Beyond the Cusp

August 12, 2017

Trump and America Alone

 

The United States has not ever been known to be alone in the world with friends which can be counted on her two hands. Those days are almost upon us. Very soon the United States will be finding herself blamed for acting when she acts and for standing aside when she doesn’t act. She will start facing denunciations in the General Assembly of the United Nations by votes resembling those only Israel has faced before where 130 will vote to denounce her with maybe a dozen supporting America and the remainder abstaining and in the United Nations Security Council she will find only her own Veto will prevent her facing sanctions. Whenever the United States acts there will be accusations of unilateralism even when her actions are to rescue a nation from hostile acts of their neighbors. What could possibly bring on such condemnations? Well isn’t it obvious? Her own leftists and their NGO’s in their inevitable rush to try and discredit and destroy President Trump will result in their also discrediting the necessary actions he may soon be called upon to decide as certain things reach critical levels after being pushed aside for decades. These situations reaching these points, these deplorable stages, are doing so largely due to President after President kicking the can down the road because to act required somebody actually being the adult in the room and taking the responsibility of what would inevitable be an unpopular series of events.

 

This will burst upon the scene initially with probably facing down the North Korean menace Kim Jong-un and his ever-increasing threat which advances with each missile test. Most observers place his current level of threat lower than it actually is, a common thread in politics where avoiding bad news and terrible situations is often done by underestimating the possibilities. Currently, President Trump and his military are properly giving North Korea and its potential threats its rightful attention but they are likely to back away from confrontation if for no other reason than their knowledge of the firestorm which would follow any military action against the Kim regime. They probably already made the deal not to intervene in exchange for allowing one more set of sanctions just passed by the United Nations Security Council to work. If somebody could give us a reason why these sanctions will function with any superior results than the past five sets of sanctions since the armistice was signed in the early Eisenhower years, that would at least be amusing. The problems with these sanctions are the same as with the previous sanctions, North Korea largely trades with China and some with Russia and little else. These are the two nations which can be counted upon to ignore the sanctions after a brief period of observing them so as to grant them the appearance of working. Sanctions are not the magic tool for breaking the bond that China and Russia have with North Korea. For these two adversaries, North Korea is their arrow in the flank of the United States which seriously hampers the American image and drains off the attentions of the United States from their acts of belligerence. One will always pay attention to the leader threatening nuclear annihilation over those merely pressuring neighboring nations in order to increase their spheres of influence.

 

Map of Approximate Missile Ranges of North Korean Missiles

Map of Approximate Missile Ranges of North Korean Missiles

 

North Korea is soon to reach the point of no return with their having produced a viable and reliable two stage, solid-fueled ICBM and the thermonuclear warhead of five to ten megaton range, a real city-killer with the necessary accuracy to strike within a mile or two from the intended spot anywhere in the world. The advantage they will gain once their ICBM’s are solid-fueled is recognizably dire. Solid-fueled two stage ICBM’s, unlike their liquid-fueled missiles, are ready to be fired instantly by simply, as it is shown in the movies, pressing the large red button on the console (always placed next to the other red button which is for self-destruct of the station). The current liquid-fueled missiles take at least an hour to pump the fuel into the tanks where they also must be kept heavily chilled to avoid the launch becoming a detonation. Such a process is fairly easily picked up by satellites viewing the planet below and thus giving the United States ample warning to take actions either political, economic or military threat as well as preparing an interception under best possible conditions. Solid-fueled missiles simply are fired from their launcher, which in the case of North Korea, thanks to China for providing these, are on mobile launchers which means that their location could be anywhere within North Korea and often have escaped detection. This prevents having the right resources for an interception under best conditions available. This is why the threat from North Korea has, in our opinion, already reached the point where they are at having an advantage.

