Beyond the Cusp

February 20, 2014

Iran Offers Saudi Arabian and Wahhabi Leadership First Opportunity

In Islam one must make available to one’s foes the opportunity to recognize their errors and apostasy and submit to Allah and choose to worship in the traditional Islamic manner you proscribe to. This offer must be proposed three times and after all three chances have been refused and the offending entity has refused to submit, then one is permitted to use any method and amount of violent force in order to convert or eradicate the non-believer. What makes this procedure even more interesting is that this even applies when one of the subgroups within Islam has decided to bring other Muslims to their true vision of Islam and away from their apostate and impure practice of a false form of Islam. Where this applies in the coming confrontation in the Middle East is that the Sunni and Shia each view the other as apostates following a false narrative of insult to Islam. There is a long history of these two main branches of Islam going to war in an effort to eradicate the other. The beginning of this divide came very early in the history of Islam and is centered on who was the righteous successor to Mohammad after his death. The Sunni believe that Abu Bakr, the father of Muhammad’s wife Aisha, was Muhammad’s rightful successor while the Shia believe that Muhammad divinely ordained his cousin and son-in-law Ali, the father of his grandsons Hasan ibn Ali and Hussein ibn Ali, to be his rightful successor. Both Sunni and Shia follow the Five Pillars of Islam but it has been their differences which the two have concentrated upon leading to numerous wars over the thousand years plus these two versions of Islam have existed. They are still adversarial into the modern era though they both have ignored their differences when battling Israel and the rest of Western society. Still, with the rise of Iran as a major power in the Middle East, they are apparently preparing to make another drive to drive Shia Islam to be predominant through the eradication or submission of the Sunni followers of Islam. What drives their desires even further is the possibility of also gaining complete control of all the oil of the Middle East by acquiring the Saudi Arabian oil fields as a bonus as they impose Shia Islam on the predominantly Sunni Saudis.

 

The Iranians are feeling invincible after their complete routing of the Western powers with the recent agreement which Iran has interpreted as having received a reprieve from the majority of the sanctions for so little a price that they feel they received this basically for free. The Iranians have made it abundantly clear that they do not perceive of having made any concessions to United States President Obama and the P5+1 talks in Geneva. We have noted a number of times that Iran would make moves on either Saudi Arabia (from December 9,2013 Northeastern Saudi and Eastern Gulf Oil Fields the New Sudetenland and from April 26, 2012 Iran Aims For All Middle East Oil) or the United States initially and attack both well before they ever turn their attentions on Israel. That is not to imply that the Iranians will not make life in Israel uncomfortably challenging, it is just they will rely on attacking Israel piecemeal using Hamas, Hezballah and Syria but the last two will have to wait until at least some months after the Syrian Civil War has been completed with Bashir al-Assad still in power. Iran may also be making inroads with Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria, the West Bank, hoping to utilize them as another front with Israel once they have attained as much as possible using the United States to force a solution upon the Israelis granting them their statehood. In the meantime the Iranians will simply use their influence with Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza and the disparate terrorist entities including al-Qaeda to attack Israel from the Sinai. The Iranians will also, though not likely directing or planning the strikes, be highly satisfied with any attacks on the Egyptian military controlled government of Egypt as they would prefer to have the Muslim Brotherhood, despite their Sunni observance, as an ally, though only temporarily and only as long as the Egyptians were useful in harassing and attacking Israel.

 

