Beyond the Cusp

February 1, 2019

Iran Collecting All the Best of Friends

 

One of the questions Israelis with friends in Europe and North America hear much of the time asks if we worry about our enemies. By enemies, they most often mean those nations on our borders and, of late, they add in Iran. Our answer usually goes something near to we worry more about those professing to be our friends than our declared enemies. We tell them that we know exactly what to expect from each of our enemies but it is our friends who we cannot predict how they will act according to stimuli, react to the changing world, handle pressures we see coming at them and proactively act to avoid some of the worst problems they are soon to face. Our friends find our concern for their well-being and safety often misplaced and think we should be far more concerned about the threats being made against us and all the moves by the United Nations to single us out, Ireland passing legislation criminalizing trade with businesses run by Jews in the Shomron, the one-hundred-thirty-thee nations which make up the “Group of 77” electing Palestine under Mahmoud Abbas as their leader to represent them (146 countries voted for this Resolution whilst only three – Israel, the U.S. and Australia – voted against, 15 countries abstained and the remaining 29 states did not vote) or the recent American elections where anti-Israel positions took center stage. This is all not to mention the European Union, Britain about to elect Corbyn as Prime Minister, France playing with their own BDS movement, Italy doing the BDS thing as well with the rest of “free” Europe and Canada having a growing BDS movement north of the border. Why should we worry about the Arab world who only threatens to kill us when our friends are dancing with the devil, so to speak, and flirting with slowly cutting their relations with Israel. When I warned of this many decades ago while still in the United States, people claimed I must be losing my mind or I required psychiatric help with the number one answer always being, “America would never turn against Israel. That is the one constant that Israel can rely upon.” What scares me even worse is that most Israelis believe that to be true as well. Our advice to both of these camps, be afraid, be very afraid because what is coming will be a blizzard affecting United States-Israel relations and they are going to become very cold indeed, just wait a decade or two. Most of our friends are sliding in a direction which will lead to their separating from Israel and eventually turning to the other side unless some awakening occurs and they realize the dangers facing their societies and governances.

 

Meanwhile, allow us to start with Iran and the problems coming from that front. We just recently wrote an article titled, “Iran Threatens Israel with Missiles from Lebanon and Gaza” where we spoke about General Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran who was also making threats of the overwhelming military troubles which would befall Israel were she to “act stupidly.” What is always amusing is the constant use of the phrase, “Israel act stupidly,” which is almost always preceded and followed by all forms of threats. Well, now we have another Iranian military genius threatening Israel. He is the Deputy Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, and he recently warned Israel that, well, in our words, Armageddon is perched on our doorstep and ready to pounce in order to, “wipe out wrongdoers,” and further, “Today, the Zionists know that in any war they start, Lebanon would not be the only battlefront. They know that a new war would lead to their annihilation.” And then there is the list of nations which he claims are on the bandwagon and fully behind the Mad Mullahs of Tehran. Perhaps before continuing, we should allow you to hear him and if you do not speak Farsi, MEMRI has translated the video.

 

 

Wasn’t that just one of the most breathtaking speeches you have ever heard from an Iranian military commander. So, he informed Israel specifically and the world indirectly that Lebanese, Iraqis, Afghanis, Pakistanis, Iranians, and Yemenis are in Syria, and that is the new, modern, combat tested, trained and ready to go “united Islamic army.” Isn’t that simply the most terrifying thing you have ever heard in your lifetime, well, us neither. We thought about half or so of these nations are ones where Iran has all but taken over complete control. Let us see what we can see as Lebanon is basically run by Hezballah, Iran is rapidly and already, for all intents and purposes, is western Iran with a fair number of IRGC and regular Iranian Army units assisting with their war on the Kurds and the Sunni Muslims. Moving right along to Yemen, there are numbers of IRGC and Hezballah fighting troops and trainers working with the Houthis to rule that country. Syria is the crux of the fighting where Iran is calling in every and anybody to assist them in propping up Bashar al-Assad as the ruler of Syria and Iranian puppet even if they are required to kill the vast majority of Syrians and destroy most of the nation’s infrastructure to do so. The main concern of Iran has been their taking control of Lebanon (which they have controlled through Hezballah for decades now), Iraq, Syria and Yemen in order to establish their Shiite Iranian Crescent across the Middle East (see map below and the star in the Iranian Crescent covers Mecca and Medina which they have often claimed they will soon control). That leaves Afghanistan and Pakistan who Iran claims are there defending Bashir al-Assad and ready to pounce on Israel if the Zionists act stupidly and start a war. These Iranian military top brass sure are convinced that Israel is about to jump up and start a war with one of their friends. Of all the nations above which Iran appears to be unified with, the only ones in the correct proximity for Israel to attack are Syria (what’s left of it) and Lebanon. So, perhaps that should be explored.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

