Beyond the Cusp

December 19, 2015

What the IAEA Closure of Their Iran Investigations Really Meant

Perhaps we should be starting with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) Director General Yukiya Amano statements which pertained to the IAEA’s verification of Iranian nuclear research and development including answers to previous questionable activities and current activities including possible secretive research into weapons production.

 

 

 

 

We realize that you played that ten, fifteen, thirty times and still he said almost nothing other than we wash our hands of the Iran issue and give them a clean bill of health and for more read our nice, dry and hard to read report, if he said that much. So, you ask hoping we have read the report and you will not need to read the report, all sixteen pages, what did it all say? Well, we could answer off the top of our heads, as probably all of you could, it will say Iran is clean now though they may not have been completely honest in the past; we believe them completely now and there is almost nothing to worry about unless they are lying; but we don’t think they are lying, like we would admit we did even if we were sure they were lying, but you will have to trust that we trusted them. Oh, you really want us to go through the report and take out the pertinent parts, FINE! We’ll do so! Trust there is more article after the summary which can wait until you have the time and nothing more interesting to do. Scroll down and we’ll put a nice picture separating the final writings there to flag you down, so look for the flags.

 

The following were the actual quotes which may or may not clarify their findings and positions, but we figured that was their intentions.

 

“From 2002 onwards, the Agency became increasingly concerned about the possible existence in Iran of undisclosed nuclear related activities involving military related organizations, including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile. Reports by the Director General identified outstanding issues related to possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme and the actions required of Iran to resolve these.”
The information indicated that Iran had carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device. The information also indicated that prior to the end of 2003, these activities took place under a structured programme, and that some activities may still have been ongoing.
 
There was mention that their information came from a wide number of sources, another way of saying not to blame them, but just in case there was anything brilliant in the report they said that some came from their own efforts, and then another disclaimer which has to be quoted, “from a number of Member States, including Iran itself.” From here on it is quotes unless in {} or obvious commentary by us. And it will be obvious.
“Between January 2012 and May 2013, the Agency and Iran held ten rounds of talks in Vienna and Tehran, aimed at reaching agreement on a ‘structured approach’…no concrete results were achieved during those talks. …”
 
Framework for Cooperation
 
On 11 November 2013, the Agency and Iran signed a ‘Joint Statement on a Framework for Cooperation.’
{We could now quote a whole load of legalese describing their agreement and all the trust and measures and validations and verifications and our eyes started crossing and glazing over.}
 
Security Council Resolution 2231
 
On 20 July 2015, the Security Council adopted resolution 2231 (2015), in which, inter alia, it reaffirmed that Iran “shall cooperate fully as the IAEA requests to be able to resolve all outstanding issues, as identified in IAEA reports.”
 
Implementation of the Road-map
 
More Gobbled-y-Goop
 
Methodology
 
More Gobbled-y-Goop
 
Area Assessments
 
Gobbled-y-Goop but here it is in case it might be important, like FoR ReAL!
 
As previously reported, the Agency has focused its analysis of Iran’s nuclear programme on an acquisition path involving high enriched uranium (HEU). Based on indicators observed by the Agency in connection with Iran’s nuclear activities, the Agency’s work has concentrated on an analysis pertinent to the development of an HEU implosion device.
 
Past Resolutions of the Board of Governors and the Security Council
 
The United Nations Security Council has affirmed that the steps required by the Board of Governors in its resolutions are binding on Iran. Between 2006 and 2010, six Security Council resolutions… In particular, in its resolution of June 2010…concerns about the possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme… all sites, equipment, persons and documents requested by the Agency.
 
Following the issuance of… essential for Iran and the Agency to intensify their dialogue… providing clarifications regarding those issues.
Further to the Director General’s report of August 2012, the Board of Governors, in its resolution of September 2012… restore international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme.
 

Efforts to address the Agency’s concerns since November 2011

 
Structured Approach
 
Between January 2012 and May 2013, the Agency and Iran held ten rounds of talks in Vienna and Tehran… a new approach aimed at ensuring the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme should be developed.
 
