Where in the World is Everything Going?

Talk with ten different supposed authorities or futurists about where the world is headed and you will get at a minimum thirty or more scenarios. One of the reasons behind this odd little phenomenon is that many of them will answer claiming the world will be either ‘A’ or possibly ‘B’ while others will simply claim it will be ‘A’ unless such and such otherwise it will be ‘not A’ just to assure that their answers are complete and guaranteed to be more accurate. Unfortunately we will likely not be much different because there are a small number of factors which will decide both the eventual near future and the pace at which an inevitable future will arrive. First off let us discuss the eventual path mankind will take with the sole proviso being that man does not self-destruct in the mean time. One of the principle observations which stand as a driving force behind the predictions from numerous futurists is Moore’s Law which noted that the number of transistors on a chip doubles every two years. There is an obvious limiting factor which will eventually cause reality to conflict with this postulate, namely that molecules and atoms of silicon and germanium, the two elements currently utilized to manufacture the wafers for ICs, have a set size and nothing will ever be made smaller than this size. Thus we know that there eventually will be an end point beyond which progress will depend on some new dimension. This point is still well into the future, so we will continue to have the capability to produce more complex, faster, more energy efficient integrated circuits which will further expand the scope and capabilities of the hardware engineers and programmers will have at their disposal and also the price and size of memory modules and devices will also continue to shrink in size while increasing in capabilities. This allows the limit of the capabilities of our systems, be they robotic, calculative, measuring, artificial intelligence or any other performance oriented components or units to similarly increase in capability limited solely by the development of software to drive them. When one also includes the possible advances in Physics, Chemistry, and to an extent also discoveries in biology, especially bioengineering, then there may even be other hard to imagine, let alone measurable, advances made. One such example would be the introduction of a truly functioning and easily programmable quantum computer. All of this simply provides a backdrop with which to measure the full extent to which progress can expand and develop in order for there to be related advances in our societies and affect our way of life.

 

One way of measuring the advancement of mankind over the ages is to formulate a chart which maps the speed it would take for somebody to go from New York to Paris and then on to Rome. In 1700 one would be talking about close to a whole year to make such a voyage. In 1800 the same voyage would take a matter of many months. By 1900 we would shorten that voyage to around six to ten weeks depending on variables. Go to 1950 and the same trip, trip now and not voyage as even the terminology would have changed, would take merely days and not even a whole week. It would be possible with some planning to complete this trip in less than two full days. Now go on this trip in 2000 and the whole thing would take a matter of hours. And today that trip is not that much quicker than it was twelve years ago but the jet aircraft we would be taking carry more people further and slightly faster on less fuel and the number of choices one has to choose from would make covering this exact trip something that could be done in hours even if one had not made plans and found such a trip required on no notice. And if we were actually measuring the fastest possible available way of covering this trip, if all one must do is cover these distances then the astronauts in the ISS (International Space Station) have been making this trip in a very short, likely under an hour, multiple times every single day for the last few years. The real point of this demonstration is that the same or a similar equation also represents the number of people who can be fed per acre of farmland. Without the advances in crops and animal raising for food such as bioengineered crops and cattle and modern fertilizers, irrigation, and just managing all the individual needs of the farm tailoring everything on an as needed basis as revealed via scans made by UAVs (Unmanned Arial Vehicles) with cameras and other high-tech sensors has increased yields even further as well as allowed herd management and tracking and finding any stray cattle which also helps to minimize losses. Without many of these advances we would have actually had much of the world starving exactly as was predicted to occur in the early seventies where it was supposed to strike us by the late seventies. Obviously, if you have been to a modern supermarket, we have sufficient food to feed the world with the only real problem being distribution and poverty. Hopefully these are problems which will soon be unpleasant memories and not problems still faced anywhere in our future world.

 

