Beyond the Cusp

April 7, 2015

Historic Lessons and Future Nuclear War

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Since before Homo Sapiens first walked the earth there were earlier versions which vied for predominance and if but for a super weapon would have become the earlier predecessors of modern man. We postulate that the first super-weapon was likely the club which began as a simple heavy branch of a tree. This was a vast improvement over the closed fist as it granted greater range and impressive additional force. The club proved to give even greater force than the thrown rock though it did place the wielder closer to the prey and thus in greater danger. These weapons improved but eventually there was to come a divide which separated the two main branches contending, though unknowingly; to eventually produce what would evolve to be modern human beings. One group had a sturdy spear which, like its predecessor the club, relied at fighting at close distance from the prey and the other the thrown spear which had to be balanced and was to be hurled from a safe distance though it required carrying numerous spears into the hunt. When these two competing branches of what might become humankind came into direct competition the elegance of the thrown spear and the speed and stamina it had granted its wielder over those who utilized a thicker thrusting spear which required close order and greater strength which had their society develop greater strength at the cost of speed and stamina, the more advanced throwing spear proved the vital difference.

 

Through the years of human history there has been constant evolution of weaponry with each successive development resulting in a more effective killing machine and greater casualties in each subsequent war. The development war soon became a battle between defensive protection and the ability to deliver harm. Shields and leather armor was superseded by steel weapons which led to layered armors and eventually stronger metals and eventually plate armor which made the wearer almost invulnerable to any single blow from any weapon of its day. This led to two weapons which changed the path of human history. The first was the crossbow which was capable of piercing even heavy plate mail armor and a weapon specific to the soldiers of the British Isles, the longbow. The first use of the longbow, made possible due to the Yew tree and its particular properties, came onto the battlefield with initial devastating results during the Hundred Years’ War in the battle of Crécy where the French had set their camp beyond range of archers, regular archers whose ranges were well known by all. The British archers setup early the next morning much to the bemusement of the French who continued with the breakfast presumably trading jokes about the crazy British lining up their archers beyond possible range. The surprise followed by the utmost confusion interrupted the French merriment and fine food as the longbows delivered with stunning accuracy matching their astonishing range. The range of the longbow being an advantage was relatively short-lived as this super-weapon was soon copied by every army across Europe but too late to cause surprise as tactics, especially pertaining to the distance from the enemy when establishing campsites.

 

Human history could be considered as a succession of super weapons and the tactics and next super-weapons to counter them. For years the chariot was the ultimate weapon which was used to the utmost perfection by the Egyptians and later the Persians and the one form of attack for which Alexander the Great specifically trained his infantry in a tactic by which to not only blunt their effectiveness but actually defeat their use completely, even the bladed chariot which spun sword-like blades from each wheel. The chariot eventually became the tank and the arrow the bullet, grenade and the anti-tank rockets. The trireme became the galleon and then the ironclad to the battleship and aircraft carrier. The hot air balloon used to aim artillery eventually led to the biplane which was turned to a machine of war which would become the heavy bomber of World War II and eventually the jet fighters and strategic bombers. These strategic bombers today carry the ultimate weapon man has produced to this day, nuclear weapons. These weapons have been developed to perform precise tasks. These include thermonuclear weapons capable of destroying cities, tactical nuclear weapons useable for total destruction on a scale appropriate for the battlefield, neutron bombs which destroy the living beings while leaving the buildings and all material things completely intact, an Electromagnetic Pulse device which destroys electronic devices with more effective such devices capable of destroying electronic grids on an unimaginable scale, or even the most simple of nuclear weapons such as those which President Obama has promised to prevent Iran from ever obtaining, for as so many say such weapons must never be used. Perhaps we need never use such a phrase when it would be so much more convincing, especially for the United States and its representatives, to say that such weapons must never be permitted to be used ever again and demand that the memory of their initial use be recalled and their horrors understood and perhaps even a bit of contrition might go a long way in proving the honesty of intentions.

 

