Beyond the Cusp

March 1, 2014

A Tale of Two Potential Conflicts

Filed under: 1949 Armistice Line,1967 Borders,Act of War,Administration,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab League,Arab World,Arabs,Armed Services,Ayatollah,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollahs,Blood Libel,Borders,Chuck Hagel,Civil War,Civilization,Condemning Israel,Conflict Avoidnce,Covert Actions,Ditherer in Chief,Divided Jerusalem,Domestic NGOs,Europe,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Fatah,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,Former Soviet Republic,General Assembly,Government,Green Line,Hamas,Hassan Rowhani,Hate,Hezballah,History,Holy Sites,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Pressure,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Jerusalem,Jerusalem Day,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Home,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,John Kerry,Judea,Judean Hills,Kiev,Mahmoud Abbas,Middle East,Military,Military Intervention,Military Option,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Muslim World,Muslims,Netanyahu,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Weapons,Old City,Oppression,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Pressures,Partition Plan,Peace Process,Permanenet Members,Pogroms,Politics,President Obama,President Vladimir Putin,Russia,Russian Pressure,Sanctions,Secretary of Defense,Secretary of State,Security Council,Soviet Union,Taqiyya,Temple Mount,Terror,Threat of War,Ukraine,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Veto Power,Waqf,War,Western World,World,World Opinion,World Pressures,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 4:07 AM
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Of all the potential flashpoints existing in the world, we would like to compare and contrast two separate potential conflicts; the possible intervention in the political unrest in the Ukraine by Russia and the possibility that Israel might intervene to attempt to address and mute the several threats across numerous fronts including Hezballah, Hamas and their sponsor Iran. Where any Israeli action against the growing threats made out of Iran would also require that Israel to take into consideration how they would address the additional arms that Iran has direct influence and could turn loose to attack Israel utilizing the tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of rockets and missiles ranging through the gamut from Katyusha and Grad rockets to Scud, Fajr and Zelzal-2s. The questions in each case run the full range from what would be the reactions of the United Nations to reactions from the major powers and other significant groups and entities.

 

Starting with the possibility of a Russian intervention in the Ukraine, what are the various scenarios and resultant ramifications. It is very possible that the Russians will be able to claim that their intervention is in response to requests from the people of the Ukraine who saw the overthrow of the government as a direct threat to their interests and safety. Such a request could easily be made by the majority Russian citizens living in the eastern and southern provinces of the Ukraine who have made clear their preference for the Ukraine to align with Russia over aligning with the European Union. There are reports that the Russians have placed a large force on their border with the Ukraine including fighter and other aircraft wings which would be necessary to assist with any military intervention. United States President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry and Secretary of Defense Hagel have all made statements warning the Russians that the United States Administration is opposed and demands that they not enter or otherwise interfere with the political process currently occurring in the Ukraine. The odds that Russian President Putin will heed such a warning and have it influence his decisions are basically nil. Much of this has to do with the complete lack of the United States to back earlier warnings given to Syria when American President Obama announced his red-line and serious consequences on Syrian President al-Assad against his deploying chemical weapons. The complete ineffectiveness of the American threat of serious consequences resulting in dithering and equivocation by President Obama leading to inaction and a stalemate which was almost painful to witness and was thankfully brought to a definitive end when President Putin intervened proposing the confiscation and destruction of al-Assad’s chemical weapons arsenal granting President Obama a way to climb down from the embarrassment of being caught on his own petard.

