Beyond the Cusp

March 1, 2014

A Tale of Two Potential Conflicts

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Of all the potential flashpoints existing in the world, we would like to compare and contrast two separate potential conflicts; the possible intervention in the political unrest in the Ukraine by Russia and the possibility that Israel might intervene to attempt to address and mute the several threats across numerous fronts including Hezballah, Hamas and their sponsor Iran. Where any Israeli action against the growing threats made out of Iran would also require that Israel to take into consideration how they would address the additional arms that Iran has direct influence and could turn loose to attack Israel utilizing the tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of rockets and missiles ranging through the gamut from Katyusha and Grad rockets to Scud, Fajr and Zelzal-2s. The questions in each case run the full range from what would be the reactions of the United Nations to reactions from the major powers and other significant groups and entities.

 

Starting with the possibility of a Russian intervention in the Ukraine, what are the various scenarios and resultant ramifications. It is very possible that the Russians will be able to claim that their intervention is in response to requests from the people of the Ukraine who saw the overthrow of the government as a direct threat to their interests and safety. Such a request could easily be made by the majority Russian citizens living in the eastern and southern provinces of the Ukraine who have made clear their preference for the Ukraine to align with Russia over aligning with the European Union. There are reports that the Russians have placed a large force on their border with the Ukraine including fighter and other aircraft wings which would be necessary to assist with any military intervention. United States President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry and Secretary of Defense Hagel have all made statements warning the Russians that the United States Administration is opposed and demands that they not enter or otherwise interfere with the political process currently occurring in the Ukraine. The odds that Russian President Putin will heed such a warning and have it influence his decisions are basically nil. Much of this has to do with the complete lack of the United States to back earlier warnings given to Syria when American President Obama announced his red-line and serious consequences on Syrian President al-Assad against his deploying chemical weapons. The complete ineffectiveness of the American threat of serious consequences resulting in dithering and equivocation by President Obama leading to inaction and a stalemate which was almost painful to witness and was thankfully brought to a definitive end when President Putin intervened proposing the confiscation and destruction of al-Assad’s chemical weapons arsenal granting President Obama a way to climb down from the embarrassment of being caught on his own petard.

 

Should the Russians intervene in the Ukraine the world is most likely to sit on their hands and not offer even the mildest rebuke. The truth is that the Russians, especially under President Putin’s leadership, are sufficiently feared and retain sufficient threat to cause any sane and reasoned person or nation to carefully consider if the Ukraine is really worth their potentially confronting the Russians and challenging President Putin. Furthermore, as the Russians are one of the permanent nations on the Security Council and possess a full right of vetoing any actions or proposals presented for consideration by that body, there is absolutely no possibility to condemn any Russian actions in the Security Council. The possibility of Russia being rebuked by the General Assembly is one of the most laughable proposals anybody could ever make. The General Assembly often appears like it exists for denouncing the United States, Israel and even the European nations while forgiving any transgressions by the entirety of the non-free and third world nations. The end result of a Russian intervention in the Ukraine would likely be very similar to the results decades ago when the Soviet Union rolled tanks and troops into the rebellious republic of Czechoslovakia on August 21, 1968, bringing the reforms and attempt to move out from under the Soviet thumb by Czechoslovakia with nary a significantly effective complaint from the entire world. Putting it succinctly, Russia could walk into the Ukraine and annex the entire nation reestablishing Russian control of the entirety of the Ukraine and outside of any demonstrations by Ukrainians there would be little effective protest. The resistance by any Ukrainians would be short lived and ended with whatever brutality was deemed necessary as that is the Putin way.

 

In the other situation, the cacophony of denunciations and demands for the world to completely condemn Israel would be deafening and seemingly universal. There would be a race between the different nations to bring condemnations of Israel before the General Assembly and the Security Council would be in emergency session before the sun set and possibly before the jets returned from a strike on Iran. There would be claims upon claims quoting International Law as requiring the condemnation of Israel for their wanton assault on another United Nations member nation. The justification which Israel could offer would never be given the slightest consideration in the rush to condemnation. But is such condemnation appropriate or would Israel have a right and justifiable reasoning behind such an attack that would be backed by International Law? Surprisingly to most, the answer is a definitive yes. The Iranian leadership including Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini, numerous Imams, many of the Ministers from the Iranian Parliament and numerous other members of the leadership both political and religious have publically called repeatedly for the annihilation of Israel. There have been large assemblies of Iranians, often weekly on Friday after services where the Imam likely gave a sermon demonizing Israel and calling for Jihad to reclaim Islamic lands, who chanted in unison repeating the chant often spoken from the podium by a high government or religious official calling out, “Death to Israel” as well as religious chants proclaiming the supremacy of Allah and their dedication to serve Allah often by actions to destroy the Jewish State. Speeches given by leading government leaders at parades and other events which almost always include martial demonstrations such as parading missiles on launchers in parades these leaders claim that the military strength displayed will soon be loosed on Israel destroying the Zionist Entity. These provocations, if they can be believed as actual statements of intent and the probability of their being a true forecast of actions exists, then Israel would have sufficient cause to attack Iran to destroy the Iranian ability to make war upon Israel under International Law. That is the crux of the argument behind the threats to strike the Iranian nuclear sites and the same arguments would also hold for an Israeli strike on Iranian military targets.

