Why There Cannot be a Two State Solution

Israel has once again been forced by a massive surge in rocket bombardment of Israeli citizens living in the south to attack Hamas and related terror groups in Gaza, a Gaza which Israel made a complete and total disengagement from in the summer of 2005, every man, woman, child and IDF soldier. Over the years since Israel turned all of Gaza over to self-rule by the Palestinians there has been a steady increase in the range and destructive capabilities of the rockets fired out of Gaza. The latest to be introduced are supplied by Iran and consist of the Fadjr MLRS (multiple launch rocket system) which has a range to reach southern Tel Aviv but is inaccurate as it has no guidance system, yet; and the Kornet anti-tank guided missile which is the Iranian made copy of the Russian weapon system. The Fadjr has a range of 75 km with a 95 kg warhead, a sizeable increase over the Grad and Katyusha rockets which have made up the majority of salvos fired into Israel. When Israel left Gaza they turned the area over to the Palestinian authority who held it until a year later when Hamas revolted and threw the Palestinian authority out in a coup. It was after the Hamas takeover that the rocket barrages began and within a few months the Israelis found it necessary to impose an embargo on the Gaza Strip in order to prevent a massive influx of weaponry from Iran and other suppliers who supported Hamas. One must also remember that Hamas got their start as a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, the same Muslim Brotherhood which currently rules in Egypt. Hamas has also become one of the terror outfits that is supplied by Iran in order to use them against Israel should Israel ever attack the Iranian nuclear sites, Hamas along with Syria (not at the moment as Syria has enough problems of their own) and Hezballah in Lebanon.

Knowing the history and record of how the world got to this point with Gaza and Israel is important as the probability of exactly the same turn of events occurring in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) should they be delivered into the hands of the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli civilians and IDF and police forces removed in a unilateral disengagement. It is a well-known fact among those who have studied the area and particularly the Palestinians and the Palestinian Authority that without the presence of the IDF and Israeli security and border police throughout most of Judea and Samaria that Hamas would remove the Palestinian Authority and replace them with a Hamas controlled government. Allowing a two state solution would simply be allowing Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the other various terror entities which now attack out of Gaza to also have free run to strike at Israel from the Judean Hills which overlook the most densely populated areas of Israel and which hold the vast majority of Israeli industry, power stations, petroleum storage and vital infrastructure. Another very possible result of allowing a two state solution to be imposed would be the fall of Jordan to any of three different threats, either the Muslim Brotherhood, the Salafists, or the IRGC backed Shiites. Which one would make little difference as any of the three would allow free passage of any and all weapons and personnel across the Jordan River into Hamas ruled West Bank. It would very likely make the Allenby Bridge into a military pipeline flowing in one direction, west. Allowing a Hamas State to form on the Eastern borders of Israel would spell the end of any possibility for any Israelis to live a normal life without the constant fear of rockets pouring down out of the sky any time of the day or night. It is also a given that the Palestinian Authority could not hold on to power in the West Bank any better than they had in Gaza. If an election were held, then Hamas would win, if not somebody even worse, just as they did when United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice insisted that Hamas be allowed to run in the last Palestinian authority elections held in 2005.

Israeli security and existence as a livable place would be in jeopardy should the Palestinians be allowed a state in Judea and Samaria, especially if such an entity were allowed any form of military. Where coexistence might be possible with the Palestinian Authority in control, though even this is highly unlikely, they would not remain in control past the first election. The chance of Hamas or similar terror entity taking control of the entire Palestinian state is likely to occur even before they have a chance to hold elections, very similar as what occurred in Gaza. The geography and the fact that Judea and Samaria control the heights that overlook the central plains of Israel make allowing the Judean Hills to be used as launching pads is national suicide for Israel. When one takes history into account and views the rearming of Hezballah in Lebanon while the United Nation have peace keepers in place presumably to prevent just such an occurrence, one immediately realized the futility of even suggesting such a solution. The Six Day War in 1967 took place despite United Nations observers in the Sinai Peninsula. When President Nasser of Egypt demanded their removal, they packed their duffle-bags and went home. There was even a short cease-fire called during the fighting in Gaza to allow the safe passage of a train containing Indian peacekeeping troops who were leaving the Sinai. Giving the Palestinian another state, Jordan was originally established to be a state for the Arab Palestinians by the British in 1922, is completely unworkable unless the desire and reason is to dissolve Israel under a constant barrage of rockets from one end of the country to the other without leaving one square inch as a safe refuge. But that may be the intent of all those who keep claiming that it is the path to peace. We all honestly know what kind of peace such would purchase.

