Beyond the Cusp

February 22, 2018

Iranian Nuclear War with Israel or the World

 

After reading Professor Louis René Beres’s article “Looking Ahead: Longer Term Prospects for an Israel-Iran Nuclear War” we found some additional aspects which were either dismissed or ignored. We decided that perhaps we could add some information by looking more closely at the Iranian perspectives and what these should mean to Israeli planners. The one item with which we took the most critical concern was his statement, “In essence, there are no conceivable experts on fighting a nuclear war, not in Washington, not in Pyongyang, not in Jerusalem, not in Tehran.” He also postulated that, “Insofar as a nuclear war has never been fought, what will be needed is more broadly intellectual guidance than Israel should ever reasonably expect from even its most senior and accomplished military officers.” The reality is that senior officers often have educations equal to that of many professors and their minds are just as keen and capable of any academic. We will grant that officers exist who are nowhere near the expert of some academics, but mostly those are junior officers and by the time an officer makes Full Bird Colonel they have at the least a Bachelor’s degree and probably a Master’s degree and many a General will have a Doctorate in at least one field from Military History to Mathematics, Physics and possibly Nuclear Physics. They will all have taken courses in Military Tactics, as even Noncommissioned officers are required to take such courses. They will have been required to take a number of command courses and often have attended some very rigorous military training courses which is how they get those impressive patches such as Ranger, Airborne and even Special Forces or Seals in the United States. So, to be honest, there are likely very few professors or other experts who would be better trained, educated and able to make the decisions and make plans to handle any threat including, or even especially, a nuclear standoff or even an actual nuclear exchange.

 

Professor Beres also said that there had never been a nuclear war, but that is technically not entirely valid as the War with Japan at the end of World War II was ended by the use of nuclear weapons which kind of means that the War with Japan did turn into the first, and thus far, only nuclear war. That was a completely one sided nuclear exchange as Japan had no nuclear weapons with which to respond which is what made the American use on Hiroshima and Nagasaki so effective. Fortunately, the Japanese did not know that the United States had used every nuclear weapon at their disposal and did not posses a third weapon. Had Japan tested the resolve of President Truman, the American’s next move was to build fifty additional nuclear weapons in the ensuing year and strike Japan with most of them in simultaneous strikes including Tokyo and a number of nuclear weapons into Mount Fuji in the hopes of causing a massive eruption. This was not much of a lesson for a nuclear standoff between two nuclear-armed adversaries. Such a standoff has limited lessons to teach us with only two which come to mind. The minor one has been the battle of the boasting idiots between President Trump and Kim Jong-un. Deciding which one is the larger idiot would be a difficult call but we would have to side with Kim Jong-un if he honestly believes he is a man-god and that his nation is as happy and well off as any other on the face of the planet. All he would need do is look southward to the Winter Olympics in South Korea to see that his nation is in dire shape and has some extreme problems. But then he knows this and this was what caused him to test President Trump and pressure the world with threats trying to force them to treat his temper tantrum by sending his beleaguered nation food and money. The more serious standoff between two nuclear powers was the Cuban Missile Crisis. This pitted the United States and President Kennedy against the USSR and Commissar Khrushchev. This standoff ended peaceably but not before nerves throughout the globe was frayed to the breaking point.

 

So, let us now look at what the future nuclear situation might be between Israel and Iran as well as Iran and the rest of the world. The first thing which can be stated, is, that Israel would not be the first to use nuclear weapons except in response to an attack using weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against Israel. Israel has made this their policy on nuclear weapons and their use such that they would only be used in response to a WMD attack. Now, such a nuclear response might be used on Iran if there were a massive WMD attack emanating from Syria or Hezballah which could be traced as being ordered by Iran. Should Iran launch a nuclear or other WMD attack on Israel then an Israeli nuclear response should be expected against Iran and for Israel to go on alert in case of an attack across the northern border from Hezballah or Syria. This covers every use of her nuclear weapons by Israel except for one rumored plan known as the Samson Option, used as the basis of “The Samson Option: Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal and American Foreign Policy,” a 1991 book by Seymour Hersh. The theory put forth presumably from an Israeli intelligence source who told of plans that should Israel be facing being overrun and destroyed by invading armies, then she would respond by launching her missiles at the main population centers of numerous Arab and Muslim nations which was hoped to prevent any attacks by Arab armies. The last organized assault on Israel by national military forces was the Yom Kippur War of October 1973, which was before Israel was assumed to have a nuclear arsenal. Since then the Arab world has not launched an assault on Israel using conventional forces and only through terror forces. There may be a question whether Hezballah, with there over one-hundred-thousand rockets and missiles could be considered to be a national type military force equating any attack by Hezballah into an attack by Lebanon and possibly their masters in Tehran thus including Iran? This is a conundrum for the heads of state and the military in Israel and we are not about to second-guess them and will wait for any announced policy. There has been some mention that should Hezballah attack Israel that Israel now considers Hezballah as being the governance of Lebanon and thus any attack by Hezballah would, at the least, be considered an attack by Lebanon.