 

North Korean Missile Launcher Utilizing Chinese Trucks

North Korean Missile Launcher Utilizing Chinese Trucks

 

Unlike those whose responsibility is to give President Trump a picture where he still has the largest possible range of options still available, our assessment is that North Korea has tested their separation technology with their last four launches which were two stage missiles. This was the last remaining step to master before placing a solid fueled second stage, which they have already demonstrated, atop a similar sized first stage booster. That is the formula for a viable ICBM which is all solid-fueled and ready to fly within a moment’s notice. North Korea has had a viable Super EMP warhead for two years by now and they have proven to be capable of aiming a missile to strike the United States from the south coming into the Texas area where NORAD has a soft spot of minimal detection and intercept being designed primarily to prevent Russian attacks and having been adapted to include China but never to intercept a missile coming from the south. This has long been a deficiency the United States had left vulnerable as the cost of closing the circle was considered too high for the limited protection it was thought to provide, a purely political choice and another can kicked down the road. North Korea already has placed a satellite into such an orbit which could be dropped to the required low-earth orbit necessary for optimum EMP detonations currently and this satellite is of unknown function. Military experts have claimed it was much like Sputnik and was merely a proof of capability satellite and nothing sinister at all. Let us all hope they were correct.

 

North Korea likely has a mountable sized warhead which could easily deliver a Hiroshima sized or possibly larger warhead currently in their arsenal. Kim Jong-un may even have a small thermonuclear warhead available for launching. This is the point where it all depends on your faith in the abilities provided by his scientists. It would not make much sense for China to have provided mobile missile launchers for liquid-fueled missiles as it would have been equally illogical to provide such if Kim Jon-un was only going to be targeting South Korea or Japan, as is still being held as his only really viable target by some advisors. These locations could be targeted and struck well before anybody could intervene with the most simple of Kim Jong-un’s known arsenals. The North Koreans have had sufficient weaponry targeting Seoul, South Korea for over half a century initially using simply artillery and subsequently replacing rocket artillery with some missiles, most probably some version of guidable Scud, so as to strike particular targets such as hardened command and control and other bunkers. The targeting which Kim Jon-un has been waiting to have are reliable missiles with which he can target New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, Dallas, Washington D.C. and Colorado Springs with the Air Force Academy and central controls for NORAD.

 

Presumed China Provided North Korean Mobile Missile Carrier

Presumed China Provided North Korean Mobile Missile Carrier

 

The sole thing holding Kim Jon-un from any attack is two fold, first he lacks sufficient missiles to guarantee overwhelming any interception capabilities of the United States and he would prefer to make demands, painful demands, of the United States mainly but addressed to the world. The first demand will be for the United States to remove their bases and soldiers from South Korea. This will be demanded to prove to South Korea as well as Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan that they are basically on their own against North Korea and China. Should the United States approve such a move then Kim Jong-un will know that he has an appeaser to work with and he will continue. The next demand will be to South Korea where he will demand that the peninsula be united under a federation between himself and the President of South Korea and some form of united administration. That will be inconsequential as within weeks Kim Jong-un will have announced that he was granted sole leadership despite any governance that was initially signaled. Kim Jong-un is not the kind of person who shares anything, let alone absolute power. Then he will demand the sanction be removed, as his merger with South Korea should be proof that he is no danger to anybody, he used pure diplomacy for his takeover of the entire Korean peninsula. What he might do after that is anybody’s guess. Japan would be one logical next target, but that would not be a diplomatic move, as Japan would never agree no matter how much pressure the world placed upon them. So, the next step may as well be his swan song, the really big step, demands Security Council permanent status seat with the other nuclear powers because he deserves such respect. Whatever his demand, he will continue making more and more outrageous demands until finally somebody, likely the United States puts their foot down and says no to his demands. That is when he will appear to sulk and be forlorn while waiting for a sufficient period that he feels will have the United States relaxed and not expecting an attack. This is when he might actually be sufficiently unstable and believe that should he decapitate the United States leadership, then the United States might simply not respond and settle for licking their wounds and trying to recover.