The future becoming a place of abundance and free from want is an eventuality which will come to be. Those who are pushing for it to come immediately may have their hearts in the right place, but the immediate problem is more due to politics, people, hatreds, fears, and other items from mankind’s darker side. These are the types of hurdles which will most affect whether or not our societies develop into something more altruistic and benevolent or whether malevolence, hatred and violence will continue to plague much of mankind. One of my barometers as to how the world is coping and advancing beyond its darker and more limiting inclinations is to look to Europe and gauge the level of trust, interdependency, mutual reliance, interscene violence, and general moods. Before World War I the levels of cooperation, unity, interdependence, and peace were virtually nonexistent. The common state was one of aggression, violence, distrust, and lacking in most areas of cooperation. After World War I Europe entered a brief period of relative calm with one troublesome situation which was of their own designs. The imposition of overly harsh punishments placed on Germany was the eventual cause of the nationalistic militarism which came with the rise of Hitler and the Nazis. This led directly to World War II and all the great conflagrations from Europe all the way to the Pacific Ocean. Granted, all of the violence did not directly result from Germany and a large portion was caused by Japan, but the Eurocentric violence was caused fairly directly by Germany. Since World War II and especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union and their satellite governments, Europe has attempted and succeeded until recently in generating large amounts of cooperation between most of the European nations. Due to some nations’ internal political structures and cultures having a more expansive societal security net which allowed for what was a heavily dependent citizenry by comparison with the countries with a stronger work ethic and laws with less generous benefits offered governmental economic stabilities radically differed under pressure. This has led to recent problems as these differences were magnified by the recent worldwide economic problems. This now stands ready to tear at most of the cooperative financial agreements which are the skeletal structure that supports the body of the European Union. If the world economy does not pick up steam and become more vigorous, then it is more likely that these problems between the separate nations of the European Union will only grow worse and eventually destroy the EU. Once that eventuality takes place we can expect Europe to return to the natural tendencies which have plagued Europe for centuries. The then almost unavoidable and inevitable conflagration will begin with strong nationalist themes forming amongst the unemployed and least wealthy who will be unable to afford a decent standard of living and likely find their families hungry and under threats caused by fiscal problems resulting from high inflation making the currencies worthless. This will be the result of these countries being expelled from the EU and no longer allowed to use the Euro as their currency and their former currency will lose value against the Euro until it reaches a stable level of worth. This will isolate each of these countries as their currency will be so devalued against the Euro that they will be unable to afford anything imported and will be completely reliant on domestic goods. The other side of the problem is the domestic goods will garner a higher price if exported rather than sold domestically and the outside world will be able to buy virtually anything and everything produced within the newly EU outcast nations. Eventually such trade will bring these countries’ economies back to health provided that none of them decide that war would be a faster route to recover their lost economic stability. European history has shown that during economic upheavals the populations tend to turn xenophobic and nationalistic while also favoring militarism. This had kept Europe in a near constant state of wars for centuries and the world may see this return. If that occurs, then who knows what will result.

 

The other threat to a promising future of technical genius and great developments will be the less developed nations who are now at the cusp of nuclear abilities.  Almost any nation which wishes to invest in the development of nuclear weaponry will have the technical ability to do so and would only be limited by lack of natural resources. Obviously, lack of natural resources is simply a matter of purchasing power and the wherewithal to open clandestine trading to acquire the uranium or other fissile materials. If North Korea can find the available resources necessary to manufacture a nuclear weapon under the sanctions and embargoes placed on them, then any nation has the capability of gathering the tools, expertise, and other materials to do the same. The development of a sufficient ability in rocket development to design a relatively efficient and able rocket delivery system would also not pose an insurmountable problem. Such a spread of nuclear weapons giving a number of countries possession of deliverable nuclear weapons stores and their not having the relative inhibitions, which almost if not all the current nuclear powers possess against using such weapons, then without such cautions they might be tempted more easily into their use. Such a situation could very easily escalate and eventually cause widespread devastation on a scale never before witnessed. This is another scenario which would at best delay a technical age of plenty and permanent lack of want which could lead to an end of mankind’s violence against his fellow men. That is the race we face, which comes first, all of mankind attaining a level of technical advances and improvements which remove any areas of serious want and mankind entering a new era or mankind falling prey to our evil and darker side and causing an end to any society, not just our advanced society. This race is one where the first nations who cross the line which divides human society from their warlike past into a pacifistic future cannot simply continue on as if everything is just fine waiting for the rest of the world to reach a similar point of development. Upon attaining such advancement they would be best served to do whatever was necessary in order to speed the rest of mankind enabling them to also reach such a point. Unfortunately, changing their societal norms will take far more than simple technological advancement, it will take sociological advancement, something almost as intangible as a wisp of smoke and just as easily brushed aside by the slightest waves of violence. So, which will win? Sorry, you are going to have to tell me as I have my fears and hopes but no knowledge which will triumph in the end.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Right and Left in Israel, Elections, and What They Believe

The political right and left in Israel are weeks away from the next election and have made their lists for the Knesset seats they may win in the coming elections. What is interesting is both sides actually agree on a number of subjects but still stand at odds on these very same issues. The biggest point of agreement is that they believe that the people of Israel by a large majority want peace and an end to terrorism, conflicts and any need for military interventions. The difference is those on the Left believe that this can and should be pursued through compromise and negotiations with Mahmoud Abbas and cooperation with world bodies such as the United Nations and European Union. They see United States President Obama as an ally with whose assistance the peace process can be resumed and with small sacrifices from Israel and the removal of those “settlers” from the Palestinian lands that peace will logically ensue. They believe that much of the accusations of Prime Minister Netanyahu by many European leaders and liberal progressives in the United States are completely valid and that Prime Minister Netanyahu is at the root of what is wrong with Israel. They also see Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman as an uncontrollable person who is bordering on madness and is untrustworthy and his abrasive personality and blunt manner cause additional problems for Israel’s world image. If only sane and worthy people can be returned to the offices of Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, then Israel will be accepted by the rest of the world and there would soon be peace with the Palestinians and lead to stability between Israel and the Arab world, especially Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon.