 

This leaves Iran and what their leadership might be thinking about nuclear confrontations. It was reported by CNN on September 11, 2015, that the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said during a speech that week in Tehran, state-run media report, which translated as, “I’d say (to Israel) that they will not see (the end) of these 25 years.” That, in and of itself, is ominous enough to rattle nerves or it could be written off to bluster meant to impress the Iranian people. One thing people need to understand about the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is that his life revolves around the Quran and it is the Quran which provides him with his authority, gives him authority to make Iranian foreign policy decisions, and allows him great latitude concerning internal decision making within Iran. The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is all but unopposable when it comes to decision making and his word is as good as law. If the Supreme Leader were to order a nuclear attack on Israel, the missiles would be launched within minutes with almost nobody even thinking of questioning these orders. What is unknown is who, other than the Supreme Leader, is able to order such an attack. This is not as well known and there are suspicions that there are some military high level officers who might also be permitted to give such orders including the leader of the IRGC, the special forces and most fanatical of the Iranian military. These are also the forces responsible for foreign operations including terrorist attacks. For our concerns, we will limit our concerns to address just the possibility for the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordering a nuclear strike on Israel or on any other nation.

 

First, let us look at what logic might be used by the Ayatollah. He would be aware that the United States has extended their nuclear umbrella to Israel which would imply that any nuclear attack upon Israel would potentially result in the United States striking back at the attacker. Between Israel and the United States, there is little comparison between their nuclear capabilities as the United States has a far more capable nuclear capability. The first question is whether or not the United States truly would respond as promised to a nuclear strike on Israel. The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has witnessed a number of United States Presidents and has very probably noticed that the level of support Israel receives wavers from President to President, especially under the administration of President Obama. Thus, it is more likely that the Ayatollah would be more likely to consider taking any actions when the United States has a President who has shown preferably hostility to Israel or possibly only an indifference towards Israel and has pressured Israel over the ill-fated peace process. The real problem comes back to the one book which guides the Ayatollahs and much of the higher officers, especially those of the IRGC, which is the Quran. The one command from the Quran which has appeared again and again when it comes to relations towards Israel are two-fold, first, to kill the infidel wherever one finds them, and second, that the hour (end times) will not begin until you fight the Jews. The combination of these two concepts could lead to problems as the Iranian leading Imams and Ayatollahs have repeatedly proposed that Iran was chosen to bring on the coming of the Mahdi and the End Times. They have claimed that should they cause sufficient chaos and follow prescriptions written in the Quran, that they can cause the onset of the End Times and the coming of the Mahdi. This has often been stated to be solely the hope and ideas held by the Twelvers but some in politics have also adopted these ideas in order to gain greater acceptance by the ruling clerics. Many claim that Iran is not ruled by Twelvers though former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad brought this threat to a head and since then there have been more and more in the power structure who have been revealed as Twelvers. The prevalence of the Twelvers would make the leadership more aggressive which could be a problem, a definite problem.

 

Israel and Iran

Israel and Iran

 