 

This is why Kim Jong-un need be countered on the United States terms and not wait for him to become an actual threat. That leads us to President Trump and the current situation. President Trump currently has his hands tied until Kim Jong-un either carries out a nuclear test or another missile test this time using both stages being solid-fueled systems. This will prove his ability to launch on command instead of having an hours waiting for fueling for launch when ready, not immediate. With this proven technology, the United States will be on notice that Kim Jong-un will be readily capable of striking any number of targets potentially within the Continental United States, that would be CONUS Command, and possibly any target within the United States as well as Europe. Whatever the perceived and admitted abilities of North Korean missile technology, they are frighteningly close to their desired capability and already are capable of striking the United States with a devastating EMP device which could bring down most, if not all, of the North American electrical grid. We would call that a very definite threat to the well-being of every American as such a devastating strike would minimally kill three-quarters of the population of North America. Canada would also be direly adversely affected. This places President Trump with the unenviable decision of does he act now, before anything horrific occurs or does he wait for a provocation which nobody could fail to recognize and admit he acted according to the betterment of the American people or did he act as a warmonger seeking personal glory. We may as well face the reality of this situation. Should President Trump act to prevent any of the dire consequences of a nuclear capable Kim Jong-un, then the media, Congress and other world leaders and especially the United Nations and their army of NGO’s and Agencies will all unite to condemn the man who destroyed the peace solely for self-aggrandizement. And should President Trump wait until Kim Jong-un acts and attacks the United States then President Trump would be pillories as the President who did not have the foresight or the willingness to act in the face of impending danger and allowed the needless suffering of the people of Japan, South Korea or wherever Kim Jong-un ordered the strike and if it was the United States, all the more Trump will be condemned. If Kim Jong-un were to strike Japan and President Trump responds by attacking North Korea then he will be criticized if his attack is too large in scale or if it is considered insufficient in scale. The secret is if it leaves Kim Jong-un with any ability to strike further, then the attack proved to be insufficient and Trump is an incompetent. If, on the other hand, the attack decapitates North Korean military and political structure and removes all threats, then Trump is a warmonger bringing undue suffering to the people, the innocent people of North Korea. If then China were to take hold of most of North Korea, well, then Trump is an incompetent again for not seeing this inevitability and acting to prevent the Chinese from taking over the northern half of the Korean Peninsula and thus threatening South Korea even worse than Kim Jong-un had threatened them. If United States and South Korean troops enter the North and unite the peninsula, well then Trump did it for the land and to force democracy war upon North Korea without even asking them if they desired such. You basically get the idea, either he is a warmonger or he was unprepared or he was a warmonger just before he was unprepared or he is a warmonger land grabber. Whatever President Trump does about North Korea, or does not do about North Korea will prove to have been wrong in the immediate media coverage and in the halls of Congress. We predict that if President Trump were to take steps to replace Kim Jong-un and manage this without firing a single shot or missile and all of North Korea were hailing him as their savior, impeachment charges would be brought up in the House of Representatives on charges of unnecessarily involving the United States in regime change for no reason. Of course, if he waits and Washington D.C. becomes a target, then there likely will be no action from Congress, as they will be scrambling to get far enough from the Capital in the period they have between warning and strike. With the EMP scenario, Congress might meet and actually still have electricity as the coasts might survive such a strike, and they would most definitely be bringing impeachment even if they were doing so by candle light. The end result of any action or inaction on North Korea will be impeachment, that is about the only sure bet.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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2 Comments »

  1. Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.

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    Comment by OyiaBrown — August 14, 2017 @ 8:48 AM | Reply

  2. […] cans down the road gets you. But again some shadowy figures have made the simple complicated. From Beyond the Cusp, who I always enjoy reading but tends to long form content that is difficult to […]

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    Pingback by Charlottesville and Norks; Through a Glass Darkly | nebraskaenergyobserver — August 15, 2017 @ 7:50 AM | Reply


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