Beyond the Cusp

Benghazi and Gaza Reveal Government Spin Over Action

In the United States the public is being slowly traumatized by the horrors slowly coming to light as the putrefied onion that is Benghazi, Libya is slowly peeled one rotting later after another while in Israel there is the escalation by the terror governance in Gaza of rockets being hurled across the border at civilians and often timed to strike while children are transiting to or from school thus traumatizing the millions within the ever increasing range of these explosive projectiles. In both countries the government in general and the leadership in particular; President Obama, Secretary of State Clinton, United Nations Ambassador Rice and others in the Administration in America and Prime Minister Netanyahu and the military and coalition leadership in Israel; are dodging responsibility and avoiding directly addressing the truth in a futile hope that neither problem will have any defining affect upon the upcoming elections. The similarities in both of these horrid and tragic instances go further than simply the attempt to wish them away by each nation’s leaders, they also have similar solutions which are based on honestly admitting some painful truths, taking responsibility for protecting the people and interests of the nation, giving an honest and complete assessment of the realities each nation faces, admission of mistakes and shortcomings committed by those in the positions of leadership and decision making, and finally refusal to take bold steps that would protect those in harm’s way and use necessary military steps that would prevent any further damages and show an understanding and consideration for protecting those who stand vulnerable from these threats.

The United States leadership needs to admit that it is very possible and even likely that the changes brought on by the so-called Arab Spring are more likely to result in situations less favorable to the West, freedom, liberties and even the economies of the nations where the Muslim Brotherhood or other Islamist entities have taken over the governance and are going to resemble an Arab Winter and relations are going to turn colder, not warmer. This places our personnel in the embassies, consulates, and other assets in greater threats of danger either directly from the new governance or from other terror-like threats acting with the permission of the governments if not directly being organized by these governments. It will not only be unwise to allow for security to be provided by the governments of the countries in which there are personnel and must insist on having United States Marines on duty guarding these people or should let it be known that American personnel will be pulled if forced to do so as well as financial and other consequences. Niceties cannot be extended if they will result in the death or threats of violence to American personnel. There are times when niceties must be put aside and putting forth a steel gloved hand becomes necessary instead of a white silk glove that President Obama appears to believe will solve everything. Reality is often not as pretty and in this case is extremely unseemly and ugly, but the truth is the truth.

Meanwhile, in southern Israel there have been close to one hundred rockets, mortars, bombs and other attacks originating from the Gaza Strip in less than one week. While the Iron Dome system protecting the city of Ashkelon has been of adequate success by intercepting at least eight rockets fired in its theater, there are simply not sufficient Iron Dome systems to protect all of the communities. There have been mounting casualties and an even larger number of people suffering stress and other nervous attacks and disorders as a result of this seeming declaration of war. If this many explosive rockets and mortars had been fired across a border into any country in the world other than Israel, the United Nations would be holding emergency sessions and there would be world-wide concern and denunciations against the senseless violence and provocations. Of course, since these attacks are against Israel there will be no fury of concern, hand-wringing and denouncements unless and until Israel should retaliate with any appropriate force which will be labeled as disproportionate as is the custom of the world in its current state of affairs. But just because the rest of the world will likely get their panties in a wad should Israel launch a ground attack that is carefully planned and executed sweeping through the entire length and breadth of the Gaza Strip searching every single building, shed, hospital, and mosque for rockets, mortars, rocket launchers, mortar launch tubes and any other such equipment of war and confiscate and destroy every single piece found does not preclude the possible necessity for just such an action. There should also be arrests of every leading terrorist and the rocket, mortar, bomb and explosive expert should be arrested or taken as prisoners of war to be released once all violence originating from the Gaza Strip has ceased for twelve straight months and a treaty negotiated. It may even have reached the point in time where returning IDF forces into the Gaza Strip to patrol the area and keep the peace has become a desirable and necessary option. Simply promising to reinforce the homes, businesses, hospitals, schools, malls, and other buildings to make them better able to withstand the rocket attacks is insufficient, irresponsible and completely inadequate. Election or no election in the offing, protecting the people of Israel is job one Mr. Netanyahu, not the strengthening of your coalition in the Knesset. What may not be obvious to you is that by assuring the safety and security of the people you also assure the size and loyalty of your coalition in the Knesset.