The unfortunate reality is that eventually nuclear weapons will fall into or already exist in the wrong hands and they will be utilized as weapons of war once more. They might be implemented as a weapon of last resort to attempt to alter what appears a certain defeat. They might be implemented as the initial weapon in order to produce a level of destruction making any opposition impossible and producing what is hoped will result in an unalterable victory. They might be used solely to alter the areas of a battlefield where defeat appears inevitable or used to replace artillery in paving a clear path for an advance. The inevitable truth is every ultimate weapon has been used in war even despite treaties or agreements. World War I saw the extensive use of nerve agents and poison gas which produced such a horrific toll in human life that it was relegated to the dustbin of history presumably due to treaties reached after the war making their use illegal. There have even been weapons control treaties since then forcing the destruction of stores of chemical and nerve agents. Still, despite the red line threat by United States President Obama, Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad turned to chemical weapons repeatedly ignoring any threats and calling President Obama who backed down sputtering helplessly until Russian President Putin offered a way out which the United states President jumped at and then allowed for Assad to renege on the deal without paying any penalty. There have been laws to war agreed upon by major powers but often only ever observed by one side in most conflicts. Another weapon which saw extended use even to the recent age but has been targeted for elimination by the United Nations and numerous nations are landmines due to their toll of killing civilians even years after the war in which they were utilized had ended. The same is the case for cluster munitions which place bomblets across a wide area often scattering many unexploded munitions which are relatively small but remain deadly even for years after the conflict has ended. These as well have hurt many civilians and often have taken the lives of children most regrettably. There are presumably treaties against the use of weapons of mass destruction which, unsurprisingly, nuclear weapons are the current kings. Still, the treaties are merely pieces of paper and are not the most effective counter to any kind of weapons and especially not against nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction.

 

All of this leads us to the current situation where we have been told that huge amounts of progress have been made and a framework has been constructed for the remainder of the negotiations which will now have June 30 of this year to reach a final agreement. The expectation is that we will believe that the framework is the actual and set in stone agreement of principles from which the rest of the agreement will be fleshed out and the framework will define the end agreement. What the Iranians have agreed is that they provided President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry with their necessary framework which includes everything they had pursued and explained to the Iranians were necessary for them to continue. This was granted to them but the Iranians have little if any intent of continuing to negotiate using the framework as their model and skeleton around which to structure the finished agreement. The Iranians have simply provided President Obama a piece of paper to wave around and claim victory knowing that the end result will have little if anything in common with the framework. The Iranians believe that everything is fungible and the framework is actually made of wet clay and can be remolded and remodeled until it looks exactly what Iran desires or it will be balled up and discarded. President Obama has about as much a framework as British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlin had after the 1938 Munich treaty with Germany. There is a great difference between the framework and the Munich treaty, there are a lot more people suspicious and untrusting that any kind of agreement has been defined by this framework and that the June 30 deadline is almost as meaningless as the past deadlines which have been redefined repeatedly thus far. The odds are that just like North Korea, the Iranians have developed and are producing nuclear weapons and readying the necessary missiles including ICBMs on which to mount their warhead. One thing that makes this even more believable is that many in the State Department negotiations team are the same people who made up the negotiating team that negotiated North Korea into being nuclear armed on their watch. The parallels between the two negotiations are astounding where though the locations have changed, there are actually many of the same players.

 

The thing that needs to be debated is what to do should, or when, it becomes obvious that the Iranians have been negotiating in bad faith and have been developing and building nuclear weapons while giving the IAEA inspectors the runaround and extending negotiations until they are ready for whatever usage they have planned for their nuclear weapons arsenal. This is not because Secretary of State Kerry is intentionally permitting this farce to occur with his being a willing accomplice. He likely believes that he and the team selected are working towards a comprehensive agreement that will prevent the Iranians from developing and building nuclear weapons. Of course there is the possibility that President Obama and those working with the Iranians are all knowingly working a grand deception. Those believing such a conspiracy existing are beyond skeptical and possibly beyond cynical and into the range of conspiracy theorists who find monsters, intrigues, schemings, duplicities and deceits of every nature lurking everywhere in our world and especially in those places where actions by their government and even more so when their government is dealing with other governments and the more governments the more conspiracies they can believe. I envy such people as they live in a world of scheming and intrigues at every turn; it must be fascinating with options beyond calculations. Me, I try to limit myself to one or two conspiracy theories per week as I find enough need for antacids at that level of cunning treacherous inane insanity.

 

