Beyond the Cusp

April 14, 2020

Israeli Political Stalemate Strikes Again

 

 

When nothing has changed between now and whenever President Rivlin finally surrenders to reality, these are our observations and thoughts. Should everything remain as it appears, Israel will be going to a fourth set of elections. It appears that yet another election will likely leave things the same without anyone able to form a coalition numbering sixty-one or more Knesset Ministers. These past three elections fit neatly into the Einsteinian definition for insanity, performing the same tasks expecting different results.

 

We here at BTC are going to go out on a limb and predict a winning side; but first, our reasoning behind the change we see coming. Former Blue-White leader, Benny Gantz, performed the political pirouette going back on any number of his former promises. There is one main U-turn which will damage him and lose him followers. This U-turn came when General Gantz (ret) attempted to form a government by allying with the Arab List. Even with this attempted new alliance, Gantz ended up unable to reach the magic sixty-one majority. This attempt also blew apart the Blue-White alliance leaving the former alliance torn asunder back into the component parties. This breakup comes at the same time as Labor and Meretz ended their alliance as well. Meanwhile, the parties making up the right-leaning alliance are well as in tact for as long as Bibi Netanyahu honors the promises made to them and not take away their ministries so as to bribe left-leaning parties to join the coalition. Breaking these promises would be the quickest means for destroying the right-leaning alliance.

 

We at BTC are actually looking forward to a new round of elections. These elections, we believe, will be held sometime in either August or September. The reason for holding the new elections that late is for any number of reasons including an end to the COVID-19 pandemic allowing people to feel safer being in groups and still allow for some time for campaigning. Granted, the vast majority of Israelis are set in their voting choices. So, what changes have we noted, despite the difficulties caused by the pandemic? The most obvious has been the breaking apart of the main left-leaning party, Blue-White, and another leftist alliance where one of the members is unlikely to break threshold. Of course, there is always the chance for any slip to come along and change everything.

 

Bronze Star of David

 

Well, guess the time has come to predict the results of any fourth Israeli elections. Top of the list will be Bibi Netanyahu yet again with sixty-two to as many a sixty-five mandates. The Arab List will remain between fourteen and seventeen mandates leaving less than a mere fifty mandates, falling completely from contention. Hopefully, Bibi can get past his paranoia suspecting that others are trying to replace the leadership of Likud into the future. While having Netanyahu returning one more time as Prime Minister may not be the most desirable, one last tour to collect more cigars and champagne and getting even deeper in trouble with the media; after Gantz’s recent self-destruction, there really is no other choice.

 

Taking the nearly identical results from the previous elections, the fourth elections will be predicted to simply be yet another repeat, yet we believe it could easily be the charm. What we advise Bibi Netanyahu, or any other right-leaning leader, to do is better Israel politically and place her beyond physical threat. The first effort should lead to completely annex all lands west of the Jordan River while providing any Palestinians desiring to leave with aid to assist their relocation. As for the remainder of time to the next elections, it would serve Likud and the right-leaning political wing to replace Bibi at the helm and promote a new leadership. Meanwhile, Israeli politics will remain one of the most absurd and delusional found on this Earth.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 10, 2020

Western Society Corrupted and Erroneous Beliefs

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 2:04 AM

Western society has been historically one of, if not the most violent of all societal groups. One merely needs to scan European and Western history to reveal that theirs was one of the most violent and aggressive in all of history. It was the constant contention which would eventually result in two World Wars with the latter resulting in the use of two nuclear bombs destroying two Japanese cities before coming to a close.

 

Western thought attempted to change to try and rule out further great conflicts. The first step was to institute the United Nations (UN), initially limiting membership to those nations from the two World Wars and other democratic based nations. The mission of the UN was to, as Winston Churchill might have posited, replace war war with jaw jaw. The UN was to replace bullets with rapid fire debates, artillery with bombastic demands, bombs with dropped explosive ideas, swords with deeply cutting insults and accusations and thus bring the wars before the UN where words replaced weapons. Unfortunately, the western powers agreed to let any nation into the UN sometime in the 1950’s. This was the result of Soviet Russian and Chinese pressure added by leftist internationalism. That has led to the mess that the UN has become. All we can add is for one to look around the world and note how war and governmental violence is infecting the largest regions and nations of the world.

 

Still, Western society is convinced that the basic underlying truth is that peace is the basis of all human efforts going into the future. Western thought has disabused themselves of the necessity for war and, along with this, a new wide-sweeping basis which colors their every thought, the concept that mankind has reached a level of sophistication beyond resorting to violence to solve the differences between nations. Western society has become tired of the destruction resulting from back-to-back World Wars and retreated to what they perceiver as the safety of limited to total pacification. Western leaders and peoples, after numerous attempts to conquer and control the entirety of Earth, have come to the realization that world conquest is next to impossible and ruling the world is completely out of the question. Western society and leadership view the world through these rose-colored-glasses never realizing that there are those who still believe in world conquest and their responsibility to bring the entire world under their religious, political, social order and control. Many such nations, or at least their leadership as a rule, refuse to believe that the United States had used nuclear weapons against Japan while further claiming that should they acquire such weapons, they would be their first choice against any enemy.