Framework for Cooperation
 
On 11 November 2013, the Agency and Iran signed a ‘Joint Statement on a Framework for Cooperation’… proceed with such activities in a step by step manner.
 
Within the Framework for Cooperation… practical measures and technical discussions had been held with the Agency concerning the other two.
On 14 July 2015, the Director General and the Vice-President of Iran and President of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran… strengthen their cooperation and dialogue aimed at the resolution, by the end of 2015, of all past and present outstanding issues that had not already been resolved by the Agency and Iran. The actions agreed under the Road-map are listed in Annex I. {Great, now we need to read Annex I}
Security Council Resolution 2231
 
On 20 July 2015, the Security Council adopted resolution 2231 (2015), in which, inter alia, it reaffirmed that Iran “shall cooperate fully as the IAEA requests to be able to resolve all outstanding issues, as identified in IAEA reports.”
 
Implementation of the Road-map
 
In the Road-map, the Agency and Iran agreed to aim to…the Agency had assessed to be “overall, credible”, as well as information received…which further contributed to the analysis contained in that Annex.
 
As agreed in the Road-map, on 15 August 2015, Iran provided to the Agency its explanations in writing and related documents, on past and present outstanding issues. On 8 September 2015, the Agency submitted questions to Iran on ambiguities regarding the information provided…as a basis for seeking clarification; the Agency’s review of information available…any implications regarding the indicators; and the Agency’s questions.
To remove the ambiguities regarding the information…particular locations of interest to the Agency…15 October 2015.
 
On 20 September 2015, the Director General and Deputy Director General and Head of the Department of Safeguards visited the particular location at the Parchin site of interest to the Agency.
 
All the activities in the Road-map were implemented in accordance with the agreed schedule and, on 24 November 2015, the Agency and Iran held a “wrap up technical meeting” in Vienna.
 
Methodology
 
In November 2011, the Agency provided its “analysis of the information available to it in the context of relevant indicators of the existence or development of processes associated with nuclear-related activities, including weaponization.” Since November 2011, the Agency has acquired more information through activities under the Framework for cooperation, including the Road-map and the JPA, through the Agency’s own efforts, and from Member States, including Iran. As additional information has become available to the Agency, the Agency has been able to refine its analysis of possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme.
 
In order to perform the final assessment, the Agency has analyzed all the information available to it in relation to each of the 12 areas, as set out in the 2011 Annex. The Agency has also used the same information to gain an understanding of the whole picture through consideration of the nature, amount and coherence of the information over time.
 
Area Assessments
 
As previously reported…concentrated on an analysis pertinent to the development of an HEU implosion device.
 
Programme management structure
 
{Iran was using multiple agencies and departments and other subterfuges to conceal their real purposes which we recognized sort of; spread over four tedious paragraphs}
 
Procurement activities
 
As previously reported, Iran has stated that the AEOI encountered difficulties with procurement… {poor babies} …Ministry of Defence Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL), thereby disguising the final user.
 
The Agency also had indications of instances of procurements and attempted procurements of items with relevance, inter alia, to the development of a nuclear explosive device. The Agency does not have information regarding any such procurement attempts after 2007.
 
During discussions with the Agency…Iran confirmed its earlier statements that…made a procurement enquiry about a specific high speed camera, the camera had been for a conventional purpose and, ultimately, Iran had not purchased it. Iran also reiterated its earlier denial that a named company had attempted to acquire high-speed switches.
 
The Agency has not received additional information on this topic since the 2011 Annex.
 
