Beyond the Cusp

October 31, 2018

Netanyahu and Threats Facing Israel

 

There is a consensus in the Prime Minister’s Cabinet that when he proposes some meek solution reeking of timidity their response resembles the bobble head dolls in the rear window of a car hitting speed bumps. That is the problem, as it appears that none are willing or able to bring forth solutions which could actually end any one of the threats facing Israel. So, perhaps our first explanation would be to give an idea of the threats facing Israel of a military type. The most obvious and potentially devastating is that of the Iranian armed Hezballah which has defeated the Christians as most of them fled to Israel, Europe, Canada or the United States allowing Lebanon to go from 80% Christian to likely over 80% Islamic with the majority of those supporting the Hezballah terrorist army. Adding to this threat is the fact that Hezballah would be armed by the Lebanese Army’s weaponry should they face Israel once more and that would include such weapons as Apache helicopters and Abrams Main Battle Tanks as well as a plethora of other American and Russian weapons and anti-tank grenades. Fortunately, Lebanon does not have much in the way of an air force outside the helicopters, which alone are a formidable weapon system in the right hands. Additionally, Hezballah has over 150,000 rockets and missiles of varying sizes, ranges and capabilities. Iran has been providing them with targeting systems to make their rockets into guided missiles making for an even greater threat as they would be capable of targeting within fifty-meter accuracy or possibly better (see image below). Additionally, Hezballah has an extensive bunker and tunnel system allowing their fighters to appear and disappear after ambushing IDF troops. Any advance into Lebanon by ground forces would run high risk of casualties in excess numbers such that it has been considered overly risky.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

In the south, Israel faces a problem of her own making. We are referring to Gaza and the Hamas and Islamic Jihad threat, of course. This was facilitated by the presumably great idea originating from the State Department and Condoleezza Rice who was the Secretary of State under George W. Bush. The concept was to have Israel completely pull everything from Israeli established communities and all IDF from Gaza gifting them with fully functioning greenhouses and an established trade in the hundreds of thousands allowing the Palestinian Authority (PA) to make a grand showing of how they would function as an independent state. This was accomplished by the middle of September of 2005 and within two years the PA had lost control as Hamas took over in a bloody coup. Since then the means of controlling the threat from Gaza has been to periodically, when rockets and other attacks became sufficiently severe a threat, to have the IDF enter Gaza and destroy much of Hamas weapons systems. This was, as intended, always a temporary solution just as the IDF operations in southern Lebanon were but a short term fix. In both cases, Hezballah to the north and Hamas and friends to the south, these resulted in an ever-escalating threat potential and now both are becoming existential threats to Israel. The solution of simply mowing the grass has reached the point that simply continuing with this strategy has reached a point where it has become problematic due to the growing threat each poses. The General Staff now advises that they are incapable of reacting to the threat from Gaza without leaving the north vulnerable to an attack by Hezballah. The northern threat has been further complicated by the presence of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Quds Force in Syria as a further menace which could join any Hezballah offensive.

 

The big question is why did this situation come to pass when even the most casual of observers could have predicted this eventual outcome. The explanation has an expected reason driving this line of reasoning, and it is purely political. The current leadership starting with Prime Minister Netanyahu has long realized that as long as these threats are present, then elections will have the expected outcome of placing the same people in the positions of power, specifically the office of the Prime Minister. Bibi Netanyahu has established that he alone is capable of managing these threats and as such has held an iron grip as the leader who has the plan. Well, that plan has officially failed, and even his Cabinet has reached this conclusion. Still, in the public eye, he is still viewed as the best available choice of those who could be Prime Minister and it is still likely that Prime Minister Netanyahu will be forming the next coalition after the elections coming within the next year. This is likely despite the current escalation by Hamas in the south with the incendiary kites and balloons torching much of the southern farming region into burned stubble ruining an entire year’s harvest. This has the population residing in the cities, towns and kibbutzim extremely upset that their lives have been sacrificed to the inability of the powers that be to find a solution to this threat. In the past Hamas initiated with suicide bombers which were prevented by fencing the entirety of the Gaza border. That led to rocket attacks which were countered with the expensive but extremely efficient Iron Dome systems. This led to the tunneling into Israel to ambush or kidnap civilians and military alike which was countered by extending the barriers deep into the ground, something still being installed. Further, Israel developed technology for detecting these tunnels allowing for them to be destroyed before they could be used. But the simplicity of kites and balloons carrying incendiary devices has stymied the experts thusfar. Still, any threat from Gaza cannot and should not be ignored as allowing it to continue to develop new and more deadly forms of attacking Israelis is unacceptable. Obviously, a new approach is required.

