What Good Will Result from all these Investigations?

The one thing we can all agree is that we sure have sufficient scandals, deceptions, and lies coming from various agencies in the Administration as well as from Cabinet Secretaries. The list includes Fast and Furious, Benghazi, IRS targeting conservative and pro-Israel organizations, FBI spying on media outlets and reporters, and the combined force of the Justice Department and the FBI charging a Fox reporter with treason in order to subpoena his and his parents’ emails and phone records. The good or bad news, depending on your political leanings, is that these investigations will result in partisan posturing and sniping but nothing more. There might be Impeachment charges but no conviction is possible. The only real positive is that as long as these investigations continue the Congress will be kept sufficiently busy thus having the side effect of preventing their proposing new legislations or doing other damages to our society. The main drawback is the news will be full of self-righteous politicians from both parties giving their slant on the hearings ad-nauseum. Both sides will accuse the other of blowing things out of proportion or obstructing the investigations. One side will claim the other side is exaggerating the seriousness and claim everything is old news and no longer of any real importance while the other side will talk in solemn tones attempting to portray everything in dire terms full of foreboding. Of all the questions and suspicions from all these presumably end of the world ending scandals there is only one I really wish to demand an answer for. That question is with who did the stand-down orders for the numerous units who were ready, and in two cases were boarding aircraft to transit to Benghazi, even while the firefight was still ongoing and our people were still screaming for backup informing whoever was monitoring that they had laser-painted the targets that threatened them. The person or people responsible for leaving our people out to die in Benghazi are even more reprehensible than those who were responsible for arranging for the security of the Consulate and other facilities, especially on the anniversary of 9/11. Both sets of people should be held criminally responsible and face charges and if they are in the military they deserve a General Court Martial.

 

In the meantime, these hearings which have the total attention and taking up the time of the Congress will very possibly allow President Obama to take actions in Syria that have the potential to lead to a wider conflict. The visit by Senator McCain to the Rebels inside Syria as well as in Turkey was very similar to the lead up to the imposition of the No-Fly Zone being imposed over Libya. As we might remember, that No-Fly Zone escalated well beyond simply preventing Gadhafi from using his airpower and included bombing of his assets on the ground starting initially with targeting armor and eventually attacking the bases, especially those around the government headquarters in the Libyan Capital City of Tripoli. There were even reports of troops on the ground in Libya though most reports limited these to being British Special Forces. Taking such steps in Syria against Bashir al-Assad carries with them the potential for serious escalations as a response. There have been warnings from the Russians as well as the Iranians, both who have threatened severe consequences should the United States or NATO interfere in the Civil War ongoing in Syria. Whether Congress would take note of such an intervention being prepared with so much of their attentions focused so completely on the investigations leaves some doubts. Such an oversight could prove to be disastrous should President Obama choose to intervene in Syria. The fact that there are all these investigations being held by the Congress, the President might believe that by joining a European sponsored intervention in Syria where he could again claim to be leading from behind, that such a move would divert the attentions of the press and the people from the scandals. Such a move would be similar to the “Wag the Dog” scenario that many accused President George W. Bush of employing when he invaded Iraq. The major difference is that when President Bush invaded Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein there were no threats from Russia or Iran such as President Obama has been given should he interfere in Syria. Where it is unlikely that Russia would respond using direct military force, they would very likely supply al-Assad with the S-300 antiaircraft missile systems earlier than currently scheduled. The S-300 missile system should not be taken lightly as it is one of the preeminent antiaircraft systems in the world today. Iran, on the other hand, would be very likely to take actual military steps in responding to any United States or European intervention in Syria. Such actions that Iran might take would include options of attacking United States assets remaining in Iraq, the United States fleet in the Persian Gulf, missile attacks on Israel, and terrorist attacks on American, European and Israeli targets worldwide. Any of these responses could easily result in a broader conflict which then might spiral completely out of control and ending who knows where. The Middle East currently resembles the driest tinderbox of recent memory and is just waiting for the right spark which would result in an all-encompassing conflagration. That is a threat which would be best untested.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Who Gets to Pick the Winner in Syria?