What would possibly push a greater threat would be a Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah who came under some suspicions of impropriety or other weakness which might lead them to make a desperate grab at ending the rumors replacing them with a far greater news story. The Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah could be completely above all suspicion; but should the economic situations worsen leading to greater demonstrations and complete civil unrest and the regular military side with the people and the Ayatollahs believe they are losing control of the nation and may soon be deposed, then having nothing further to lose they might take equally desperate moves. Either threat could lead the Iranian leadership to throw everything they have in their arsenals at Israel and potentially also the United States. But no matter what the immediate future will bring, eventually the Ayatollahs will decide to use any weapons they have and in the not too distant future, that will mean nuclear weaponry. The Quran will eventually force the leadership who will be pressed by the IRGC commanders to press their revolution and Israel and Saudi Arabia are the two targets highest on their list. This means that sooner or later the Iranians will launch weapons at Israel. We will grant that this would not happen until Iran had struck Saudi Arabia and taken over Mecca and Medina, the two holy cities of all Islam. They also have desires to take over Egypt and would have to take Turkey so as to place somebody to rule there as President Erdoğan still has dreams to reestablish the Ottoman Empire and as he will support Iran, that will only last for as long as the Iranian dreams of reestablishing the Persian Empire do not interrupt his idea for the Ottoman Empire. There is no way for the two empires to coexist as the Persian Empire included all of Turkey and much of the Ottoman Empire plus, the Ottoman Empire also included Mecca and Medina, something the Iranians already have their own ideas about. The one place where Turkey and Iran will agree is on attacking Israel, providing that Israel will only be striking back at Iran and Turkey can remain unscathed. The problem is that at some point in the future the Iranian Supreme Leader and Grand Ayatollah will call for an all out attack to destroy Israel and should Israel see a fair number of ballistic missiles headed for Israel launched from Iran, Israel will no longer have time for diplomacy, Israel will need to reply anticipating that the Iranian missiles are tipped with WMD’s and most likely nuclear weapons. We can only hope that before such an eventuality comes to fruition that the people of Iran succeed in replacing their theocratic dictatorship with a true democratic governance which represents the people’s desires and write a constitution which will revitalize the Iranian economic situation and liberate the people from the Ayatollahs and their oppressive rule. We need remember that before the return of the Ayatollahs in 1979, Israel and Iran were friends with embassies and good relations and vital trade. A return to such would be good for Israel, good for Iran and good for both Iranians and Israelis as well as the rest of the Middle East.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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February 21, 2018

A New World is Coming

 

And this new world will start by throwing out the old. That will be their initial mistake and what will follow are the same follies which we thought behind humanity. These youthful and exuberant individuals who make up the Nuevo-Left will throw out everything from before because they are the beginning and whatever came before was from the old and to be discarded. Unfortunately, we can use one item from the old to predict the future with these wunderkind at the head, and it comes from the pen of George Santayana who wrote, “Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement: and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” The last sentence has spawned a plethora of similar phrases all imparting the same wisdom and cautionary warning. But this too is from the past, from the first decades of the last century, so obviously it is old thought and thus rendered worthless. The United States Constitution, it is written on parchment, obviously far too old to be useful in this new age. The Bible too is from back in the Stone Age or close to it, according to new-think, thus it must be discarded as just a collection of useless adages. The Nuevo-Left is far too aware and advanced in thought to require such lessons as they are fashioning a whole new age, a new world where the fallacies of the past will be corrected. We can hardly wait for their new reality and can only wonder what they will have in mind for fossils such as ourselves.

 

This rant came as a response from a number of articles but we were put beyond the cusp and into committing our screed to post was, “Banned! High School Students Drop National Anthem,” which was just the last straw. The line which most closely resembled the reasoning was not so much the fact that there were “offensive words” and a reference to, “the hireling and slave,” but that the Star Spangled Banner, the American National Anthem, was written, and let us quote, “This song was written in 1814. That was written 204 years ago. Imagine all the traditions and laws that have changed.” Imagine that, two-hundred and four whole years ago, like even before television and the Internet. It is just so, you know, old. How could something that old have any relevance today. And while we are dating stuff, you know that thing, the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, like those things are even older, written in the 17’s, the century before the National Anthem, so like useless, right? Whatever we do we should immediately publish a modern worded Bible and try and pass it off as like really new and kewl before they order them all destroyed for being from before paper and pencil. This New Age Nuevo-Left probably would immediately reject anything written in stone, so guess the Ten Commandments are out, even if the original copy chiseled by Moses could be found. This Nuevo-Left are set upon making a clean start and making this new civilization in their imagined perfect image. This should be absolutely wonderful.

