Beyond the Cusp

January 25, 2019

When Mahmoud Abbas is Gone


We are not going to go into depth over the facts that Mahmoud Abbas has refused to hold elections so he could remain in power while currently serving the twelfth year of his five-year term. We are not going belabor the point that Mahmoud Abbas is eighty-one years old and in less than perfect health. We are just going to assume that he has left the scene and, for all we care, decided to retire with his ill-gotten gains in Monte Carlo living in a modest mansion with his Force 17 still loyal and protecting him as he smokes fine cigars and enjoys a deserved retirement. We want to discuss the only option which makes any sense when one considers the lay of the land and the hard and biting facts which build the reality for this eventuality. So, what is really going to occur in the areas ruled by the Palestinian Authority after Abbas has left the scene? Trust us; it is not what you have been told.


The going blather is that there will be a power struggle as Mahmoud Abbas has no heir apparent and is want to name one. Abbas attempted that once and it did not go as planned. His choice was excoriated and verbally eviscerated until both he and Abbas decided to end his misery and he crawled away with permanent scars on any political future with the Palestinian Authority. The problem is that there are four, five, six, who knows how many others just waiting to pounce and name themselves the next leader and controller of the monies. Some have more support, others have a better claim and still others have some friends who would use force and there might even be a few who would be running the Palestinian Authority from an Israeli prison. The one thing all the pretenders to Mahmoud Abbas’s throne lack is an actual workable and executable plan to attain the position. What is even more interesting is that it does not matter as it is highly unlikely that any of these suitors for the crown will ever wear it because after Mahmoud Abbas, there will be no Palestinian Authority to provide that crown they seek.


Abbas answering Reporter’s question, “What you going to do next?” Abbas “I’m going to Disney World!”


Then there are numerous political experts and others who believe that Israel will step in and solve the problems caused by the power vacuum at the top of the Palestinian Authority by appointing the leading clans in each city and town to run their area and leave the Arabs with presumably better leadership with less graft. Such a system has been lauded by some political analysts and sociologists as likely the most advantageous system for the people. There are other plans and visions of the future for the Palestinian Authority and the region under its control. All of these predictions and plans have one thing in common and that is the reason they are all wrong, they all believe there will be a Palestinian Authority after Mahmoud Abbas leaves the arena. That is a very mistaken belief even if it remains in name only. The Palestinian Authority and Mahmoud Abbas are still here because Abbas allows the Israeli intelligence services operate even in Area A, as he knows that they will keep him from harm. And Israel has protected Mahmoud Abbas from numerous plots all while making little if any noise about these efforts. This also aids Israel as while protecting Abbas, the Israeli intelligence and security personnel also gain knowledge which is used to thwart terror attacks. Thusly, it serves both sides well.


Once Mahmoud Abbas retires or expires, the fight to take over his beleaguered Palestinian Authority will be over very likely within hours and replaced with another Arab on Arab war in the Middle East. Israel has thwarted a number of attempts by Hamas to take control of the region ruled by the Palestinian Authority in order to have a base which would threaten all of central Israel, specifically the greater Tel Aviv metropolitan area and Ben Gurion International Airport and the majority of Israeli infrastructure, industrial regions, population areas and all but cut Israel in two while cutting out her heart. This has been accomplished through targeted arrests of Hamas rings by Israeli security forces or through tipping off the Palestinian Authority to the potential threats. Once Mahmoud Abbas departs the Palestinian Authority, the power struggle will divide the security forces of the Palestinian Authority into the separate individuals each sector supports for the new leadership. This struggle to take the helm will likely not be completely peaceful and will not be limited to just those from within the Palestinian Authority. Hamas will also be making its move to assume the position closing the power vacuum and, they more than likely already have their plan ready, thus are simply biding their time. Hamas will have the added advantage of backing from Iran who could even have already placed IRGC agents within the region under Palestinian Authority control who are waiting for the signal to act. Additionally, the Arabs under the Palestinian Authority support Hamas measurably more than they do anyone from the Palestinian Authority. While there may be two or three officials or power players from the Palestinian Authority who might have a following, Hamas has the logistics and will not be afraid of using excessive force, they are likely planning on exactly that, using excessive force. Once Hamas pulls the trigger on whatever plan they have, it will be a matter of a few hours before they will have taken as much power and control as they are able. That is when everything becomes very chaotic.


The question will soon turn to when and how will Israel act. Should there develop total anarchy with numerous factions fighting one another plus an attempted coup by Hamas, Hamas could very readily start to assassinate those they believe are a threat to their taking power. As soon as it becomes evident that Hamas is operating with any level of force such that it becomes a threat to Israel, expect the world to begin to act in ways which are both unhelpful and completely contrarian to the reestablishing of order. The United Nations, European Union, numerous European nations, a plethora of NGO’s, the United States State Department along with numerous United Nations agencies will all be clamoring for Israel to stand off and allow the Palestinian Arabs to choose their new leadership free from Israeli meddling. These interventional forces are not concerned for the Palestinian Arabs, they simply desire for the worst possible outcome to be permitted such that they can then demand that Israel learn to live with Hamas perched on the high ground overlooking the Israeli coastal regions. Many Europeans still desire deep in their darkest regions of their hearts for Israel to be destroyed and the Jews right along with their state. Israelis can only hope that whoever is their Prime Minister along with the parties of the coalition are willing to act despite the screams from the world. Israel should be ready to act immediately as they learn of Mahmoud Abbas retiring and preferably before violence erupts. Thinking on that, we doubt even Israel could react as quickly as violence will erupt upon the departure of Mahmoud Abbas. That result will be almost immediate with some vying for power, some simply celebrating, some simply out of fear for what might be next and Hamas backed by Iran to try and establish a new front for use against the Zionist entity.


