Beyond the Cusp

August 8, 2017

Future of Worry and Present of Threats

 

Temple Mount, just those two words bring up thoughts of rioting youth and terrorism murdering Israeli police and citizens. Ask anyone and they will tell you that the Israeli Arab conflict is one of the most difficult political problems on the planet. That thinking can and will never solve this conflict. There exists absolutely no political solution to this problem. The reason is this is not a political problem. More on this as we get further into the article.

 

Iran, this is also a political threat according to President Trump and most of the advisors and experts. Iran is attempting to take over much of the Middle East with control already stretching from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. They have all but taken over the southern half of Iraq, all of Lebanon and are working to take over much of Syria and appear to be succeeding with Russian assistance and the use of Lebanese Hezballah which for all intents and purposes is the Army of Lebanon plus what remains of the Syrian Army that remains loyal to Bashir al-Assad. Iran has been working towards a nuclear weapon and nobody can be absolutely assured that they are keeping to the supposed agreement made with President Obama. Most do not even know what the agreement between the nations was as each copy of the terms appears to be different. There are the Russian, European, and United States versions and nobody knows for sure what the Iranian agreement states. Iran has made remarkable progress on their missile technology and has been known to be working with North Korea which has to trouble everyone. The world will be seeking a political solution to this set of threats as well. This also is not a political problem.

 

North Korea and Kim Jong-un is probably the most pressing problem currently as he is about to go beyond the cusp and actually have a solid fueled ICBM capable of striking anywhere on the planet. Such a system is probably less than six months away and by that time he will most definitely have a nuclear EMP device (electro-magnetic pulse) capable of being placed atop just such a missile and taking out an electrical grid the size of North America or Europe. Further, he will likely have at least a nuclear device capable of decimating a city if not a thermonuclear device capable of destroying an entire metropolitan area. Some political solution is also being sought to this threat. This also is not a political problem.

 

China has been expanding her control in the South China Sea and threatening to take over disputed islands claimed by Japan and the Philippines. China has also refused to take any stand towards placing some control on Kim Jong-un. Many believe that this is due to China hoping that the trouble being sewn by North Korea will take the pressure and concentration of President Trump off the moves being exercised by China. This is probably not a wise move by China as President Trump is perfectly capable of addressing more than one problem at a time just as he is capable of causing more than one problem at a time. China, fortunately, is largely a political problem but also shares some of the properties of these other situations.

 

So, what is this magical and mysterious central concept that is not political at the center of these problems? In a single word, it is supremacy. For Iran and the Arabs, it is religious supremacy. For Kim Jong-un it is his view of himself as more than just a man but more of an idealized and worshiped leader who has abilities far above his enemies and other mere mortal beings. For China, it is the fact that China has been a world hegemon off and on for centuries and has always considered themselves superior to other nations and add in the Communist doctrines which tell that Communism will defeat Capitalism and the West given sufficient time, and time has always been in the favor of China. Where in the west we count our seconds and minutes, in China they count centuries and millennia. This has and still is an advantage as China operates on an entirely different view where they do not need to win today or tomorrow or in the next ten or hundred years. They believe that their patience and belief that their children or their children will one day rule the world will win them any contest.

 

So, as each of these conflicts is about supremacy of some sort, how does one become the victor? Let us take these situations in reverse order and start with China. There is no defeating the Chinese, only proving preeminent for now. If you can show China a strong front which is obviously a match if not superior to their current ability, China will lay back and wait building slowly but inexorably towards closing any gap or perceived deficiency. Currently China is building her Navy adding submarines and aircraft carriers. These are currently smaller and less capable than those of the United States, but China is rapidly making gains in the production of these vessels. This should not present a problem in the immediate as the United States can produce these as they wish as they just launched a new super carrier recently, the USS George H.W Bush CVN-77, which was the tenth of these super-carriers, three of which are currently stationed in or around the Sea of Japan and right off the coast of North Korea and China and rather close to the South China Sea when one considers the range of their aircraft (see image below). Where China will have difficulty keeping abreast of the United States militarily is simple, the United States spends more on her defense budget than China, Russia, India, Israel, Brazil, Britain, and Saudi Arabia combined. China knows they may be the eight-hundred-pound gorilla in the western Pacific, Sea of Japan, South China Sea and surrounding waters, but the United States is the ten-ton gorilla anywhere on the globe whenever she chooses to be so and the area just off China and North Korea currently has that privilege. China will rest and dream of a few centuries down the line but right now had best be concerned with India which is poised to become the most populous nation within a decade or two surpassing China. That one-child policy has really come to bite China.

