Pompeo and Iran Faceoff

 

Pompeo is the new United States Secretary of State and he made a grand and flamboyant entrance. Apparently, President Trump finally got exactly what he desired at the State Department, someone who understands he works for the President and not in competition with the President when it comes to foreign policy. Pompeo understands he is there in order to advise and explain the implications, the intricacies, the consequences, the repercussions, the potential reactions of allies and adversaries plus, when requested, his opinion tempered by his years with the CIA. Pompeo has now stepped out with the suggestions for Iran to follow if they wish to be welcomed into the family of nations, or at least avoid sanctions from the United States. So, we guess that the best idea now is to produce the dozen demands from President Trump as outlined by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

 

1. Iran must declare to the IAEA a full account of the prior military dimensions of its nuclear program, and permanently and verifiably abandon such work in perpetuity.
2. Iran must stop enrichment and never pursue plutonium reprocessing. This includes closing its heavy water reactor.
3. Iran must also provide the IAEA with unqualified access to all sites throughout the entire country.
4. Iran must end its proliferation of ballistic missiles and halt further launching or development of nuclear-capable missile systems.
5. Iran must release all US citizens, as well as citizens of our partners and allies, each of them detained on spurious charges.
6. Iran must end support to Middle East terrorist groups, including Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
7. Iran must respect the sovereignty of the Iraqi government and permit the disarming, demobilization, and reintegration of Shia militias.
8. Iran must also end its military support for the Houthi militia and work towards a peaceful political settlement in Yemen.
9. Iran must withdraw all forces under Iranian command throughout the entirety of Syria.
10. Iran, too, must end support for the Taliban and other terrorists in Afghanistan and the region, and cease harboring senior al-Qaeda leaders.
11. Iran, too, must end the IRG Qods Force’s support for terrorists and militant partners around the world.
12. Iran must end its threatening behavior against its neighbors — many of whom are US allies. This certainly includes its threats to destroy Israel, and its firing of missiles into Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It also includes threats to international shipping and destructive — and destructive cyberattacks.

 

The Dry Bones cartoons described these demands as President Trump demanding “Unconditional Surrender” from Iran. Others have tried to represent them as demanding that Iran be like any peaceful democratic nations. There might be a small problem there; Iran is anything but a peaceful democratic nation, it is a Theocracy disguised as a democratic nation but run as a Mullocracy where the Supreme Leader who receives his orders from Allah, or so we are to believe, and whatever he dreams up in his overblown egotistical imagination is to be implemented. Iran responded with his message, which went like this, “The conditions of the United States are meaningless. Iran has no need for anyone’s permission to act in the Middle East. Our missile programs will be determined according to Iranian needs.” Meanwhile, from Israel we heard from the leader of the Jewish Home Party, Minister Naftali Bennett, who said, “The bottom line of Pompeo’s speech and the new policy toward Iran is that it can either invest in improving the lives of Iranians or invest in taking the lives of other people. It cannot do both.” The initial reaction here was a simple recognition that the gauntlet has been thrown, and that is where we will start.

 

Display featuring missiles and portrait of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei (Reuters)

 

The Iranian threat is being met head on by President Trump, which he announced through Mike Pompeo’s speech. Now comes the long game, how long will depend on a number of conditions which will be recognized along the path as we progress. We might be watching the pages of history being written before us in the newspapers and blogs which cover the news of our age. The gauntlet was lain out in the Pompeo speech and responded to be the Iranian spokespeople in which they basically told President Trump, bring it. The ball is back in the court of President Trump and Secretary of State Pompeo. Iran is not going to comply, not now, not ever. Iran is willing to push the confrontation to whatever point it takes and will destroy their entire economy and the lives of thousands, if not millions, of Iranian citizens just to prove that they cannot be intimidated. The Iranian leaders, the Mullahs, all believe that they are destined to be the eventual rulers of the world, and as such cannot be intimidated, defeated or otherwise deterred from completing Allah’s will on Earth. So, the next step is going to be the initial sanctions as President Trump did say that the sanctions would be applied in steps getting ever more restrictive, as sanctions tend to be.