The losers in this, as is almost always the case, will be the Palestinians themselves. As the power struggle ensues, they will not be able to work or shop or anything considered normal activity as with violence erupting without notice anywhere in their region, it simply would not be safe to venture outside. At some point, Israel would be forced to intervene, if not for any other reason but to restore order and allow for normal activity to be resumed allowing the Palestinian Arabs to continue with their lives without being under threat of facing violence at any moment. Israel also cannot allow for Hamas to establish a foothold in the Shomron from which to operate and attempt to strengthen their hold on the Palestinian Authority regions. The problem is that Hamas may have a plan to simply wait for the power players from the Palestinian Authority have already taken out some of the other operatives and so they can come in as saviors expecting to be greeted enthusiastically. One need remember that in the last elections by the Palestinian Authority, Hamas won a majority in the Palestinian Parliament. This was presumably the driving reason why Mahmoud Abbas assumed dictatorial powers while disbanding the Palestinian Parliament and making it a dead body with no power. Hamas will promise the Palestinian Arabs better governance without the steeling of the funds as under Abbas. They will not deliver such and will soon ruin any workable economy for the average Palestinian Arab. One need look no further than Gaza where a large percentage of the building supplies were diverted to the building of bunkers and tunnels including the infiltration tunnels under the border into Israel. The aid monies were diverted into the manufacture of rockets and other weapons for use against Israel. The people under the Palestinian Authority should take a good long look at the life of the average Gazan Arab before believing that Hamas is their savior, they are anything but their savior.


The end result is when Mahmoud Abbas leaves the scene, things will very likely demand that Israel intervenes and restores order. Thus far, Abbas has shown no signs of making any viable plans for after he departs, as if he has thrown his hands up and decided to leave everyone to their fates. There is one item which the world should keep in mind, any violence or disorder which takes hold in the regions under the Palestinian Authority still is occurring within the current Israeli borders. This makes the violence an Israeli problem which they will be required to intervene and restore order. Should the fates smile on the Arab Palestinians, then Israel would take over their areas and appoint clans to rule the local regions until Israel could arrange for some elections and a power structure which would be less prone to encouraging terrorist attacks. The Arabs of the region could be granted same arrangement which was granted to the Arab Palestinians of East Jerusalem after Israel annexed the remainder of the city, allowing them to vote in local elections, in their case all the way up to and including the Jerusalem city elections, but not in national elections as they are not, at least not yet, Israeli citizens. They would also be included into the Israeli medical system and would have their lives normalized to a great extent. With time, there could be arrangement for them to have more liberal travel throughout Israel, but to do so immediately would be to invite undue dangers. With time, many of what are the current problems would begin to disappear. It will be after Mahmoud Abbas has moved on that the lives of the Palestinian Arabs could possibly begin to improve and they reach an even better economy and lives.


The way in which Israel could alleviate some of the problems and difficult challenges posed by the Arab Palestinians by intervening, replacing the governance over the Palestinian Authority area, allowing the Arabs to freely choose their futures. The first thing that the world need recognize is that many of these Arab Palestinians want nothing more than to return to their former home towns where the majority of their families reside. Israel could assist these families, as we have pointed out before, by offering to buy out any properties owned and an additional, and potentially large, resettlement bonus. Such an offer could be proposed to stand at what is the maximum that will be offered for a full year and then have it decrease by ten percent each month after the initial year which would have it ending in just under two years. Such a program would need to be made after order had been restored and any of the old guard and their presumed successors had been removed and sent into exile. The one thing which is obvious is that as long as any of the Arab Palestinian leadership which would refuse to permit any of the Arab Palestinians to opt to take the money and leave would need to be removed before they decided that taking such a deal, or even being rumored to having considered such, becomes yet another capital offence for assisting the Jews. This and reforming their education system to one which has normal subjects without classes on hating the Jews and reclaiming their sacred invented nation of Palestine, a nation which has never existed in all history and never had Jerusalem as their capital city as the only people to ever use Jerusalem as their capital city has been the ancient Hebrews who exist today as the Jews of Israel. With time, the population might become a normalized people once again living in a functioning economy and honest governance. That alone would be a great triumph for the future of the Arab Palestinians as their society now has an ailment consisting of the youth being indoctrinated to hate Israel and the Jews, being taught that it is their religious and sacred duty to liberate a homeland which never was. Turning their society from one steeped in hatred and celebrating death to one which is open and accepting celebrating life and all its possibilities will be liberating giving them hope for the first time since the return of Arafat in 1993. We will see whether Israel is ready to take a gamble on liberating the Arab Palestinians from the downward spiral that terrorism and government based on stealing from the people while blaming the oldest scapegoats in the planet, the Jews. All this to come in the post Mahmoud Abbas Middle East.


Beyond the Cusp


1 Comment »

  1. Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.


    Comment by OyiaBrown — February 11, 2019 @ 4:36 AM | Reply

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