As the civil war continues to murder innocents with the latest estimate approaching one-hundred-thousand murdered civilians and over one and a half million refugees fled to neighboring Turkey and Jordan there is a group of nations attempting to influence who wins. The problem is that many of these outsiders are backing different forces which serve to extend the fighting possibly endlessly producing no winners, just increasing casualties in an endless procession. First we need to define the disparate groups and then find who is backing whom. The supposed home team definition would likely have to go the current President for life Bashir al-Assad and the Alawite tribe from which he comes. There are two sets that are considered rebel forces which sometimes cooperate and at other periods work either independently or actually impede each other. One rebel group consists mostly of members from the Muslim Brotherhood while the other consists of forces aligned with Jabhat al-Nusra which is the al-Qaeda terror group. Then there are two other groups which currently support Syrian President Bashir Assad but actually represent the Iranian interests and are likely to continue to engage in the war even after Assad collapses or is killed. These two groups are Hezballah, the terrorist group whose political wing currently leads the ruling coalition in Lebanon, and the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, a group of fighters which make up a second military force roughly equivalent in size, equipment, training and capabilities to the Iranian Armed Forces used mostly to assist in foreign interventions, terrorist training internationally and domestically as required, and any other clandestine operations which may be assigned by the leadership of Iran. So, generally speaking there exist five groups vying to take control over all of Syria.

 

Oddly enough getting the teams all figured out who are operating within Syria is difficult enough, but trying to untangle the external interests and influences is far more complicated especially when dissecting their various motives. Let us first address the most up front, above board and obvious of the external influences. The most obvious is Turkey who is steadily supplying arms to both rebel forces for the most selfish of reasons, assuring their continued preeminence as the only stable rout for oil and gas pipelines. There is a further reason driving Turkey in providing arms for the rebel groups which is that there is no love lost between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syria President Bashir Assad as both view themselves as a leader in some future Muslim Caliphate, Assad as leader of the Arab nations in an Iranian Caliphate and Erdogan as leader of a reborn Ottoman Caliphate. Add to this that as long as there exists some sustained level of violence which would discourage construction of new oil and gas routes through Syria then Turkey, with its already existent pipelines, would remain the uncontested and sole route of pipelines for oil and gas from the Arabian Peninsula and related reserves.

 

Another supplier of arms to one of the rebel forces is Saudi Arabia who is backing the Muslim Brotherhood aligned rebels. The Saudi interest is the opposite of Turkey as the Saudis would very much like to have an additional player supplying pipelines to the Mediterranean Sea and into Europe as competition would result in lower prices for them in transporting their oil and gas. Furthermore, the Saudis are rivals of the Iranians and thus would love to see Bashir Assad removed from ruling Syria thus breaking the Iranian crescent in which Syria is a vital link connecting Iran and Iraq through to Lebanon and the ports of the Mediterranean Sea. The Saudi Arabians are supported by the rest of the members of the GCC, Gulf Cooperation Council; whose members are of far less military capabilities thus the Saudis make all the decisions. The Saudis are also counting on support by the United States but they may run into some surprises in that relationship which we will cover later.

 

Then there are those exterior forces supporting the Syrian military and Syrian President Bashir Assad and at the same time defending the Iranian interests. These two groups are the IRGC and the Hezballah terror group. Should Bashir Assad fall either by fearing being taken by the rebel groups who would likely give him treatment similar to that used to dispatch Libyan Dictator Muammar Gaddafi, a rather unpleasant death, these two groups would simply continue the fight in support of their true masters, the Iranians. To either of these forces the continuance of Bashir Assad as the President of Syria is simply something that makes their presence in the fight more readily explainable. Remove Assad and their real motivations are revealed and Iran would be uncovered as the true force behind Assad remaining in power. Another nation supporting Bashir Assad, even if in a somewhat limited manner, is Russia and its President Vladimir Putin. Russia has thus far limited their support to continuing to fill all past weapons orders they have agreed to with Syria and are preventing any overt support for the rebels such as interventions or establishment of a no-fly zone by the United States or NATO. The most disturbing participation by the Russians is their intent to follow through with the sale and supply of their S-300 Anti-Aircraft Missile Systems which would make any Israeli strikes to prevent chemical weapons or other game-changing weapons from being transferred to the Hezballah forces in Lebanon for use against Israel in the future more hazardous. There is one potential future situation which would prove most intriguing, if President Assad should be killed or otherwise removed from the situation, would Russia continue their support giving the future weapons shipments to the IRGC and Hezballah or would their interest in the situation in Syria be terminated.