 

Where Israel would face a series of severe threats would be from the terror forces which are available to carry out any Iranian calls for attacks on Israel. These include minimally Hezballah and Hamas and could also include terror forces in the areas under the control of the Palestinian Authority, Judea and Samaria, also called the West Bank. This very likely was one of the subjects which was discussed when Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas visited Tehran, Iran recently. Such would most definitely have come up if Chairman Abbas was requesting any funding or other assistance from the Iranians, something which is very likely as Abbas appears to be incapable of visiting anywhere and not begging for funding. Where Israel would be hard-pressed in making an argument for attacking the Palestinian Authority areas, they would easily be able to make a convincing argument concerning both Hezballah and Hamas as both have left no doubt that their intent is the destruction of Israel and the genocidal slaughter of every Jew, often referred to as Zionists, residing in Israel no matter their political persuasions. The reality of any Israeli attack is that you would be able to count the number of nations that would actively support the Israelis would likely be countable on your two hands. Bless United States, the Czech Republic, Panama, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau and especially Canada (with a salute to Prime Minister Harper). These were the only nations which found the nerve and good conscience to vote against recognition of the Palestinian Authority as a non-member state. Israel would face a boycott from the European Union and the Arab League would be red-faced in angry denouncements. Israel might not even be able to count on having the United States defend them with their veto in the Security Council. It might even be prudent for Israel to resign their membership in the United Nations which for the vast majority of its recent history has been the place Israel could go to be denigrated and denounced for her audacity to exist. The differences between a Russian military intervention in the Ukraine and Israel acting in her own self-interest and defense would be diametrically opposite in act and reasoning. Some things are only remarkable in their obvious predictability as in their lack of moral conscience and convictions.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 2, 2013

Palestinians Executing Planned Hijacking of Peace Process

Just as many expected, including us, the Palestinian Authority leadership had a plan all along which did not include negotiating in good faith. At the very beginning of negotiations Mahmoud Abbas and the rest of the leadership of the Palestinian Authority made a choice to demand terrorist prisoner releases over demanding yet another building freeze. When Israeli Prime Minister acquiesced and folded under pressures applied by United States Secretary of State John Kerry and President Barack Obama and agreed to release over one-hundred terrorist prisoners, even to include terrorists with the blood of innocent men, women and children on their hands, he informed the Palestinian Authority that there would be new construction beyond the Green Line largely in the areas, but not totally limited to, which both sides had previously agreed that Israel would retain through land swaps. Of course from the outset of negotiations the Palestinian negotiators and other leaders from the Palestinian Authority have pushed for a building freeze to also be imposed upon Israel. Surprisingly, United States Secretary of State John Kerry denounced this duplicity and deceitful tactic being employed by the Palestinian Authority and insisted they cease while telling the media that the Palestinians had been informed of the Israeli building plans and their indignation and protestations were simply an act.

 

With the newest revelation it will be interesting to see what the reaction from Secretary Kerry and President Obama to the Palestinian’s deceitful negotiating and the resignation of the negotiators complaining that Israel has not negotiated in good faith as they have refused to accept the demands of the Palestinians and have the audacity to make demands of their own. Soon after the resignation of the Palestinian negotiators Mahmoud Abbas announced the intention of the Palestinians to take their demands before the International Courts and other bodies in order to get as many world bodies, boards, assemblies, governments, NGOs and courts demanding that Israel meet every single Palestinian demand while nothing will be expected, let alone demanded, of the Palestinians. This was their plan from the start and they have simply been waiting for an appropriate Israeli action to pull the rug from under the negotiations and set out on their world tour demanding that the world force Israel’s surrender. They claimed the recent announcement to build additional housing largely within Jerusalem to help mitigate the pain the prisoner release was generating was the Israeli transgression which forced the Palestinians to find the negotiations to be useless and a complete sham. Now the Palestinians will seek friendlier channels to attain validation of their demands and have an ultimatum placed on Israel to surrender on every single front instead of seeking a resolution through negotiations with Israel as laid out in United Nations Security Council Resolution 242 and numerous other resolutions and petitions.