 

Should the Russians intervene in the Ukraine the world is most likely to sit on their hands and not offer even the mildest rebuke. The truth is that the Russians, especially under President Putin’s leadership, are sufficiently feared and retain sufficient threat to cause any sane and reasoned person or nation to carefully consider if the Ukraine is really worth their potentially confronting the Russians and challenging President Putin. Furthermore, as the Russians are one of the permanent nations on the Security Council and possess a full right of vetoing any actions or proposals presented for consideration by that body, there is absolutely no possibility to condemn any Russian actions in the Security Council. The possibility of Russia being rebuked by the General Assembly is one of the most laughable proposals anybody could ever make. The General Assembly often appears like it exists for denouncing the United States, Israel and even the European nations while forgiving any transgressions by the entirety of the non-free and third world nations. The end result of a Russian intervention in the Ukraine would likely be very similar to the results decades ago when the Soviet Union rolled tanks and troops into the rebellious republic of Czechoslovakia on August 21, 1968, bringing the reforms and attempt to move out from under the Soviet thumb by Czechoslovakia with nary a significantly effective complaint from the entire world. Putting it succinctly, Russia could walk into the Ukraine and annex the entire nation reestablishing Russian control of the entirety of the Ukraine and outside of any demonstrations by Ukrainians there would be little effective protest. The resistance by any Ukrainians would be short lived and ended with whatever brutality was deemed necessary as that is the Putin way.

 

In the other situation, the cacophony of denunciations and demands for the world to completely condemn Israel would be deafening and seemingly universal. There would be a race between the different nations to bring condemnations of Israel before the General Assembly and the Security Council would be in emergency session before the sun set and possibly before the jets returned from a strike on Iran. There would be claims upon claims quoting International Law as requiring the condemnation of Israel for their wanton assault on another United Nations member nation. The justification which Israel could offer would never be given the slightest consideration in the rush to condemnation. But is such condemnation appropriate or would Israel have a right and justifiable reasoning behind such an attack that would be backed by International Law? Surprisingly to most, the answer is a definitive yes. The Iranian leadership including Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini, numerous Imams, many of the Ministers from the Iranian Parliament and numerous other members of the leadership both political and religious have publically called repeatedly for the annihilation of Israel. There have been large assemblies of Iranians, often weekly on Friday after services where the Imam likely gave a sermon demonizing Israel and calling for Jihad to reclaim Islamic lands, who chanted in unison repeating the chant often spoken from the podium by a high government or religious official calling out, “Death to Israel” as well as religious chants proclaiming the supremacy of Allah and their dedication to serve Allah often by actions to destroy the Jewish State. Speeches given by leading government leaders at parades and other events which almost always include martial demonstrations such as parading missiles on launchers in parades these leaders claim that the military strength displayed will soon be loosed on Israel destroying the Zionist Entity. These provocations, if they can be believed as actual statements of intent and the probability of their being a true forecast of actions exists, then Israel would have sufficient cause to attack Iran to destroy the Iranian ability to make war upon Israel under International Law. That is the crux of the argument behind the threats to strike the Iranian nuclear sites and the same arguments would also hold for an Israeli strike on Iranian military targets.

 

Where Israel would face a series of severe threats would be from the terror forces which are available to carry out any Iranian calls for attacks on Israel. These include minimally Hezballah and Hamas and could also include terror forces in the areas under the control of the Palestinian Authority, Judea and Samaria, also called the West Bank. This very likely was one of the subjects which was discussed when Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas visited Tehran, Iran recently. Such would most definitely have come up if Chairman Abbas was requesting any funding or other assistance from the Iranians, something which is very likely as Abbas appears to be incapable of visiting anywhere and not begging for funding. Where Israel would be hard-pressed in making an argument for attacking the Palestinian Authority areas, they would easily be able to make a convincing argument concerning both Hezballah and Hamas as both have left no doubt that their intent is the destruction of Israel and the genocidal slaughter of every Jew, often referred to as Zionists, residing in Israel no matter their political persuasions. The reality of any Israeli attack is that you would be able to count the number of nations that would actively support the Israelis would likely be countable on your two hands. Bless United States, the Czech Republic, Panama, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau and especially Canada (with a salute to Prime Minister Harper). These were the only nations which found the nerve and good conscience to vote against recognition of the Palestinian Authority as a non-member state. Israel would face a boycott from the European Union and the Arab League would be red-faced in angry denouncements. Israel might not even be able to count on having the United States defend them with their veto in the Security Council. It might even be prudent for Israel to resign their membership in the United Nations which for the vast majority of its recent history has been the place Israel could go to be denigrated and denounced for her audacity to exist. The differences between a Russian military intervention in the Ukraine and Israel acting in her own self-interest and defense would be diametrically opposite in act and reasoning. Some things are only remarkable in their obvious predictability as in their lack of moral conscience and convictions.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 3, 2014

