Beyond the Cusp

September 7, 2017

Sacrificing Kurds Along with Iraq to Iran

 

Currently the world and particularly the United States are all concerned with and paying tunnel-vision-style attention on North Korea and ignoring, as a consequence, Iran. This will prove to be a mistake which the world can ill afford. The current actions, backed by Iran and given a nod of agreement by the United States, are moving to take complete control over Mosul and pushing the Kurdish forces further north. The Kurds had been intending, if we read them correctly, to maintain forces in Mosul and retain the city rejoining it to their area of control as it had been a Kurdish stronghold and center of culture before Saddam Hussein forced the Kurdish from the city and flooding it with Sunni Arabs. Now the Iraqi government with strong IRGC support from Iran is once again forcing the Kurds from Mosul and this time placing Shiites in Mosul along with trusted and controlled Sunni militia. Their reasoning is multi-leveled and includes but not limited to control of the northern hub of transportation and communications for northern Iraq, using their Sunni trained former ISIS members to face off with what they regard as renegade Shiites following Muqtada al-Sadr, control over the Mosul Hydroelectric Dam Complex, and a final thrust into the heart of any Sunni forced beyond IRGC control in Iraq. Thus far, the United States has largely sat on the sidelines providing intelligence and some weapons and air support and has removed themselves from any final decisions concerning the future of Mosul.

 

Muqtada al-Sadr

Muqtada al-Sadr

 

We have been led to believe that central behind this attitude is the State Department which has strong pro-Iranian core put in place by President Obama over his eight years. Where Secretary Rex Tillerson stands on this is unknown, but we suspect that he has been persuaded by the Saudi Royals that allowing the Kurds to form their own country in their upcoming vote would be ruinous for them but appears not to have received any directive or missed the memo which would have told him allowing Iran to gain control would be even worse. From all intents and purposes which have been discernable, appearances are that pushing back the Kurds from Mosul had taken priority to holding the line against spreading Iranian influence. The Mosul Dam Complex at peak power provides over one-mega-watt of power and generates over one-giga-watt of power annually providing almost all of northern Iraq with its electricity. Iranian control of this dam could spell the end of any Kurdish hopes for independence, for Kurdistan would be then dependent upon the Iraqi government to provide power, something their Iranian masters might use to crush the Kurds at a subsequent time. Mosul must end up in Kurdish hands along with the Mosul Hydroelectric Dam complex. The Kurds have already signaled they would continue to permit electrical power to flow to all of northern Iraq and not just their area of control. We seriously doubt the Kurds can expect the same cooperation from Iraq or Iran. What the leadership of the United States need remember is that North Korea and Iran are coordinating for their mutual gains, they cooperate on both nuclear and missile technologies, and finally that Iran is flush with American monies and will use them to gain hegemonic control of the Middle East and plans of then fulfilling the Quranic instruction to conquer the world and rid it of all disbelievers wherever they are found. Such a cleansing would include Sunni and other non-Shiite Muslims and the imposition of Sharia of the Tehran Ayatollah style. Iran sees themselves as the modern Persian Empire only this time an Islamic empire rather than multi-cultural.

 

North Korea is a certain and present threat but beyond launching missiles and possibly marching into South Korea and obliterating Seoul if they choose, they pose little threat of world conquest or any real conquest. Beyond South Korea and Japan, North Korea might pose a five to ten missile launch threat which the United States has assured all involved that they can intercept such an attack or even one twice that size. North Korea does not pose a serious follow-on threat after their launch beyond the threat they have posed since the late 1950’s to attack South Korea with human waves styled assault and the demolishing of Seoul with originally mostly artilleries and now additionally rocketry and missiles. Iran has already signaled their intentions when they began reeducating and further training the ISIS fighters they deemed worthy whom they had captured while taking Mosul. The best they have forced into a Shiite mold and others they allowed to remain Sunni. The Sunni are the sacrificial force which will, at some time in the future, be used to depose and destroy the power structure of Muqtada al-Sadr located largely in southern Sadr City district in Baghdad. Iran has de facto control of all the territory controlled by the Iraqi government. Iran had previously announced their intentions to wield a Shiite Crescent across the Middle East. This they currently have reaching from the Indian Ocean across Iran, Iraq, Syria and through Lebanon to the Mediterranean Sea. Then the Iranian leadership stated a desire to encircle Saudi Arabia which they accomplished with the use of the Houthis in a civil war in Yemen. This plus further attempts to include the Gulf States in their circle of influence and they are pretty much in control of the Middle East (see map below). Iran needs to finish taking control of all of Syria in the south in order to cement the link to Iraq, something they are accomplishing with relative ease having Russian air support. This is why they must be prevented from closing their power in Mosul, the key to the north of Iraq. We know not who, but suspect the State Department, told President Trump to sacrifice the Kurds, but they gave bad advice. Even had the advice been given in order to serve Saudi Arabia, that idea is misleading because allowing Iran to wrest control of Mosul simply empowers Iran further and weakens the Saudis. Despite the Saudi distaste for the Kurds, the Kurds and their dream of Kurdistan including Mosul is the best thing the Saudis could pray and hope to achieve to provide them with security.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