Nuclear material acquisition
 
{Technical garbles which is too rich to summarize as the claims and counters are simply beyond belief and other beyond credulity and the rest far too technical}
 
Nuclear components for an explosive device
 
{More technical garbles}
 
Detonator development
 
{More technical garbles}
 
Initiation of high explosives and associated experiments
 
{More technical garbles which only one of us understands}
 
Hydrodynamic experiments
 
{More technical garbles}
 
Modelling and calculations
 
{More technical garbles}
 
Neutron initiator
 
{Technical garbles but you have to love discussions about nuclear physics}
 
Conducting a test
 
{Technical garbles and as it said, it’s just a test, a physics test}
 
Integration into a missile delivery vehicle
 
{Technical garbles all about miniaturization and the rest is nuts and bolts}
 
Fuzing, arming and firing system
 
{Technical garbles and no there is nothing about detonation-cord}
 
Overall Assessment
 
This overall assessment results from the analysis of all the information available to the Agency in relation to each of the 12 areas, as set out in the 2011 Annex.
 
{More technical garbles}
 
Summary
 
Political and technical Gobbled-y-Goop

 

 

 

Let’s Run Them Up Any Flag Pole and See Who Salutes Them Smartly Showing Your Love of Freedom and Feel Free to Add Your Flag if the Moment Grabs You as You See This Pair of the Flags for Freedom

Let’s Run Them Up Any Flag Pole
and See Who Salutes Them Smartly
Showing Your Love of Freedom
and Feel Free to Add Your Flag
if the Moment Grabs You as You
See This Pair of the Flags for Freedom

 

 

Much of the reports have centered on that the IAEA has found no indications of diversions or of extraordinary mining in or near known uranium mines and that there probably has been no developmental steps taken beyond feasibility and assuring of having acquired the technical ability to produce nuclear weaponry of the nature and suitability the Iranians desired, whatever all that really means. Anyone who expected an arm of the United Nations run largely by third world officials and nuclear physicists whose highest desire was to travel around the world either inspecting third world nuclear sites or attempting to inspect nuclear weapons programs of nations who would just as soon kill as look upon their own people, so you can guess what the worth of an IAEA inspector is worth. The IAEA is also heavily political and not exactly all that enamored with the Western States or Israel and likely more guided by the membership of the General Assembly than the five permanent members in the Security Council. Further, if the people working for the average large city are fairly incompetent and state officials make the city workers look like geniuses, while Federal employees are legendary for their lack of ability, of course all of these have exceptions such as any government worker reading BTC, so you can imagine what any world employees can be in the competence department. The one thing which can be said is the United Nations workers for all of their agencies have some of the most difficult and dangerous jobs when working out in the world as they are often not exactly appreciated by the governments of the nations where they are assigned and often face threats of death simply for attempting to serve others unselfishly and many probably get abuses which they do not deserve. Imagine attempting to distribute aid and food and other sustenance to the people under a dictator who would just as soon see them dead and wants to steal the food supplies and distribute it to his security forces and army which keep him in power and then it becomes no surprise that often the aid is simply unloaded from the ship or aircraft and then left for the dictator to distribute as he desires because it is not worth being murdered in a futile effort. There are reasons that the United States sends troops with their aid shipments. It is true that the United States military should not be used for meals on wheels but sometimes they may be necessary for those performing the meals on wheels distribution to be allowed to actually move the aid. The world is a far from perfect place, something many of us forget or would rather not face as long as it does not affect us and may we continue to live where life is not endangered just because we hold an opinion which others are willing to kill us over.

 

Going to another set of thoughts, something we do here often and what else can be said about an IAEA report we all knew would be a whitewash of the Iranian nuclear program anyways and that is what we likely got. The hope now is that we never reap the ill rewards which are possible should Iran produce and use nuclear weapons or that ever there should come a nuclear war which encompasses a number of nuclear armed nations and a general exchange of nuclear weapons causes a runaway ecological disaster having planetary effects which could only result in consequences too horrid to imagine. Such an event would make most of those post apocalypse movies appear optimistic with the likely exception of “On the Beach” depicted. That was presumably what the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) was designed to prevent and the reason for the IAEA was originally enacted and initiated, but that was when the United Nations member nations were restricted.