 

The Israeli announcement of intent to build was not the actual reason behind the Palestinian actions as they had been previously informed of the plans to continue building and had chosen terrorist releases in lieu of a building freeze. The Palestinians would have used any Israeli action which they could put forth an injured face which had suffered a grievous insult. They could use the fact that Jews have been permitted onto the Temple Mount even in the limited numbers and under strict supervision by the Islamic Waqf simply by claiming that the Jews had attempted to enter the al-Aqsa Mosque causing a horrid blaspheme against the Palestinian people and the whole of Islam just as they had used the visitation to the Temple Mount by Ariel Sharon in order to validate the Second Intifada which resulted in the murder of over a thousand Israelis. The Palestinians have been proven to fabricate out of thin air a grievance to validate their actions which would otherwise be found unacceptable. Somehow whatever the Palestinians claim as the validating sin committed by the Israelis to permit their violence, rioting, or hijacking the peace process to take it to international bodies, often the United Nations General Assembly where they know they have a guaranteed amen chorus that will grant them anything they request, is automatically considered to be the unchallengeable truth by a sizeable majority of nations who would never find any need to challenge or ask for corroborative evidence. The Palestinians could just as easily used the destruction of the weapons in Latakia, Syria preventing them from being transferred to Hezballah in Lebanon by Israel recently.

 

The only thing that remains to be seen is whether the United States will back their planned nine months of negotiating in good faith and demand the Palestinian return to the negotiations or simply allow the Palestinians to take their grievances on a world tour seeking validation and allies to apply pressures upon the Israelis. The world’s reactions are predictable as can be, especially since we have historical evidence from previous such fiascos committed in the name of Palestinian statehood. There is always a possibility that President Obama might take the Palestinian’s side and decide that the time has come to allow a Chapter Seven backed Security Council Resolution being implemented to force a solution on Israel. If this avenue is chosen we can expect that the decision will be to use the Green Line as the border for the Palestinian State. The unknown is whether there will also be a measure demanding that Israel repatriate the so-called Palestinian refugees erasing the Jewish majority in Israel. A Chapter Seven Resolution can be enforced by military force of arms which would make any Israeli refusal to surrender before such a decree have extremely serious consequences. The one looming and very ominous shadow darkening the whole Israel-Arab, this is the real conflict and not Palestinians, conflict over recognition of Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish State and not be under Islamic control and rule is the fact that time is running out on President Obama’s second term and he has a deadly determination that he will solve the Middle East’s presumed biggest problem even if he has to completely destroy Israel in the process, or maybe in order to destroy Israel with the process. The reasoning that President Obama would resort to brute force that would compromise Israel probably out of existence as a home for the Jews comes directly from his actions early on in his first term. Let’s review some of the highlights of President Obama’s jewels that he launched that damaged Israel to an extent that has yet to be determined. First was the idea of a building freeze followed soon thereafter by statements which declared that the United States position was that the borders for the Palestinian state should be the Green Line including the division of Jerusalem which was only subsequently backed off to allow for small mutually agreed land swaps which still allowed for the Palestinians to merely refuse to make any swaps to gain the entirety of their territorial demands. Then there is the litany of insults and offenses heaped upon Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu by President Obama personally. The President insisted that Prime Minister Netanyahu enter and depart the White House for their first meeting by a side entrance and not the main front entrance and also refusing to stand before the press after their meeting. The second meeting had similar insult including no press conference. On another occasion President Obama left Prime Minister Netanyahu and his party telling them he needed to go and have dinner with his family and that the Prime Minister and his aides should use the time to review the areas where the two disagreed and demanded that when Netanyahu came around he should tell one of the President’s aides who would then inform Obama that he could return and collect the surrender of principles by the Israeli leader. President Obama during the ceremonies for the opening session of the United Nation General Assembly during President Obama’s first term where the President claimed to be unable to find time in order to meet Prime Minister Netanyahu but then appeared for around a half an hour on the television show “The View” which was being broadcast from a studio in New York City. And the final example, though not the last if this was to be a complete list, was President Obama insisting, could even say forcing, Prime Minister Netanyahu to call and apologize to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan over the incident concerning the Israeli legal, even according to the United Nations, interception of the ship the Mavi Marmara which was being used by terrorists in an attempt to either break the embargo on Hams in Gaza or have a violent confrontation with Israeli forces hoping to kidnap or kill as many Israeli soldiers as possible. Even before the violent confrontation it has been revealed that the terrorists had made plans on the best possible way to carry out the ambush and had prayed and chanted slogans calling for victory over the infidel or martyrdom in the cause of Islam and in the service of Allah. President Obama very likely knew that his self-proclaimed best friend in the world, Recep Erdogan, would not accept the apology and would simply use it in future propaganda statements and speeches and otherwise turn his shoe soles towards Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and all of Israel. How any friend of Israel could support President Obama is overwhelmingly absurd.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

