Beyond the Cusp

October 14, 2017

Israel Palestinian Conundrum

 

There is action again on the pretense of making some form of peace out of whole cloth. President Trump said at the UN General Assembly in September. “I certainly will devote everything within my heart and within my soul to get that deal made.” Meanwhile, there is a conference to be held in the Menachem Begin Heritage Center in Jerusalem convened by Mudar Zahran, Secretary-General of the Jordan Opposition Coalition, to pursue his concept of “Jordan-is-Palestine” starting Tuesday, October 17, 2017. Then there was the recently completed initial step towards reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas presumably to permit the Palestinian Authority (PA) to resume civil control over Gaza once more. Hamas will be permitted to retain their police force, which is a twenty-five-thousand man military force, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, not so much a police force. Lastly, there was the response to the reconciliation which we concur with by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who claimed this was nothing more than a rouse to make peace agreement, and we add especially the Jordan conference by Mudar Zahran, completely impossible. Now, please allow us to attempt and untangle this bird’s nest.

 

Let us start by taking the promise by President Trump which derives back to the debates where he made the claim that his business was built on making deals, and finding the deal to make peace in the Israeli-Arab conflict would be making the deal of a lifetime and that this challenge was one he dreamt of taking on and succeeding. This was a great story and campaign dream to tell the world, but accomplishing such is an entirely different matter. I would not demean the President of the United States by claiming that other capable men have tried for the past quarter century with nothing to show for it except a weakened position for Israel. These stabbings at peace have allowed the constant Israeli concessions for the privilege of shaking the hand of the source of the terror sent to murder Israeli citizens, both Arab and Jew, both Muslim and Jew; and Arab propaganda eroding the Israeli position calling into question International Law and the rights under treaty and resolved again under Article 80 of the United Nations Charter which called for enforcement of the Mandates from the League of Nations which defined the Jewish State as from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River. President Trump will unfortunately also fail for a very simple reason; the Arabs will only accept Israel Destroyed and the Jews all dead. If one were to read the Hamas Charter, they would find that after Israel they want to next murder every Jew on the planet and then rule the planet as the Caliphate leadership enforcing their version of Sharia. It would be more beneficial for President Trump to learn the reality before he too demands another set of concessions from Israel for the pleasure of shaking the hand of the leader of those who wish to murder them in their sleep. Unfortunately, President Trump will press on and in the end, he too will run out of time as has every President before him as eight, or a mere four, years pass quickly.

 

The Menachem Begin Heritage Center will definitely be an interesting place on Tuesday. There will be some arguing, some congratulatory rhetoric, mutual support pledges, numerous declarations predicting a future of peace and prosperity and hopefully it will end quietly and everybody will go home with hope in their heart. As far as the realization of a Palestinian homeland in Jordan with King Abdullah II abdicating allowing a peaceable transference of power, that future has little hope. The Middle East is a strange place where the strong horse gathers followers and the weak horse ends up in exile in London and talks about a glorious future where democracy wins the day and the people prosper all as a ruse to gain wealth from the crazed Westerners who invest in pipe dreams. The conference will have a number of people with reputable names and great credentials, which explains why we were not invited, and their names will definitely add to the credibility of Mr. Mudar Zahran allowing him to probably rake in much needed funds to continue paying his supporters and others their salaries for their hard work at selling the dream. Do not get us wrong, we would like to see this idea of Jordan is Palestine actually occur though we envision such with King Abdullah II still ruling the western parts of Jordan with his supporters retaining their leader. The hope for a democratic Palestinian Arab state in Jordan has as much chance as the Arab Spring (we called it the Arab Winter way back) resulting in a democratic Middle East and North Africa. The only good thing is as long as there is no civil war in Jordan, then Jordan will not end up like Libya, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon where the people have no real government and their countries are dysfunctional. But a democratic Jordan, when peace comes to Israel and the two might actually be linked, who knows.