 

That was before the fateful decision to allow all nations to enter the United Nations as all nations were equal and should have an equal vote in such a body and the General Assembly was opened to every nation and dictator who desired equal footing with every other nation. Fortunately the original nations who were tasked with fashioning the United Nations kept veto power in the Security Council for the five nuclear powers of the time, or their closest allies thus the United States, Russia, China, Britain, and France were given veto power in the Security Council, the only body which could order the use of military force. That too will soon be surrendered as the world will decide there is nothing special about those five nations and everybody has to be equal. Once the veto for the permanent members has been erased then the seats on the Security Council will be expanded and the fixed memberships will either be expanded beyond reason or abolished making all nations equal in all things and then the United Nations will devolve into chaos and soon will disintegrate under its own equality as the more equal numbers of dictators vote the democracies out of existence under threat of war, of course, after they have demanded and received nuclear technology including weaponization because all nations are of equal value so they should have equal military power and technologies. We will learn that merit has value but it will probably be learned too late. Equality only works between nations who agree on the sanctity of life, have similar value systems and have a free and open society; otherwise you end up with almost two hundred nations who agree on nothing except that there are well over one hundred who wish to drag the wealth from the most wealthy nations even if it destroys the geese with the golden eggs because they want all the golden eggs for themselves in the name of equality. Such a United Nations will be the igniter for a terrible conflagration. Let us pray that the nations with dignity of the human spirit to protect realize their special place and realize it is not rubbing elbows in equality in the putrid bog where leaders disregard or enslave their populations as in such a swamp all sink into the teeming cauldron of inhumanity and such can only work to the detriment of the world as there is enough heartlessness in the world that without freedom loving nations mutually protecting those values all human value will be lost. That is the number one reason for the free world to realize their precious gift and the value of going to whatever lengths required to protect the freedoms from those who would denigrate all human life trampling underfoot the freedoms which by the grace of all that is holy came from the values which have flourished in the Western World and a limited set of other nations who must remain free at all costs. Freedom once lost is almost never regained and especially if it dissolves from the entire planet in a swarming over the free world of a demographic explosion initially necessitated due to a demographic implosion largely fueled by a loss of faith in Hashem.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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2 Comments »

  1. […] This admission simply echoes the actions by Tehran which has now made two test launches of ballistic missiles which would have definitively been forbidden by any deal admitted to exist by any of the Western Nations as well as the United Nations interpretations of the agreement, but nobody appears to be rearing up in reaction to these tests. There has been no ‘snapback’ of sanctions and the releasing of funds as theoretically agreed upon by western Nations in any version of a deal is proceeding along on schedule. Are we the only ones who seem concerned that there appears to be an agreement to free the dogs of nuclear ambitions in Iran while obliging the West to release the funds and remove all sanctions which might have proven to be an impediment and chaining the United States and European nations to back the Russian, Chinese and Iranian desires for business as usual as if there is not a care in the world? A quick check of news stories and it seems the most recent testing of another nuclear delivery capable continental ballistic missile, the most powerful yet and a decent sign that Iran is aiming for Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capabilities and is going at such capabilities with some vigor does concern any number of responsible adults. Unfortunately the closest the White House has come to a responsible adult has been United Nations Ambassador Samantha Power who stated at a Congressional hearing last week, “discussions are a form of U.N. action.” So, apparently the White House left Congress and themselves no actual control over sanctions and thus the possible ‘snapback’ is solely in the hands of the United Nations where such is an impossibility and even if the United States acted, theirs would necessarily be a whole new set of sanctions which are presumably forbidden by the presumed deal which is no deal and the White House would necessarily, as they have stated, veto any such sanctions. So as it currently sits, Iran will receive their $150 billion in unfrozen assets within the next six months, can test missiles to their hearts’ delight and all are to proceed as if there are sanctions on Iran when in reality the sanctions are on the Western Powers making sanctions near to impossible and now even the IAEA has officially surrendered before the Iranian games of guile as we reported recently in What the IAEA Closure of Their Iran Investigations Really Meant. […]

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    Pingback by Why Iranian Nuclear Program Matters | Beyond the Cusp — December 20, 2015 @ 3:15 AM | Reply

  2. Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.

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    Comment by OyiaBrown — December 20, 2015 @ 7:59 AM | Reply


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