Iran Continues Sailing Forward Unhindered

Iran and their quest for nuclear weapons capability has had more smooth sailing with little bother from the world at large. Sure there has been escalating economic sanctions which, with the able and quiet assistance of a select group including Iraq, Syria, China, India and likely a few other friends; Iran has managed to continue selling much of its oil and finding the necessary items for their research. Much of the sanctions, as they usually end up doing, have mostly been passed onto the people and are simply an inconvenience for the people they are presumed to be affecting. Once again the IAEA, which may as well stand for Idiots Attempting Every Angle instead of United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency, once again spend Friday being insulted and refused cooperation by their Iranian hosts as they have any number of times previously. The United States and Israel continued their argument on the extent of urgency which should be shown concerning the Iranian nuclear program, as it is euphemistically called. The Israelis hyperventilate while the American tells them to take a few pills and calm themselves before they hurt themselves. Most of the rest of the world would likely need some explanation as to what you were on should you mention the existence of serious concerns referencing Iran.

Even the new satellite data from the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) showing new actions concealing some of the buildings of interest at the Iranian Military Base at Parchin where it is suspected research into a nuclear trigger brought little if any reaction outside of the Israeli press. Reports from diplomatic sources were also troubling reporting that Iran had sped up their instillation of centrifuges at the Fordo uranium enrichment facility outside Qom and had installed hundreds of a new series centrifuges. This is the site which Israel has claimed consistently cannot be allowed to begin full scale operations due to its location. The fact that the Fordo site was built deeply into the side of a mountain is considered difficult to destroy or even damage using conventional missiles or bombing. Some military planners have claimed that it would take a ground assault in order to deliver sufficient damage to destroy the installation without using deep-penetrating non-conventional weaponry. This should quicken the pace of the music for the dance between the Israelis and the Americans.

What will be the end result of all the conflicted confusion concerning Iran? Well, that may depend on the American elections this November. Should everything remain the same, it looks very likely that Iran will attain nuclear weapons capability and will likely even be able to produce two or three nuclear devices should they desire by middle of next year. Where these would be nuclear devices, it is very likely they will not be deliverable devices which will likely take an additional year, or so many people are hoping is the case. Without a serious change in the attitude of much of the world, Iran will eventually achieve full nuclear weapons capability and even build a small core nuclear weapons cache. What they will use them for has as many options as there are people who have been asked to assess the future. At the very least, the Iranians will be more capable of spreading terror over a wider range without having to worry about the ramifications. A nuclear Iran will simply be a license for increased terror around the whole globe, not just the Middle East. Iran and Hezballah have already committed acts of terror in Buenos Aires, Argentina and have established a permanent base in the tri-state area in South America. There have been rumors of Hezballah forming a coalition with drug cartels in Mexico. How much bolder and further will they decide to go when nuclear weapons make them even bolder and less inhibited? I, for one, am not too anxious to find out.

Beyond the Cusp

The Growing Threat Named Syria

As much of a threat to life, limb, property and any semblance of normalcy posed by the ongoing civil war in Syria, it has taken a second seat in the last few days to some new threats which extend beyond the Syrian border. The numbers of excursions of Syrian troops still loyal to Bashir Assad across Syrian borders have become both more frequent and increasingly violent. There have been a number of shooting incidents within Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan causing each of the threatened countries to increase their military presence along their borders with Syria. Turkey has announced that they will consider taking interventional actions should such transgression continue. The Turkish government has also stationed heavy armor, fighter aircraft, and helicopter gunships near the border as a precaution. Both Lebanon and Jordan have seriously stepped up their military presence on their borders with Syria and issued stern warnings against further incursions threatening dire and violent reaction to any provocation. All three neighbors have taken steps to facilitate their current numbers of refugees and have announced they intend to continue to allow additional refugees escaping the violence in Syria to cross their borders. For the first time Syrian troops crossed the armistice line into the demilitarized zone established by a truce with Israel. Israel has filed a complaint with the United Nations and had already reinforced their troops in the Golan Heights as a precaution long ago. Israel has said they are willing to accept Syrian refugees on an individual basis with those requiring medical assistance getting more favorable treatment. But these excursions are the least of the new threats coming out of Syria.

