Turkey’s Erdogan and Russia’s Putin Ignore Obama’s Requests

The initial repercussions to President Obama dithering and retreating from enforcing his Syrian chemical weapons use “red line” have begun and the ramifications are far more damaging to world peace and security than anything that Syria’s Civil War could ever produce. The initial shot across the bow came from Turkey where Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated, “According to my plan, most probably I would be visiting Gaza in June.” Erdogan added referring to his intents to visit both Hamas leadership in Gaza and Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, “I place a lot of significance on this visit in terms of peace in the Middle East. I’m hoping that that visit will contribute to unity in Palestine.”

 

State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki responded to the news declaring that, “As we’ve said consistently, we oppose engagement with Hamas, a foreign terrorist organization which remains a destabilizing force in Gaza and the region. We urge all parties who share our interest in the creation of a Palestinian state to take steps that promote the resumption of peace talks between the Palestinians and Israel.” Additionally, Secretary of State John Kerry commented during his visit to Turkey that Prime Minister Erdogan’s trip to Gaza would be “better delayed” waiting until the time when the “right circumstances” existed. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan struck back indignantly stating in response to Secretary Kerry’s impositions that “we wish he had not said that.”

 

Now the United States and the Obama Administration are facing a situation of explaining to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu exactly what he gained and where were the promised reconciliations with Turkey that President Obama had implied as a promise should Israel apologize. The Israeli-Turkish relations remain in a deep freeze with the charges and other legal actions by Turkish citizens and government agencies proceeding apace despite the humbling position Netanyahu was forced into taking at the close of President Obama’s visit, the visit where the President had promised there would be no surprises. The result is a slightly weakened Israel who now has been forced into a submissive position with Turkey and appearing weaker to the entire run of nations in the Middle East and the rest of the Muslim World. The full ramifications of President Obama’s miscalculations and consistent demands on Israel along with his weakness showed Syria and his apparent subservience to the Muslim Brotherhood as he supports their rise to power resultant from the Arab Winter, Obama’s Arab Spring.

 

On another front which also has ramifications in Syria and throughout the Middle East comes from Russia. Despite the ramifications presented to Russian President Vladimir Putin by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on a recent visit in Moscow which advised that the selling of the anti-aircraft S-300 advanced missile systems to Syria thus changing dramatically the balance of power in the Middle East, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated in an interview with Lebanese-based Al-Mayadeen television, the Russian government “committed to the agreements” signed with Syria regarding the advanced missiles and will “fully carry them out.” Lavrov further explained, “We have no intention of breaking international law. However, we do not want our reputation as reliable suppliers of weapons to be affected.” These statements came two days after Prime Minister Netanyahu’s visit leaving no doubt whether the ramifications and effects on Israel were known and able to be part of the equation.

 

Further comments on what other driving influences were behind the Russian’s decision were recently provided by Russian parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee Alexei Pushkov. His supplementary information paints a troubling picture of the credibility possessed by President Obama and on his ability to influence anything concerning world affairs. Alexei Pushkov was quoted to say, “We’re opposed to no-fly zones, because they are the first step toward aerial attack. Syria asked Russia to help it defend itself from aerial assault.” He also went further in explaining that Russia’s decision to send S-300 missile systems to Syria is, in part, a message to the United States. A more forceful message was also made with the deployment of at least twelve warships to patrol near a Russian Navy base in Syria. This was likely to be a message to all parties including NATO members and Israel not to interfere in Syria as Russia will act to defend their interests.

