prime Minister Netanyahu making one misstep and removing all doubt by stating he is ready to make painful sacrifices in order to reach a peace with Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinians. So, all we can do now is make our choices, vote on Tuesday, and wait to see the results.

Beyond the Cusp

Kadima’s Actions on Election Confusion or Grandstanding?

With the next Israeli elections tentatively scheduled for January 24 of next year, we enter the season where the political parties often take steps just to make the news cycle that just end up leaving most people scratching their heads asking, “What were you thinking?” The first off the mark this cycle appears to be Kadima. First there was talk of maybe bringing Ehud Olmert back to lead the ticket as he poles as the most likely politician to save Kadima from a near death election. Then some suggested bringing Tzipi Livni back as well and returning to their presumed dream team. Then they were going to try to hold yet another primary and find new leadership and finally they decided to instead appoint a committee to select its list for the next Knesset which is very likely to simply go with what they currently chose just a few months back. But this confusing run around the entire gamut of options only to return to pretty much where you started and decide that this was your best hope was far from the strangest actions taken by Kadima members.

In a move that is reminiscent of some of the odd decisions made by Livni when all she ever did was take the opposite side of anything that Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to pursue, there was an interesting display by some Kadima Ministers today. Ms. Livni took the meaning of opposition to heart and possibly a bit too literally and earned the moniker here of Ms. Just Say No. She would even oppose a position she had previously fought for should Prime Minister Netanyahu decide to take the identical actions. It was astonishing and got to be tediously predictable after a while. But a group of four Kadima Ministers of the Knesset, Orit Zuarets, Shlomo Molla, Akram Hasson and Nino Abesadze, took a little trip to the Muqata in Nablus for a meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Palestine Liberation Organization Secretary General Yasser Abed Rabo. It has been reported that all attempts to verify if this meeting was approved by the Israeli Government or the Prime Minister’s Office went unanswered and remains unknown.

Speaking for the group, MK Orit Zuarets stated that the trip was important, “especially now” with the announcement of the coming elections and the situation where the peace talks appear to have completely deadlocked. He stressed that at this time it was “important to highlight that we must not ignore the conflict between us and the Palestinians.” This trip which I would bet was not made with any previously sought permission or even informing the Prime Minister or anyone in the ruling coalition was more likely done in order to garner the top of the news cycle. Such antics begin to look appealing and necessary when your Party is facing elections where polling has indicated you will go from your current twenty-eight seats in the Knesset to very likely eight or less. This will leave most of those currently serving in the Knesset from Kadima out in the cold unless something drastic and epic occurs to change things. With this as their opening volley in what will likely be a string of desperate acts to hopefully stave off irrelevance, Kadima members are likely to be even more amusing than even those joining Yair Lapid in his jump into politics from news casting on Israeli television with his forming the Yesh Atid Party. And, of course, there is always Ehud Barak and his guarantee of misadventures. This is going to be a great follow-up of the United States Presidential Elections in November. That should be just about when the Israeli campaign hits high gear. I wonder if we will see American political advisors assisting those opposing Prime Minister Netanyahu as we saw the last time he was running for reelection as Prime Minister.

Beyond the Cusp