The immediate necessities on Iran’s plate are cementing their control over Iraq by assisting the Shia Iraqi government defeat the Sunni al-Qaeda backed forces in the center of that country and defeating the Sunni rebels in the Syrian Civil War. In the meantime Iran will provide Hezballah with whatever they need to continue their stranglehold on Lebanon and also aiding and providing much of the most effective forces in Syria allied to al-Assad. Once they have tamed the Sunni resistance and completed their crescent reaching from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea they will likely strengthen their ties with Turkey providing Erdogan manages to remain in power which is very probable. Once the Iranians have settled and gained all the allies peaceably they can turn their sights on those gains which will require the use of military force. The initial steps in that agenda have already been taken. The Iranians have recently attacked not just the Saudi Arabian government, but also the Wahhabi Sunni sect that is the ideological underpinning of the Saudi Arabian regime and the enforcers for the Saudi Royal Family who back the Wahhabis with petro-dollars. The Iranians have recently declared the Wahhabis to be “worse than Jews” and heretical and stated that, “If they refuse to convert (to Shia Islam from Sunni Islam) killing them is not a sin.” The next step will be a second invitation to the Saudi Arabian Sunni influences of both the ruling Family Saud and the Wahhabi clerics and followers. Then we can expect for there to be some protests which will escalate eventually turning violent. When the Saudi Arabian government sends in troops to put down the Shia protesters and violence and enforce their hold on the oil fields located in northeast Saudi Arabia, this will give Iran the reason d’etre to send their final notice to the Saudis demanding they cease their violence against the Iranian Shia brothers and forsake their sinful, evil and apostate Sunni ways and adopt Shia Islam. The Saudis will not respond and will continue to secure their valuable property, their oil fields which are the basis of their wealth. This will give the Iranians the righteous cause to enter to protect their Shia brothers and as a convenient byproduct will also occupy and gain the Saudi Arabian oilfields. With the first salvo just fired with the invitation by Iran for the Saudi Arabian leaders, people and their Wahhabi religious communities to give up their apostolic Sunni beliefs and adopt the true Shia version of Islam, the only thing left is to wait and make sure we do not miss the next salvo when Iran, likely from Ayatollah Khamenei, their Supreme Leader, makes a public plea for the people, leaders and clerics of Saudi Arabia and the Wahhabi sect to join the true faith of Shia Islam and join with Iran in service of Allah. When that second invitation is given you can bet that Iran will already have a small arsenal of nuclear weapons. The sickening truth is they likely have already produced a small number of functioning warheads to have taken this step. Even if that is not the case, they obviously feel confident that they will be so armed and sooner rather than later. The time has come to scrutinize everything emanating from Iran with great concern and consider every possible ramification.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 12, 2013

Who Guards the Gates of Europe if not Israel?

There have been a number of invasions of Europe from out of Asia and the Middle East throughout history. There was the Persian conquest which finally was reversed by the Greek City States following one of the most famous historic stands by King Leonidas and his Spartan warriors at Thermopylae where three-hundred held the pass between the cliffs and the sea for three days against an army numbering in the hundreds of thousands. Those three days did not turn the Persians back but did permit the Greek City States to gather together and eventually turn back the Persians.  These were the same Persians who defeated the remnants of the Babylonian Empire freeing the Israelites allowing them to return to Eretz Yisroel and rebuild their Temple in Jerusalem. The most persistent source of armies intent on trying to conquer Europe since the seventh century has been the Muslims who have attacked Europe from both the east and the west coming from the Middle East as well as from northern Africa by way of the Straights of Gibraltar. The Islamic armies were twice turned back attacking from the east at the gates of Vienna as well as while under Ottoman rule and leadership also having fought a long struggle against Romania. The strike into Europe by the Muslim Moors succeeded in conquering Spain and the Iberian Peninsula renaming it Al-Andalusia. This assault was turned back by Charles the Hammer Martel at the battle of Tours in southern France. Spain eventually revolted against Islamic rule starting around 1492 with the introduction of one of the most horrific purges in all of history, the Spanish Inquisition. After Spanish King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella liberated the Spanish peninsula from Moorish Islamic rule the only feared threat from Islam originated within the Ottoman Empire. After World War I the Ottoman Empire was divided between the French and British as victors in that struggle and the Ottoman Empire was no more with Turkey being the only remnant that remained under Islamic rule.

