Beyond the Cusp

July 1, 2018

President Trump Requires a New “Deal of the Century”

 

Now that we have slowly but surely, and we hope fairly correctly, perused over the situation facing President Trump and his presented intuitions and leaks fed the media in our articles, “President Trump Needs to Face Reality,” “Why Not Simply Face Facts,” and “Middle East Reality Strikes President Trump,” perhaps it is time to present a viable, even if untested and unconventional, path which provides the President a way forward. What we are going to present is something rarely attempted or even found useful in politics and international relations, the truth. One thing for sure, the truth has seldom even been presented in Middle East relations since Moses presented Hashem’s words and warnings to Pharos. As we recall, that turned out rather poorly for Pharos, so even then the truth did not provide a conflict free resolution, though in the end the two sides were nowhere near evenly matched. The first thing is the reality of what President Trump is facing and what the replies he has received actually mean need be explained.

 

First, Jordan gave President Trump a simple and straight-forward reply, in a word, “No.” King Abdullah simply refused to be a party to replacing the Palestinian Authority or Mahmoud Abbas, Saeb Erekat or anybody even to include Hamas and Islamic Jihad. As far as King Abdullah is concerned, he does not want anything to do with the entire situation and his adamancy was absolute. President Trump has to face the fact that King Abdullah has removed Jordan from the equation completely, and after the coup by Yasser Arafat attempted against his father in September of 1970, still remembered as “Black September,” the idea of allowing the Palestinian Authority, the successor to the PLO, into Jordan was probably perceived as suicidal. So that puts Jordan out of the picture which makes a solution all the more difficult.

 

The other two major players on the Arab side were Saudi Arabia and Egypt, neither of which borders any of the Palestinian Authority regions and only Egypt borders Gaza which has presented them little else but turmoil and difficulties. Their response was spun as sounding promising, but like everything in the Middle East, the true meaning was far more cryptic and hidden. Their basic response was that they would both be glad to assist President Trump in any plans he presents as long as certain conditions are met by his solutions. As always is, the devil is in the details, and in this instance the details which they presented were the terms within the Saudi Plan. That presents a problem as the Saudi Plan includes, and these are simply the main points, that there be a “Two State Solution” with the borders along the June 4, 1967 borders, the Green Line, the pre-Six Day War lines which were set in 1949 under the armistice between Israel and Jordan, that is Jordan and not to ever be confused with the never existing Palestine, with East Jerusalem as its capital city, which would place the entirety of the Old City and Temple Mount in the hands of the Palestinians once again dividing Jerusalem and making the Old City outside the area where Jews could safely tread, and the situation of the “refugees” being resolved satisfactorily. If you think that sounds familiar, you are probably getting the point. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are willing to assist President Trump provided he force the maximalist position, the very same positions taken by Mahmoud Abbas and the rest of the Palestinian Authority, PLO and Fatah. In exchange for this total surrender by Israel, the other Arab nations will consider formalizing relations with Israel. This is actually true, if Israel were to meet these demands, after the next election when the five to eight million Arab refugees have the vote as citizens of Israel elect probably Marwan Barghouti as the new Prime Minister, then as Israel would now be a good Arab Muslim nation, they would formalize relations with their new cousins. So, there we have the plan that Egypt and Saudi Arabia will support for President Trump, and we can bet he realizes what a non-starter that idea would be.

 