 

Where does this end? Where do things such as this ever end? When two nations, both of which believe the world is their oyster, come at loggerheads, there can be only one end, either one of the two backs down and accepts the other being of greater power or they go all in in a contest of one another’s mettle, and that means another war in the Middle East. That brings us to the big question, which nation will be the one to initiate hostilities and in what form will that attack take? That attack’s form will depend upon which nation initiates the actual hot war. The United States would likely use conventional weaponry and any initial attack will target the Iranian missile launch locations and their known nuclear research and enrichment facilities even to include the Fordow site near Qom built by tunneling deep into the mountain in an attempt to make it impervious to attack, but the entrances are above ground and not impervious, just defended by the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft systems. The escalations will be planned such that they do not impact the citizens of Iran, as President Trump rightfully believes that they are the ultimate weapon for ending the rule of the Mullahs. President Trump would most prefer that there be a revolution by the Iranian people to remove the Mullahs and install governance of their choosing. Then there is the problematic situation as to how the United States could assist the Iranian people without actually declaring or entering open warfare. The preferred means of accomplishing such a task usually falls to some of the most well trained warriors on the planet, the Navy Seals and the Army Delta Force.

 

Fordow Nuclear Site Near Qom Built by Tunneling Deep into the Mountain

 

But what if the Iranians decide to declare their war first? This would be where the United States anti-missile systems world-wide would face a real wartime test. Iran would likely use a multi-pronged attack. There would be a number of high altitude nuclear missiles aimed towards the heart of the United States which would be specially set for maximum electro-magnetic pulse. These warheads would initially be launched disguised as scientific satellites. These might even have actual equipment which would operate just as a weather satellite or other normative satellite. They could be placed in orbit years ahead of their use or simply months ahead of their use. These would be assisted with normal, high-explosive thermonuclear weapons launched at the major cities of the United States. These might even be launched from freighters which would be following normal cargo transport routes only deviating in the final hours to reach their launch points surrounding the United States. Such launchings would be difficult to intercept, as they would have flight times of less than one hour. The world would face an extreme situation, as the United States is the largest exporter of food responsible for feeding a large part of the world’s population. It is almost unnecessary to point out that the United States retaliatory strike would bring the end of Iran which would be carried out by the United States Boomers, their nuclear carrying submarines.

 

The world had best hope there exists a third means of ending this standoff, and unfortunately there does exist such a solution. The other solution could come in three years or seven, all depending on United States political elections. The change can come simply due to a new President being elected. In three years, President Trump faces a reelection campaign. Trump is quite likely to face his first test just retaining the Republican nomination, as he is sure to be contested. This is highly irregular, but there is a major part of the Republican Party which seriously desires removing the Trump blight they believe he has leveled against their party. Even should President Trump manage to continue on as the Republican nominee, the primary would leave him as an even more damaged candidate than he would otherwise have been. Then President Trump would face his Democrat contester in the General Election. Even should President Trump win reelection, he would not be permitted to run in the following election four years later. Should Iran choose, they could simply outwait President Trump and simply suffer the sanctions until somebody more favorable to Iran is elected. Even should the next President decide to continue the sanctions, eventually there will be somebody elected who would decide to lift the sanctions and seek better relations with Iran and the Mullahs. The United States might potentially elect a President who would turn out to be even more pro-Iranian than was any previous President. Such a selection could be one such as Keith Ellison, Abdul El-Sayed or Saba Ahmed or some other candidate who would wish to support relations with Iran (we cannot actually claim any of the above would support Iran).

 

Then there is a fourth possibility which could lead almost anywhere. Iran could decide that the sanctions would only make them weaker in the future and move on whatever target they desired next rather than wait for time to pass. They might initiate a conflict with Saudi Arabia, Israel or even Turkey. Iran could choose any target they have already in their plans for world conquest which the Supreme Leader, both Ali Khamenei and Ruhollah Khomeini, his predecessor. This is the destine and their belief is so deep that they believe that they rule the second Persian Empire, just as Turkey’s President Erdogan believes he is the first Caliph of the new Ottoman Empire. One can only wonder what other leaders hiding in the Middle East believe that they are some reincarnation or successor to some past empire, possibly Egypt, Babylon, Assyria, Carthaginian or choose your favorite lost empire. The only current people with delusions who are of any danger are the two mentioned above. Erdogan could have been contained had only the United States State Department have given just a small amount of encouragement to the Kurds to declare independence and have the United States provide a modicum of assistance. Iran, on the other hand, is already establishing their bases for the conquest of the Middle East after which they will need to choose either Europe or North Africa. We would make our best bet on Northern Africa, as they would desire to fully convert and bring the Islamic World behind any further conquests. Thusfar, with minimal notice from most of the world beyond the Israelis and the vanquished, Iran has established a corridor reaching from the Indian Ocean through to the Mediterranean Sea. They have also established a second front against Saudi Arabia in the south from Yemen to compliment their front from Iraq. One can only wonder what might happen when Turkey sweeping across the northern Kurdish regions in Syria comes to the attention of the Iranians as they believe that Syria is their sandbox. The world sure is an interesting place, particularly in the Middle East. Let us hope it does not get any more interesting.

 

Beyond the Cusp