Beyond the Cusp

February 20, 2015

Coming Iran Deal May Be Worse than Netanyahu Claims

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When Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu gives his speech to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday March 3, 2015, he may actually be relating a scenario of best possible deal Iran might accept. President Barack Obama might be correct when he claims that he is attempting to have Iran accept the only deal they are willing to make and that pushing for anything more stringent would simply result in Iran balking and walking out without any deal and doing whatever they please. We should all take up what very well could be the newest slogan in the ever shifting political scene that instead of President Obama’s first campaign theme of Hope and Change, we are now looking at Hope and Pray. There is another problem in the Iran dealings which everybody has apparently ignored, what if Iran walks away from the negotiations and simply states that no deal no matter how generous is as good as no deal and Iran doing whatever their hearts desire. This should be a negotiating scenario with which the Israelis should be very used to as it is the exact negotiating scenario Israel had faced with Mahmoud Abbas and Yasser Arafat before him when attempting to negotiate an end to the Arab Israeli dispute. This is where their negotiations are a diversion and have nothing to do with the terms being so laboriously and tediously worked through down to the last detail, exactly as Secretary of State John Kerry described are currently being hashed out at the negotiations between the P5+1 (United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany) and the Iranians. According to Secretary of State Kerry the major framework of an agreement has been laid out and that the negotiations are proceeding on a series of minutia such as inspections schedules, types of centrifuges permitted, how many of the centrifuges would be permitted to be swapped out and replaced with superior and newer centrifuges as time and technology progress, size of the permissible Iranian stockpile of LEU (lowly enriched uranium) and a plethora of other very specific items. This tactic sounds exactly like the Arab negotiations such as the Camp David Summit negotiations which were held under the generous sponsorship of United States President William Jefferson Clinton and proceeded to where all the particulars and specifics of the deal had been negotiated and spelled out. Perhaps a recounting of these events will help.

 

They were meeting in Paris to formally complete the deal and hold the signing ceremony when the Israeli team headed by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak surprised Arab leader Yasser Arafat by simply accepting his presumed final objection in order to arrive at a signed agreement bringing an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict by establishing an Arab state consisting of the West Bank and Gaza with land exchanges on the final five percent of lands Israel was to retain from the West Bank made up of lands from within the Green Line, the sharing of Jerusalem, even a partial right of return, the final demand Arafat believed would be a poison pill the Israelis could not accept, but they did, and every other seeming dispute settled. Yasser Arafat found himself at a place he had thought he had shrewdly been able to avoid ever since the initial agreement in 1993 with the Oslo Accords and their stipulation for working towards a peace settlement. There everybody was sitting at the table, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak with the Israeli negotiators, Yasser Arafat and the Arab negotiators, President William Jefferson Clinton and Secretary of State Albright and the American facilitators on a beautiful Paris afternoon and a completed deal ready for the signatures making the deal final when Yasser Arafat refused to sign claiming the entire deal null and void and totally unacceptable to him, he then rose and stalked out of the negotiations to his car which was awaiting him outside. Immediately behind Arafat was a running Madeline Albright sounding as desperate as she did comical her short body attempting to catch Arafat while teetering on heeled shoes giving up more and more ground as she flung herself wildly down the hallway. That was the end of the Camp David Accords despite Taba Summit and every other final last ditch attempt by the Clinton Administration to forge a deal which would bring Arafat back to the table. He outright refused and never fully explained that his problem was that he would accept nothing less than the destruction of Israel replacing it with an Arab state and removal or slaughter of the Jews residing there, much the same as Abbas is currently working towards as there is not one stich of difference between Arafat and Abbas outside of their attire.

 

The filling in of the minutia is exactly the steps which are being laboriously worked through parsing every last terminology, checking the exact meaning of each and every word, even getting down to the punctuation so as not to miss even the slightest potential for some misunderstanding down the road which may lead to problems of vision as to whether or not the agreement was being fulfilled. This all takes time, inordinate amounts of time, copious amounts of time and this is as the Iranians desire as it also prevents any further real negotiating between the initial extension and the next deadline and meanwhile no actual progress has been achieved. Should one really desire to see what the final idea of an acceptable agreement would entail, all one need do is to research the statements and specifications defined by speeches, press releases and even Facebook and other social media postings made by the only person who actually holds power in Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made his position abundantly clear and despite it differing from nearly every statement made by President Hassan Rouhani, Parliamentary President Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, Foreign Minister and Chief Nuclear Negotiator Mohammad Javad Zarif or any of the other Iranian political elites. The Supreme Leader has stated in every possible manner that the sole item standing in the way of an agreement are the illogical and indefensible demands which the Western powers continue to stick to in an unprincipled and arrogant ignorance and denial of reality. He has repeatedly stated that it is the right and prerogative of Iran to continue to enrich uranium with as many centrifuges as they desire producing enriched uranium as they see fit for their purposes and the objections of other nations are irrelevant as Iran seeks only the peaceful use of nuclear power leaving nothing for the United States or the Europeans to object to. He has demanded that the Western powers simply realize the truths and respect Iranian independence and their rights as a nation which is their equal, possessing the right to exercise its rights just as any other nation does. The faster the United States and the Europeans relent from their ridiculous demands and show the proper respect of the Iranian people and their government then the faster an agreement which is in accord with the rights and privileges of the independent Iranian nation recognizing its dignities and right to proceed with their nuclear ambitions can be attained and signed. Unless Iran is given the same respect that the Western nations demand for themselves, the sooner the silliness of these talks can end and a serious debate can be held. Simply put, Iran is going to do what Iran wishes to do and the rest of the world can just sit back and observe, period.