In both the United States and Israel there will be elections within a few months. The United States will have their election within fourteen days and may very well end up a referendum not only on President Obama’s performance in his first term, Obama Care, the economy, or any of the other items the American people have been fed for the whole election year thus far, it may well be a referendum on Benghazi and who will most likely keep the American people safe and the United States strong and respected with a sufficient dose of feared that nobody would ever consider attacking Americans anywhere in the world. In Israel the election might be a referendum on the authenticity of a return as an innocent man into politics by Ehud Olmert, or the return of Tzipi Livni. What should be the issues are a leader who will put the final nails to seal the coffin where the Oslo accords have been laid for some time by Mahmoud Abbas and his refusal to compromise or even discuss compromise, protection of the citizens living under constant threat in southern Israel from the rockets, mortars and other attacks originating from the Gaza Strip under the direction of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and related terror groups, the acceptance and application of the Levy Report along with all it implies, and stand firm before the hatreds and bigotries of too much of this world and establish that Israel is entitled to every millimeter of lands guaranteed under the numerous agreements including but not limited to the Peel Commission, San Remo Conference, Churchill White Papers, and Article 80 of the United Nations. The other way in which the United States and Israel are facing a similar situation is the possibility that the upcoming election in each country could have an effect on the entirety of each country’s future beyond what anyone can anticipate. Act One in two weeks and Act Two scheduled for late January of next year. The time between these two important dates should prove interesting, especially on how the results of the first could have influences on the second. These surely are interesting times but as such, are these a good thing or a curse as the Chinese believe.

Beyond the Cusp

Stars Aligned Allowing Push for Israeli-Palestinian Peace

There has been a fair amount of optimism now that Prime Minister Netanyahu sits at the head of probably the largest coalition majority of Israeli history and that now is the time to push for Israeli-Palestinian peace. The conclusion is right about this being the time to push for Israeli-Palestinian peace but the chosen target to be pushed is in error. The path available to push for an Israeli-Palestinian peace is possible if the world will recognize the opportunity to finally apply pressure on Mahmoud Abbas to take what it takes to facilitate a peace with Israel. The super-majority coalition behind Prime Minister Netanyahu would make reaching an agreement somewhat less improbable, but the main blockage to making progress is not Netanyahu but rather is Mahmoud Abbas, the Fatah leadership, the Palestinian Authority leadership, the Hamas leadership, the terror masters, and the results of the power turnover from the dictators to the Muslim Brotherhood dictatorial governance. Yet, there is an opportunity for progress if the powers that be realize this brief opening and can focus on somebody other than the Israelis as being the main inhibitor of moving forward.

Currently we are witnessing two faces being presented by Mahmoud Abbas, neither of which should be considered conducive to peace. The first is his globe hopping and petitioning of world bodies such as the United Nations Security Council, General Assembly, UNESCO, and yet to be announced organizations with the IMF and the EU being high on the suspect list in order to gain recognition of Palestine as a recognized full-fledged member State included among the nations of the world. At the same time, President Abbas and other leaders of the Palestinian Authority have had their hands out beseeching the regular financial supporters to cough up a few billion more dollars or else they are threatening the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority and the return of the intifada on Israel and the world as unavoidable if they are not empowered to prevent such. It is this presumed dire requirement for emergency funding which could be utilized to push for a peace arrangement. Unfortunately, it is all too likely that the world will continue with its blinkered vision which only allows for Israel to be the reason for the lack of peace. The leaders and opinion shapers in governments, NGOs, and the media will reiterate the myth of the peaceful Palestinians who are being denied their rightful inheritance of the land of Palestine by the colonizing Jews and Zionists of Israel who are in occupation of the West Bank and Gaza against all international laws and human morality that are to blame for all the problems throughout the Middle East and potentially the entire universe.

For once, let us make a little trip through another avenue available and look at the Arab-Israeli problem which is usually misnamed as the Israeli-Palestinian problem. The initial item that we encounter is that this conflict began well before the founding of Israel and well before there were any so-called occupied territories. Another adjustment to what is wrongfully referred to as common knowledge is that Israel pulled out every single Jewish resident and every IDF soldier from all of the Gaza Strip in 2005 and that area has not been occupied in any way, shape or form by Israel since. Also, do not even begin with the canard that the blockade which has been recognized as legal be the United Nations is a form of occupation. The blockade was not implemented immediately after Israel turned Gaza over to the Palestinian Authority. The naval blockade of Gaza was initiated after Hamas took over control in Gaza in a bloody insurrection removing Abbas and the Palestinian Authority from that area. Then, when Hamas began raining rockets down on Israeli towns and kibbutzim in southern Israel, then Israel initiated the naval blockade in order to minimize the avenues for massive arms shipments to the Hamas terror government in the Gaza Strip. So, that removes Israel from anything Gaza related as that has been completely returned to Palestinian rule and is currently occupied by Hamas.

