I feel so much safer knowing the Lady Aston with a noble effort from the European Union have finessed Iranian lead nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili into yet another round of urgent negotiations within the framework of the P5+1 setting. This means that the Iranians will once again sit down and refuse everything proposed by the representatives of the United States, Britain, France and Germany while the representatives for Russia and China sit watching the Western negotiators crash and burn. After the next round of negotiations finally break-off without even the slightest evidence of accomplishment, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or the Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili will once again say that the Western powers are simply dragging their feet by refusing to recognize, accept and respect the Iranians right to research all levels of nuclear technology. So, why have the European Union nations’ governments placed so much importance towards arranging yet round of hopeless negotiations with Iran? There are so many potential reasons, all just as revolting as the negotiations will prove to be.
The easiest reason one could attach to this insincere courting of the Iranians to yet another session, which is guaranteed to be a waste of time and nothing more, is a state of severe panic that somebody somewhere might decide to take actions before diplomacy has been completely exhausted, which it only will after Iran is nuclear capable. It could be the overriding aversion of the Europeans for any actions which might require force and an actual commitment to actually declaring that Iran has evil intents. To make such a judgment of the Iranians nuclear weapons program and the deceit spun to keep it from view would require a moral backbone and sufficient fiber to stand for something. This is unfortunately beyond the ability of the Europeans who have forsworn principles and the efforts enforcing such necessitate. The European governments, whether individually or collectively, as the European Union, when faced with a situation that demands fortitude, they simply cower and coil deeply into the fetal position quivering promising to come out only if more talking can be arranged. What is interesting about this bout of pursuing negotiations until the problem resolves itself is that the actions the European Union are attempting to avoid will not require them to mobilize a single person.
Adding to the great urgency to do as little as possible beyond sanctions and posturing is President Obama and his Administration. Each time any country posed the possibility that perhaps actual plans should me formed and possibly implemented, in simple language, force be applied, as a possible solution to the Iranian uranium enrichment and related nuclear research efforts, President Obama has dispatched some high ranking Administration official to visit the upstart nation and talk them back off from their perch. We would not wish for any country to spoil a good crisis before it can be utilized to its fullest potential, though what could be gained by allowing Iran to possess nuclear weapons capability is beyond me. Either way, the United States appears to be satisfied that there is no reason to push the pace and that patience and waiting for the sanctions and other diplomacy to work their wonders is the plan for the foreseeable future. Defense Secretary Panetta relayed this message to Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israelis during his recent visit to Israel when he informed them that the United States has taken the position that negotiations and sanctions will work should they be given sufficient time, at the least eighteen months. So, this is the state of the great plan that the P5+1 will be implementing that will prevent the Iranians from succeeding in their quest to achieve nuclear weapons capability.
From the Iranian side, there has been a single development which will soon be revealed. In the upcoming meeting of the one-hundred-eighteen member Unaligned Nations in Iran, the Iranians are planning to propose and expect to pass a motion declaring the right of developing countries to enrich uranium and develop nuclear power, regardless of limits set out in the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The objective of this ploy is blatantly obvious; the Iranians are looking for legitimization for their nuclear program with which to further back their claims that the Western powers must recognize the Iranian innate right to develop anything nuclear, including nuclear weapons, of course. The passage of this measure has already been guaranteed by the numbers of nations who have already stated their intent to vote in its favor. So, if Iran has been stubbornly insistent of possessing the right of full scale nuclear development in the face of all treaties which were designed to limit such ventures, how confidently intolerable will they be with their own treaty with sufficient backing to easily be passed in the United Nations General Assembly, should they decide such a step is warranted. Their demands that the West stop dragging their feet and respect the Iranian right to nuclear development will become even more shrill and unbearable, not to mention they will take such an agreement as a license to ignore any and all opposition, as if they were not already doing so.
So, what exactly was the driving force behind Lady Ashton, the European Union Foreign Minister, and her frantic charge to reinitiate another round of utterly useless talking, each side talking to the other side’s hands? What was the United States reason for dispatching high level Administration figures to any countries which gave even the slightest indication of addressing the Iranian nuclear program problem with anything stronger than a slow head shake and a deep rumbling moan? And who were the countries, or country, to which these envoys were dispatched to prevent a potential Armageddon which most assuredly would erupt if the sanctions and diplomacy had not been allowed to fully run their course? The answer is simple, Israel. Yes, once again the one country out of step with the Europeans, Americans, Russians, Chinese, Iranians, Germans, and the European Union as well as very likely the United Nations and the Members of the Unaligned Nations was Israel. It was a simple mention by any of a number of Israeli politicians, military personnel or retired government, intelligence and military ranking personnel of the Iranian nuclear program and that Israel might have some serious and deep concerns and the European Union would dispatch the Lady Catherine Ashton to plead with Saeed Jalili to persuade the Iranian hierarchy to permit one more session where the P5+1 would evoke an endless string of rejection from the Iranians simply by speaking. Concurrently, the Administration of United States President Obama would draw straws to see who would be dispatched to Israel to demand they see the truth and rationality of the continuing of the endless futility of the current actions and immediately rescind all plans for any brazen actions they had been considering and return to the fold of civilized nations who place their faith in diplomacy even with the most dangerous of foes.
That leads to the big question to which we would all like to know the answer, how long will the Israelis choose to stand down before they make that fateful choice and ignore the demands of the all-so-civil world and do what they feel is necessary to protect their people and nation? That leads to the next and equally vexing question, once Israel commits to taking, as President Obama defines it, kinetic action against the Iranian nuclear sites, what will these same all-so-civilized nations do once it has been decided for them that the time for action is right now? And finally, what will be the reaction of the people; both in Europe and the United States, to an Israeli strike and what will the people demand from their governments, and will their governments listen to the people or simply continue to serve their gods of timidity? Stay tuned as these and all your questions are likely to be answered in the not too distant future, very likely weeks before the elections in the United States.
Beyond the Cusp