Have the Talks Failed?

Sometimes, when allowed to, talks between two sides reach a point where no further compromise is possible. Both sides feel they have given enough or one side has done the far greater amount of giving while the other side has refused to make even the slightest of concessions. The talks have been ongoing with an on again off again drumbeat which marked the passage of time, not agreements. Even pressure put upon the talks with expressions of the grave and vital importance made clear. Grand schemes have been proposed and failed to force a change in either side. President Obama has made demands that were designed to facilitate progress, yet there was still no progress. Everybody around the world has had their two cents worth of advice and the talks have stalled again and again. Grand bargains have been offered and have caused a crack of light to appear signaling perhaps a miracle only to return to moribund silence between the two sides. The United Nations has pleaded and shown deep concern even to the point of offering to assist in any way they might be invited, but that too fell on deaf ears. What is a world to do when one side of a situation that screams out for justice and compromise refuses compromises and chooses to scream about the injustices that have been done to them. And all that has befell the intransigent side the other claims they have brought upon themselves by taking the path of refusal and obstinacy.

But with the New Year there are signs that President Obama will bring changes and by his will alone force movement in the talks towards a mutually beneficial resolution. His promises sound vaguely familiar; perhaps we have heard these promises before. Vice President Biden makes a plea restating an old offer expressing the hope that this is the time that perchance this offer should be accepted. Then, with only a moment’s wait, a mere few days, and the obstinate side remains obstinate, refusing the offer with a steely cold denial. There is a deep exhalation as many had held their breathe anticipating a change, but alas there will be no movement. There is still hope that there can be a new round of talks made possible if only there is the perseverance to bring it to fruition. We wait often believing we caught sight of the glimmer of the light of hope but then again it may have just been flashes in our own eyes and nothing of the tangible sort. Can there be progress? Should we still hold out hope? What if the worst of the worst should come and the talks prove to be futile and have been merely a long exercise in futility? Will we be able to face the consequences and do what we know must be done? If we refuse to admit the failure, then what will become of us? Will the impasse lead to war as had been predicted by some who told us long ago that our faith in talks was fruitless? Will there be no other way out of the predicament which we now find ourselves having to admit? It is too harsh a reality. The talks must be reopened and another chance be given for progress, compromise, a last hope. We have to allow the time for talks to work, and they will work, they must work. But what if they don’t?

President Obama has told us that the talks would lead to peace and security and put an end to any difficulties, any threats, any dangers. The President assured us in dulcet tones that he could make the talks work if only they would listen to his generous offers and reasonable requests. Kindness, after all, always calms and defeats harsh rhetoric, heals wounds and works wonders, after all, did not his promises and words win him election? All we had to do is allow his words to work their spell. But now his words have the hint of panic and defeat and have lost some of their melodic and hypnotic overtones. His sweet overtures have slowly changed taking on a rasp of harshness and now have the sharp retort-filled tones of rapid gunfire.

There is to be yet another round of talks, or so we have been led to believe. Can they really make any difference at this late date? Why should we continue to hold out hope as all has certainly proven hopeless? The last refusal of a generous offer of direct talks had the dead tones of finality. The discussions with the arm of the United Nations on their dual track was refused and abruptly cut off just a short while ago. Their track seems to have come to their end. They have reached the gorge and there does not appear to be a bridge. Are our tracks equally coming to that gorge that has no bridge? It will be a harsh pill to swallow if the warnings from Israel prove true. What do we do now that there is no path forward through discourse and all the talking has been revealed to be a ruse used to stall for time? What are we to do? Yes, sure we will go ahead with the talks we have managed to agree we will hold, but if they fail once again, then what?

And for the really big question, what is it that President Obama will be discussing on his trip to Israel next month? We have been told that President Obama will not be making any plans to force a reopening of the equally moribund talks between Israel and the Palestinians and they plan other discussion. Could it be that President Obama will be talking with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to advise him of what will come should the last gasp talks with Iran continue to fail? With the growing reluctance and intransigence by Iran and the obvious failure of the P5+1 talks to produce even the smallest concession which could be verified, what can we expect other than a waste of breathe and time with another round of talks. It really does seem obvious that we have been talking just to hear ourselves talk. Perhaps we must admit to ourselves that we have been talking because the alternative is too frightening to even think about. We have been so determined to avoid what has been the inevitability of the rising menace named Iran that we have talked ourselves almost to death. While we aimed to avoid war Iran has aimed for the ultimate weapon of war and our determination of avoidance has brought them dangerously close to their goal, maybe even they have attained what they desired. What will we tell our children if we find that Iran has truly reached the goal and now already possesses a small cache of nuclear devices? How will we excuse our timidity which enabled the rising bully to so equip itself? Have we talked ourselves to the brink of doom or beyond, that is the question that needs an immediate answer. And what are we going to do even if the answer is affirmative? Will we then continue to talk only this time the talk will be about how much we surrender before it becomes too much. What if we talked ourselves into that oblivion? As Shakespeare wrote, “Methinks the Lady doth protest too much.” Have we so protested too much and now are left with too little leverage to gain advantage? Did we whittle away any advantage we originally had? That would indeed be a sad state of affairs. Very sad.

