Beyond the Cusp

May 3, 2014

Another War Most Will Ignore, the Ukraine

The confrontation between the nationalist forces which currently rule in Kiev of the Ukraine and the Russian separatists in the eastern provinces of the Ukraine has exploded into a shooting war. Do not expect the United States or NATO to react with anything beyond maybe some harsh rhetoric. That is not to claim that nobody will react to the pending disastrous situation. We can expect Russian President Putin to react and use something first applied by President Obama when NATO interjected themselves into Libya known as R2P, the “Right to Protect”. R2P was used to claim that somebody had to do something to prevent the slaughter of innocent people when the probability of a civil war presented itself in Libya when forces there first showed signs of deposing Muammar Gaddafi from his dictatorial rule. Using that excuse the NATO forces aided the Libyan rebels providing them with air cover and tactical air support, or at least that was the official story. It has since been shown that the United States had also gone further and provided some of the disparate factions with weaponry which may have provided some of the impetus for the murder of the American Ambassador and three other Americans later in Benghazi, but that is another story. Meanwhile, what was so interesting about the use of R2P in Libya was how once it had been applied in Libya the same concept was not used again in other situations. The most glaring of such opportunities where one might have thought that R2P would have been implemented has to have been in Syria. Instead there have been well over one-hundred-thousand innocents murdered and millions forced to flee their homes and become homeless refugees in neighboring nations.

 

Now the violence in the Ukraine will present President Putin with his own situation where the use of R2P will be perfect to facilitate his intervention and conquest of the eastern provinces of the Ukraine and also provide a land bridge to the Crimean Peninsula, a necessary possession if Russia is to retain that critical area and its sea port in Sevastopol. This will also allow Russia to gain control of the majority of the arms and military equipment manufacturing which is also situated throughout much of these areas in the Ukraine which were originally built by the Soviet Union. We can expect a Russian move to provide protection for the innocent victims of the overt violence being implemented by the Ukrainian government in Kiev which Russia has thus far refused to recognize and has classified as an illegal government resulting from a violent coup. Remember that one man’s revolution and quest for freedom is the other side’s illegal coup and forceful takeover of the governance. The Ukraine will now become one of the most ignored stories in much of the West as nobody desires taking on the risks and potential to fight the Russians once they decide they have sufficient reason to enter the eastern provinces of the Ukraine.

 

As long as Putin refrains from taking the entirety of the Ukraine and just occupies and eventually annexes three or at most four of the easternmost provinces, the West will scream a few threats while sitting on their collective hands. Should Putin continue an offensive and take the entirety of the Ukraine then there will be much noise and possibly some actual sanctions beyond the inconveniences thus far laughingly called sanctions that have thus far been applied. Once again the world will be sitting on their hands until the crucial and fateful step is taken, invading Poland. It was the invasion of Poland by the Nazis and the Soviets which began World War II and it may well be an invasion of Poland which triggers World War III. With the United States having already positioned troops in Poland, the die is cast and the line has been drawn and all that remains is to see if Putin decides to cross this line in the sand. Unlike the invisible moving line in Syria, the Western NATO nations very likely would react quite differently to the line at Poland being crossed as that would place the entirety of the NATO treaty and its relevance to the world today on the line. Poland is most definitely not Syria and this is something the world had best hope that Putin, or as we call him, Vlad the Invader knows and understands well.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

1 Comment »

  1. Reblogged this on oogenhand.

    Like

    Comment by oogenhand — May 3, 2014 @ 3:11 AM | Reply


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