So, it is obvious that the only plan the Arabs will accept is the same plan they attempted to enact by force in 1948 and again in 1969 and once more in 1973 and has been the sole aim of the PLO, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Arab League, Fatah, Yasser Arafat, Mahmoud Abbas, Saeb Erekat and Marwan Barghouti ever since. If President Trump desires any help from the Arabs or, more generally, the Muslims, then he is going to have to impose on Israel a plan which will be guaranteed to end in another war which will start with a rocket attack on Tel Aviv which will leave the central towers leveled and tens of thousands of Israelis dead (see images below). Even President Barack Obama knew enough to avoid any attempts to force this solution upon Israel, though some claim he would have loved to see this to its fruition. This solution was offered once to Jordan when Israel and Jordan made peace in October of 1994 which Jordan immediately rejected knowing that the Oslo Accords were going to do far more damage to Israel at no cost to Jordan thus granting Israel an escape from the Accords would have been counter-productive as far as Jordan was concerned. Had Jordan accepted such a peace treaty, then any attacks across the Green Line would have meant war while leaving these regions even partially in the possession of Yasser Arafat and the PLO, renamed for appearances the Palestinian Authority, then attacks upon Israel would merely be random terrorism, which was beyond their control despite over the top incitement to murder Israelis (Jews), and thus not starting a war meaning they could attack Israel freely and the world would protect the aggressors and blame Israel for refusing to surrender completely enough. So, President Trump can expect absolutely no assistance of any relevance from the Arab world.

 

Tel Aviv Now Before Green Line Peace and Tel Aviv the Day After Green Line Peace

Tel Aviv Now Before Green Line Peace
and
Tel Aviv the Day After Green Line Peace

 

Now, for what to do. President Trump is facing the same conundrum which has befuddled all of his predecessors who have even approached the sixty-thousand-volt live wire that is the Middle East ultimate peace. There is the most obvious and safest route, walk away calmly and never return to this subject again. We know, this is not exactly Trump’s style, he lives to accomplish that which none have accomplished before him. We are not saying he has succeeded in these areas, but he does love the challenge more than even the success, and he craves the laudatory success. President Trump also has probably envisioned his Nobel Peace Prize for reaching an intermediary end to the Arab-Israeli Conflict. We say intermediary as we are realists and fully believe Yasser Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas amongst others when they claim that any peace is simply the first step to the destruction of Israel in stages. The first thing President Trump must do is to have a reality check. He must ask of himself the big question, is he willing to potentially lead to the destruction of Israel just to reach an agreement? We would like to believe he would respond in the negative. Once this has sunk in and become fully understood, the next step is to realize the Arabs, even those saying they will assist his efforts, are only going to accept the eventual destruction of Israel and anything they accept is the first step in that direction. President Trump will have to realize that once there is a nation of Palestine, they will be permitted by the United Nations, European Union and over one hundred of the member nations of the General Assembly, with another approaching fifty not caring either way (that makes a three-fourths majority of the world), to launch attack after attack upon Israel with impunity while Israel will be excoriated if she even launches a lawn dart in response. The agreement the Arabs demand would leave Tel Aviv exactly in the position pictured above. Thus, President Trump need find a way out of his promised “Deal of the Century” which allows him to save face and come out of the ordeal with a minimum of egg on his face. The media will have a field day critiquing where he failed and the scale of his failure. It will be like he dropped the ball on the easiest play in the world and not like he came slightly closer than most by actually testing every angle and not destroying anything in the process. The last President who attempted something new was President George W. Bush, and we all know how that turned out, Hamas and Islamic Jihad and the mess in Gaza currently.

 

How does one extricate themselves from a lidless box within which they have sealed themselves? This is the challenge and there is only one path to redemption, absolute truth, and telling it to the only people that matter for President Trump, the American people. He need make a primetime speech to the American people and explain what he now knows he is facing, an obstructionist group which reject any and all compromise demanding Israel be sacrificed. President Trump will need to tell it as it is explaining what the Palestinian Authority has demanded, the rejection of having any part by Jordan and the demand that the very same deal demanded by Mahmoud Abbas is what both Saudi Arabia and Egypt demand for their assistance. He can lay out what they demand and exactly what that would mean for Israel, Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and the world. He can explain how little help has been forthcoming from the European and the United Nations and how in many instances these areas have been anywhere from counter-productive to part of the problem. He must also explain the history going into the Balfour Declaration, its being codified by the San Remo Conference which was restated in the Treaty of Serves. Then talk about the Mandate System which was put in place by the League of Nations and adopted in Article 80 of the United Nations Charter and included in the Anglo-American Convention of 1925 where the United States agreed to assist in implementing the British Mandate, though little support ever was provided. President Trump can explain that the Zionist Congress accepted the taking of 78% of the Mandate away from being for the Jews and giving it to the Arabs in the form of Jordan and how the British promised to protect the remaining 22% and the border of the Jordan River as the eastern border for the Jewish State and how the British reneged on their word. But after this has almost put the people watching to sleep, he will need to say the magic words to wake them, “In conclusion.”