 

Islam has had two distinct periods where it was expansive conquering new lands. There are some who are claiming that the world is witnessing what may be the leading wave of another period where Islam will be resurgent. For the sake of argument let us simply accept this claim that we are witnessing the very beginning of the next resurgence of Islam and that their desires are fixated on Europe and the Western nations. The current military state of affairs in Europe is a far cry from the strong, sizeable and superbly armed and trained fighting forces which fought in World War II as the European leadership has redirected their attentions and interests on social spending and societal safety nets at the expense of funding their militaries. This has occurred while Europe has also faced reduced rates of reproduction leading to societies averaging a higher age and not even meeting replacement levels which appears to have tracked directly related to the loss of religious observance resulting from increasing secularism. This has led to an increase in the numbers of immigrants as a percentage of the societies which is leading to a diluting of the historical culture and threatening to transform Europe from its Christian legacy and Judeo-Christian based philosophy into an Islamic culture. Such a transformation would take quite some time and would very likely not take place peaceably. When the strife which would be inevitable began to break out, then the possibility of the Islamic nations from the Middle East and North Africa would likely come to the aid of the Muslims within Europe assisting them in whatever manner available. This could even result in an Islamic invasion of Europe using the resident Muslim populations as a fifth column using terrorism and sabotage to weaken the European defensive efforts and assisting the Islamic forces.

 

The immediate question that would come to mind is where the Europeans could turn to find an ally that could rescue them. The one nation which has been the protector of Europe since World War II has been the United States. There are questions as to what the future will be for the United States military strength as more and more socialism resembling the exact programs which led to the hollowing out of the European military abilities are enacted by the United States. There have been those, myself included, who have predicted that should government guaranteed healthcare known as Obamacare become the law of the land and be implemented then the United States will inevitably resort to some form of government provided and funded healthcare, very likely a single payer plan similar to the public healthcare systems in Canada and Europe. The rapidly expanding costs of such healthcare provisions will necessitate a greater funding for healthcare resulting in the healthcare budget taking a larger and larger percentage of the budget. This will inevitably be dealt with by decreasing the percentage of the military’s budgeted funds. This will leave Europe either vulnerable or finding another nation that would be willing and able to assist them in their struggles; otherwise they will be absorbed into the Islamist block of nations. There are only two nations to whom Europe will be able to turn after the United States assistance proves to be inadequate and unable to stem the rising tide of Islam, namely China or Israel. China would be one choice as they are a rising power and would be able to provide sufficient forces to completely change the balance of the struggle but at what price. But what could Israel actually offer?

 

The advantage Israel holds in assisting in protecting Europe from an Islamic invasion is all about location. Israel stands at the fulcrum of Europe, Asia and Africa and as such controls a vital area of passage leading to Europe’s eastern edge. Where Israel would not be able to completely stem the tide of Islamic armies moving against Europe, she would be able of reducing their numbers and maybe weakening them sufficiently that the combined militaries of the European nations and the United States, Canada and possibly Australia would be sufficient to prevent the conquest of Europe. Furthermore, with Israel placed where she is the Muslim nations would have to consider exactly how much of their military strength they would be willing to send to a war in Europe leaving their homeland susceptible to an Israeli strike. Israel, in such a war, would act very much like Britain had during World War II where she was unable to turn the tide and defeat the Nazi alliance by herself but by remaining as a base from which the added strength of the United States and her production capabilities as well as her military strength which was rapidly increased to meet the challenge, Britain served as the linchpin, the fulcrum of the allied resurgence and eventual defeat of the Axis powers. Without Britain as a staging grounds for the D-Day invasion there would have not been and invasion and the entire war’s outcome could very easily have been completely different. This is the same position that Israel holds in any war between the powers of Islam and Europe, may such a calamity never occur.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 11, 2013

A Look at the Future for the Jews and Christians of Europe

There have been numerous studies and commentaries pertaining to the rising anti-Semitism in much of Europe. There have also been eulogies for the Christian and Catholic Churches in Europe and often mentions of another church or cathedral being put up for sale and often being transformed into Mosques. This transformation mirrors the events in the Middle East, Northern Africa, Spain, Turkey and other locations where Islam spread during their periods of expansion as they conquered these lands and transformed them from Christian nations into Muslim majorities and dwindling Christian presence. Similar such occurrences are currently being witnessed in Egypt with the Coptic Christians, the Christians of Lebanon and the Christians of Bethlehem under Palestinian autonomy. The story is often told about the empty pews of the churches throughout most of Europe and the advance of secular statist humanism where the human is worshiped as the ultimate pinnacle of creation and the State is seen as the end all and arbiter of rights, privileges and petition which is nothing more than another variation of worship. The Christians have yet to face the animus which is being felt by the Jews in Europe.