The first item one need know is that the forces fighting in Syria with Iran and Hezballah are irregular units from Afghanistan and Pakistan, not troops provided by these two nations. These are forces which worked with other bands which most nations recognize as the terrorist parties assisting Iran with their efforts against other groups such as the Kurds and, at some future point, potentially the Russians and Turkey. Currently Turkey is sweeping norther Syria in what they informed President Trump was their final sweep to eradicate the last vestiges of the Islamic State. The unfortunate result of the Turkish military actions is that they appear to have an identification problem, as they are more often sweeping through Kurdish towns and cities and murdering civilians as well as fighting the Kurdish Militias, some of the same militias which assisted with ridding Syria of the Islamic State and with whom the United States was allied. Turkish President Erdogan has stated his desires to include Aleppo and Mosul into Turkey as the beginning of the reestablishing of the Ottoman Empire and he will be the first Sultan of the Second Ottoman Empire. Dreams of grandeur and it is all nothing but smoke. Meanwhile, many people have the mistaken thought that Iran and Russia are allied in their efforts to assist Assad. This is untrue, as they both desire the Syrian Mediterranean ports. They both see themselves as the main ally who controls Syria. The Russians would settle for just the ports along the western coastline and Damascus for the international airport to use for supply and troop movements. The Iranians desire these as well as the southeastern border with Iran to provide them a road link through which to send their missile carriers and other heavy weapons. For Iran, Syria is the direct link for providing Hezballah with better weaponry, particularly guidance systems for their larger rocket making them into guided missiles, and with placing their IRGC troops with their required weaponry perching them on the northeastern border of Israel as well as the northern border of Israel with Lebanon. Iran also desires to have a longer border with Saudi Arabia which is behind their Iraqi and Yemenis efforts giving them the ability to threaten the Saudi Arabian oil fields which lie largely in northeastern Saudi Arabia as well as a front along the Red Sea in order to threaten Mecca and Medina, another prize the Iranians covet. This places another country at risk of the Iranian hegemonic plans, and that is Jordan. Were they to take control over Jordan, this would give them a border with Israel stretching the entirety of the eastern Israeli border, the entirety of the northern border of Saudi Arabia allowing them to strike from the north and south along the Red Sea in order to take Mecca and Medina, the two holy cities of Islam.

 

Final Conflict for potential nuclear standoff after Iran starts producing its missiles and warheads which is likely already going on in secret enrichment warhead factories buried under Tehran hospital

Final Conflict for potential nuclear standoff after Iran starts producing its missiles and warheads which is likely already going on in secret enrichment warhead factories buried under Tehran hospital

 

The Iranian reason for wanting to control Mecca and Medina is that this would remove the Saudi Royal Family claim to be the protectors of the Two Holy Mosques, one in Mecca and the other in Medina and the claim which also keeps the family Saud in power. The oil fields are in the largely Shiite region of Saudi Arabia, thus prime pickings for Iran using IRGC infiltrators to start the revolution, allowing Iranian forces to succeed in taking these regions upon which the royal family would be getting on their aircraft and heading for safer climes. Again, this would make Jordan a crucial prize which would make the Iranian efforts more likely to succeed. Another prize which Jordan provides is their border with Israel and its proximity to the Palestinian Authority. Iran has attempted to gain influence over the Palestinian Authority with no success for quite some time. Other means which the Iranians have for taking control of the Palestinian Authority would be Hamas, which they are currently supporting with arms and technology, largely rocket motors and weapons technology allowing Hamas along with Islamic Jihad to become a more dangerous threat to Israel. The play which Iran has been nurturing has been claims that they wish to be the best friend the Arab Palestinians could ever have. Part of this effort has also been to urge the Arab Palestinians within, who make up at least seventy percent of the population, to rise up and remove King Abdullah II allowing Iran to assist for which they would become another Iranian puppet. Were the Iranians able to cause a revolt in Jordan, expect for IRGC infiltrators to assist arming them and giving them intelligence and other assistance providing Iran with the inroad they would require to control Jordan. From that vantage, Iran would use IRGC and Hamas terrorists to infiltrate the Palestinian Authority regions and potentially back one of the people who believe they should be the next leader after Mahmoud Abbas has moved along. This could potentially place Iranian sponsored terrorists with opportunities to launch rockets into Tel Aviv and cause Israel some inconveniences. Iran has stated their desire to be the next Caliphate and to become such a hegemonic power across the Middle East and then either Europe or Northern Africa Making Shia Islam appear to be the strong horse and Sunni Islam to be fading. Through such events as they have designed to make their claim believable, which includes destroying Saudi Arabia and possibly taking control of the Muslim Brotherhood, changing it from Sunni to Shia, and using them to take control of Egypt as well, they honestly expect for Shia Islam to overtake Sunni Islam and have the majority of current Sunni Muslims convert along the way. With Shia Islam having between ten and thirteen percent of the number of Muslims and Sunni making up between eighty-five and ninety percent of Muslims, Iran has a very ambitious concept of their future.