There has been a growing concern relating to the chemical weapons stored in undisclosed caches on military bases. Some have expressed serious concerns about the likelihood of proper precautions being in place to prevent these weapons of mass destruction falling into the hands of terror groups. Depending on the country where these concerns originate, these concerns stress the expected terror groups with the United States and Europe expressing the highest concern about al-Qaeda, while Israel was primarily concerned about Hezballah, as Hezballah is presently aiding the Assad extra-military forces along with the IRGC al-Quds forces as well as the Shabiba paramilitary mercenaries, and had secondary concerns which include Hamas, Fatah, and the other Palestinian terror forces. Syria announced in the past few days statements meant to calm the world’s concerns over these dangerous chemical weapons claiming they have taken steps to assure they are secure and not able to be taken by the rebels of terrorist groups, which Assad has claimed are one and the same. Assad spokespersons have also made assurances that they have no plan to use their supplies of chemical weapons in the ongoing fighting against internal Syrian forces but threatened their use against any external forces which might be sent to interfere or support the rebels against the Assad government. Some experts interpreted this as a threat against Israel while others saw it as a more universal threat also aimed at the Europeans, the United States, or multi-governmental organizations such as the European Union, NATO or the United Nations. Where this threat is an obvious cry of a regime in its later stages of collapse and defeat, this threat should be taken deadly seriously and viewed as an opening salvo of possibly more desperate measures which may be considered more palatable as the situation grows more dire.

It should not be taken that the Assad guarantees that chemical weapons will not be used against the rebel forces as the final word on the subject. One must remember that Bashir Assad has regularly referred to the rebel forces as being aided by terrorists, consisting completely of terrorists, and as being forces sent by alien countries and does not consist of many actual Syrians. Should Assad, as things grow dim and his rule faces being extinguished, become truly desperate and believe that only the use of chemical weapons can assure his continuing to rule in Syria or even to keep him from a fate similar to that of Gadhafi, his promise may not be worth anything and his desire to continue his rule and preserve his life take precedence pushing him to utilize such weapons. It is in such a situation where Assad is quite likely to reiterate his claim that the forces against him are foreign terrorists and thus may be engaged with the use of chemical weapons as he has already said would be used on foreign forces. This possibility is the one option which may be the end result of the Assad regime’s statements concerning their chemical weapons caches. The best current hope for the Syrian people and Syria’s neighbors would be Bashir Assad availing himself of the offer proffered by a ministerial committee of the Arab League who called on Assad to “renounce power,” promising that he and his family would be offered “a safe exit.” Unfortunately, I fear that Assad will act similarly to virtually every other megalomaniacal dictator and will only leave feet first and all boxed up for delivery to the next world.

Beyond the Cusp

Middle East Boiling Over Could Grant One Promise

The changes throughout the Middle East continue as things roil over and the predictions of the press and politicians in the West slowly are revealed to be nothing but errors and misjudgments. There are a select few who are still insisting on bending, twisting, contorting, and transmuting the evidential facts emanating from the Middle East in such a manner as to make it all fit their expectations. Some of the worst offenders of truth are members of the White House and advise President Obama. Let us take a look at some of the most egregious mutations of truth being presented as fact and reality. The most amusing among these has been the persistence of the idea that Kofi Annan can bring an end to the carnage occurring in Syria through meetings held outside of Syria with panels made up of people and leaders who are not Syrian. The latest twist or turn in this saga will be a meeting in Geneva consisting of Foreign Ministers from countries of presumably powerful nations as well as some from nations who may have an interest or reside in the area surrounding Syria. While this meeting of great minds will include people representing Russia, the United States among others, it at least had the foresight and wisdom not to include Israel in the discussion. Oh, one last point; Syrian President Assad has already stated his rejection for any compromise or suggestion which may be forthcoming from this conclave.

 

Another item that would be amusing, was it not so serious a misreading of actual events and egregious misinterpretation of stated words and intentions which could only be the result of pure flights of fancy, would be Secretary of State Clinton’s view of events in Egypt. Much of this has to do with the reactions and statements made by Secretary of State Clinton as well as other members of President Obama’s staff and Cabinet. All of these mischaracterizations have to do with the newly elected Egyptian President and other election results and actions over the future for governance of Egypt. Egyptian President Morsi gave a speech celebrating his election victory and setting the tone for the future of Egypt under his leadership. Among the statements made in a relatively lengthy speech, these little nuggets were in the translations, “The Koran is our constitution, the Prophet is our leader, jihad is our path and death in the name of Allah is our goal,” and “Today we can establish Sharia law because our nation will acquire well-being only with Islam and Sharia. The Muslim Brothers and the Freedom and Justice Party will be the conductors of these goals.” Secretary of State Clinton has reacted to the election and statements of President Morsi with signs of approval and expressing an expectation that future governance in Egypt will be of a liberal and agreeable nature and everything points towards a bright future for Egypt and relations between the United States and the Morsi government. Somebody must have gotten a bad translation or possibly the translation of his speech has yet to cross Madam Secretary’s desk.