The right which is made up largely by the combined Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu Party and the Religious Zionist Parties and Shas also realized that the Israeli people are tired of the endless violence and terrorism but they also realize that much of the population are also realistic enough to realize that the only way to end these threats is through strength and presenting a strong and united front demanding that which will allow Israel to face all threats from a position of strength and from within defensible borders. The majority of the Israeli public has come to the realization that there is no partner for peace from within the current Palestinian leadership, especially Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. They are aware that the recent Operation Pillar of Defense that was waged to cripple the ability of the Gaza terrorists to continue to fire rockets into southern Israel was ended prematurely. There were some who voiced disgust with the government for not removing Hamas and retaking the Gaza Strip. Others realize that there are likely considerations, concerns and possibly threats which forced the decision to end Operation Pillar of Defense earlier than possibly even the government or the IDF would have desired. Israelis are getting used to but not necessarily accepting without protest the world’s regular interference with any defensive actions taken by Israel against either the terrorists perched on her borders or the Arab nations should they pose an immediate threat seemingly to deny Israel the overwhelming victory over her enemies which might actually force an end to their attempts to destroy and erase their existence. Still, the majority of Israelis, as the coming election is likely to prove, realize that if they are ever going to live in peace and put an end to the terror attacks that they will require a strong government that is perceived as unafraid to use whatever force is required to prevent the realization of the threats from the terrorists and other threats such as Iran and Turkey. The one position taken by some factions on the right which finds the Israeli more evenly divided concerns the “settler” movement and the communities in Judea and Samaria, deceptively called the West Bank by the Palestinian and Arab entities. There are those who favor a complete retreat to the Green Line, the 1949 Armistice Lines, and cede the rest to the Palestinian authority for their state. Others believe that Israel needs to simply absorb all of Judea and Samaria, world opinion be damned. It is likely the largest groups fall between these two extremes. Many desire retaining the major communities and surrendering the minor “settlements” which are of smaller size than places such as Ariel, Betar Illit, Ma’ale Adumim, and Modi’in Illit. Some that have divided support include Beit El, Efrat, Elkana, Karnei Shomron, Kedumim, Kiryat Arba, Ma’ale Efraim, Itamar, among others. There is also a great amount of support by the IDF, those whose concerns parallel military strategies, and many Zionists who also insist that Israel retain at a minimum a military presence throughout the Jordan River Valley and Jordan Valley Ridge as early warning, radar, and other defensive posts and sensor stations. Despite their differences, most of these groups will vote for the right wing, religious, and Zionist parties while holding to hopes that any coalition made will not require severe compromises made on their conservative values and desires for a strong Israel presence in the world.

The major differences where there is little agreement come into play when we look at social services and the economy. The left support an extensive, all encompassing, massive state safety net which is able to redistribute wealth making for a guaranteed level of comfort for all Israelis even if such requires greater levels of taxation. This was the presiding position for the first decades of Israeli existence as the Labor Party held unchallenged power and had set up a central, state run economy with the expectant socialist monetary policies. This influence was changed significantly by Benyamin Netanyahu when he served as Finance Minister under Prime Minister Sharon. During his term in this position he privatized many of the previously government run industries, companies and service industries. This along with business friendly programs Netanyahu gained recognition for an economic revitalization of the Israeli economy which has never really looked back. These policies were in part responsible for the Israeli economy’s continued solid performance when the economies of Europe, the United States and the rest of the industrialized world were in recession as their economic health faced a financial collapse of a variety of markets simultaneously. Many of the youth, as was evident in the social protests two summers ago, desire to return to the socialist wonder-world which many have been taught by their professors is the panacea to all the ills caused by capitalism. The question is how much economic issues will have on the coming election.