 

USS George H.W Bush CVN-77

USS George H.W Bush CVN-77

 

Next is North Korea where Kim Jong-un is perfecting his ICBMs and his nuclear warheads for immediate future use against the United States. What people need remember is that the United States and North Korea are at war as are North and South Korea with one another. The United States and South Korea stand opposed to North Korea across an area which resembles a World War I no man’s land and both sides take casualties every so often just to punctuate the distrust and animosity. North Korea has sufficient artillery and rocket launchers including multiple-launch rocket vehicles (MLRV) to completely decimate the entirety of the greater Seoul metropolitan area. That would amount to millions of casualties and the decimation of the South Korean economy. This has been their threat for years and it has worked as planned. Now North Korea is on the verge of a new threat, nuclear annihilation to any city on Earth or an even more devastating weapons, a super EMP device which is a low yield but dirty nuclear device with a yield under twenty-five kilotons but which produces a massive EMP wave which destroys virtually all functioning electronics being active at the time. This includes the massive power transformers used in the electrical grid. If these are not heavily shielded and hardened against such a device they will explode, causing fires and massive outages of electrical power, quite possibly much of the North American or European grids. There are very limited numbers of companies which manufacture these transformers, as demand for them is proportional to the expansion of the world electrical grids which moves at a steady but slow rate, all things considered. Such a device could put a nation like the United States without adequate electrical generation and delivery capability for as long as a decade or even two resulting in a loss of over half if not three-quarters of the population. If such a device were detonated over Kansas City, the entirety of the central United States and reaching well into Canada would be affected. That is the threat the United States and potentially Europe face from North Korea as soon as they have the rocket and a warhead version making such a device deliverable, something they could already posses. There is no delicate means for addressing this threat short of decapitating the entirety of the North Korean military command and structure and then having South Korea take as much of the peninsula as China will allow them. It is very possible that the Chinese will not interfere in such an instance, as they would not care to absorb the problems economically which exists in North Korea.

 

Demilitarized Zone Between North Korea and South Korea

Demilitarized Zone Between North Korea and South Korea

 

Iran is fortunately not an immediate problem. One such problem is sufficient. Iran though is a growing problem which in some means resembles North Korea. The leadership of Iran feels they, as a whole, are superior to other people as they are the most learned in the Quran which gives them all the knowledge necessary to win. They have the ideology of Islam which promises them that Allah will make them the conquerors of the entire planet and all that their god commands. If life was found on a distant world and the Islamic peoples were aware of such and believed that to be a truth, then they would also expect to conquer that planet and subjugate and eventually convert or murder everyone. The main problem Iran has is Islam itself. Iran is Shiite Islam which is a small percentage of Muslims while Sunni Islam is easily ten times their numbers. Of course should Iran gain nuclear missiles and nuclear warheads, that might change rapidly. Then akin, if Iran developed nuclear weapons one can bet that Saudi Arabia would simply purchase a number of warheads sufficient to remove Iran and her allies from the map and then do so. Next to North Korea, Islam on Islam internecine warfare is the second highest risk of nuclear war breaking out on our globe. The most likely is between Saudi Arabia and Iran and should that occur and the Saudi Arabia manage to lose that exchange, the next would be Egypt who would likely ally so fast with Pakistan and likely arrange the launch to come from Pakistan as they are closer to Iran anyways. Egypt would waste no time getting aid from the United States and possibly even seek assistance from, of all places, Israel to intercept anything headed for Egypt as well as defending herself. Iran may soon require being toppled, something which a wise United States State Department would already be working on. Unfortunately the United States State Department has never really shown much of a proclivity for doing the right thing ever since World War I, they were even almost on the wrong side of World War II except the rest of the United States chose better.

 

Finally, we get to the Arabs and Israel. This is a very basic and simple situation. The Arabs are Muslims and the Israelis are Jews. To the Arab mind this is a simple problem, they are Islam, the sole true religion on earth and Israel are the Jews, the most contemptable religion on earth. Are there any questions after that description? There are only two results in this situation, either the Jews are annihilated or the Arabs go away or are so subjugated and defeated that even the sight of a yarmulke makes them shake with terrorizing, gripping fear. The problem is the world refuses to allow Israel to win such a victory and demands Israel make concessions to repair a political situation. Every concession Israel makes just has the Arabs believing Israel is frightened of them and reinforces their sense of superiority making the solution that much more distant. Should Israel be permitted to go through the Arab areas, take all the terrorists out and deal with them in a primitive and brutal manner, the problem would end the next sunrise. Even if the Jordanian Arabs were to get their independence from the Jordanian King and invite the Arabs to move to Jordan, they would still believe that they should conquer Israel as well. Only a defeat of the Arabs living within the lands promised Israel would end this conflict for the time being. There is only one thing which would solve this problem permanently, but the world is nowhere near ready to hear such an idea, though that time is soon to come or the world is in worse shape than we thought. Islam will require having its wings clipped and clipped severely such that the sound of a jet engine or the sound of tank tracks or a car motor sends then quivering to the furthest corner. Islam in several means is resurgent and will start to attempt conquest if not prevented through a display of actual willingness to prevent such an explosive force of destruction. Imagine terrorist attacks the globe over similar to what Israel faced in the Second Intifada and you have an idea of how such a war will soon progress. Israel has still to come to terms with this truth; the world is even further from this realization. There are some who see this such as John Bolton, Geert Wilders, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Brigitte Gabriel and a select group of others. The only hope is for the world to awaken before it becomes necessary for another World at War.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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1 Comment »

  1. Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.

    Like

    Comment by OyiaBrown — August 10, 2017 @ 7:18 AM | Reply


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