The first and most important item which our friends in the United States, and for those in the Congress who wish to oppose the Iran deal in the most effective manner still available, is they all need to understand that the United Nations Security Council Resolution has forced the hand of the United States as it passed and was enacted by the United Nations which is binding on the United States as well as the rest of the P5+1 nations and also on the European Union and all the member nations of the United Nations. Thanks to President Obama immediate actions the Congress has been basically relegated impotent when it comes to preventing the adoption of the Iran nuclear deal. Additionally, pursuing rejection of the deal against the Presidential veto, which President Barack Hussein Obama had guaranteed, is an act of pure futility and will simply open those supporting such a move to ridicule when they fail to override the Presidential veto. Even should they override the veto, the President still has the United Nations Security Council vote to implement the end to sanctions and thus again much of the media pointing out the futile waste of time and taxpayer monies by the Republicans and those select Democrats who will meet opposition backed by the party as they face what we here at BTC refer to as the Senator Joe Lieberman treatment. President Obama has taken every possible step to minimize, or even eliminate, the avenues available to the Congress or even the American people from denying the stipulation in the Iranian Nuclear Deal to terminate the sanctions placed on Iran by the United States. So, if anything the Congress can do to prevent the elimination of the existing sanctions, what should they be doing concerning the Iran Nuclear Deal and all its ramifications.
The one thing that might be to the advantage of the Congress might be instead of passing legislation killing the Iran Nuclear Deal as currently in progress, would be to allow the President to have his celebration but to not feed his triumph by passing legislation just to have President Obama veto it in an in your face mode and very publically using the media to emphasize his victory over those luddites and their feeble attempts to prevent moving forward as the Iranian Nuclear Deal allows. Simply do absolutely nothing. That is correct, nothing. Simply allow the discussion over the Iran Nuclear Deal to die a natural death and give the President a temporary victory and prepare to do something constructive and effective. Wait about six weeks until all the fervor dies down and even the longest attention spans have moved to another subject, perhaps Hilary’s e-mails, or Bernie Sanders poll numbers or whatever any of the almost dozen and a half Republican candidates have done to advance or serve a coup de grace on their campaign and may as well pack it up and better luck next time. That may not even take the full six weeks, but wait six weeks just so most everyone will believe that any new sanctions, even if they resemble the previous sanctions, as if anybody would be so knowledgeable to tell, are something being addressed over some great new information about the Iranians breaking their agreement and thus the move to new sanctions. I am sure if one were to discreetly inquire of the Israelis to provide any new information which could be used to grab the attention of the average American, something not overly technical but still a few sprinkles of scientific terms and a few ominous descriptions should be sufficient to give any hearing exactly the force and urgency required for a quick debate and vote. Applying new sanctions, not reapplying the old sanctions that the President so opposed, but new sanctions brought against new violations by Iran in their nuclear program requiring these new sanctions should be an easier sell and would also circumvent the United Nations Security Council Resolution as that was on the old sanctions and not others going forward. Then lobby and get sufficient Democrats’ votes to add to all Republican Congressional members’ votes allowing those Democrats who are hesitant to vote their conscience once there are sufficient votes assuring the new sanctions pass with a veto proof majority.
There should also be efforts to try and get the assurance from members of Congress such that if the President were to oppose the legislation and insult the Congress or otherwise be demeaning in his treatment rather than simply vetoing the legislation quietly and returning it to Congress with his reason for using his veto, then gain their assist in overriding any veto used as a weapon to insult Congress. One could even attempt to gain additional assistance in passing the legislation should the President take overt initiatives to attempt and belittle Congress or threaten any Democrat or others who are supporting new sanctions. If there has to be a fight over sanctions on Iran, make the fight about actual sanctions which are actually able to be applied to the Iranian Nuclear Program. The sanctions could even be targeted should Iran be found to avoiding IAEA inspections or seen to be utilizing every delaying tactic to deny snap inspections or otherwise working to circumvent the terms and stipulations of the Nuclear Deal, something which very likely will be suspected within a few months after the finalization and acceptance of the terms. As the Iranians pose greater and greater resistance against speedy and immediate inspections and refusal to inspection of sites despite sufficient announced inspections schedule then passing new sanctions, should “snap back” sanctions prove impossibly, should be the answer which even President Obama should support, and if not eventually public pressures will either force the President’s hand or that of the necessary members of Congress to override any veto from the White House. Forget kicking a dead horse and instead run down new threats which are sure to come from the Iranian nuclear program in the ensuing months.
Further, the Iranian nuclear program is far from the only activity being pursued by the Iranians which could bring undo attention from Congress as they arm many various terrorist or rebellious groups throughout the Middle East. Then there are the constant threats to Israel and the United States, the attempted subversions against Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Lebanon, Kurdish areas, the GCC nations (Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf) and likely far more proliferate meddling once the initial inflowing of funds from the cancellation of the current sanctions and the increased income from new oil and pistachio sales. The reality may be that Iran and new Middle East turmoil may be the surprise influence on the United States elections as Iranian interference could easily begin to take violent and unpredictable turns. Iranian influence arming Hamas could result in Hamas and other supporting terror groups to be instructed to, instead of starting another rocket war with Israel, overthrow the Arab governing bodies in Judea and Samaria. Only then would they be loosed to start a terror war from both the east and the southwest against Israel. Another possibility is that Iran could place sufficient numbers of troops, predominantly from the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) in Syria and central and southern Iraq and after destroying the Islamic State then turn their forces on the Kurds or Jordan. Such an assault in any direction would depend on the United States elections and seeing if the new President will turn away from isolationist governance which would bring to an end any Islamic unfettered conquests. Only time will tell whether or not Islamic expansion will come to a definitive end once President Obama leaves office. Exactly what direction Iran will take in the next year plus until the new President is sworn into office is anyone’s guess. With a large influx of funds and their already having placed orders for the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems, one-hundred-fifty Chinese Chengdu J-10 sophisticated jet fighters with Israeli avionics, two-hundred-fifty Russian highly-advanced Sukhoi-Su-30MK1 fighters as well as one-hundred IL78 MKI aircraft refueling tankers they have already bought themselves a modern Air Force. What other purchases Iran makes in the next few months may give a better lead as to what their immediate plans might be in the long run.
Beyond the Cusp