October 12, 2013

Abbas Desires Meet with Netanyahu

Abbas has told the Americans that he would be willing to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Abbas claims that he would not place any preconditions on such a meeting but he would still expect that the Israelis make some actions on the ground in order to prepare for such a meeting. This is nothing more than Abbas out on a fishing expedition attempting to pick up some concessions which he will expect the Americans to pressure Netanyahu to make. This is the same game being played once again and until the Israelis refuse to play into Abbas’s hand every time he pretends to want to make an effort showing good intentions when all Abbas really wants is to gain some more land or other promises Abbas will continue with his false promises and lies. Netanyahu should return the favor and agree to meet Abbas once he has made some moves to show that he honestly is seeking reconciliation and not just more of his same old game. This tired old game of Abbas making sweeping statements to the press promising the sun and the moon only to turn around and demand to know what Netanyahu and the Israelis are willing to grant him in return has got to end. Then once the Americans have pressured Israel into making some concessions to the Palestinians, Abbas usually calls the meeting off at the last moment and claims to be willing to meet at a later date; in the process Abbas’s promises fall through the cracks and Israel has once again been pressured to grant Abbas concessions in return for the pleasure of meeting with Abbas for a brief meet and greet.

 

The one blessing is that the meeting with the snake, Mahmoud Abbas, is short and fortunately infrequent. Israel does not need to be seen to be waiting for Abbas to offer crumbs and that they are always at the ready to drop everything just to accommodate his royal decrees. This time Prime Minister Netanyahu needs to simply refuse to meet with Abbas unless Abbas makes some gesture beforehand to prove that he intends for the meeting to be serious and not just another ploy to get him before the cameras where he will point fingers at Netanyahu and make grand claims that Israel is the sole reason there is no peace, when Abbas is as aware as anybody who has watched and honestly evaluates the situation knows that Abbas is the principle reason there has not been and never will be an agreement. The truth is that Abbas is only willing to accept a peace in which there is no Jewish state even if it means allowing Israel to remain in name but having it absorb five million Arab refugees who would vote the Jews out of their own state in the next election. Abbas has made his position eminently clear when speaking in Arabic to the Palestinian people or to Muslim audiences when he has claimed that Jaffa, Netanya, Acco, Tel Aviv, Beersheba, Haifa and Ashod are all parts of Palestine and the resistance will not end until all of Palestine has been liberated. This is the reason Abbas will never recognize Israel as the Jewish state because to do so would be to lose claim to that which he believes is Muslim lands that must never be permitted to fall from Muslim control, and even more so if they are to lose these lands to Jews.

 

So, why should Netanyahu even wish to meet with Abbas other than possibly to please the Americans? Even more to the point, why would Netanyahu even meet with Abbas to please the Americans who have already placed Israel in the most untenable position she has ever faced and have proven not to be a true friend. That is not to say the American people are not friendly to Israel as they have made their friendship clear and it is appreciated. But President Obama and his merry band have proven beyond any doubt that they would be willing to push Israel under the bus if they thought it would result in gaining them some advantage. President Obama has gone to great lengths to expose Israeli missions which were launches to prevent the passage of highly dangerous, game changing weapons from Syria into the hands of Hezballah. President Obama has made it evidently clear that he would do anything in his power to include shooting Israeli planes out of the sky if Israel were to have the audacity to attack Iran without first receiving the approval of President Obama. Of course President Obama is most likely never going to allow an Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear sites and would be more likely to call the Iranians and warn them than he would be to assist Israel. Israel should finish the current talks which will end with Abbas declaring that Israel simply is refusing to make peace and cut her throat and then he will trot back to the United Nations. I fully expect this time that Abbas will be given the green light to go to the Security Council where President Obama will allow full recognition granting Abbas the 1967 Lines as his new borders. What follows after that vote is anybody’s guess; but I doubt it will end peaceably.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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