One of the oldest and least challenged political rules is that the incumbent in a Presidential election has an advantage due to the Bully Pulpit. Where this is actually a relatively accurate truism, it is far from the only advantage. These advantages are also the exact events and trends we should be on the lookout for in order to gain an accurate assessment of who will likely win the Presidency this November. If the tools at hand that an incumbent can utilize to enhance their chance for reelection work out in his favor, then President Obama will likely achieve his goal of a second term. Should he fail to utilize these items or if they fail in gaining an influence on the voters, then the Republican candidate will most likely take the White House in November. So, what exactly are these signs and events we should be on the lookout for?
Where most of us are aware that the President does not exactly produce jobs at will in order to achieve long-term full employment, there are ways for a President to make a sufficient number of short-term employment opportunities that can affect the unemployment numbers and people’s outlook on the state of employment and the economy. The obvious ploy is to invest sufficient Federal funding in the most highly contested states which the President and his advisors see as the most crucial for his reelection bid. By laying aside a fairly large and tidy sum of Federal funds for highways, bridges, roads, utilities, and other infrastructure projects, the President can start releasing these dollars either into the coffers of a state allowing governors of his party to utilize as he sees necessary or by directing the use for the funds in less friendly states, either way making a good number of short-term length of the project jobs which will greatly enhance the job opportunities in the different constriction industries. The same can be done by pumping money into other projects which by their nature provide additional job openings in other industries and occupations. We can expect in such states as Ohio, Illinois, Colorado, Florida and other critical and close states is for Federal projects to be hurried into implementation beginning in August and continuing through the elections. If we see large amounts of new hardhat areas along interstate highways, bridge replacements or upgrades or other construction projects and find they are having a direct effect upon unemployment forcing it downwards, then this ploy is in full swing and likely working.
Another tool in the incumbent’s tool chest may not be as readily available to President Obama, namely allowing for new permits for oil exploration and production along with facilitating increased mining for coal, ores and other raw materials. Here, President Obama runs afoul of his environmental base which is already displeased with some of the items allowed or not closed down by the President. The Obama team will have to weigh the potential gains against losses should he allow additional drilling, mining, lumber harvests on Government lands, and other such projects. The President might even find it difficult to allow additional lands to be made available for cattle grazing unless he restricts such activity solely for free-range cattle. Along these same lines, the President has the potential to issue waivers from certain regulations which would facilitate a more rapid pace in projects thus increasing the number of positions available once again increasing employment. Basically, there are numerous avenues which a sitting President can flip the switches and free up the economy short-term and push the unemployment numbers down and also have promising new job numbers for the five or six months leading up to election day.
Another item we can fully expect to see this fall is an increase in the numbers and greater fanfare and visibility given to the troops that will be coming home from Iraq and Afghanistan. This will be touted as President Obama making great strides in completing our military interventions and bringing democratic values to Iraq and Afghanistan. We can expect full court press coverage on the wonderful and total completion of our involvement with emphasis on how calm and peaceful everything is in Iraq and Afghanistan. The press will be silent and give little if any play to the actual violence that is growing in both countries and nothing will be noted about the slide towards militant Islam by Iraq and Afghanistan. Any problems in the Middle East will be greatly downplayed and the negotiations coming up with Iran will be stretched out with the hope that they can keep the lid on this potentially explosive situation through the elections. The Obama Administration will do whatever they feel they can get away with in order to prevent any action by Israel and will probably make any promise it takes to restrain Egypt, Turkey, Iran, and the rest of the Muslim World in order for calm to be the appearance through to the election. This is one area where everything could very well blow-up in President Obama’s face and make things very difficult going into the election. Exactly how bad could it become? Picture Jimmy Carter and Iran times about twelve front, Israel, Gaza, West Bank, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Bahrain, and who knows who else as the entire Middle East is dry kindling soaked in oil with numerous entities playing with matches and sparklers. Should the Middle East explode on President Obama it would be poetic justice as he has been the cause of much of the turmoil, tumult, and agitations which are very likely to explode soon, it is simply a matter of time.
Finally, another front President Obama has to enhance his chances for reelection is simply the news cycles and his control of when things get placed before the public. Should the President be able to manage the news cycle in such a way as to have problems being reported kept to Friday afternoons, especially on three day weekends, while funneling the good news to be made public early in the week, particularly after a bad news Friday, so it is repeated ad nauseum through the work week, then both the President and the press can congratulate themselves on a snow-job well done. Of course the Republicans will attempt to force exactly the opposite in the news cycle through the sympathetic outlets. Much of this battle will take place with both sides preaching to their own choir. But do not place little importance on this as whichever side is able to get their base excited and out to the polls on November 6, they will be the winners.
What we can expect throughout this Presidential election cycle is a mainstream press which will be largely backing President Obama. The main fear the President may have on this front is that should the coverage get to the point of absolutely ridiculous such that it can and is ridiculed by many in the entertainment field, then it could actually damage President Obama’s reelection chances. The last thing President Obama needs is endless jokes on the late night shows and skits on Comedy Central and other places. Should the press being in-the-tank for President Obama being reelected end up as the butt of endless jokes and satire, then the news reports and other items of media spin will appear more as jokes than actual reporting and thus not be taken seriously by anybody, and that could spell the end of that marked advantage the President possesses going into the Presidential campaign this fall.
The main things which President Obama will want to accomplish going into November are improving job numbers, lower unemployment numbers with an emphasis on reducing the number of new people filing each week, and generally better economic outlook. President Obama will try to achieve these results through directed funding of projects and other targeted encouragements with an emphasis on the states where the vote is predicted to be close and in those areas only leaning slightly in his favor. If the campaign can be kept isolated and focused on the economy, jobs, and appearance with people emphasizing personality over substance, then President Obama has the advantage. Contrary to popular opinion, President Obama will not be defeated should the campaign remain fixed in the domestic agenda. Where President Obama is most vulnerable is in foreign and world affairs. This is where the Republicans should take the discussion if they truly want to take the White House from Obama. Drive home the reality of the problems roiling just beneath the surface and force the public to look below the calm exterior and see the truth underneath in the Middle East and in Europe. President Obama has too many tools he can utilize to give the economy and the job market the appearance of having tuned the corner and good times being just around the corner. Bringing the focus on the state of the world and how much the United States has lost in our standing in the world and President Obama will have difficulties. Unmask his complete lack of understanding of foreign affairs and reveal all his blunders and failures which are just a hair’s breathe away from exploding and becoming unbelievably ugly. Unearth President Obama’s disgraceful actions and lack of respect for those countries which truly are our best allies and how he has facilitated the Iranian nuclear gains, North Korean nuclear and rocket science gains, allowed for the growth of a Chinese hegemony in the Far East, the disgraceful folding before the Russians on missile defense with his intentions to share our missile defense technology with Putin while disarming the American nuclear weapons without reciprocal reductions by Russia or China, and an almost innumerable myriad of other complete disasters just waiting to befall the United States and the entire world, all of which have been intentionally implemented in stages by President Obama. Trust me when I say that this election is not about the health of the United States’ economy, it is about the continuation of the United States as a world leader or even a world player. An Obama reelection will bring the United States down internationally and bring the entire world to the edge of insanity if not completely into the abyss. You might say we are almost Beyond the Cusp.
Beyond the Cusp
Beyond the Cusp 
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