 

And then there is the most troubling foreign influence, and that is the United States and President Obama. The obvious interpretation of the United States interests is that they are aligned with Saudi Arabia and supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and against the entirety of other forces. This façade also has another participant, Turkey, who also appears to work with the Saudis while also passing weapons to their intended recipient without question. Some of these weapons are intended for Jabhat al-Nusra as they are supplied from the al-Qaeda forces and influences who were involved in Libya. There have been rumors that the truth behind the catastrophe in Benghazi may have been related to attempts to prevent powerful and game-changing weapons, possibly stinger missiles, from being sent from Libya to undesirable recipients. Even if such a proposition were true, that is one truth that will never see the light of day. As is said, some secrets are secrets for a very good reason and as such must remain nothing more than a rumor, a whisper in the tempest and nothing more.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Give Egypt Credit as Credit is Due and Blame to Where it is Due

The United Nations released a statement expressing great concern over the immense volume of weapons being illegally transferred from Libya into both Syria and Gaza. It is about time that some oversight agency, department, public official, world leader, or international organization finally took notice of a problem which has been thus far addressed by Israel and Egypt virtually alone. The United States, while not making any pronouncements warning of this danger, they did at least request the new Egyptian leadership take steps to intercede and take steps to confiscate these shipments should they cross Egyptian areas of jurisdiction or influence. But on the other side of this problem we actually find the United States and their NATO allies were complicit in this illegal transfers of weapons by providing these weapons to the Libyan rebels in the first place as well as not taking any steps to prevent the distribution of the massive stores of Libyan weapons which had been procured mostly from the Soviet Union by Gaddafi over the years he was in power. The real problems are the agents who are on the receiving end of these weapons transfers. In Gaza the recipients are al Qaeda in Gaza, Islamic Jihad, the Salafists and other terror families and entities. It is not clear whether or not Hamas has been the recipient of these weapons as they seem to be destined to reach terror entities even more extreme than Hamas. In Syria the weapons have been transferred to the terror wings of the rebels forces mostly those fighting under the Syrian Al Nusra Front which was recently confirmed by al Qaeda to be their armed resistance within Syria.

The reasons for concern are the types of weapons being transferred which include such items as portable air defense systems, mines, explosive materials, tons of ammunition and small arms. The United Nations report confirmed that “Libya has over the past two years become a significant and attractive source of weaponry in the region. The lack of an effective security system remains one of the primary obstacles to securing military materiel and controlling the borders.” Some of the arms are finding their way through Turkey while other are being directly sent into Syria. The weapons destined for Gaza are being smuggled through the tunnel systems linking Gaza with the Sinai Peninsula. It has been these particular weapons transfers which Egypt has been most crucial in preventing. Still, some intelligence reports have expressed concerns that some of the more sophisticated weapons systems as well as some larger weapons systems have made it into Gaza despite the Egyptian efforts to prevent such deliveries.

The reality is that these weapons will be distributed by numerous terror entities to their fellow terrorist entities throughout the world which will greatly increase the potential for diverse types of attacks. The antiaircraft systems could pose a critical problem for civilian air traffic once such systems are smuggled and distributed to terror cells throughout the world. This problem will only increase should Syrian President Bashir Assad fall with the Al Nusra Front of the Syrian rebel forces prove the dominant influence in whatever governance forms. Such an outcome would also provide al Qaeda with a safe country in which to set up training camps and store weapons and other materials for future use in executing ever more serious mass terror attacks. The real question has to be asked of why was this allowed to come to pass and who dropped the ball on securing the Libyan weapons stores. Since NATO, for the most part, was the main party supporting the various rebel groups, they must be held responsible for not taking the necessary steps to secure these weapons stores. This would have probably required a far more active participation of the United States as the only country with sufficient capabilities to guarantee a comprehensive interdiction. Unfortunately this would require the United States to lead from the front and not from behind.

It was not mentioned in the report but it also likely that many of these weapons are drifting south into Mali and Nigeria to the Islamic revolutionaries who are attempting to transform these two nations into Islamic states. The real and full extent of the damages caused by the international distribution of these extremely dangerous weapons will never be fully disclosed. The reason that such information will remain undisclosed is that those who should have taken responsibility for securing these weapons will work to assure that such information is squelched. There may have been an attempt to control these weapons and possibly even turn off the spigot but that effort turned out very poorly. That is another reason that very little if any information will ever see the light of day about the scope and range of weapons which are now being distributed to terror outfits possibly throughout the world. This may have been exactly the mission which sent the United States Ambassador to Libya Chris Stevens to Benghazi where he was murdered along with four other Americans on September 11, 2012. That alone would make it even less likely that the full story will ever be divulged, at least not in our lifetimes.

Beyond the Cusp