 

Refusing to recognize that these peoples and their leadership honestly believe it is their national or religious imperative to bring the rest of the world under their rule, because they simply believe they have the answers to all of life’s questions. Both the Western World and those still seeking world domination are currently locked with one side fighting an asymmetrical war while the other is attempting to mollify the demands of the other in the belief that such assistance will result in their forgoing their hopes of conquest. In reality, both sets of beliefs are erroneous and leading towards an unlimited conflict where one side will resort to nuclear and EMP attacks with great abandon refusing to accept any responsibility for the results. They will claim all was under the control of an extraterrestrial entity, their god, whose commands were given them many tens of centuries past. Many of these nations, who all seek world dominance, have little if any reservations about the use of terrorism against civilian and soft targets, using nuclear weapons of all types as readily available weapons for use in gaining any advantage. The Western World, on the other hand, has seen the destruction wreaked by such weapons and sworn to forgo their use except as a final attempt to change the reality in a war they know they are losing. This difference of tactics, specifically the use of nuclear weapons, could spell the difference and perhaps the final result. The real and terrible potential result of such a conflict would be the complete destruction of all that mankind has thus far accomplished. How can such a conflagration be avoided is probably the greatest challenge facing the Western World towards which it is attempting appeasement and retreat which is simply emboldening those who believe that they are chosen to defeat all enemies, perceived and real, and force the world to do their bidding while always showing these conquerors honor and bowing to the superiority of their destined rulers.

 

Human nature, in its natural state, will initially set out an area which they claim as belonging to them. In modern society, this would be our residence where we expect to have relative, if not complete safety. This concept of a safe home now has been transferred to the concept that their nation state will keep them and their homes safe. Western society has formed their view of the world and all societies as a whole being peaceful and content having no designs for violence against neighbor. This is partly the reason behind the UN, lead by the United States, reacting to Saddam Hussein declaring war against and conquering his neighbor Kuwait, and were unprepared to prevent the aggressions. Instead they spent two years to wrest Kuwait from Saddam Hussein’s grasp.

 

This slow response against states of violence has been muted or late to every conflict of the past century. Instead of concrete actions to prevent such violence, Western society still prefers to mollify and appease such aggressors hoping to quench their thirst to expand their rule, thus avoiding the need for conflict. This tried and fruitless type of effort has never, in almost all of history, prevented the eventual necessity for violence to end violence, thus has not ended the ability of any nation from using violence against a neighbor. Perhaps this would be a great time to point out that such a response to threats of violence are rare as well as few and far between.

 

The two best known attempts at mollifying an aggressor at the cost of their victims are the surrender by British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, assisted by French Prime Minister Édouard Daladier, surrendering of Czechoslovakia to Hitler hoping to mollify the Nazi hunger to conquer Europe and then the rest of the world. Another prime example has been on display in the halls of the UN, specifically the General Assembly, with the near, if not, constant condemnation of Israel demanding that Israel surrender the lands previously promised by the world since the formalization of the San Remo Conference. The appeasement of Hitler made World War II inevitable as surrendering principle and compromising the integrity of a nation’s borders has never led to peace, always to war.

 

The results of Western philosophy believing that humankind has evolved beyond the use of violence and that all problems between nations will be resolved peaceably through negotiations with give and take, can only lead to a willful blindness to the aggression of others. Our observations are the nations where violence appears constant will never be mollified and must be confronted with signs of great strength and with unwavering commitment to the preservation of borders and the strengthening of peace. To do any less would be surrender to those still willing to resolve problems and differences by first resorting to war and other violence. What can only appear as Western weakness and inability to commit beyond the first mass casualty report and then the people, especially in the United States and across Europe, will demand complete surrender of the conflicted region to the aggressor as no effort is worth a single casualty, a single life. This weakness and inability to stomach a fight by Western society has been noted by their enemies and they have been emboldened.

 

Currently, these forces have been quieted and calmed as the leaders of the United States under President Donald Trump and Britain under Boris Johnson are unpredictable and more likely to respond to force with force. Unfortunately, peace and refusal to resort to violence even in self-defense against an active aggressor results simply in being conquered and surrendering to all demands and impositions placed upon the people who were undefended by their own government. That is the result of pacifism in the face of a determined aggressor. No amount of military potential and armaments can deter an aggressor if they are left under wraps and never used as violence is not the answer. Well, unfortunately, such a viewpoint will not last long on this planet as long as those willing to impose violence in order to reach their own designs on expanded territories and greater power are allowed to do as they please as it would be risky to oppose such acts without it leading to our taking casualties, deaths even. Apparently, Western society is not willing to lose a single soldier in the opposition of an aggressor as such acts are inconceivable in Western thought and Western philosophy. The West has sacrificed the concept of sacrifice in favor of the fulfillment of our own selfish desires. Immediate self-satisfaction takes precedent over all else including the abandonment of procreation in favor of living in the moment and an unwillingness to make even the most minimal sacrifice as such a concept is beyond their capability for understanding.