Beyond the Cusp

President Obama Reelected

All night long Americans were laser focused on Ohio waiting for the decision to basically announce the eventual winner of the Presidential elections. There will be plenty of blame to pass around though none of the finger-pointing will serve any purpose beyond allowing venting of pent up frustrations. Now all that is left is to make the predictions of what President Obama being reelected means for the United States and the world. Who are the big winners and who will be the big losers will be bandied back and forth. I can safely claim that my vote made absolutely no actual difference as I do not live in one of the states where there was any doubt as to who would win the state’s Electoral College votes. So, what predictions can we foresee resulting from President Obama’s victorious reelection bid?

 

The most obvious result is that the Affordable Health Care Act (Obama Care) will be enacted and everybody will finally fully realize exactly what is in the bill as was promised by then Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi would only happen once the bill was passed. We can expect the House of Representatives to be castigated by the President, Vice President, Democrats in the House of Representatives and Senate, and much of the mainstream media for being obstructionist and confrontational when the Republican majority there does not pass legislation and other parts of the President’s agenda. With the Democrats retaining their majority in the Senate we can expect there to be the same budget standoff as has existed for the past three years and there will likely not be an actual budget passed until after the midterm elections at the earliest if at all for the rest of President Obama’s time in office. The emergency forced budget cuts will very likely be allowed to take effect as there will be no agreement in time to avoid what will prove to be a catastrophic result. These cuts will have critical and possibly devastating effect on the United States military preparedness and abilities. The Supreme Court will be transformed from its current perceived conservative leaning into a much more strongly liberal as President Obama will very likely get to appoint three and possibly four Supreme Court Justices with at least two of the Justices replaced will be from the conservative end of the Court. There is a group of conservatives who will actually gain fiscally despite their steady delivery of doom and gloom, the conservative talk show broadcasters. The economy will likely continue to slowly make meager gains and will be touted as a steady, controlled building under the intelligent and steady leadership and stewardship of President Obama. We can expect a few months of liberal “told you so” bragging from some of the more liberal elites. But what about the expectations abroad?

 

There is a distinct possibility that there will be an attempt to sign on to a treaty which will heavily curtail firearms sales if not also ownership either with the United Nations or with a foreign country likely Mexico which had been the likely intent behind the Fast and Furious fiasco. There is a much higher chance that when the Palestinians seek a declaration recognizing them as a country with the 1949 Armistice Lines (the Green Line also known as the 1967 Lines) as the recognized border through the United Nations that the United States will not apply their veto and instead simply abstain allowing it to pass the Security Council. Should this come to pass, then it can be expected that within the next year or two that the Palestinian Authority will be admitted into the United Nations with full membership as the nation of Palestine. Expect for direct negotiations to be announced with Iran and the United States over the Iranian nuclear program. These negotiations will likely result in an agreement which will allow for Iran to continue to produce fuel for their nuclear reactors and research in exchange for their guarantee that they will not produce any working nuclear weapons and submit to regular inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This will lead to an arms race with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and possibly other Middle East and North African nations and even a distinct probability of other developing nations all pursuing nuclear weapons due to their suspicions that Iran will still work to develop their own and because there will be no honest impediments to prevent the demise of the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty). Israel will face a unified international front opposing any thoughts of attempting to destroy or otherwise impede the Iranian nuclear program and they would have an arms embargo applied should they ignore these warnings and attack Iranian nuclear sites.

 

The Arab Spring, I mean Arab Winter, will expand in the near future with the monarchies being the next targets for replacement with “elected” governments which will simply be the venue utilized to put Islamist governments in place after the governments fall. Turkey will accelerate their slide to fall under Sharia as will Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and any new nations which will fall under Islamic influence. Some of the nations facing such a threat include but are not limited to Kenya, Nigeria, and Mali. Much of Afghanistan will return to Taliban control and Pakistan will come under control of Islamist extremists. Even if Bashir Assad falls, Syria will then come under the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood. Lebanon very well may return to the violence of a civil war once Bashir Assad falls as Hezballah will not give up their control without a fight. Europe will continue to have a growing Muslim influence as their Muslim populations continue to increase. This will be further aggravated by financial difficulties for much of the European Union members which will eventually begin to drag down the nations who will be expected to carry the financial burdens of the entire EU. We could see the EU be dissolved as the financially stable countries refuse to continue to bail out the financially troubled nations, especially as the troubled countries elect governments which refuse to continue austerity measures, especially if riots and lawlessness continues to grow. This might be able to be avoided briefly should President Obama manage to find a method for the United States to assist Germany, France and whomever else are attempting to hold the European Union together. This would lead to another round of Quantitative Easing if the United States has not considerably increased the rate of their economic recovery. What will remain to be seen is whether or not the United States will be able to find a controlled way of siphoning off the large amounts of dollars that have been invented electronically to fund the Quantitative Easing which was used to bail out the different financial difficulties and attempt to soften the downturn of the economy. Failing to find such an avenue will spur steadily increasing inflation which will run a risk of becoming a runaway problem. This will require either raising interest rates, possibly considerably, or raising taxes or some combination of the two. Both of these actions will dampen the recovery which will then put pressure on the government to retreat from these measures. Any way one looks at this it presents a very difficult problem and some amount of fiscal pain will have to be suffered before everything will once again equal out and balance.

