Beyond the Cusp

July 27, 2014

The Ominous Clouds on the Israeli Horizon

The world is once again being sold the big lie that the Israelis are not suffering any stressing anxieties or worrying doubts as the Iron Dome has mostly intercepted the rockets which were most likely to strike populated areas and ignored those which were heading to fall harmlessly, or at least as harmlessly as any large explosive device can strike within earshot of where one is standing. The reality is over eighty percent of Israelis are currently living in the areas where every explosion, be it a rocket striking the middle of a field or the Iron Dome anti-missile missile striking its intercept target overhead, is a nerve wracking jolt reminding them that the next one might be headed for their home, office, child’s school or the very same target of a relative or friend and if it is that one the Iron Dome computers compute errantly is headed harmlessly and therefore no intercept is launched or the intercept misses its mark, and then something unthinkably horrid can potentially happen. Yesterday the article was an attempt to paint a picture of what Israelis are experiencing even doing something as mundane as listening to news and talk radio or your favorite music station and having the Code Red warnings superimposed over the music, conversation or news broadcast repeatedly seemingly every ten to twenty minutes. Most of the time the places listed are not where you currently are listening and other times you immediately drop whatever you are doing and the only thought as you run as best you are able is, did I get the full number of seconds to reach the shelter or was this one of the late detections and I have half as much time. Oh G0d I hope I can run fast enough, praying possibly faster than I ever have before.

Even when the place facing the threat is not your location, as is the case for many Israelis, you have a mental list you check off with every Code Red announcement placing the names of friends, family or friends and family of family and friends who you realize are now running for their lives and you pray for hearing that follow-up report as to whether it was an intercepted rocket or one which fell harmlessly and there was nobody injured or killed. When a rocket does strike a populated area and the news reports that there was only damage to a structure or a house was destroyed but the family had made it to their nearest shelter and no lives were lost or anybody seriously injured, you breathe a sigh of relief remembering that things can be replaced, rebuilt, or made right but people cannot be replaced. In Israel we take every individual fatality as if it were a close member of our own family because we think and feel like every Israeli is a member of our family as in many ways that is true. This feeling was made evident this past week when at the funerals for two lone soldiers, soldiers who made Aliyah and returned home to Israel without their parents or other family members with the full intention of joining the IDF, as they were of the age where Israeli men and women perform compulsory military or volunteer service, despite they’re not being required to do so until they gain full citizenship. Despite being in Israel without their family and having few other connections they only had thirty-thousand Israelis attending their funerals shedding tears and saying mourner’s Kaddish. Further, the Israeli government made arrangements to fly both of these young hero’s families to Israel within twenty-four hours of their sons’ deaths. Every funeral resulting from this war which was inflicted upon Israel and every Israeli had also been a testament of the depth and breadth of the love and care of a shared people be it a fallen soldier or one of the fallen civilians. People attend the funeral of a fallen Israel even if the only attachment previously had was they were from your town or the next town over and that makes it near enough to take personally. Some will travel the majority of the day just to be represented and thank those whose death was a result of protecting the land and its people, the people of which they are a member.

But there are other worries which we face which we have even less ability to control or influence and despite our being powerless to influence these, they play heavily on our minds. For many of us the most pressing of these is a result of the unprecedented and obvious political threat which was launched by President Obama when the Federal Aviation Administration suspended all United States flights, both passenger and cargo, sending the message to Prime Minister Netanyahu, every member of the Knesset and likely inadvertently every Israeli citizen that at the merest suggestion the United States government has the power and influence to economically stifle Israel and destroy her economically and bring Israel to her knees and force compliance. This was timed to coincide with the arrival of Secretary of State Kerry on his uninvited mission to force a cessation of the fighting before Israel can further destroy the tunneling infrastructure and military capabilities of Hamas, the representative of the Muslim Brotherhood in the war against Israel and the Jews. Further, Hamas must remain militarily viable if the Muslim Brotherhood is ever going to have a chance to return Morsi to what President Obama has claimed is his elected and rightful place as President of Egypt. This is part of the Middle East strategy which has driven the United States, Qatar and Turkey together and likely to have replaced Mahmoud Abbas as President Obama’s number one favorite friend, as he was on Inauguration Day in January 2009 when the newly sworn in President Obama made Chairman Abbas the first international politician he called from the Oval Office, and moved Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan into the number one BFF of the American President. The doubt this raises is what will the reaction of the Obama Administration be when Israel needs resupply of military supplies. Will the Israeli request be met with another isolating flight ban followed by President Obama woefully whining that his hands are tied and there is nothing he can do until the flight ban is lifted. Never mind that such a ban cannot be enacted placing an entire nation and an ally into isolation by banning all air flights to or from the country without Presidential approval, or more aptly, Presidential initiation of the entire idea.