 

Two recent announcements exemplify the lack of a determined strategy concerning Gaza. These are the statements.

On October 13, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman announced resolutely that Israel would not resume the supply of fuel to Gaza until the rioting on the fence stops.

On October 24, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman announced that Israel would resume the supply of fuel. This was despite the fact that rioting on the fence continued unabated.

The problem is that Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman probably had the beginnings of the right approach but after “careful consideration” by those who make these command decisions, Israel was going to appear to be too harsh and might come under threat from other nations and political pressures. The seemingly over-attention paid to what the Europeans and the United Nations or the United States or countless NGOs would think and how they would react has resulted in the lack of fortitude and determination in adopting a consistent strategy. Israel has come to a split in the road which might determine her future and ability to remain a viable nation. One road leads to taking a resolute stand against the threats on her borders and the other is the lackadaisical road of more of the same expecting better results. We can all see that the second road meets Albert Einstein’s definition of insanity, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” The other path is one that would take determination, courage, bravado and a willingness to withstand withering criticism. That final requirement is something which also would risk the continued support of the weakest members of any coalition which may result in the dissolution of the coalition and the electing of a new group based on the left who would offer the serenity and quiet of the renewed old status quo. The difficulty is rallying the Israeli public to support measures which are designed to remove a threat which does not directly or immediately make the majority feel they are threatened. That is a hard and bitter mouthful for a leader to swallow but it is also what defines great leaders. Great leaders do not withstand and hold the evil at bay, they go forth and destroy the evil before it becomes a threat beyond what can be suffered.

 

There will only be one solution to the numerous threats which Israel faces and this starts with the menace to the south and then the menace to the north. Any solution will be met with howls and protestations from almost every direction with the loudest coming from the United Nations and European Union. The reason now is the time in which such a path might be recommended and laudable is due to the fact that the President of the United States would not be amongst those screeching from the sidelines. Waiting for Europe to face a problem even remotely mirroring that Israel faces such that they would be too busy with their threats to care about ours is not a luxury which Israel could survive. It is past time to make a final and decisive stand against Hamas and the mistake of surrendering Gaza by taking back the region while forcing the population which voted by over 80% to elect Hamas as their leadership out of the region. Where they end up should be the last of the concerns of Israel in such a situation. Further, this time Israel should act to minimize the casualties suffered by the IDF and less about preserving Gaza. Hamas has proven that they will never rebuild the apartments and other structures damaged because they used them as launching platforms and instead utilize the provided building materials supplied to build tunnels and bunkers. The first strike in Gaza should be the one area which Hamas has never risked by launching rockets from the area because it is where the leadership and ranking members reside. Start by eliminating their homes and work from there. Once done, Israel should force the population to relocate outside of Israel which would once more include Gaza. The reason Gaza is even in doubt is simply because Egypt occupied it after the 1948-8 War in which they intended to genocidally massacre the Jews as stated clearly by Azzam Pasha who said, it would be “a war of extermination and momentous massacre which will be spoken of like the Mongolian massacre and the Crusades.” Instead of completely annihilating the Jewish State in its infancy, all the Arab forces managed was to take Gaza by Egypt and the Shomron which is made up of parts of Judea and Samaria which Jordan occupied and renamed West Bank to make it sound less Jewish. These regions belong to Israel under International Law from the British Mandate and the San Remo Conference along with declarations by the League of Nations and joined by the United States in the Anglo-American Treaty and adopted by the United Nations under Article 80 of the Charter. We know, we have said this quite a lot, but apparently the wrong people have read it or they are all in denial as they are wont to grant Israel the slightest of favors.