 

None of this is to say that reelecting President Obama was a mistake by the American electorate as it was nowhere near guaranteed that Mitt Romney would have presented a necessarily better alternative. A Romney Presidency would have taken a different approach more than likely but until we actually witness how the coming Obama Presidency handles and deals with these vexing problems we cannot definitively answer that question. One thing we can be assured is that there will be endless second guessing over these election results going forward. All the second guessing and what ifs will amount to nothing more than noise. No matter how many times going forward some will say if only or we should have it will not change what actually is and is a waste of time, effort and breath. Instead, those who spend time second guessing would serve everybody far better by attempting to work with what is and forget about what will not be. The choice has been made, the dye cast, the ballots counted (and likely some recounted) and the time for thinking of what else could have been done is passed. Now Americans need to work together with what is and make it be for the best and seek changes should they be your desire at the next election. Working to have President Obama fail hurts the country and should not be something anybody should desire. The course is set and we need to do what we can to guide the Ship of State through what is very likely going to be difficult waters full of jagged rocks, icebergs, and dangerous obstacles that would have menaced whoever won. It was President Obama and he cannot rule alone and will need to compromise and bend at least some amount if he is to reach agreements with the whole of the country. We can only hope for the best and pray we avoid the worst and be prepared to face whichever the future will hold.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Iran Continues Sailing Forward Unhindered

Iran and their quest for nuclear weapons capability has had more smooth sailing with little bother from the world at large. Sure there has been escalating economic sanctions which, with the able and quiet assistance of a select group including Iraq, Syria, China, India and likely a few other friends; Iran has managed to continue selling much of its oil and finding the necessary items for their research. Much of the sanctions, as they usually end up doing, have mostly been passed onto the people and are simply an inconvenience for the people they are presumed to be affecting. Once again the IAEA, which may as well stand for Idiots Attempting Every Angle instead of United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency, once again spend Friday being insulted and refused cooperation by their Iranian hosts as they have any number of times previously. The United States and Israel continued their argument on the extent of urgency which should be shown concerning the Iranian nuclear program, as it is euphemistically called. The Israelis hyperventilate while the American tells them to take a few pills and calm themselves before they hurt themselves. Most of the rest of the world would likely need some explanation as to what you were on should you mention the existence of serious concerns referencing Iran.

Even the new satellite data from the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) showing new actions concealing some of the buildings of interest at the Iranian Military Base at Parchin where it is suspected research into a nuclear trigger brought little if any reaction outside of the Israeli press. Reports from diplomatic sources were also troubling reporting that Iran had sped up their instillation of centrifuges at the Fordo uranium enrichment facility outside Qom and had installed hundreds of a new series centrifuges. This is the site which Israel has claimed consistently cannot be allowed to begin full scale operations due to its location. The fact that the Fordo site was built deeply into the side of a mountain is considered difficult to destroy or even damage using conventional missiles or bombing. Some military planners have claimed that it would take a ground assault in order to deliver sufficient damage to destroy the installation without using deep-penetrating non-conventional weaponry. This should quicken the pace of the music for the dance between the Israelis and the Americans.

What will be the end result of all the conflicted confusion concerning Iran? Well, that may depend on the American elections this November. Should everything remain the same, it looks very likely that Iran will attain nuclear weapons capability and will likely even be able to produce two or three nuclear devices should they desire by middle of next year. Where these would be nuclear devices, it is very likely they will not be deliverable devices which will likely take an additional year, or so many people are hoping is the case. Without a serious change in the attitude of much of the world, Iran will eventually achieve full nuclear weapons capability and even build a small core nuclear weapons cache. What they will use them for has as many options as there are people who have been asked to assess the future. At the very least, the Iranians will be more capable of spreading terror over a wider range without having to worry about the ramifications. A nuclear Iran will simply be a license for increased terror around the whole globe, not just the Middle East. Iran and Hezballah have already committed acts of terror in Buenos Aires, Argentina and have established a permanent base in the tri-state area in South America. There have been rumors of Hezballah forming a coalition with drug cartels in Mexico. How much bolder and further will they decide to go when nuclear weapons make them even bolder and less inhibited? I, for one, am not too anxious to find out.

Beyond the Cusp