Beyond the Cusp

November 28, 2014

This Will Likely be the Final Extension With Iran

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The last set of negotiation between the P5+1 (United States, Britain, China, Russia, France and Germany) with Iran ended on Monday without them reaching any agreement and the setting of another deadline for seven months hence. That deadline is meaningless as was very probably the past deadline which just expired as Iran has been holding joint developmental programs on their rocket and missile technology as well as nuclear weapons technology over the last two decades. The bad news is there will probably not be any meaningful future negotiations as before the seven month deadline is reached the Iranians will not only have established a nuclear weapons program but have already produced a number of weapons making them a bonafide nuclear weapons power and quite possibly capable and producing miniature warheads just as has become acknowledged fact for the North Koreans. This will allow the Iranians to mount their nuclear weaponry atop their ballistic missiles which already are capable of reaching much of Europe and most of the United States if permitted to stage their nuclear missiles in Venezuela, Nicaragua or Cuba, the first two of which have already signed agreements with Iran permitting their doing exactly that staging. Even more frightening is that Iran has practiced and proven to have the ability to launch ballistic missiles with close to a two-thousand mile range from onboard merchant ships similar to the North Korean flagged ship which was found to contain just such a missile while traversing the Panama Canal. Where once it becomes known that the Iranians have developed and been producing nuclear warheads there will be many who will rush to accuse President Obama and his administration of falling down on the job and failing utterly in preventing the Iranians from reaching breakout point and actually begin producing nuclear weapons., the reality is that there is more than sufficient blame to go around as these negotiations have been progressing for almost twenty years and none of the American Presidents showed any capability at understanding the facts that they all had been played by the Iranians from the very beginning.

 

Blame is not going to be of any help and will be a simple waste of time and energy. The problem facing the world now is that since the clock cannot be wound back and the ability of Iran to produce deployable nuclear warheads be undone, then steps need to be taken to assure that the ability of Iran for utilizing those warheads is diminished to the point of being made negligible before the Middle East is launched into a nuclear arms race with every nation racing their neighbors trying to maintain sufficient weapons which will presumably attain some strange balance and a very tricky MADD system where Shiite and Sunni nations balance against each other and even intra-Shiite and intra-Sunni nations also balance with each one claiming to have developed sufficient deterrence against all the other new nuclear weapons powers. It can be assumed that Saudi Arabia will receive not only nuclear technology and designs from Pakistan but also an initial set of nuclear warheads potentially already atop ballistic missiles as a repayment for their bankrolling the Pakistani nuclear program after India detonated their first nuclear warhead. Turkey and Egypt likely have sufficient technological expertise to develop their own rudimentary nuclear weapons program with it being simply a matter of time before they also join the nuclear weapons club. Then there are the rest of the oil rich nations who would be capable of investing sufficient funding to attain nuclear weapons technology and build their own arsenals. Then there is the further complication that many of these nations also have ties with nations and terrorist groups who all would be pressuring to be granted a nuclear device with which to resolve some problem or to use to threaten a neighbor such as Syria might want to threaten Turkey or the Sudan might desire a warhead with which to destroy South Sudan and take back any or all of the oilfields which they lost control over. Then there might be desires to threaten Europe or Israel or the Chechens might want to strike Russia and claim innocence as they were not known to have any nuclear devices or the Uyghurs might desire to strike China in much the same manner. Then there is the small matter of Israel and take your pick of who might desire to strike Israel with a nuclear device, especially if they thought they could deflect suspicions onto somebody else. Then there is the idea that Iran has often made known where they desire a world without America or Zionism and as their chant is most often, “Death to America, Death to Israel.” And the small fact that they refer to the United States as the great Satan and Israel as the little Satan, it is obvious that Iran desires to strike the United States as much if not more so that they do Israel. The Iranians also must realize that they would have an easier time striking Israel if the United States had been delivered a decapitating attack first.

 

The only thing more complicated than getting a straight answer from anybody in the Obama White House as to how they were unable to prevent the Iranians from developing and being ready and able to deploy nuclear warheads would be to be able to figure out the resulting rush and development of nuclear weapons and building of arsenals across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) while also predicting whose weapon would be the first actually delivered, at whom it would be targeted, and through which proxy might that strike take place utilizing. The easy prediction is that within eighteen months of Iran testing or declaring their possession of a nuclear device that Saudi Arabia will also be well armed with multiple warheads and it may even take less than a few weeks before they had received their initial shipment of warheads from Pakistan unless Iran is capable of preventing such a transfer from Sunni Pakistan to Sunni Saudi Arabia and the cash cow that Pakistan owes a great debt to Saudi Arabia for underwriting the Pakistani drive to nuclear capabilities and the purchasing of the tools required for the production of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal. The other problem is that once the cat is out of the bag and the Middle East enters into an arms race, the long-standing idea of nuclear nonproliferation will be fatally struck through its heart and die so quickly that there will be insufficient time for the United Nations to call for an emergency meeting, or even for the United Nations to blame Israel, and that is fast. Then there is the one other constant we can expect, and that is when the United Nations does call its meeting to place the blame for the arms race that murdered the nonproliferation treaty, the entire blame will initially be placed on Israel, and after any further investigations are complete, Israel and then the United States will be blamed with the tie breaker going to Israel simply because Prime Minister Netanyahu has been the leader in demanding that force would be required and required earlier rather than later to prevent the Iranians reaching nuclear breakout and actually producing an arsenal. The only question which will not be answered by the end of the next deadline in seven months will be if Iran will have developed, and admitted to having done so, a nuclear weapon. There should be no question that Iran will have attained nuclear breakout and already started to stock a nuclear weapons arsenal before the next deadline and something they have probably been busy building during the time they have been negotiating for the past year or longer. But do not expect anybody from the negotiations let out the truth as the Iranians know they benefit by extending the negotiations for as long as they are able while packing away nuclear warheads and developing intercontinental ballistic missiles and increasing their accuracy and President Obama has placed his legacy on reaching an agreement so that he can claim that he reached the agreement which brought us peace in our times. Let us all hope that peace in our time has far less drastic results as the last time a world leaders exclaimed those words on his return to Britain from Munich. This time the declaration will be made after deplaning from Geneva or Vienna rather than Munich, but does that difference really make a difference? Probably not one iota.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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1 Comment »

  1. Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.

    Like

    Comment by OyiaBrown — November 28, 2014 @ 6:27 AM | Reply


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