 

Both of these situations cast strong aspersions on the ability of President Obama to apply pressure or power in any situation anywhere in the world. This is an obvious reaction to President Obama’s timidity concerning the reported use by Syrian troops’ use of chemical weapons. The rules of unintended consequences applies to these actions which were primarily resultant of President Obama’s inept mishandling over the Syrian red line threat yet Israel will also pay a hard price as well. Reinforcing these feelings were also the well documented examples of his slow and tepid response to any military situation. These include but are not limited to President Obama taking months to approve the mission against Osama bin Laden after he was advised that all was prepared and certainty of success was extremely high, his complete lack of concern in addressing the situation in Benghazi where the American Ambassador to Libya Stevens and three others were murdered when had immediate actions been taken or even proper security increased in a timely manner after receiving requests for more readiness, and the President dithering and almost losing the opportunity to interdict Somali pirates holding American hostages. One more item which has the potential to have devastating consequences is the Iranian drive for nuclear weapons. How is it possible for any world leader concerned over the Iranian nuclear program take seriously President Obama’s promise that he will act if such becomes necessary. He did not act in Benghazi, nor did he act after the Syrian use of chemical weapons, he took close to six months to pull the trigger on the Osama bin Laden raid, so how could anyone expect a timely response to prevent the Iranians from attaining not just one nuclear device but tens or even hundreds of such devices before President Obama even begins to consider acting. This threat does not only pose a large problem for Israel as it also has serious ramifications for Saudi Arabia and the other members of the GCC as well as Europe, though the Europeans have blinders on and refuse to even notice any threat. The world is facing the same type of threats that were evident towards the end of President Carter’s term in office with the Iranian Hostage Crisis, a Middle East on fire, and a Soviet threat spreading throughout much of the planet. The main difference is we will have four full years of these ramifications and not just ten to fifteen months as was the case with Jimmy Carter. President Obama will very likely fulfill the prediction some who were at the time dismissed as alarmist pessimists when claiming that he would be another President Carter except on steroids. If even the slightest possibility exists that such may prove true, that should scare the life out of anybody, it sure does many of us here at BTC.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Kerry and Abbas Meet Today in Turkey

Here we go one more time. It is not like whatever is decided will be the main theme for restarting the so-called peace process as whatever it is it will end with the same disappointment for the world when Israelis refuse to surrender their entire country to Arab rule. The presumed theme this time is how to energize the Palestinian economy thus making agreements more viable. The problem is that the talks aimed at improving the Palestinian economy will be crafted to carefully avoid one subject, the kleptocracy which has ruled over the Palestinians since the return of Yasser Arafat after the Oslo Accords. Nobody ever mentions the million if not billions of dollars nestled away in European banks in the accounts of Mrs. Arafat. Nobody mentions the others who have benefited monetarily at the expense of the Palestinians. Of course there will be mention of the Israeli withholding tax incomes collected by them presumably for the Palestinians despite their having been released over a month ago when the Palestinian Authority made their desperate plea for more treasure from the entire world to repair their shortfall and inability to meet the payroll. This brings into the argument the fact that the Palestinian government has on its payroll an inordinate percentage of the population and includes many Hamas employees in the Gaza government. But there will be the economy destroying Israeli checkpoints which prevent free traffic of goods. Abbas will turn every discussion into a point of how it is the Israelis who are preventing the Palestinian economy from blossoming. No mention will be made that with Israeli assistance the Palestinians have one of the highest standards of living in the non-oil producing Arab world and that despite any difficulties their GDP has grown faster than the rest as well. Surprisingly to many, the Gazan economy has been even far healthier under Hamas than the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority. This is actually due to the odd fact that Hamas has far less corruption and graft as Hamas is funded largely through fees and taxes upon goods brought through the smuggling tunnels. It almost seems completely lacking in logic to claim that Hamas provides greater economic opportunity through honest government than does the Palestinian Authority seems to be able of providing.