Abbas Lays Plan to Turn American Public Against Israel

The somewhat brilliant idea behind Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas’s plan is that the offer is one that United States Secretary of State is very likely to jump at accepting it blindly without any consideration for the possible down-sides and future difficulties it will most assuredly spawn. Abbas has suggested that he will accept to have a demilitarized Palestinian state with the IDF initially tasked with preventing any terrorist activities and defending the Palestinians from outside aggressions. After five years the IDF will have been phased out and replaced by NATO, read United States, troops who will be permitted to remain indefinitely, a length of time that would likely be adjusted to speed up the transition to sometime during year three. One of the main reasons behind Abbas proposing this plan is that he is fully aware that without some external security force to defend him against suffering the exact same fate that the Palestinian Authority did in Gaza, he would soon be deposed as the Palestinian President by Hamas and other presumably more radical terrorist groups who would waste little time in executing Abbas and most of the other current Palestinian Authority leadership. So, in actuality the NATO troops who would be tasked with providing security throughout the Palestinian state would actually end up fulfilling two functions, the first as protectors of the Palestinian Authority leadership and the second to provide targets for assaults and murderous attacks by the terrorists.

 

I realize that the two disparate functions at first would appear contradictory. That will be cleared up as we inspect the real motivations behind this apparent and sudden change of heart and apparent desire to make compromises. The initial driving force behind the newly accommodating Mahmoud Abbas is his realization that he might be able to game the system being put in place if only he can wrap his plot up with a pretty enough bow that Secretary Kerry will grab the ring and run with it never even suspecting he was being played. Once this plan for providing Israel with sufficient assurances their security would be well protected by sufficient presence of non-Palestinian forces and at the same time satisfy, and thus removing, Israeli Prime Minister’s demand that the Palestinian state be demilitarized, then there can come either a totally staged or instigated confrontation, likely series of confrontations over a week or two, where evidence can be produced revealing inappropriate use of excessive force along with the death of innocents including children, a ploy previously used in the French media report of the al-Dura murder by IDF forces engaged with Palestinian forces or the Jenin massacre which the United Nations ended up investigating and disproving all the Palestinian claims. The timing of this staged event and ensuing outrage will likely come mere weeks or even days before the opening session of the United Nations General Assembly so the Palestinians can present their grievances to the world in order to get backing for the removal of the IDF forces earlier than agreed to in the Kerry framework and hurriedly put NATO, read American, troops as peacekeepers and security forces.

 

The changing of the guard in the Palestinian areas will be a somewhat tumultuous series of events which will likely leave open a number of opportunities for terrorists to strike within Israel before everything has settled in. Then comes the six to ten months of peaceful calm leading the NATO American troops to let their guards down and putting aside any suspicions or fears that they were entering a hostile environment. The aggressions aimed at the foreign troops will start small and not be fatal but will cause little alarm. The Palestinians will slowly elevate the levels of violence and frequency of attacks slowly with intermittent periods of calm implemented in order to prevent the situation from boiling over quite yet. Eventually there will be an incident in which one of the NATO troops is killed. The situation surrounding his or her death will be murky and unclear leaving doubts as to who was responsible or if the soldier in question simply was somewhere he should not have been. There will also be charges against some of the troops for improper behavior such as rapes and other indiscretions and the Palestinian leadership and supporting sections of the population feigning great indignations. Eventually the suggestion will be made and applied to make the patrols manned by Palestinian security police alongside the NATO forces under the reasoning that the presence of the Palestinians can assist in defusing any confrontation and assure that Palestinian sensitivities are protected and certain lines are not crossed.