That is where a recent survey taken of European Jews reveals the extent of the discomfort, one could say persecution, felt by the majority of Jews in Europe. Some of the statistics from the survey found that sixty-six percent of European Jews considered anti-Semitism “a fairly big or very big” problem in their country; seventy-six percent said anti-Semitism had worsened in the past five years, with abuse especially prevalent on the Internet with it particularly present in social media, especially where aliases hide the perpetrator’s real name; France, Belgium and Hungary reported the highest rates of anti-Semitism in the media and political life, as well vandalism and open hostility in public; twenty-one percent of people said they had experienced verbal or physical abuse in the last year for being Jewish; almost half feared experiencing public insults or harassment in the next year, with as close to twenty-three percent saying they purposely avoided Jewish sites or celebrations as they might not be safe; eighty-two percent of people did not report abuse or discrimination they had experienced to the authorities feeling it would be useless as nothing would be fully investigated and it would have no real effect on their situations; large number of European Jews are considering leaving because of the persecution they experience in the countries; the belief was found to be valid that a clear link between the demonization of Israel and attacks on Jews in Europe exists; sixty-eight percent of the Jews reported they have avoided appearing identifiably Jewish in public for fear of attack or harassment; eighty-two percent of those surveyed say they have heard Israelis being likened with Nazis; many of those respondents who had witnessed anti-Semitism saying that it had come from the Left with fifty-seven percent of those in Britain, sixty-two percent of those in Italy and sixty-seven percent of those in France said they had heard anti-Semitism from someone on the Left; racism against Jews from the Muslim community was reported by fifty-one percent of Jews in Sweden, fifty-six percent of Jews in Britain and seventy-three percent of Jews in France; and thirty-one percent of Jews had either considered or attempted emigration specifically as a result of anti-Semitism, while in France the figure is just below half.

Between these numbers and the known high rate of assimilated Jews who no longer practice their religion and the high rate of intermarriage, it is very likely that the end of a Jewish presence beyond some small communities of Orthodox and Hassidic Jews will remain in Europe by the middle of this century and certainly by its end. The truly frightening revelation is that the Jews in the United States are following this very trend, though with far less prevalence of the anti-Semitism, and outside the very religious communities the numbers of practicing and Shabbat Synagogue attending Jews is rapidly dwindling where these communities may soon also disappear. The one thing that might change these trends and force many Jews back to their faith is the rise of anti-Semitism, oddly enough. Should it become systemic and be enacted into law, something which has already begun in Europe with the bans on Kosher slaughter (Shechita) as well as bans on Circumcision, two basic tenets of the Jewish faith, the Jews might, as has occurred numerous times in their history, return to their religion and reestablish close communities living as separate from the mainstreams of society and eventually relocating most likely to Israel. Some might claim that this is exactly what was predicted would occur once the Jewish State was reestablished and that all of this is simply coming to fruition of the ingathering of the Jews to Eretz Yisroel. They would also point to the return by the Ethiopian Jewish community, the Bnei Menashe Jews from India and the Yemeni Jews to Israel in the recent past and still continuing in the present and many expect that more of the lost tribes from the northern kingdom of Israel (also called Samaria) will be found and brought home as well as the rest of the Jews from the southern kingdom of Judah. That is an area where I must depart as such events are beyond the reach or control of mortal humans and as such must simply be hoped for and attempt to assist where and when able but not to the point of believing that our actions can produce such results, that is decided in another dominion.

Beyond the Cusp

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