There are other problems concerning the rising hegemony by Iran. They are once again providing monetary and supplying military goods to both Hamas in Gaza and Hezballah in Lebanon. Iran has de-facto control of Lebanon and Hezballah has almost exclusive control over the Lebanese armed forces and all of the Russian and America equipment including numerous Abrams heavy battle tanks and Apache attack helicopters provided to Lebanon by President Obama, taking their word that Hezballah was not in control as honest. It is highly suspected President Obama knew he was directly arming Hezballah but that is a done deed and blame is irrelevant. The truth is the Iranian arming of Hamas and the taking of all weapons from the Lebanese military has placed new and viable threats on the northern and southern borders of Israel. There have already been rumors and talk that should another war inevitably come pressed upon Israel by Hamas, Hezballah or both in a coordinated assault, Israel will have little if any choice but to fight these wars differently this go-around. No longer can Israel afford their “mow the grass” method of destroying most of the infrastructure and arms caches and avoid direct confrontations when possible leaving the fighting forces and command and control centers, often placed in the basements of hospitals, intact and not destroyed. The Israeli military, and starting to grip the political class with the necessity of the next war brought on by Hezballah, has to be fought to destroy Lebanon as a fighting force and possibly liberate the nations and return it to being a Christian nations this time protected by Israel forcing any Islamist ideology from within the borders. Further, the same may also be the result sought for Gaza should Hamas and Islamic Jihad and friends start launching hundreds of missiles and rockets a day into Israel, this time including her major cities, then Israel will likely change to a complete eradication of the terror forces in Gaza.

 

Should these scenarios come to pass, there will be a great amount of screaming coming from the European Union and the United Nations and many of the nations allied with Iran and the United States State Department. Israel will need to stick to her plans and if necessary, break relations with the European Union and United Nations. They need to act completely independently and without fear of threats to not provide military aid if Israel does not comply with the demands of the United Nations or other nations or groups of nations. This means that Israel need have developed and in place the ability to manufacture preferably fifth or sixth generation aircraft and fourth generation aircraft as a minimal level and as providing backup to the more expensive fifth or sixth generation aircraft. Israel will also require maritime production facilities that could be built between Akko and Haifa using the Akko Bay as their waterfront after some dredging. The aircraft industry could be placed in the Negev or the Galilee thus these projects along with munitions factories would provide badly needed jobs and increase the tax base possibly permitting a drop in the VAT tax rate relieving many Israelis financial woes. The added tax base and revenues would very likely exceed current foreign aid from the United States which would allow Israel to cut all umbilical cords which are currently used to force her to make concessions which are against her best interests.

 

There would be many other gains made should Israel develop her own arms industries, as this would also permit Israel selling advanced armaments to nations who pose no threat to Israel. Such commercial accounts would also permit Israel to influence these nations to assure they do not provide aid or comfort to any Israeli enemies. This could provide Israel with a wedge to drive between many of the developing world and their current Arab arms providers. Further, Israel could develop the best air-frames and other military technologies and thus not be dependent upon other countries to provide these weapons systems. Israeli ability to out-engineer most of even the developed nations when it comes to weapons systems was proven as Israel took the early lead in drone development as well as a continuing advanced ability in projectile interception as the Israeli Iron Dome systems have proven and Israeli ballistic missile interception includes one system which is also capable of taking satellites out of their orbits and destroying them. This is a capability that has the United States seriously considering buying some batteries of this system for protection against both Iranian and North Korean satellites which could harbor dangerous weapons payloads. Israel has proven capable of tackling anything which she is required of performing but has gone too long dependent upon the United States for her munitions and her aircraft and needs to break that dependency.

 

Conclusions are that first and foremost the United States need support the Kurds in taking and retaining control of Mosul or face a Middle East where Iran runs the show and Saudi Arabia is encircled and under threat. Israel need read the tea-leaves and realize that they are but three or four elections going the wrong way from losing their protection from the United States as the next generation take over the positions of power. Nations have interests which change with little notice and not friends forever. Nations do not form BFF’s on Facebook with other nations. They do enter into and back out of alliances as regularly as people buy new vehicles. The Europeans have a short period where if they awaken and realize their errors they can begin and potentially save their continent. This would require them teaching the next generations that the purpose in life is to seek happiness and satisfaction and this is most easily accomplished through families, nice, large families. They need to regain an appreciation for the Judeo-Christian Ethic which built them into the most powerful force on Earth. They need to remember that work gives one a purpose and sense of accomplishment, especially when everyone is working at a position they enjoy and is at least slightly challenging. They also need to save their education systems which currently produce spoiled children incapable of facing the slightest upset. These snowflakes who have been indoctrinated rather than educated may end up incapable of even running to the store, let alone run a nation or the world. If the Judeo-Christian philosophy and work ethic is to survive, it will require being taught as what it has proven to be, the most open and successful system for governance which can produce a future which strives to accomplish great feats reaching for the Moon and beyond. The other choices may be the Chinese central governance with limited economic freedom and even less actual freedom or worse yet; the coils of Fundamentalist Islam which will stifle all creativity, imagination and progress will slide back into another Dark Ages which may actually signal the end of human development and an end to freedom of any variety. Should freedom be lost in Europe, it will be lost for the foreseeable future and not only will the children grow up in a form of bondage, so will the grand children and probably their grandchildren after them for twenty or fifty or even a thousand generations. This is all that is at stake and freedom once lost is never regained in less than four generations, and that is a long time. We are aware how unlikely this appears but trust that it is on the horizon, getting larger, and is not a joking matter and something the West need focus on and prepare or surrender now and may your chains wear lightly on your children and their children.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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1 Comment »

  1. Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.

    Like

    Comment by OyiaBrown — September 11, 2017 @ 9:53 AM | Reply


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