This election, if I have it right, is going to be more about security and who will best protect Israel from an apparently hostile world, which was made hugely evident by the recent vote in the United Nations General Assembly where the Palestinian Authority was granted recognition of statehood. Some political pundits have claimed that the United Nations vote gave the Palestinian Authority the right and permission to set the new state’s boundaries. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Lieberman both present the point that the United Nations vote actually was nothing more than a suggestion and granted the Palestinian Authority nothing that they are unable to enforce militarily. Where I would not wish to even attempt to guess how many Knesset seats will go to each of the various parties but will predict that should the parties on the right wish, they will very likely be able to make a conservative coalition. The coalition would likely consist of the merged Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu Parties, the merged Tekuma National Union and Habayit Hayehudi Jewish Home Parties, and likely Shas which might produce a coalition with sixty-three to sixty-five seats in the Knesset. Once more I find myself ending an article with time will tell.

Beyond the Cusp

Ancient Israel Time is Finally Coming Due

From the time of Abraham, followed by the miracle of the Exodus and Israel’s leader, the Lawgiver Moses, leading to the beginning of the taking of the Promised Land under Joshua, on to the building of a true nation by King David which led immediately to the building of the Temple by King Solomon, even through the hardships of the Babylon Exile and the near countless conquests by empire after empire from Persia through the Greeks and finally ending less than merciful Roman conquest that lead to the near two thousand years in the wilderness of the Diaspora, a people have been forged who have finally returned to their national home with a unique history intertwined with the experiences from every corner of the world and are finally on the cusp of realizing their true destiny. Now the Children of Israel face likely their most insidious of challenges, economic success with a pampered class of the permanently disgruntled. These children of discontent were on full display with their temper tantrum and extremist displays when the authorities actually refused to allow them the same license to disrupt life in the center of Israel’s cities with a replay of last summer’s tent protests. Their aim is to again protest the unfairness of the society which will not allow them to begin life at the top of the heap replete with all the comforts of their adolescence generously provided by their parents who had reached the pinnacle of long years of diligently toiling at their professions.

This denial of the indignant class to once again set up their disruptive tent cities in the heart of the Israeli hubs of commerce and business marks the beginning of the end of this hijacking of the Jewish faith by the liberal elites of Western civilization. As Jews, we have seen this play out numerous times over our history with likely the most memorable being the Bar Kochba revolt against the Greek Seleucid Empire of Syria in 165 BCE which is celebrated during Chanukah. This revolt was, in reality, more than a simple revolt against the Seleucid Greeks, it also was a battle against those Jews who had adopted a corrupted version of Judaism that knitted Greek culture into its practices and had adopted many of the Greek philosophies and practices. They were referred to as Hellenized Jews and were rejected by their brethren who saw their corruption of Torah and their incorporation of Greek practice into their Judaism as a form of idolatry making their Jewish practices compromised and impure. One of the initial killed was one such Jew when a Jewish priest from Modiin, Mattathias the Hasmonean, started the revolt by thrusting a spear through the Hellenistic Jew who had been willing to bow to idols and then the commander of the Greek soldiers which spurred his five sons and those who answered his call, “Those who are for G0d, follow me!” set upon and killed the squad of soldiers. Hopefully this rejection of the modern Hellenized Jews will not require such violence but will end simply due to a resurgence of traditional Judaism. What makes this even more hopeful is that we are witnessing two completely separate and different series of events within modern Judaism. A recent <a href= target=blank> article reports,</a> “New York’s Jewish population is on the rise after decades of decline. Researchers credit orthodox birthrates. The change was attributed to birthrates in the orthodox Jewish community, particularly in Chassidic circles. Forty percent of New York City Jews now identify as orthodox, up from Thirty-three percent a decade ago. Nearly three out of every four Jewish children in the city are growing up in orthodox families.” Similar results have been evident throughout most Jewish populations, especially within Israel.

This return to traditional Judaism and the sanctification of a people is a necessary prelude to the building of the Holy Temple and a complete return to fulfillment of all of the six-hundred-thirteen Commandments as spelled out in Torah. It is then possible for a new age of humankind to rise up and bless the Earth with peace, understanding, kindness and a mutual respect among the peoples that is written of in most prophetic works. As far as what other occurrences and events will befall humankind and whether these will be pleasant or turmoil depends on the course taken by the nations and the peoples. Looking over human history one would not be condemned for believing that before we attain a Divinely inspired world we will first face some horrific events and calamities. I have always held out hope that humankind will come to realize that more can be accomplished by assisting one another than is accomplished through conflict or chaos. Unfortunately, that Pollyannish worldview is often smashed to pieces simply by reading the daily news stories, but one can always hold out hope. But first it is necessary to work towards satisfying those necessary initial steps before we are able to even begin to work towards building that perfect society which most everyone at least secretly hopes is somewhere in our future. Even if it is beyond our days, we can only pray our children will witness such developments. After all, it is our hope of a better future which is part of why we bother to raise our children giving them our hopes and dreams to pass on until they become reality.

Beyond the Cusp