 

At a predetermined time these associate security forces will make themselves scarce just before an attack by terrorists is launched on the NATO troops. Should there be any Palestinian individuals who are suspect of being too friendly and working with the NATO forces, they too will be murdered in some of these attacks. The initial assault will take place over a three to five day span with as many as ten to twenty such attacks and double to triple that many fatalities. Then Mahmoud Abbas will make some speech and everything will return to a quiet calm. These episodes will come every four to six months initially and slowly ramp up until there are four or five every month with at least one being a serious terrorist attack which will target a NATO instillation, base or staging post with the casualties being considerably greater resulting from these attacks. On rare occasions the Palestinians will capture one of the terrorists and place them on trial resulting in their being executed for their purported crimes. The suspected terrorist will never be allowed to be interrogated by the NATO forces and will likely be some unfortunate innocent or a member of a rival terrorist group of Fatah such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad or other group or family force. The aim of this entire scenario will be to drive a wedge between the American people and Israel eroding the current levels of support Israel enjoys from the American public. This situation will play right into the hands of those who harbor anti-Semitic hatreds as it will prove their charge of Israel making American men and women fight and die in their place fighting the Israeli and Jewish enemies. If anyone thinks this is impossible, all you need do is watch many of the major liberal arts universities such as the California University System, Columbia and Harvard where the campus Hillel House actually voted to back the BDS (boycott, divestment and sanctions) movement which target Israel for their supposed apartheid and genocidal treatment of the Palestinians and their refusal to allow the formation of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital city.

 

Numerous campuses throughout the United States, Europe, Canada and other Western nations hold annual Israel Apartheid Week, Palestinian Solidarity Celebrations and other anti-Israel, anti-Zionist and anti-Semitic events replete with moralistic plays, Apartheid Walls, Faux Checkpoints and other distortions all designed to discredit Israel and accuse Israel and the Jewish students by association of crimes against humanity, overt control of media and entertainment, inordinate influence over the United States Congress along with national parliaments and ruling bodies worldwide, and numerous other hate filled tropes. It must be remembered that these very same students who are being influenced by these events and the supportive literature which is often disseminated on campuses will be the leaders of society in a decade or two and some who had their beliefs and opinions of Israel are already out in the government and institutions of higher learning as well as public schools, newspapers, television and other media corrupting the message slanting everything to serve to hold the Palestinians up as oppressed and disadvantaged victims of the fascist, colonialist Israeli Jews. What surprises many is that a fair number of Church diocese and synods have had their board of directors infiltrated and populated by a majority of individuals who support the BDS movement and other organizations along with numerous NGOs all united in a common front to denounce and attempt to eventually extinguish the Jewishness of the state of Israel and make it just another Arab Muslim state of the Middle East. Should America’s men and women who are serving their country during the prime of their lives become the daily targets for terrorists while on mission presumably to defend Israel, these same indoctrinated masses will use these deaths as their cause celeb of which they will talk loudly while also carrying a big stick. This is very probably close to the intentions planned by Mahmoud Abbas and is pushing his sudden acquiescence with Kerry’s efforts after spending the past six months plus deriding Secretary Kerry and denouncing his plans as untenable and being crafted in congruence with the Israelis to destroy the hopes of the Palestinians.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