 

Moving right along, we come to the futile meetings between the P5+1 and Iran over the nuclear issue. The fact that anybody still holds out hope that these negotiations will serve any purpose other than fill time in until Iran completes their efforts to place nuclear warheads upon their ballistic missiles and use them against Israel, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and/or even the United States is purely delusional. And placing the Foreign Minister of the European Union Catherine Ashton as the lead person in the negotiations was likely one of the great personnel errors of all time. Firstly, she is not a member of any of the governments of the countries represented in the negotiations. Secondly, she is a complete anti-Zionist and is enamored with the Arab and Muslim causes. Thirdly, she is another multiculturalist banner waving proponent who appears to find favor in any culture which deplores and condemns western civilization. And finally she has spoken in such glowing and admirable terms when referring to the chief Iranian negotiator that one would be forgiven if they believe that she is enamored with him much like a school girl’s crush. Yet, despite all that has occurred, the leaders of the West, President Obama in particular, still act under the perception that progress is being achieved and a solution is right around the corner. This is despite their having turned numerous similarly promising corners only to find another long stretch of dessert road to travel. Charlie Brown is more likely to finally realize that Lucy will pull the ball away just before he kicks landing him on his backside long before any of these leaders realize that Iran is Lucy playing them for Charlie Brown and Iran has an endless supply of footballs.

 

I promised at least one bright side, so here it goes. This concerns the difficulties between Israel and the Palestinians and the rest of the world. The Palestinian Authority leadership under Mahmoud Abbas has escalated their threats and posturing demanding a complete and unilateral concession on every possible issue by Israel or numerous threats will be unleashed. This past week Abbas and his associates placed the demand that Israel withdraw from all the lands liberated during the 1967 War including all of East Jerusalem including the entire Old City, establish a Palestinian State on this surrendered land with Jerusalem as the Capital, release all Palestinian prisoners from Israeli detention, and accommodate the acceptance of all the refugees resultant from the displacement of Arabs from the 1948 War into Israel with full restitution of all properties they claim and full Israeli citizenship or else the Palestinians will initiate a third Intifada. These overt threats came less than a week after Hamas and related allied terror groups fired over one-hundred-fifty rockets and mortars into southern Israel in just under one week. This included one barrage of approximately twenty rockets within one hour. Meanwhile, newly elected Egyptian President Morsi sat nodding in agreement on a stage during an introductory speech given by an Imam while he declared that the new Caliphate, the United States of Arabs would soon be founded with al-Quds (Jerusalem) as its Capital. Add in statements out of Iran and from Hezballah in Lebanon with the possibility of an attack out of Syria resulting from the unrest plaguing that nation, the belligerence that has replaced the once harmonious relations between Turkey and Israel and one inevitability arises, the probability of an armed conflict between Israel and some combination of aggressors likely including Egypt, Hamas, PRC Gaza, Palestinian Authority, al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade from Judea and Samaria, Iran in coordination with Hezballah in Lebanon, and even possibly Turkey who may demand the full support as obligated by treaty from all NATO members. Should some form of open warfare be unavoidable in the near future and Israel manage to repel the attackers, one should expect that when the fighting ends that Israel will claim as her borders the very farthest of the front lines with all the lands west of the Jordan River as a minimal start. If Israel is, Heaven forbid, forced into another war in order to continue to exist, the world should brace themselves for Israel choosing whatever favorable borders she desires from the point where her enemies accept defeat and agree to forever end their violence and desires to destroy the Jewish State or the Jewish People. There will be no more questions over Israeli right to Judea, Samaria, all of Jerusalem, the Golan Heights, even possibly up to the Litani River in Lebanon. My prayers are whatever the next conflict to break out in the Middle East, no matter who is involved and whether Israel is attacked or it is between two or more countries none of which are Israel, that the rest of the world can manage not to be dragged, pulled, coerced or forced to join the conflict. Unfortunately, if I had to make a bet, my bet would be the next conflict in the Middle East will be between Iran and the countries of the GCC, namely Saudi Arabia and the other oil kingdoms which neighbor her. That conflict could very rapidly escalate into a world consuming conflagration. That would be simply horrendous and tumultuous situation, to say the least.

 

 

Beyond the Cusp