 

For the immediate and foreseeable future, Iran still is attempting to consolidate their control in Iraq, have established a formidable military presence in Lebanon, are definitely a force in Yemen and Syria, two nations largely destroyed from civil strife and fighting, and beyond that they are currently stymied. Iran knows that should they attack Israel they would be playing with fire. Israel has proven their ability to strike at Iran whenever it pleases Israel, and Iran is apparently powerless to prevent such operations. The two main examples were the Stuxnet virus, a supposed joint venture with the United States aiding Israel, and the removal of half a ton of records of the clandestine nuclear programs conducted and still ongoing by Iran which assisted President Trump pulling out of the nuclear agreement with Iran. Iranians also are aware that Israel has sufficient missiles and other weapons with which to lay waste to most of Iran should Israel so choose. This would probably never occur, as Israel has no argument with the majority of Iranian citizens, it is just the government which is a problem. Further, the Iranian plans for Saudi Arabia would run afoul of the United States, which for as long as President Trump is President, there would be no telling as to what his reaction would be to an Iranian assault on Saudi Arabia. The same situation exists with Jordan which would also potentially have Israel involved. This leaves only one problem concerning Iran, and it is an enormous one.

 

The biggest problem with Iran is their nuclear weapons. We do not say their nuclear weapons program, we firmly believe they already have nuclear weapons. Iran presumably was working on nuclear weapons for over twenty years and the world deliriously believes that they were muddling through in the dark and never figured out how to make nuclear weapons. They may not have weapons as sophisticated as Russia or the United States, but regular nuclear weapons they very likely have, and have a fair number. They have been working on the missiles necessary to carry them and have a number which easily reach Israel and beyond. Iran has very likely had sufficient nuclear missile warheads to satisfy their slowing their pace until they developed the technology for manufacturing ballistic missile ready thermonuclear warheads of the miniaturized versions developed by Russia, China and the United States (many suspect Israel). The less powerful weapons Iran probably, if not definitely, possesses would be sufficient to destroy any target which they could detonate one bomb close enough to the intended target. A city such as Tel Aviv would probably require three or four such weapons of the variety and strength of what was dropped on Japan during World War II. When considering the Iranian tactics of swarming their enemies with smaller and fast attack craft, one might expect they have a similar set of tactics for the use of their nuclear weapons. They probably figure that over three-quarters of their launched missiles would operate sufficiently as to reach the target area. Then about half would be intercepted. Another ten percent would fail to detonate and some additional warheads would have guidance problems and miss the target to be sufficient distance so as to be ineffective. Using such figures and a pessimistic calculator, this would require the launch of around twenty missiles to be assured of the destruction of a Tel Aviv size city. At the very least, Iran very likely has sufficient nuclear missiles to destroy three or four central districts to any major population center which their missiles can reach. That alone is a frightening thought, but we in Israel disregard such threats.

 

Ranges and Sizes of Iranian Ballistic Missiles

Ranges and Sizes of Iranian Ballistic Missiles

 

There is a reason that Israelis do not dwell or much concern themselves with threats such as Iran. We have threats which are even more real and they occur almost daily with some terror attack from the Arabs in the Shomron from the Palestinian Arab population and less so but even from Israeli Arabs. Why would we worry about things which are very unlikely to happen immediately when we hardly worry about the terror threats all around us. Further, the government and IDF address the Iranian attempts to build a credible threat in force within Syria, especially nearest to the Israeli border. Hezballah has somewhere near or over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets poised to fire into Israel, so why worry about Iran which is so much further away. With Iran, counting the terrorist forces from Afghanistan and Pakistan which are assisting them in Syria as claims of allies with the countries is laughable. That is how desperate Iran is to impress the world to take them seriously. Small hint to world, take them and Islam seriously as though Iran may not reach the point where they could conquer the world, Islam could reach a point where it will be near impossible to save Europe in another quarter century and the United States soon after that. The United States could become an adversary or at least no longer providing any military aid and ending the sale of military equipment to Israel far sooner than Israel is currently prepared. Israel needs to start to develop whatever new weapons systems they require for the future, specifically aircraft and naval vessels as it is very probable that by 2050 Israel will need to be completely self-reliant militarily even down to the missiles fired by aircraft and ships to artillery munitions and grenades and bullets. Israel should also begin to manufacture her own anti-tank weapons and end her reliance on European nations, the United States, Canada and even Australia. Israel may soon find that she is very alone, and that would be great as long as we are also left alone to progress and live in peace. There is an old adage that if the Arabs all put down their weapons, bombs, warheads and ended the terror threats to Israel, there would be peace but if Israel were to act similarly and put down her weapons and defenses, there would be no Israel. We know what the threats and challenges are and Israel will do all she can to mitigate the threats and live in peace developing wonderful new things for the world to share as what good are the greatest gifts if they are never given away?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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3 Comments »

  1. Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.

    Like

    Comment by OyiaBrown — February 28, 2019 @ 8:31 AM | Reply


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