January 18, 2014

There Are No Viable Peace Plans Going Forward

Filed under: 1967 Borders,24/7 News Reporting,Absolutism,Administration,AFP,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Antiaircraft Weapons,AP,Apology,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab World,Arabs,Avigdor Lieberman,BBC,Ben Gurion,Blood Libel,Cave of the Patriarchs,Civilization,Condemning Israel,Conflict Avoidnce,Defend Israel,Defense Minister,Divided Jerusalem,Domestic NGOs,Drones,Equal Rights,Equal Treatment,Europe,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Forced Solution,Foreign Funding,Foreign Minister,Foreign NGOs,Fox,General Assembly,Government,Green Line,Hate,Hevron,History,Holocaust,Holy Sites,IAF,ICC,ICJ,IDF,Internal Pressures,International Court of Justice,International Criminal Court,International Politics,Intifada,Intifada,Islam,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Media,Jerusalem,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Home,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,John Kerry,Jordan River,Jordan Valley,Joseph’s Tomb,Judea,Judean Hills,Kever Yosef,Kever Yosef,Knesset,Land for Peace,Machpelah,Mahmoud Abbas,Mainstream Media,Media,Media Bias,Middle East,Military Option,Muslim World,Muslims,Myth,Oslo Accords,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Pressures,Partition Plan,Peace Process,PLO,Politics,Pre-Conditions,President Obama,Prisoner Release,Promised Land,Ramallah,Recognize Israel,Right of Return,Samaria,Secretary of State,Security Council,Separation Barrier,Settlements,Six Day War,Statehood,Temple Mount,Third Intifada,Threat of War,Tomb of Rachel,Tomb of the Patriarchs,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,West Bank,Western Wall,World Opinion,World Pressures,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 3:33 AM
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There are rumors of plans and it is likely that some of these rumors and stated plans might actually be under consideration, though thus far only Secretary of State Kerry and his assembled battalion of experts and a collection of Palestinian leadership have remained completely consistent, though consistence may not exactly be helpful. The Palestinian’s united front can be told in a few sentences and starts with the complete rejection of everything Secretary Kerry has proposed. The Palestinians have been no less accommodating to anything that Israel has stated rejecting every single item Israeli leaders have suggested. The Palestinian official spokespeople have very consistent demands including the universal right of return for five million descendants of the refugees from the 1948 mostly voluntary departure of Arabs from the lands where Israel had declared their sovereignty and the combined forces of at least a half dozen Arab State’s Armies stood perched on the borders ready to launch a genocidal assault with the intent of utterly destroying every vestige that was Israel. The Mufti of Jerusalem and the commanders of the various Arab forces called on the Arabs residing within Israeli borders to depart so that they could simply slaughter every single human they encountered positive that they were not Muslims and promised them a share of the spoils taken from the defeated Jews upon their return after the glorious and inevitable victory, a victory that miraculously never came to fruition. They have also refused to neither ever recognize Israel as the Jewish State nor give up their so-called right to resistance, another word for terrorist activities. The Palestinian spokespersons also demand all of Eastern Jerusalem and every speck of dust that was lost to the Israelis by Jordan as a result of Jordan joining the Six Day War in 1967 on the second day of the fighting. And finally, though not the final demand coming from the Palestinians, they have stated their complete and total refusal to allow a single Israeli or Jew to ever set foot within their borders which would also include a complete denial of Jewish visitation to any of the dozens of holy sites such as the Western Wall, the Temple Mount, Kever Joseph, Kever Rachel, the Cave of the Patriarchs, Hevron, Shiloh and almost countless others returning to the dreadful days when these same places were so close yet denied to Jews when they were under Jordanian control. These positions are taken for two main reasons, first is that they are maximalist demands and second and probably the main reason is that they insult and demean the Jewish desire to be able to visit the places of historic importance to the Jewish people. But the intransigence and absolutist demands of the Palestinians are not news, so let’s discuss the rest of the leaked or stated plans.

 

Minister Avigdor Lieberman has put forth a plan where Israel would exchange with the Palestinians the predominantly Arab towns bordering the West Bank in exchange for the Settlement blocks of Israelis beyond the Green Line. This proposal has revealed some interesting responses from Israeli Arabs who normally are as anti-Semitic, anti-Israel and anti-Zionist who have decried the plan claiming that under no circumstance will they stand to be traded away and placed under the governance of the Palestinian Authority. I have suspicions that this plan was not made as an actual bonafide plan but more as an offer made in order to facilitate the responses from some select people who were forced to admit their preference for living under the Jewish governance of Israel than to be handed over to the governance of the Palestinians who they constantly claim to be in such deep agreement and unity. It also has the ability to put one more item on the table to allow Secretary Kerry and his entourage to reject and reveal why it would be such a horrible plan and reveal further their desire to pry a surrender from Israeli leadership while not pressing the Palestinians for any concessions in return.