As for Judea and Samaria, currently well over eighty percent of Arab Palestinians live in an area that places them under complete Palestinian Authority rule. These are the Palestinians living in Area A where it is actually against the law for Israelis or Jews to even visit. Should an Israeli be required to enter Area A for any reason such as to hold negotiations they are required to receive special permission from the Palestinian Authority. Most of the remaining Palestinian Arab population resides in Area B which is under Palestinian Authority civil rule with security provided jointly by the Palestinian authority and the IDF. This arrangement has actually worked fairly well with only occasional disruption or failures from this security arrangement. Lastly, Area C contains almost all of the Jewish towns and communities and also includes the Jordan Valley Military Zones in which Israel maintains defensive security positions such as eastward and northward facing radars on the top of the rise at the western end of the Jordanian Valley in order to track any aerial movements that might threaten to enter into Israeli air space. The Jordan Valley is important for the tactical additional area it places between the heavily populated lowlands of the coastal plains within the Green Line as well as the major urban areas such as Tel Aviv, Haifa, and others. At first glance it would seem that a Palestinian State has already been established in Area A with some overlap between the Palestinians and Israelis in Area B while Israel has a critical tactical military need in retaining their installations in the Jordan Valley and the higher ground at its western edge. The rest of Area C contains the vast majority of the Israeli communities and IDF installations. Taking a purely tactical and logical look at the situation one might conclude that a Palestinian state could be formed with the lands from Area A and Area B and shared access in parts of the Jordan Valley while Israel retains Area C and the IDF bases in and adjacent to the Jordan Valley. About all this solution requires are the two sides to sign papers stating such.

This is both where the problem is and the solution lies. To get to the root of the problem, one needs look no further than the monetary crisis which the Palestinian authority has recently declared. This is the second such emergency financial situation within one year’s time. And it is the money that is at the root of why there is no peace treaty. The Palestinian Authority has over a third and possibly over half of their population on the government payroll. They have no real economic sources able to finance such a pervasive government and it is doubtful any country could survive should they attempt the same ratio of government to private employment. This is the root of the lack of funds to keep the doors open, this over-bloated payroll which is simply a financial support system being implemented instead of developing an economy. The Palestinian Security Forces and Police Forces makeup the largest part of their government and also include most of the members from the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades as well as related groups. If ever Mahmoud Abbas showed a moment of insanity and accepted a State and the conflict with Israel ended, the money would dry up causing a near immediate crisis with thousands of Palestinians under threat of starvation. This is the main driving force behind the continuous circumvention by preconditions or any means necessary to prevent any meaningful, if any, negotiations between the Palestinian and Israel. Mahmoud Abbas and the entire Palestinian leadership are thoroughly aware of the predicament they face. If ever there was the end of the conflict and a Palestinian state became a reality, it would collapse under the sheer weight of its government almost immediately. This allows an opening for peace.

Should the world simply impress upon President Abbas that without peace there will be no more money given by Europe, the United States, and the United Nations, then we would likely see some actions towards meeting by Mr. Abbas with whomever was Prime Minister of Israel and real negotiations would take place. Applying such leverage would allow for talks which would end with an agreement instead of an indignant Palestinian negotiating team storming brusquely out of the negotiations as they near an agreement and they had run out of demands with which to stall. Up to now that has been the modus operandi for the Palestinian negotiating teams which was taught them by none other than Yasser Arafat. But for any negotiations to take place and any real agreement to be forthcoming, the world will need to cut off the spigot and end the near infinite flow of money into the Palestinian Authority. There is no way in which the Palestinian leadership can be bribed into making peace for it is the flow of money which allows them to avoid peace and even makes peace untenable. A reverse bribe where the money stops and is only given as a reward that peace will become possible. The current scheme where Mahmoud Abbas whines and pouts about some dire financial catastrophe coming near, should treasures not flow immediately, then Mahmoud Abbas will be unable to prevent the outbreak of violence which surely will follow upon the collapse of the Palestinian Authority. Just this once, call his bluff and simply show President Abbas the money and then keep it and demand he negotiate and then upon a peace agreement, a signed peace agreement, then the money will once again flow to assist the Palestinians to live in peace with Israelis. Many would likely claim that this is insane and could never work. Our claim is to agree it is an insane idea because we will never see it tried and thus it cannot work.

Beyond the Cusp