Eventually Secretary of State Kerry will likely decide to agree that the economic difficulties are mostly due to Israeli malevolence and attempt to move on to restarting the peace negotiations. This is where the groundwork of blaming Israel will be utilized by Abbas to claim injury and that he will require a number of steps to be taken by the Israelis in order to prove their honest intentions to act fairly and that they truly seek a real and just peace. Then will Abbas start to list the preconditions which he fully knows will prevent the possibility of any talks ever being recommenced. All the parties to this dance already are familiar with these preconditions and are aware that they are a fairly complete list of every of the final status disagreements demanding full Israeli surrender. A partial list include the 1949 Armistice Lines be used as the basis for the border (also misnamed the 67 border), Palestinian Capital to include all of East Jerusalem including all of the Old City and Temple Mount, the removal of all Jews from Palestinian territories, the release of most if not all Palestinian terrorists and prisoners from Israeli prisons, the submitting a map showing the final borders proposed by Prime Minister Netanyahu, and the two biggest one which are a complete building freeze in claimed Palestinian lands, and the “Right of Return” for five million plus Palestinian refugees into Israel itself given full rights as citizens. There has also been one more precondition which, like the building freeze came from the mouth of President Obama in his abortive attempts believing Israel needed to be forced to negotiate rather than Abbas and the Palestinians being the ones blocking negotiations, comes from Secretary of State Kerry’s statements to Abbas during their previous meetings that Israel transfer all of Areas B and a large portion if not all of Area C from any Israeli controls over to complete and total Palestinian control. It is very likely that Secretary John Kerry will be a sympathetic captive to Abbas and his claims of Israeli intransigence as Kerry is another believer that it is Israel who has prevented peace talks and that Palestinians are simply more victims of Western, in this case Israeli, aggressive policies and domination. Every accusation Abbas will give as evidence of Israeli acts of aggressions and colonialism will be naively received by Secretary Kerry as confirmations of his preconceived notions fitting the progressive model of Western oppressions and colonialism. Perhaps Secretary Kerry should read some history of the British Mandate period and learn about the formation of Transjordan out of 78% of the Mandate Lands which were to have formed the Jewish State and how Israel has also been one of the main victims of Western colonialism and that the current insanity of attempting to form another Arab state out of the remaining 22% of the British Mandate lands is yet one more colonialist theft of land set aside by the League of Nations and confirmed by the United Nations Charter in Article 80. But often the truth falls secondary to personal preconceived notions.

Beyond the Cusp

Warning for Israel as Kerry Implements Abbas’s Wishes

If early reports are to be believed, United States Secretary of State John Kerry’s meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was agreeable and revolved around restarting the peace process and what needs to happen in order to persuade Abbas to return to the negotiations. Secretary Kerry has insisted that Abbas give up his preconditions of an Israeli building freeze, right of return for millions of refugees, and a return to the pre-June 1967 borders. One would think that having Mahmoud Abbas back away from his insistence upon such preconditions would remove those as obstacles and that is true for as far as it goes. The problem arises when one pays attention to the details of the results of the meetings. The small bits which have been mentioned point to some agreements between Kerry and Abbas on certain items which would be desirable to accomplish before the start of actual negotiations, though these items are not being labeled as preconditions, just things that should be accomplished before negotiations start.

The first of these items which have been hinted are for Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu present Secretary Kerry with a map showing what will be the borders for the Palestinian State and to reach an agreement on what should be the desired goal, but of course this will not have any relevance or appearance to the pre-June 1967 borders. Kerry and Abbas are also apparently in agreement that Israel be required to release a number of terrorists from Israeli prisons before the resumption of negotiations. President Abbas was quoted stating that prisoner releases were a “top priority” upon which everything else was dependent. Thus far no number has been discussed but one can figure that Secretary Kerry will most likely push Netanyahu as hard as he is able to meet the fullest numbers of Mahmoud Abbas’s desired numbers. Also mentioned was that the Palestinians could not abide by any Jewish construction in Judea, Samaria and eastern Jerusalem, particularly Israeli planed project in E1 area between Jerusalem and Maale Adumim as this would isolate Jerusalem.