Should such a step be in Israel’s future one might be pressed to ask, what else could go wrong? That is where everything would get very complicated and difficult for Israel as in such a situation it would be hard to believe that Iran would be able to pass up a golden opportunity to strike Israel when she is in a weakened and compromised position being cut off by her supposedly best friend and ally and military backer since the deal with the devil was first wrought to stop the development of the Lavi, the Israeli fourth generation jet fighter which would have been a direct competitor to the American F-16 in the world’s strongly contested market of military hardware. The trade made by Israel where she dropped any further development of jet fighters and agreed to be supplied by the United States with F-16s, F-15s and virtually everything militarily concerned including rounds for Israeli military firearms, rounds for the Merkava tanks, aircraft and their armaments and far more. A military embargo inflicted on Israel by the United States, which is what such a move would result in, would make Israel extremely vulnerable, especially should a second front be opened by Iran by having Hezballah strike out of Lebanon out of the Israeli northern border. This would not be all that impossible to visualize, it has already occurred. The year after Hamas took control over Gaza in a coup, Israel entered Gaza in an operation called “Summer Rains” on June 28, 2006, responding to Hamas’s abduction of Corporal Gilad Shalit. Close on the heels of the start of the conflict with Hamas in Gaza, Hezballah opened a second front attacking Israel’s northern towns with rockets setting up an assault with an anti-tank weapon on an Israeli armored Humvees patrolling the border killing three soldiers and abducting two soldiers. What followed was the Second Lebanon War and Israel fighting wars on two fronts. The same situation is one possibility which would only be furthered should Israel not be resupplied and appear to be in a weakened and vulnerable situation.

A two front war would place Israeli towns, cities, kibbutzim and Israelis on remotely situated farms in mortal jeopardy. Should rockets be launched at Israel from two fronts, it would place a strain on the abilities of the vaunted Iron Dome systems. Places currently defended by a single Iron Dome would require at least two systems as threats would be launched from two separate and opposite directions. This would force the Israeli government and military to pick and choose which places would continue to be protected and which would be left completely at the mercy of fortune and in the hands of G0d. To protect as many citizens as possible there would be a necessity to offer relocation to safer areas to those Israelis living in places no longer covered as completely by the Iron Dome systems. The potential for such a scenario should frighten any sane and reasonably intelligent person as Israel would be under threat in a weakened position which can be best related in the natural world to an injured animal with young to protect. This is simply a geopolitical situation to be utilized and played for maximum favorable outcomes where nations could take the vulnerable situation, even of a presumed ally, to dangerous levels. Israel would be the victim of such a power play and end up facing a dire situation with her entire existence threatened. There is one saving grace in this situation, and it came into existence as a result of this exact scenario which played out in Yom Kippur War in October 1973. President Nixon acted under the suggestion of his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger who advised that the United States initially deny Israel rearmament as agreed in order to make Prime Minister Golda Meir and the Israelis realize their vulnerability and influence them to a more plaint and agreeable state. This maneuver almost backfired as with Israeli forces being apparently overrun on two fronts, Egyptian and Syrian, appeared to enact what has been theorized as the Israeli final option and Prime Minister Golda Meir ordered the lids to the nuclear missile silos to be opened. This was almost immediately detected by the United States spy satellites and provided the necessary impetus for President Nixon to immediately provide all of the military aid Israel required. In the aftermath of this conflict there was an agreement between Israel and the United States whereby a complete resupply which might be necessary to equip an entire United States deployment in the Middle East such that they could be deployed in what is referred to as a light deployment and simply be armed upon arrival was placed within Israel in cold storage. This entire supply was also intended to be an initial resupply for the IDF to cover the interim period before resupply can arrive from the United States. What is even more advantageous is that the Israelis are permitted by the agreement to utilize should the need be realized. Still this military depository would not be sufficient to last the entirety of a prolonged conflict, especially one on two fronts. The one other ramification of such a scenario would be the inevitable accusations that the Israelis were sacrificing protection for Arab neighborhoods in favor of Jewish neighborhoods.