When it comes to the Iranian P5+1 talks we do not need to imagine conspiracies or trickery as there is sufficient reality to keep one’s mind reeling from the levels of absurdity. The Iranian P5+1 talks have been a part of President Obama’s foreign policy where it has been his hope to negotiate a rapprochement with the Mullahs and leadership of Iran bringing them into the light, so to speak, much in the way that Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon pioneered relations with mainland China. Unfortunately for President Obama, unlike China which was seeking a path into the community of nations, Iran has a totally different dream where they lead the newly unified Islamic world of Shiite Muslims into the great conflagration which will bring the return of the Twelfth Imam and the inevitable Islamic universal rule over the Earth forever in unity, peace, tranquility and perfection as defined by the Quran. The newest intrigue came recently when a journalist, who had close ties presumably with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani running the media campaign which many claim was instrumental in his rise to the Presidency, arrive in Lausanne, Switzerland to cover the negotiations surprised the world and sought asylum defecting from Iran. The Journalist named Amir Hossein Motaghi in an interview with an opposition channel from London claiming not to see any sense pursuing the profession of journalist since he only wrote what he was told and not to do honest reporting. But he had far more interesting information, which many immediately jumped upon as convincing evidence of a conspiracy, when he harshly criticized the American role in the talks was solely to convince the other nations of the P5+1, France, Britain, Germany, China and Russia, to accept the Iranian demands in forming the agreement. He also presumably revealed another conspiracy in that a good number of the Iranian negotiating team are reporters dispatched to assure that the only news being reported in Iran meets with the government approval. Hopefully he does not expect that part of his story to shock too many people but his report that the United States is working with Iran and has taken the role of easing the Iranian preferred agreement through the other western nations as Russia and China are not likely to disagree with such wording of an agreement. The proof will come either at the completion of the negotiations in the wording of the final agreement, not even remotely any framework, or when Iran uses a nuclear weapon either in a test or in an actual attack on another nation.

 

There is one other aspect of the worth of any agreement, and that is the intent of the signatories now and onto future rulers. Should anybody decide to ignore the agreement, either on the Iranian side or a future President of the United States deciding that they are not bound by the agreement, then it dies a quick and merciful death. That is the one item which nobody other than the people in question can answer and that is such a remote probability as to make for some additional conspiracy theories. While I am not privileged to know any of these schemes, I can guess that just as many claim perfidy by President Obama, ignorance by Secretary of State Kerry, and differing levels of deceit and dishonesty. The interesting thing is that there are numerous people, some holding high national offices, who are predicting the inevitability for Iran attaining nuclear weapons despite any agreement which might be signed at the end of the negotiations, should such an end ever come to fruition. That is the biggest problem with these negotiations as the existence of a term which is defined in the writings of the Quran named taqiyya (Arabic: طاقية) which allows Muslims to hide their true intentions when doing so is required to advance conditions facilitating the advance of Islamic policies or to give the individuals and those they represent or function with an advantage by pretense, dissimulation or outright lying. This could potentially make any agreement made with the Iranians worthless in reality if they are able to deceive about their intents and sign anything with the intent of completely ignoring the terms and limitations of that treaty. When you partner in negotiations believes that it is perfectly moral and virtuous to deceive you and conceal their intents and even define items to mean exactly the opposite or mean anything other than your understanding, then the wording of any agreement is worthless. This was the problem with the 1938 Munich agreement which eventually cost Europe the ultimate price, a price they are still reaping the rewards of that mistake. I fear if the negotiations with Iran produce similar results, the world will be unable to hold up under the ramifications of deceit in these talks.

 

Another word and concept that should be taken into consideration is Hudna (Arabic هدنة) as its definition is vitally important, especially if the Iranians are looking at this as such a treaty, then we know that it can only be expected to apply for a decade at the longest. Perhaps this is why the major stipulations of the framework are set to expire after ten years. If that was the reasoning behind such a limitation, then why was that not mentioned as it would have been the perfect excuse for the limitation. Maybe there are too many coincidences or maybe we are being denied all the pertinent information, but there are too many things which are suspicious about the framework that beg for an explanation to just let things go by without questions being asked and answers given. Maybe we are all becoming too cynical and suspicious leading us to read more into trying to explain things which will be explained as the final agreement is laid out. The last item that is really worth demanding an explanation is why this agreement will be reached and affirmed by a back door to force it on the American public. Having the treaty affirmed by the United Nations and not through Congress does place a dark cloud of suspicion over the deliberations, the seeming near blackout with information being carefully released to the public and all the secrecy just screams for us to look out and demand some of that transparency we were promised when President first ran and won office in 2008 as the lack of same also leads solely to public suspicions. Just this once open the doors and windows and allow the light of day to shine on everything as what do you have to lose as you are in the final two years or is this the final surrender in your plan to remake America and her place in the world. I sure hope this is not a total cover-up for allowing the Iranians to gain nuclear weapons so they can become the world’s hegemonic power in the Middle East, as that has to be one of the worst betrayals of the free world in history. If that is your plan for your legacy, then you will receive a special place in history, the place of the singular President who brought on the final conflagration that Albert Einstein claimed would cause the next war after that to be fought with sticks and stones. I promise you that is not the remembrance you should desire as it will cause the memory of your name to be even worse than that of Benedict Arnold or Guy Fawkes and be the President that sold out the world and all sense and reason simply seeking a legacy. What a legacy that will make.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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1 Comment »

  1. Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.

    Like

    Comment by OyiaBrown — April 7, 2015 @ 8:19 AM | Reply


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