Tzipi Livni, Israeli Justice Minister, claims as part of a recent statement that “there is a price that whoever really wants peace must pay.” What is behind Ms. Livni’s claims are those who hold to a particular demographic statistical prediction which claims that should Israel retain all of Judea, Samaria and the rest of the disputed territories then within the ensuing decade or two the numbers of Muslim Arabs will outnumber the numbers of Jews and result in the end of Israel as the Jewish State. We could call this the demographic explosion of the Jewishness of Israel. There are many who disagree with Ms. Livni’s position and have also quoted demographic statistics that claim exactly the opposite and these demographers lean heavily on the comparative increasing reproductive rates of Israeli Jews compared to declining rates among the Muslim population. But is there something that both sides have not stressed sufficiently which actually makes the entire argument mute? Well, we believe so and will present it here.
Currently the numbers of Jews as citizens of Israel are a little more than six-million and are growing at a respectable rate and a rate well above replacement level and the rates of the rest of the nation’s native populations in the Western world. When dealing with the rates of growth of the Jewish population of Israel are not going to be as dependent on reproductive rates as it will be affected by Diaspora Jews making Aliyah. The next group of nations from which the next wave of Diaspora Jews returning to Israel will come from Europe with France sending the majority of these Jewish immigrants home into Israel. The current Jewish population in the countries in the European Union number slightly over one-million with almost half of these residing currently in France. As has been mentioned heavily in recent news coverage the French Jews along with the Jews in Sweden are both emigrating at a significant rate, almost as if panic was ever-present threatening their feeling of security due to the striking rise in anti-Semitism. The rest of Europe will not belong behind with the rise of anti-Semitism being very evident across Europe. As far as the numbers of Jews who will leave Europe and head to Israel will be significant, there will be a secondary significant number who will instead move to the United States. Add these European Jews to the United States Jewish population and that would push the number to a little over six-million souls. Why this is significant is that there is the beginning of similar rising of anti-Semitism in the United States which is similar to the start of the trends in Europe, just trailing Europe by less than a decade. When it finally becomes evident and beyond the point of credible disbelief that the society has turned in the United States, the Jews there will have only one place on the Earth which will appear welcoming, Israel. This will result in the cast majority of the Jews who leave on their own volition landing in Israel. Such an influx will result in almost doubling the number of Jews in Israel. This will make a definitive difference in the population figures not only in the near term but also into the future.
But there is another problem with Minister Livni’s insistence that Israel must sacrifice and surrender lands in order to form a Palestinian state. Her main point is that Israel must do whatever it takes in order to satisfy the Palestinian Authority leadership such that they will sign onto a treaty that ends their claims and brings peace and supposedly security while also removing the demographic threat. The miscalculation is that in order to meet the conditions which Mahmoud Abbas, the person Minister Livni claims is our partner for peace, Israel would need to agree to the Right of Return of the Palestinian refugees. Abbas does not allow for Israel receiving a token number to represent the Right of Return, he insists on a total and complete Right of Return for five million Arab refugees. This would inundate Israel with Muslims which would bury the Jewish majority under the influx. What makes surrendering to the demands of Mahmoud Abbas and company is that they have promised that even a complete Israeli surrender the Palestinians will continue their resistance to the occupation of all of Palestine until the occupiers have been completely driven from their lands. The surrender would not buy peace, would not buy security but would buy giving the Palestinians the highlands overlooking the heart of Israel from which to launch rockets on Tel Aviv and the vast majority of Israeli infrastructure, transportation assets, businesses, manufacturing, power generation and population. And even if Minister Livni were to manage to get Mahmoud Abbas to accept a token acceptance only one million refugees returning into Israel, there are still problems any peace would result in producing.
So, if Livni, Netanyahu, Abbas and Erekat all signed the next treaty on the White House East Lawn with a gloating Secretary Kerry and President Obama beaming and strutting proudly before the cameras taking credit for solving the insolvable, would that really matter? Even if such a peace excluded any Right of Return into Israel for the Palestinian refugees and their descendants and relegated their return to the newly formed nation of Palestine consisting of Judea, Samaria and Gaza with the Old City and Temple Mount of Jerusalem becoming an international city under the auspices of the United Nations, that would still be the beginning of the end. Within months of such a singing, the Palestinians would bring the refugees into the new West Bank nation of Palestine in order to assure their state posed a proper and populated threat to the continued existence of Israel. After the entire populations of Palestinians were safely residing in Palestine, then the third intifada would begin in earnest. Rockets would rain down on central Israel with destructive results. These rockets would not be aimed generally at an unpopulated area as were the rockets fired by Hamas out of Gaza. These rockets would be fired at the most densely populated areas which also contain the majority of all commerce and power distribution for all of Israel. With the entire population of refugees incorporated into the West Bank, Israel would no longer have any option to retake the West Bank to end the assault as doing so would result in the Palestinian Arabs simply changing to a new tactic where they would simply protest that they must be granted Israeli citizenship instead of demanding their own state. That would produce the same results as allowing for the Right of Return of the Palestinian refugees. Once the Palestinians have found a means by which the entirety of the refugees have been allowed to return to the lands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, whether it is into Israel within the Green Line or simply into the newly established Palestinian state, then the demographic threat stands heavy over the continuation of Israel as the Jewish state. It is obvious the refugees cannot be permitted within Israeli borders but even if they return to a Palestinian state they become a standing threat making retaking the Palestinian areas into a death sentence therefore allowing for the continuous hammering of central Israel from the Judean Heights including the use of antiaircraft munitions to make Ben Gurion Airport unusable for the future. Does anybody truly believe that the world of nations would ever care about the Palestinians constantly pounding Israel day in and day out as doing so would be to admit to their errors of judgment in forcing Israel into such an untenable situation. But then there are those nations among the family of nations who would gloat that this had befallen Israel and be proud of their accomplishment in possibly destroying the Jewish state by other means. The choices appear dire but the best last hope to have Israel continue to be the Jewish state is to take the one state solution and grant the Palestinians citizenship starting after there have been six months or one year without a terrorist attack with a stipulation that anybody caught committing a terrorist crime will lose their citizenship and be deported. Take that step and pray, prayer will be required and necessary regardless of the path chosen, but the one state solution may be the least worst path all things considered.
Beyond the Cusp