There is one last ramification which is still to materialize from the current conflict with Hamas which will arrive from various directions and sources. These will be the inevitable attempts to bring Israeli political and military leadership and possibly individual soldiers before courts on charges of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity. There will be no similar tribunals arraigning any of the Hamas leadership, only Israelis are considered to have committed such crimes similarly to the concept that only Palestinians are suffering from the conflict while the Israelis are partying in the streets and facing absolutely no threats or danger. This has been a situation which has been prevalent in ever increasing frequency where Israeli leadership, both military and political, are arraigned on charges whenever they travel outside of Israel. This was recently on display when Israeli Minister of Justice was invited to Britain for some innocent sounding reason but actually it was arranged so that she could meet with Secretary of State Kerry and Chairman Abbas despite having been cautioned not to meet Abbas by the Prime Minister. The British found it necessary to guarantee Ms. Livni complete immunity as they felt assured that the pro-Palestinian groups would seek a friendly judge to swear out a warrant on charges of having been a party in war crimes and crimes against humanity simply for serving as a Foreign Minister during “Operation Cast Lead” against Hamas in late 2008 through early 2009. Similar events have restricted Israeli officials from attending courses, lectures, events of numerous venues or even take a vacation. This situation exists almost exclusively in European nations who have chosen to take upon themselves the authority to adjudicate war crimes, crimes against humanity and similarly related criminal offensives.

The future in Israel is, as usual, in a state of flux and uncertainty as there are many forces doing everything possible to force a ceasefire as immediately as their efforts can accomplish seemingly in order to preserve as much of Hamas’s resources and war fighting capabilities from the Israeli efforts to destroy those very same capabilities. The world reaction to Israeli efforts to eliminate as much of the Hamas ability to commit terrorist acts and make war against Israel or also assist the forces of the Muslim Brotherhood in their struggle to resume their rule in Egypt through the reinstatement of Morsi as President has been less than morally exemplary. As preposterous as such may seem, one might consider such more plausible when they keep in mind that there are efforts to supply the rebels in Syria which will knowingly be likely to provide arms and other provisions for the al-Nusa Front and even ISIS. If Western governments are willing to arm the likes of former and present al-Qaeda affiliates, then why would they shy from doing similar for Hamas as they are allied with the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood, a seeming ally and similarly aligned pair of terror organizations if ever there were such. Geopolitical relations are quite often best revealed during times of conflict and warfare through the actions or inactions, support or denial of assistance, alliance or opposition, all forms of aid being granted or frozen, and even such items as continuation or disruption of commercial and passenger flights into and out of a particular area. That is why the recent disruption of air transport in and out of Israel was so telling as during the same period there was no such interruption of flights to and from Syria, Iraq or the Ukraine. Telling, very telling, revealing and of great interest. Any reply from President Obama of questions into the reasons for that suspension would be quite intriguing but is something we will only be able to postulate about as no such questioning will ever be put to the President by the mainstream media. As stated as an answer to a Chinese curse, “Yes, we indeed do live in strange and interesting times.”

Beyond the Cusp

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1 Comment »

  1. Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.

    Like

    Comment by OyiaBrown — July 27, 2014 @ 4:41 AM | Reply


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