 

The Iranian negotiators have agreed with Secretary of State Kerry on one very important point, an agreement and a point which the world would be very unwise in ignoring. They have both stated that there will be absolutely no need nor will there be any plan for further negotiations beyond the coming deadline which has been stated as being March 24, 2015. There are some who claim that technically the actual drop dead end to this round of talks is actually in June or even possibly July. That is of little comfort if the Iranians believe and are holding to the end of the debates being late March as they have claimed that that is their deadline and no extension will be considered. This means that we will very soon see exactly what almost two decades, should one count from the start of talks between the Europeans and Iran and not from the delayed entry of the United States, all has been an exercise in futility and has proceeded exactly as the Iranians had desired, simply stalling any other avenue such as that famous option which has constantly been right there on the center of the table never ever to be taken off of the table, let alone implemented, the military option. The United States view of ever making use of the military option has been made clear beyond the fact that President Obama has often informed the media, “I was elected to end wars, not to start them.” This has been carried to the point that on a number of occasions where Israel had been making preliminary arrangements for their utilizing of the military option, there were leaks suspected, and one even obviously, emanating from the White House which exploded any deals or arrangements coordinated by the Israelis. There was the leak that Israel had obtained overflight permission from the rulers of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the leak of the leasing of two defunct military airfields from Azerbaijan and the United States stated position after Israel had arranged for overflight with Jordan that any unscheduled overflights of Iran would be intercepted by the United States and engaged and shot from the skies if such illegal flights were attempted. These leaks were all made known to the appropriate governments which would have made life very difficult for the nations involved with Israel forcing them to claim that all such information were completely false and that such cooperation with Israel could and would never ever be contemplated, let alone such agreement reached.

 

Meanwhile, the United States continues to lead the dancing troupe of diplomats from Europe all dancing to a tune skillfully orchestrated by the Iranian master manipulators all while making furious noise upon the world’s stage all signifying nothing. The next month will be spent with numerous State Department officials and specialists meeting in endless sessions with their Iranian counterparts going over every word, every spot of punctuation, researching countless thesauruses and dictionaries, translating terms between Farsi and English and even potentially Arabic just to make sure that everything means exactly what both sides think they mean and even potentially having the American side using a word repeatedly only to be countered by an Iranian claiming, “You keep using that word, I don’t think it means what you think it means.” There will be arguments, heated discourse, difficulties laboriously worked through and potentially even fists or even shoes slammed upon tabletops before stalking from the session. We have not had a good recorded footwear slammed on the tabletop since the fall of 1960, when in the midst of the debates at the United Nations concerning the Korean Crisis that Russian Premier Nikita Khrushchev reportedly did exactly that, slammed his shoe atop the table during a session of the Security Council and then led the Russian contingency stomping from the room. This is what supposedly allowed the Security Council the opportunity to pass a resolution permitting military force against North Korea leading to the still unsettled Korean War. It is doubtful that the Iranians would pull such a stunt though it would be a form of ultimate insult as shoes are often thrown as a sign of great disrespect for the targeted individual, ask former President George W. Bush who received just such treatment at the hands of an infuriated Iraqi reporter. The main objective of the Iranians, which will eventually become evident, is to run out the clock without having reached a final wording of an agreement so as to facilitate their walking from the negotiations without any agreement and then either declaring their intent to remove themselves from the restraints of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or to simply continue on to completing their preliminary nuclear weapons research and go on to manufacture nuclear weapons while continuing their research into larger, more powerful yet smaller nuclear devices as well as thermonuclear devices, often called hydrogen fusion devices, while never even bothering to formally depart from the NPT. The final piece which Iran has gained is ISIS and its threat to the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The Iranians are very likely to offer a grand deal to President Obama where they will provide the needed boots on the ground against ISIS providing the United States allow Iran a bundle of items in exchange. These include retaining the lands it recaptures from ISIS, allowing Iran to absorb the majority of Iraq and all of Syria and Lebanon, and allowing Iran complete freedom in the nuclear field as long as Iran also promises not to expose President Obama to any embarrassment by not revealing their nuclear arsenal’s existence until he has left office. After he has left office Iran would then be free to reveal their nuclear capability in a staggered manner in order to make it appear they had not gained their knowledge nor began assembling weaponized nuclear devices while President Obama was in office. All these promises would provide Obama with the cover he would require for his legacy which would include his preventing a nuclear Iran while bringing Iran back within the community of nations and reestablishing Iran-American relations. President Obama might even be permitted to reopen an American Embassy in Tehran. This may even be the best agreement that President Obama and the P5+1 might be able to accomplish as the alternative is an end to negotiations and leaving with their hands empty and less than nothing to show for all their endless efforts.