 

This will be the tough part, as President Trump will be required to come up with a killer exit. Everyone will be expecting to hear what his “Deal of the Century” contains, and he will need to build this up while tearing expectation down. That will be difficult, but he does claim he could sell brimstone to the devil. President Trump will need present that there is no path to peace which would permit Israel to have what they were promised, safe, secure and defendable borders. He could use the graphic we used above to depict the problem but a simple series of pictures of how the region the Arabs are demanding overlooks Tel Aviv would serve the purpose. Then there are a few other pictures which show the problem in detail which we have included below. This could be topped by reminding his audience about the future threat which Iran poses and his efforts to thwart their becoming a nuclear threat to the world. This should be done with short, staccato-like phrases intended to strike hard and make an impression. This is the final crescendo to his finale.

 

Ben Gurion Airport Plane Vulnerability from Palestine (c/o Dr. Martin Sherman and Arutz Sheva)

Ben Gurion Airport Plane Vulnerability from Palestine
(c/o Dr. Martin Sherman and Arutz Sheva)

 

Trans-Israel Highway Route 6 (c/o Dr. Martin Sherman and Arutz Sheva)

Trans-Israel Highway Route 6
(c/o Dr. Martin Sherman and Arutz Sheva)

 

Final Conflict for potential nuclear standoff after Iran starts producing its missiles and warheads which is likely already going on in secret enrichment warhead factories berried under Tehran hospital

Final Conflict for potential nuclear standoff after Iran starts producing its missiles and warheads which is likely already going on in secret enrichment warhead factories berried under Tehran hospital

 

President Trump will need to end the speech on an upward inflection instilling hope where little can be found. This is where his “Deal of the Century” quote can be used, though that would be risky. What he should then propose is that he is willing to engage with any and every Middle Eastern and North African country willing to accept Israeli existence as the state for the Jewish People and work towards a serious solution which does not leave Israel vulnerable and also addresses the plight of the Arabs. He should at this point avoid using the world Palestine Palestinian as that would be referencing the trap Israel fell into in September of 1993 with Oslo. He should emphasize that the Jews have as much a right to a country as the Arabs do to have their twenty–plus countries across the MENA region. He might even suggest that the Arabs residing within the promised borders of Israel by international treaties could be granted resident alien status were any Arab nation willing to accept granting them citizenship and how the Arabs nations should work to assist their brothers who have been refugees far too long. He can point to the way Israel accepted almost one million refugee Jews from across the MENA region who were driven from their homes in the decade after the founding of Israel while also settling over a million European Jews who were left with nothing after World War II. In this reference President Trump should avoid referencing the Holocaust as such would reinforce the mistaken identity of Israel being a present to the Jews as an apology for the six million killed by the Nazis. The final phrase which is almost an imperative is that the promises which were given the Jewish people in 1917, in April of 1920 and restated again in August of 1920 and finally formalized by the League of Nations in the Mandate System in 1923 must finally be recognized and fulfilled. The failures of the world to the Jewish People demand that this promise, at the very least, must be honored. That should give the world some words to ponder and once and for all set the record straight that the nation of Israel as the Jewish State is much older than all too many have the misconception that it was due to World War II and a supposed debt. Israel was not a debt but the fulfillment of the restoration of a people with their ancestral lands which was made almost a century past.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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1 Comment »

  1. Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.

    Like

    Comment by OyiaBrown — July 4, 2018 @ 7:40 AM | Reply


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