 

We are not calling for carpet-bombing all of Gaza, just the areas where Hamas, Islamic Jihad and their main support is stationed. We would desire destroying most of their ability to resist and then use IDF to remove the remainder of the terrorist base in Gaza. Then, perhaps their main beneficiary, Qatar, the nation paying for the fuel being sent into Gaza, would not mind taking in a few Gazans as they would require a new home as they cannot remain within Israel as their history of belligerence and love of Hamas and other terror groups would make them an instant fifth column. One does not remove the hive and then allow the wasps to take up residence in their living room. Getting somebody to take the refugees which would result from Israel retaking Gaza and refusing to accept the population, as they would be thousands upon thousands of inadmissible and loathsome deplorables, and unlike Hillary’s use of the word deplorables, this time it is quite accurate. No other nation would ever accept thousands and thousands of potential terrorists into their national bosom despite the fact that many of them would demand so of Israel. The time is well past due for Israel to take care of business and stand up against those whose secret desire is to erase the Jewish State from the map. Many do not even make a secret of this desire but they are easily identified as they line up every time Israel actually acts like any of these other nations would act in similar circumstances. One does not even need go that far back to see how other nations responded to what they regarded as a threat to their continued existence or even a threat to their well-being. The United States and numerous allies invaded two nations as a response to the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon. The King of Jordan killed tens of thousands of PLO and other Palestinian Arabs in response to the Black September attempted coup. President Assad in Syria, both the present one and his father, used chemical weapons and other means to destroy thousands of their own countrymen claiming that they were a threat and that civil war continues unabated today. Iran has initiated wars in Yemen, Iraq and Syria just in order to extend their reach and control of the Middle East on their way to what they see as their eventual righteous victory in the conquest of the globe. In Egypt the military reestablished their control after the dethroning of Mubarak and the placement of a Muslim Brotherhood puppet, Morsi, as President placing Sisi in to replace him. There have been other incidences around the globe such as the occupation of Tibet by China, the consistent threat to South Korea from North Korea, the so-called unification of Viet Nam and the killing fields in Cambodia just to name a few.

 

We realize that Israel does not desire to be viewed as being a vicious country but there must be limits to the level of threat a nation can abide. One cannot allow a threat to fester to the point where it becomes a near impossibility to defeat, and Hamas is well on their way to becoming such a threat and Hezballah is on that threshold. This is the definitive reason why Israel can no longer simply twiddle her thumbs and hope for the best. The leadership must consider what would happen should Iran decide, at the end of the Syrian civil war for example, strike at Israel across the Golan Heights and potentially through Jordan and along the eastern border facilitated by initially infiltrating into the PA controlled regions on the Israeli side of the Jordan River while also commanding that their three main puppets, Hezballah in Lebanon and Hamas with Islamic Jihad from Gaza in a coordinated assault meant to overwhelm Israeli forces before reserves could be fielded. Such an attack would make the surprise attack in 1973 which initiated the Yom Kippur War be a minor skirmish, and that came uncomfortably close to Israel failing to prevent defeat. The main reason Israel survived that war was because the Egyptians had to cross the Sinai Peninsula to reach Israel as it was still held by Israel as a result of the Six Day War in 1967. Israel does not have a similar depth today and thus time and being prepared before such an attack would be virtually a necessity. If such an attack came as a surprise, then it would be a race between Israel calling up reserves and organizing and these forces reaching Tel Aviv. Further, should Hezballah launch her rockets and missiles, that could further hamper any Israeli response. Then there is the problem that should Israel be required to strike at Syrian forces there would be the question of how the Russians would respond and whether they would deploy their advanced anti-aircraft missiles to assist the assault. This is the scenario which must be avoided and the initial step would be removing the threat from within Gaza and restoring Israeli control of that region. The area could be developed with possibly casinos along the shoreline making it a rival to Monte Carlo and the Riviera with family friendly theme parks, miniature golf, concerts outside and develop it into a premier vacation resort. This would be possible as the border with Egypt is relatively secured and should Egypt add their own area on their side of the border, then the two nations could coordinate security making it an ideal venture for both nations. Nothing makes friendlier neighbors than a mutually fruitful venture which produces revenue. The first step is removing Hamas, Islamic Jihad and all other threats from Gaza.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

1 Comment »

  1. Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.

    Like

    Comment by OyiaBrown — November 7, 2018 @ 10:38 AM | Reply


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