These discussions were not the most troubling though they do provide a view of a coming problematic series of negotiations with Secretary Kerry even before negotiations with Abbas can even begin. This was further amplified when one learns of some of the offers which Secretary Kerry was reported to have plied Mahmoud Abbas to return to negotiations. These were offers initiated by Secretary Kerry and were not in response to anything asked, demanded or even stated as a wish by Abbas. These are just more items being suggested by members of the Obama Administration who appear to enjoy seeing if they can invent demands on Israel which are even more outlandish and extreme than the ones emanating from the Palestinians themselves. These new ideas proposed by Secretary Kerry to be conditional for the restart of negotiations were for Israel to surrender much or all of Area B to Palestinian control and be included in Area A which is under complete Palestinian control and forbidden to IDF troops, Israeli civilians or any manner of Israeli control. Kerry also promised to have all of the tax funds Israel is holding be turned over to the Palestinians immediately and that Secretary Kerry and the Obama Administration would assure that these funds never be withheld or delayed again in the future. Even more troubling is the indications that Secretary Kerry is proposing that the Palestinians be granted jurisdiction over lands currently within Area C which is currently under complete Israeli control and beyond Palestinian reach. Area C were the lands which were originally considered to be the areas which Israel would retain and would never be granted to the Palestinians when the Oslo Accords were first negotiated and implemented. This plan also would allow for the Palestinians to be allowed to build with relative ease and mostly unabated wherever they had a need within Area C. So, Kerry is by implication of these moves to grant the Palestinians with total right to build anywhere within Judea and Samaria and East Jerusalem while curtailing any Israeli control or rights to these lands.

Kerry apparently wishes to provide the Palestinians with control and freedoms throughout the contested areas while forcing Israel from any influence or rights in these areas. This would inevitably lead to the slaughter of the Israeli living in Judea and Samaria and would inevitably lead to the surrender of all the contested areas to Palestinian rule without any need for further negotiations. Abbas would simply have to sit across from Netanyahu and repeatedly claim to have to consult after every point is brought up for discussion, leave for consultation for a couple of weeks, return and decline to accept any offer and simply build the Jews back beyond the Green Line. The question then would be how much further Secretary Kerry with the full backing of the Obama Administration would try to force Israel to surrender? Would Abbas once again be boasting on how he would build the Palestinian capital in all of Jerusalem as he had when former Prime Minister Olmert was making ever more generous offers of land for empty promises? The promises and gifts which Secretary Kerry is proposing to Abbas are beyond anything which Israel can allow if there are to be real and productive negotiations. Kerry cannot be allowed to give away the store as if Israel was having a going out of business sale.

Prime Minister Netanyahu must do more than simply tell Secretary Kerry that he has no deal and that if Secretary Kerry honestly believes that negotiations are simply supposed to be Israel granting the Palestinians anything and everything their dark little hearts’ desire, perhaps he should check with President Obama whose recent message to President Abbas was to drop the preconditions while also pointing out the settlements were not an obstruction to peace. The Prime Minister had also better make sure that MK Tzipi Livni understands the limits and what areas are off limits and beyond her power to surrender in negotiations. There have also been rumor that MK Livni has concluded that the Israeli insistence to be recognized as the Jewish State is an unnecessary demand and thus one she is willing to surrender away. It has been reported that a Western source well-versed in the diplomatic contacts saying Livni “has become convinced that Israel’s insistence on this condition could prevent the resumption of negotiations, and did not rule out the position presented to her, according to which the most Israel can receive from Abu Mazen is a recognition of the solution of two states for two peoples.” Without this point being recognized there can be no insistence that terrorism and violence to liberate the rest of Palestine cannot be made honestly as releasing the Palestinian leadership from making this recognition is the sole route to defining the lands contained within the final agreed borders are truly Israeli lands and not just more Palestinian lands to be liberated. Without the recognition of Israel as the Jewish state there is no two nations side-by-side; there is only current Palestine and to be liberated Palestine side-by-side as far as Fatah, Hamas, and the Arab world are concerned. That is the reason Israel must insist on recognition as the Jewish state if the violence is to be ended. And that is also the reason that Secretary Kerry needs to be sent packing well chastised with his tail between his legs never to return as long as he holds the concept that peace means Israeli complete and total surrender and subservience to the Palestinians and the Arabs. Never Again means Not Now, Not Ever will Israel surrender and allow the Jews to be made homeless again.

Beyond the Cusp