 

The end result will potentially be that President Obama will end up having no agreement and no prospect of an avenue to preventing the Iranians from the wholesale manufacturing of nuclear weapons and building a huge arsenal resulting in a Middle East nuclear weapons race which may very well result in some very nasty scenarios. What must be kept in mind is that Israel is far from the only nation sitting on the Iranian ‘do not send Christmas cards to list’ who instead might receive a nuclear device used as an EMP device exploding high over the center of the nation. The Iranians would love little more than to replace the Saudis from being the guardians of the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina. Iran also had designs which are well on their way to fruition of incorporating much of Iraq as a province of the renewed Persian Empire simply renamed as the Iranian Empire. After Syria and Lebanon, Iran will be well on their way towards the reacquisition of the lands once controlled by the Persian Empire, about the only things missing from the Persian Empire would be Turkey, Jordan, Israel and a run through the Greek Islands after a very nasty and costly three days at the Pass of Thermopolis. Iran does not see the world through the same lens as does the Western nations. Iran looks at the Western nations as defunct, swimming in debt, morally corrupt, debaucherous, poorly ruled, lacking in direction and perched precariously just waiting to be nudged beyond the cusp and falling into a great chasm, a great abyss never to rise again. And who do the Iranians see as the successor to the Western Hegemony? Themselves, of course. They see themselves rolling across Europe in an easy conquest after subjugating the Middle East and slashing across Northern Africa unifying the entirety of the Muslim world placing themselves and Shia Islam as the preeminent force in all of Islam and as the subjugators of Sunniism. Their slicing across Europe would proceed with ease of effort as the United States would have been brought low after the EMP device was detonated high above St Louis or Kansas City. Once they had conquered Rome they would see that as having defeated all of Christendom, making their only remaining conquest to be Asia. Iran is seeking to conquer the world and they see nothing out in the world that could potentially pose any real or serious threat opposing such a conquest. They see the United States as a technological giant with a serious Achilles Heel, the complete and total reliance on that technology which requires electricity, great quantities of electricity, in order to feed that technology and without which the United States would be mortally wounded. They view Europe as simply waiting to be subjugated and they figure that the disarming of Europe after World War II and their continued military decline resulting from their emphasis on luxuries and frivolities and neglecting their military defense as their biggest weakness which has left them virtually defenseless.

 

The only remaining threat might be Israel which they have claimed is a one or two bomb nation which even with its nuclear capabilities still would not pose any serious threat to Islam as an entirety. Further, if the Iranians put off confronting Israel until they had conquered all the rest of the Middle East and potentially Northern Africa, then Israel would definitely not pose a threat to their entirety of conquest. The United States is a one or two bomb nation because they only need destroy the electrical grid and potentially a third and fourth bombs to take out New York City and Washington D.C. as that would wound America fatally in their financial and political hearts, especially if they struck when almost all of the political class is in the Capital building with the President as happened every January for the State of the Union Address. Should Iran partner initially with Russia, the Russians might realize too late that Iran has used them and had no plans on sparing them from their eventual subjugation under Islam. That leaves the two Asian heavyweights outside of Russia, namely China and India. Iran honestly regards themselves as the next hegemonic world power and sees nobody capable of standing in their way, a view the Western world should regard with great trepidations and respond potentially with great and furious force as anything less may leave the free world in a more serious predicament than they found themselves in when ignoring Winston Churchill and all the warnings he had laid out before them and refused the resistance through force he had demanded of them. The result was Dunkirk and almost the loss of the free world to Adolph Hitler. History does not repeat itself exactly the same each time but comes disguised as the past’s adopted cousin, something that acts similarly but is just different enough that it becomes difficult to detect. You know you have seen all this before but you are unable to draw the correct conclusion, sometimes that delay may make everything else too little too late.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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1 Comment »

  1. Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.

    Like

    Comment by OyiaBrown — February 20, 2015 @ 8:38 AM | Reply


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