 

Then there is the announced agreement between Fatah and Hamas, which gave each side what they required; Fatah and the PA can now reject any peace agreement which does not include Gaza. This puts an end to the Jordan is Palestine as Gaza was under Egyptian control and not Jordanian. This allows the PA to demand that any Jordanian resolution is unsatisfactory, as it does not allow any solution for Gaza. Gaza will be their defense claiming that Jordan and Gaza are mutually exclusive. The demand will be simple, only a return to the pre-Six Day War lines will be acceptable. Even should President Trump find some magic crystal ball granting him magical powers that such a deal is reached, then will come the demand that the Palestinian Arab refugees, all five to eight million of them, be permitted to return to Israel and be granted citizenship and payment to all Palestinians to compensate them for their losing the war in 1948 and again in 1967. The Arab world has a dream that with their new modern weaponry, which presumably is equal to anything Israel can currently field, that if only they could force Israel back to the pre Six Day War lines and have a do-over then they will prevail this time. They have likely done their math and find that their forces measure up close to the Six Day War odds and that this time they will win. Further, the idea of another try at eliminating Israel, the Zionist Entity, will somehow draw all the warring factions together in Syria, allow the Muslim Brotherhood to take power in Egypt if President Sisi refuses to join the effort and unite the Arab world into a unified force which might be able to be molded into a Caliphate. Just for an idea of the odds they hope to field, here are the odds from before the Six Day War in the image below. The Arab armies vastly outnumbered the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) yet they managed to lose. They believe they will not lose as third time’s the charm, or so they hope. You can see why the Israelis believe their win was a miracle. The odds in 1948 were even higher as Israel had no actual organized military and managed to patchwork sufficient forces to turn the tide but still lost Gaza to Egypt and Judea and Samaria to Jordan. The Six Day War saw these lands liberated and the Golan Heights taken to end the Syrian practice of using snipers to shoot Israeli farmers working their fields. This is why Israel annexed the Golan Heights quickly after the Yom Kippur War of 1973.

 

1967 Six Day War Initial Odds in Military Forces

 

The gain that Hamas gets from their reconciliation is a lifting of the strangulation imposed by Mahmoud Abbas, which left Gaza with limited electricity, and other difficulties that was going to lead to a challenge of Hamas rule. By placing the PA presumably responsible for civil rule, now they must provide electricity, water, trash pick up, sewage and other civil duties while Hamas retains their army that means that they are actually in control. Mahmoud Abbas will be permitted to visit as will other PA officials as a show of their glorious victory but it is ephemeral. The power still resides with Hamas and even Islamic Jihad will wield greater power than the PA will. At any point in the future, should Hamas decide to end the ruse; the PA will be sent scurrying back to Judea and Samaria where IDF forces and intelligence protect them from Hamas. We would really hate to be one of the PA assigned to the new governance in Gaza as that could prove to be one’s final position should Hamas become upset at Fatah. The reconciliation also has yet to be finalized and there is to be another meeting to work out the minutia around November 21 in Cairo where everything will unravel and go back to where it was before the so-called reconciliation.

 

Finally, the reconciliation between Hamas and Gaza is exactly what Prime Minister Netanyahu claims, a ruse to end any chance at peace. Hamas and Fatah already have stated to their respective citizens that nothing has actually changed as far as Israel and their efforts to end the Jewish State. The PA saw that they were about to face pressures which could have forced them to make concessions instead of Israel and feared that President Trump might actually apply leverage. Now they can count on their partners to provide the cover for rebuffing any advance by President Trump as well as make the Jordan initiative a mute point. They are getting two birds with one stone and Hamas is getting financial relief, a twofer, or does that make it a threefer? That is where the peace initiatives now lay, scattered across the parched sands of the Arab Middle East where any chance of peace is whittled and eroded away by the dry windswept sands. Israel remains an oasis of green and peace where equality exists for every Israeli citizen regardless of their heritage be it Arab, Jewish, Muslim, Christian or anything else. But once again, we are to witness the PA do whatever it takes to negate all hopes for peace.

 

More to come.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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1 Comment »

  1. Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.

    Like

    Comment by OyiaBrown — October 16, 2017 @ 10:28 AM | Reply


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