 

Let’s see if we can make some hunch driven guesses as to the new rules, the Nuevo-Left will place on society. The first thing we should realize is that these of the Nuevo-Left are of that age and outlook that they know absolutely everything and have so much more knowledge than their adult cohabitants on planet Earth. The Nuevo-Left have looked at the world they are about to inherit and all they see is a mess which is obviously the result of the ancient ideas and laws under which it has been forced to operate. They are ready and willing to impart their great wisdom and correct all the errors of the past. All that is required for the world to become perfect is for all of us to surrender our free will and allow the Nuevo-Left, who, by the way, have a good number of adults who feel the same as them, to impose their will by any and all means available to them. And we need to fully understand, it is all about the feelings. You ask about thinking, well, that only comes in play when feelings fail, and how can good feelings which take everybody and their real needs into consideration ever fail? After all, look where thinking has gotten the world. The world could be improved so much if only feelings were the driving force as feelings are what it is all about. Those of the Nuevo-Left claim that the problems in the world today are caused by a few simply concepts, capitalism and the quest for monetary gains, the laws are rooted in the past and the results of every mistake of history, the system is unfair and leaves so many without while a small minority have most of the wealth. The way things are cements most people to live in the same social strata as they are born to, there is still way too much racism, sexism, homophobia, classism, ableism, xenophobia and the divisions that keep people apart, especially again racism plus other problems caused by nationalism, religion and other things such as identity politics.

 

Then there is one huge problem which has to be solved before things can ever get better, the unenlightened cannot be left in control. Who are the unenlightened? The unenlightened are those who disagree with our new leadership under the Nuevo-Left who are the truly enlightened and honestly know what is best for our society and have all the solutions if only they were to be given the opportunity to repair our world. There is a solution for the poor unenlightened, those who are stuck in the old world and just cannot let go of their unproductive identities, their refusal to let go of politics, of religion, of nationality or of any of the plethora of things which made up the old and broken world. The Nuevo-Left will help these poor unfortunates who have identity difficulties or are stuck with old-thought; they have an education program which will disabuse them of their old-thought and educate them making them accepting of the new-think of the Nuevo-Left.

 

Big Brother is Watching

 

All that remains to do is to hand over complete and total control to the youth with all the answers, the youth of the Nuevo-Left. They have all the answers to every problem. They know how to end wars, make militaries illegal enforced by the United Nations, right? How do we end poverty, redistribution of wealth with equal pay for any and all work. How do we end racism, reeducation until those stuck in hate learn acceptance. Actually, reeducation ends up being the solution to a whole litany of problems. If this sounds familiar like it was tried again and again throughout history, out with the old, in with the new and anything from reeducation to simply elimination of those who are part of the old. We have seen it in books such as Brave New World and 1984 which ends with the line that says it all, “I love Big Brother.” We have seen it in recent history with the Soviet Union and the Stalinist purges or in Communist China with Mao’s Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution and the ensuing Great Leap Forward. But this idea is not new as we saw this in the Roman Empire where those the Romans desired to destroy, they dispersed and enslaved as they did the Carthaginians and the Judeans (Jews). For the record, it did not quite work with the Judeans as they managed to retain their identity. Other examples of the new attempting to drive out the old claiming to have the solution to everything include the Nazis and their concept of the superior race, the Inquisition where they were to purify the world by imposing the only perfect religion, the Caliphate which spread from the Arabian Peninsula and continues to this day following the Quranic demand to spread Islam until all have surrendered to Allah and numerous other attempts at world conquest placing the governance, leadership and supremacy of the conquerors over those defined as the others. There is a concept in the Western and developed worlds that world conquest is an impossibility and that the world may eventually meld with time and agree to a new world order which oversees all but their belief is not universal and there are numerous centers of power in the world who still believe that they are destined to conquer the world and be its masters. Only the future will tell whether or not world conquest is possible and if such does come to fruition, then will it be by force of will, force of an idea, force of weaponry or some force completely unforeseen by our current knowledge. The one thing we can tell the Nuevo-Left, their ideas of a utopia if only they are given complete control of the governance, power, and enforcement will fail either because they were fortunately never given the opportunity or because they were able to take control of the United States and Europe, unified them under their sole governance. The only way the Earth will ever come under a singular rule will be voluntarily and very likely after humanity has spread to inhabit the cosmos and not before. But expect the Nuevo-Left to continue their revolutionary tactics expecting that the society will see the wisdom of their ideas and beg them to take control as they will not be given this power willingly and should they take it by other means they can expect to face great amounts of resistance. Let’s all hope that any changes come peaceably and through the will of the people and not by any other means for the sake of all the people.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 20, 2018

If Only the Media Showed Self-Control

 