 

That reminds me of another item which has surprisingly not been given ample coverage in the mainstream media in the United States or throughout Europe or even the Israeli liberal media. Every word, flinch or reaction of any sort emanating from Israeli leadership is top of the fold front page news to be dissected and analyzed ad-nauseum as was the recent comments made in a private conversation by Israeli Defense Minister Yaalon, but the riots and degrading and insulting remarks and actions from the leadership and the residents in the Palestinian areas which are autonomous and completely under Palestinian control while the IDF is only allowed to enter these areas under certain circumstances and often requiring Palestinian permission. There have been literally riots, shoe throwing contest at pictures of Secretary of State Kerry and United States President Obama and included an interesting chant that I suspect they missed the full meaning behind the words when they chanted a challenge to Secretary Kerry deriding that he has set up offices solely in Jerusalem and appears, along with his entire support forces, afraid to set up a similar command center in Ramallah claiming that is an example of Kerry’s timidity. These riots are ignored while the media deliberates endlessly over an Israeli Minister of Defense speaking the truth which has to be obvious to any thinking honest observer. The mainstream press has even run to interview anybody who they can rely upon to point out that President Obama has been the most favorable and best friend that Israel has ever had in the White House. Please don’t make me comment on how President Obama’s friendship is tantamount to an executioner promising to sharpen the axe before executing you and expecting you to thank him and give him a tip, ahead of time of course.

 

Meanwhile, Secretary Kerry has proposed that the Israelis will be able to monitor and counter potential terrorist activity and smuggling across the Jordan River into the Palestinian state with drones and satellites. He has claimed that this method is known to work extremely well as the United States uses this exact method to hermetically seal their southern border with Mexico from illegal immigrants entering the country for years now. There has been no discussion of whether the Palestinians will permit Israeli drones in their skies and even Israeli sensors along the Jordan River. And if Israel discovers terrorist activities and rocket launching emplacements being loaded in preparation to launch at Israel or Palestinian terrorists lying in wait with MANPADS anti-aircraft weapons on the hills overlooking Ben Gurion Airport, exactly what are the Israelis supposed to do? Will the world support the Israelis mounting an IDF incursion to prevent a disastrous catastrophe when a passenger plane is destroyed coming into land at Ben Gurion Airport? How long after the IDF sends aircraft to destroy rocket launching platforms will the Palestinians be before the United Nations General Assembly, Security Council, International Criminal Court, International Court of Justice and just about every single other international body demanding Israel be sanctioned and embargoed by the entire world. Will Secretary of State Kerry and President Obama side with Israel and lead a supportive response for allowing Israel to intercede militarily to prevent terrorist acts or will they support the rest of the world’s demanding that Israel do nothing until there has been an actual attack as no member state of the United Nations should ever take up arms against a fellow member state, they should instead petition the United Nations to intercede and protect them. And we all know how such a plea will be received but we do not know how Israel will survive such a plan once enacted. Of course why should Secretary Kerry worry about such insignificant items once he has been awarded a Nobel Peace Prize for his forming a peace between Israel and the Palestinians and succeeding in forming a Palestinian State. Secretary of State Kerry is peddling poison and knows it. He is the angel of death wearing a nice suit, a broad smile and a devious plan which will result in the death of Israel and a second Holocaust, but it is all in the name of peace. Such a peace I would prefer to avoid, so please my friends in the United States, keep Secretary of State Kerry at home and recall his minions who are tasked with bringing his evils to fruition. We will thank you and appreciate such friendship and find a way of repaying such kindness.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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