 

This lack of commitment by Western societies to the threats roiling throughout the Middle East of which one, Iran and the Mullah ruling religious class, has already declared often and regularly their intention to use nuclear weapons in order to defeat and destroy Israel and the United States, not necessarily in that order. The current means to deal with this threat, while it can be handled with minimal pain, would save the world yet another world consuming conflict. Unfortunately, the vast majority of people appear to be clueless and unable to envision the immediately obvious, let alone longer-range ramifications, situations and the threats existing within. This limiting blindness, possible tunnel vision, which results from the overriding drive for self-gratification disregards consequences, ramifications or, even more important, threats from outside their immediate region. In the meantime, politicians attempt to mollify those who would enslave the world, given half the chance simply to be reelected, by fulfilling the expectations for comfort and more toys by the people and ignoring those threats being ignored by the people. Simply look to history and find any time when all humankind lived in joy, contentment and peace. Ever since we ceased being small family-centric tribal hunter-gatherer societies residing sufficiently separate there have been wars. The first wars were raids by one tribe on a neighboring tribe and these conflicts will likely end with World War III and a return to human beings taking up hunter-gatherer society.

 

One might even wonder if perhaps we human beings have not been here before and decided advanced society must never use violence leading to an end to technological society and the eventual excessive loss of life from the ensuing World War III and the famine and desolation which results. Ignoring those claiming they deserve and seek world conquest will inevitably result in World War III, despite all efforts to avoid conflict. Such will be the future leading to the end of Western society, the society which has itself all but destroyed and dismantled Judeo-Christian ethics, morality and Biblical codes for life. As all actions of physical, mental, political or any other form, result in a reactive event; our actions and inactions will result in reactions or actions respectively from any adversaries. Refusal to resist and actually commit to preventing further conflict will result in further and excess violence as a result. Stand against such threats and show complete resolve and follow-through will bring the peaceful result as none will want to oppose a determined foe.

 

Europe has followed the “me first, last and only” philosophy leading to depopulation resulting in a devastating drop in births with their falling far below replacement level and their societal fabrics reaching the tearing-point, and that ripping of the West may not be that far in our future. The United States is not that far behind Europe in this self-serving satisfaction driven society. Western society must awaken and realize that their philosophy and ethics are worth preserving even if that means the use or threat to use violence. If only the Western World would show a greater resolve to preserve all the science, religion, ethics and codes restricting rulers and their powers. Ours is a unique societal plan, where people are empowered and government presumed to be the passive protector. Such noble thoughts need defending or they will perish. Freedom and liberty lost by one generation, and that is all it usually takes is one generation, has never in history had these precious rights been regained by their society. The end of the free society we currently enjoy can be predicted using the Tytler Cycle (see image below). The real question is where on this Tytler Cycle is American society? Our estimation is that American society has sunk into “Complacency” or “Apathy” depending on the region or neighborhood. We pray we have yet to fully reach the region of the circle where “Dependence” is their fate.

 

Tytler Cycle of Power in Governance

Tytler Cycle of Power in Governance

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 16, 2019

British Choose Conservative Party While People Riot in Iran

 

The British elections led to a victory and mandate to complete BREXIT with Boris Johnson as their Prime Minister. But there was a secondary message coming from these elections, namely that the British renounced the hateful racism and anti-Semitism which had become part of the messages coming from the Labour Party in general and from Jeremy Corbyn in particular. The British elections were just the next step coming from Europeans demanding their nations return to their independence and away from the European Union (EU) and centralized rule from Brussels. We have to add that most of the distrust of the centralized power without any input, that the EU intends to spread over all of Europe, has come from former Soviet nations which perhaps remember their former results from centralized power ruling from Moscow.

 

Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson

 

These results will be used by some in the United States to boost their arguments about President Trump, both pro and con. These sorts of arguments are best just left behind as one walks away, as arguing with such people from either side, using the British elections as a predictor for the upcoming 2020 elections in the United States is simply a waste of one’s time. Yet, the results of the British elections will not be affecting much on the world’s stage as the central focus of the world revolves around two nations, the obvious is Iran followed by the favorite nation for United Nations General Assembly to condemn, Israel. Of these two, Iran is the larger problem which the world needs to find something to remove the current Judeophobia, prevent Iranian hegemony of the Middle East and, in a perfect world, return control over Iran to the Iranian people. These problems are far more important keeping a careful watch over Iran and the effects of her involvement in the Syrian strife and violence as well as her influences in places such as Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and beyond. Currently, the ball is on the Iranian side of the court leaving more room for speculation backed only by feelings. So, what do we expect in the coming future?