There has been proof that these mass shootings cause more mass shootings. They are almost contagious as if it were a virus spreading throughout the population, particularly the youth. Another item we know is that there is the notoriety aspect. Perpetrate a mass shooting and instantly your name is shot around the entirety of the media, you are on every televisions screen and your name is in every newspaper and magazine. Sure, you might spend the next twenty-years or possibly less in prison, but you are now famous. That is the one side which the world can control. Where is my evidence of this? Well, how about what the Oregon shooter who we will not name wrote, “A man who was known by no one, is now known by everyone. … Seems the more people you kill, the more you’re in the limelight.” Then the Fort Hood shooter noted and posted on Facebook, from the same article, “These bastards have perfected their way of attacking by studying previous massacres to gain publicity and their minute of fame as a villain.” In the article, Mona Charen referred to a website which supports the same idea we will explore, it is called No Notoriety and puts forth the simple concept that if the media would leave these names out of their reports and the cases were tried with no media allowed and a closed courtroom, then the big name aspect would be gone, no notoriety, no motive, no fame thus one large reason taken away.

 

That would be one great way to take a bite out of these shootings. Will it end these mass shootings? Unfortunately, this only addresses one aspect and there are so many other reasons starting and not ending with but including mental illness, pure hatred, depression, drug abuse and all the other reasons which drives these shooters. Still, if these shooters are denied any notoriety, then we will likely and fortunately have less of these events. Removing one driving motivation is and always will be on the plus side of the equation. Whatever society can do to take away one reason driving the school and other mass shootings is to the benefit of society. The problem is the media would claim that it is the right of the people to be given news, all the news and any attempt to limit or silence the media from reporting every iota of any and every news story would be the start of the slippery slope to censorship of the news and an end to the First Amendment protections. Of course, this is the same media which shows absolutely no reservations to restrictions of the Second Amendment in order to presumably to bring an end to the same mass shootings. So, apparently, according to the media, it is just wonderful and cool to erase the entirety of the Second Amendment but the First Amendment is sacrosanct. Perhaps they are unaware that the entireties of the Bill of Rights, the first Ten Amendments, are all protected by the Second Amendment. Further, nobody is trying to silence the media; there is simply a request for self-control when reporting on mass shootings. The other way of preventing the media from reporting these names, the authorities need to control their release to the media of these names and the trials should be kept under gag orders silencing the opportunity for the names to be made public. What would be the last resort would be for judges to intervene and impose a gag order silencing the media and everybody else from reporting the names even if they managed to become known. The problem with this idea is the foreign media would have a field day reporting the names and would work overtime to get the names of every shooter just to scoop the American media. Once the European media would release the names, there would be no way of continuing to prevent reporting of the names in the United States as they would just be quoting the foreign media claiming according to foreign reports, the shooter was identified as John Doe.

 

Various Firearms

Various Firearms

 

But there is another solution to the school shootings which the left will scream bloody murder rather than listen to reason. The NRA’s Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre has repeatedly stated, “The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun, is a good guy with a gun.” Israel had a mass school shooting back in 1974 when terrorists attacked a school in Maalot. Israel took the novel approach and armed teachers, in particular, IDF reservists from the infantry teachers who were trained in firearms. They also offered those teachers who desired training the necessary classes and proficiencies before arming them as well. As reported in Arutz Sheva in an article titled, “Israel proves the NRA’s arguments,” they tell all about this and other means Israel has faced violence and defeated it through armed civilians including bring the Stabbing Intifada to an end by simply requesting that all Israelis with legal right to carry weapons, do so and protect the peace. Israel took the opposite route to eliminate violence perpetrated against its schools and as a threat on her streets, she decided to give the innocent protection by arming citizens who had military training or those who had received training in firearms and they became the arm of keeping order which could be places where the military or police were not. This added the fact that now a terrorist or other perpetrator could not tell simply by looking around for police or military personnel and seeing a clear coast know that they would be the only armed individual and thus in control as any civilian might be equally armed and there may even be multiple people armed to respond in preventing a terror attack or other crimes, particularly shootings and with armed teachers, especially in the Israeli schools. Terrorists have reported to police that they more often will attack Haredi Jews because of there being less of a chance for them to be carrying weapons. That is an example of how effective arming the populace can be and should be a warning to the Haredi that they might want to change the equation which makes them a greater target for crimes and terror attacks.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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