 

News about the internal struggle spreading throughout Iran has been sketchy at best and totally suppressed about the remainder. Meanwhile, the people of Iran are fighting for new governance which is more representative of the Iranian people. There is a large and growing undercurrent eroding at the power wielded by the Mullahs currently ruling in Iran through use of force. The situation in Iran is exactly as one might presume, with fixed elections and other shams giving a pretense of democratic elections. This is what has led to the current round of rioting and protests against the current rulers. News about the spreading protests has been relatively disorganized at best and imposed silence at its worst. This leads to much news being pure speculation mixed with hope for the Iranian people.

 

Our biggest fears are that this atmosphere of rejection targeting the ruling Mullahs could lead to an irresponsible set of actions by the Mullahs. The most feared scenario includes a nuclear attack on the American Fifth Fleet of the United States Navy assigned to patrol the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and parts of the Indian Ocean as well as the nations bordering these waters. Their mandate includes Iran. Often another scenario is mentioned where Iran starts their offensive in earnest against Saudi Arabia while simultaneously launching a massive attack upon Israel used to distract the world’s attention. Such an attack would be played in Iran as their leadership taking care to protect the people from these outside menacing forces. We do not foresee Iran using force against Israel beyond the consistent launching rockets by the IRGC in Syria as any escalation could trigger a larger Israeli response. Iranian leaders are aware that Israeli leadership would be required to respond to missiles detected coming from Iran well before they would strike their targets and possibly crippling Israeli capabilities. Israeli leadership would need to decide how severe any Iranian attack might be as well as which warheads were launched, specifically as to whether any WMD’s were included in such an attack. Such weapons include chemical and bio weapons as well as nuclear warheads. Any such attack from Iran would be hopefully largely, if not totally, intercepted by the layered protective spheres of the Israeli anti-ballistic missile defenses.

 

Talking about any Iranian strike, our belief is that Iran has absolutely little if any desire to exchange ballistic missiles with Israel as they are aware that such an exchange would result in the destruction of much of Iran with potentially minimal destruction in Israel as Iranian missiles were intercepted by Israeli defensive systems. Should Iran strike anyone, the most likely target would be the American naval ships off her coasts. Iran has been observing how President Trump has pulled American forces from much, if not all, of the Middle East battlegrounds. This has probably led to their concluding that President Trump would avoid any direct conflict initiated by Iran. They likely feel that such an attack could lead to concessions from the United States in order to avoid further American casualties. Such presumptions are the perfect setting for an ever-escalating exchange between Iran and the United States where Iran would be the loser. The United States would not consider herself as the victor as the resulting protests against the use of force and against Trump would prove to be a divisive and destructive force in the country.

 

This leads to our final vision of the future and the results of the people rioting across Iran demanding new governance and an end to the rule by the Mullahs. We fear that the results from these protests will be the deaths of thousands of Iranians as the Mullahs will refuse to go down without a monumental fight. In the end, the rulers of Iran will unleash the IRGC and the Basenji Militias upon the protesters. It will result in a near exact copy of the 2009 protests except with far higher casualty count for those protesting. Should the pro-democracy Persians, the actual and correct name for most of the Iranian people, start taking to the streets in vast numbers, their success or failure will be dependent upon what response and potential arming the Iranians receive from the United States. The knife edge upon which the world currently sits has Iran and the United States in direct opposition to one another. Iran could initiate problems in any number of means. Iran could stop all the oil tankers from entering or leaving through the Strait of Hormuz or block the Bab el Mandeb (see map below) blocking the only exit and entrance to the Suez Canal from the south.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

The Bab el Mandeb blockade would also negate the sole Israeli port in the south, Eilat, from access to the Indian Ocean and beyond. Preventing access to shipping lanes is considered an act of war. Well, that is, except if the nation in question is Israel. That aside, the most likely conflict will break out between the United States and Iran and not Iran and Israel. Should the conflict turn to being between Iran and Israel, the world (aka General Assembly) will immediately blame Israel with minimum opposition. This is the one item you can bet and rest assured of a win. The world’s ‘blame Israel’ reaction is the one constant in this rattled and violent world. Directing hatred towards Israel is the latest Judeophobia spreading around the world. We can only pray that the world awakens and removes their blinders and finally accepts that Israel has been reborn as predicted in Torah and related commentaries and this time, we are returning home and have little if any desire to leave. Hopefully, the world comes to grips with their unsupportable Judeophobia before it leads to another great war which will result in much of the world being destroyed and a death toll beyond any other war.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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