Beyond the Cusp

February 25, 2019

Israeli Elections Update Three, Future Coalitions

 

The main result of elections is the eventual composition of the governing coalition. There have been rumors claiming, as we did immediately after elections were called, that Bibi Netanyahu will form a coalition with his Likud Party and the left centrist merged Lapid-Gantz Blue White Party. The purpose behind this is to repeat the same mistakes of both Gaza and South Lebanon, except this time it will be the Shomron. Most of the border will fall along the anti-terror barrier dividing Jerusalem once more. We believe that instead of a total partitioning of all of East Jerusalem, the region to be gifted to Mahmoud Abbas will merely include the predominantly Arab neighborhoods with the Jewish Quarter and the entirety of the Temple Mount remaining under Israeli rule and control. There are those who have claimed, as has Naftali Bennett, that this plan was worked out between Bibi Netanyahu and President Trump when they discussed the future of the region after President Trump announced the pulling of American forces from Syria. We cannot validate nor refute these claims but believe they are simply used to add fuel to the fire, so to speak, of Mr. Bennett’s claims. As far as Bibi Netanyahu is concerned, this is the path to a legacy and a Nobel Peace Prize. Unfortunately, should this come to pass, it will almost certainly have even worse results than did the retreat from South Lebanon giving Israel Hezballah and over one-hundred-thousand rockets and missiles pointed at every inch of the nation and the Gaza Disengagement which resulted on Hamas and Islamic Jihad launching rockets over half the nation at will. Both of these borders are now basically controlled by Iran who can yank Israel’s strings at will and from either border, or eventually both borders at once.

 

Bibi Netanyahu, Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz

Bibi Netanyahu, Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz

 

There could be a completely different result from the election with the Blue White Party receiving the plurality of mandates and forming a coalition with Labor, Meretz and other left wing parties and anyone else as required to reach the magic number of sixty-one. The wildcard for this proposition are the Arab parties who also have a coalition which will likely get between eight and twelve, possibly as many as fifteen or so, mandates which could make or break any attempt by the Blue White Party to form a ruling coalition. We spoke about the change with Jewish Home and National Union bringing Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) into their electoral list at the urging, more like brow beating, of Bibi Netanyahu in yesterday’s article. We had predicted the result of such a merger and these results are coming true in spades. Rabbi Benny Lau made references against the merger, which is fine as he is an avowed liberal who loathes teachings of Rabbi Meir Kahane (ז״ל), but he made references against fellow Jews which should never be used. Referring to Jews using the terms he utilized is an insult and a disgrace to the memory of millions of Jews and their surviving families. But what about the coming elections, who will win and who will lose, that is the big question.

 

Rabbi Benny Lau

Rabbi Benny Lau

 

The elections end results are going to depend heavily on how three parties do and whether or not Bibi Netanyahu desires to go with a right wing government or follow a similar path as his Likud predecessor, Ariel Sharon (ז״ל), who took a large block from Likud and merged with groups from across the political spectrum forming the ill fated Kadima Party and executed the Gaza Disengagement under pressure from President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. This was an epic disaster, and that is an understatement. Before Prime Minister Sharon, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak made a desperate and ill-planned withdrawal from Southern Lebanon leading to Hezballah filling the void left behind and now perched on the northern border as a Sword of Damocles over the entirety of Israel. An interesting aside is that both Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon were generals in the IDF, which kind of puts a large dent in the argument by Gantz that with him you get the wisdom of four IDF Generals of which many were Chiefs of Staff. With the results of the previous generals, including Chiefs of Staff, we are not sure that advertising having a plethora of generals is all that wise though there are those who believe that nothing could ever go wrong with such people running the nation. We only hope that such is so.

 

Former General Benny Gantz has designs on being Prime Minister which begs the question, where does he stand on such things as the Oslo Accords, a Palestinian State and the Gaza and Lebanon disengagement/withdrawals. Well, wait no longer, as he gave a recent interview since his declaration to form the Resilience Party where he answered these questions on the record telling Yediot Ahronot the following, as reported here.


“The central question is a security question. We need to ensure the State of Israel’s security. Now, we have here a question of interests – and even Bibi [Netanyahu] said this at his Bar-Ilan address [in 2009] – that we don’t want to rule over anyone else. We need to find a way for us not to be governing other people.
“The [Gaza] Disengagement was carried out based on the State of Israel’s policy concerns. All the sides involved got high scores for the ability to not tear the country apart when [the Disengagement] was carried out.
“It was a legal undertaking, which was adopted by the Israeli government and carried out by the IDF and the settlers in a way that was painful, but also good. We need to take the lessons [we learned there] and apply them elsewhere.”

 

His running mate is Yair Lapid, a longtime supporter of forming a Palestinian Arab State within the Shomron, even at the price of having to relocate the Jews residing there. Both he and the general, as well as at least two of the other generals the list presents, have made references to hard choices and difficult but necessary concession and even that if we would just find the right balance and sacrifice lands, then there would be peace. Why we would have peace after retreating to the same borders which had produced terrorism before the Six Day War and the borders which resulted in the Six Day War and expect that they would bring peace and tranquility this time is simply folly. The plans which have been bandied about have an even darker and more adverse side than simply retreating. The repeatedly proffered idea would be to retreat to the anti-terror barrier plus east Jerusalem but allow the IDF to remain in order to prevent terror attacks and to gather intelligence to protect the people of Israel. Now, there will be those who ask what is wrong with such an idea. Well, the main problem is that was tried before in a place called southern Lebanon and it led to serious repercussions. Once Israel retreats behind whatever line which is chosen, that results in Israel surrendering those lands to the Palestinian Arabs and whatever government they choose or end up having over them. We tried the first thing, the disengagement in Gaza, which resulted in three terror wars thus far and who knows what will come in the future. There have been rockets, suicide bombers sent while presumably going for medical treatments, infiltration tunnels, incendiary kites and balloons, colorful balloons with poisoned candy attached, colorful balloons with explosives in the shape or inside toys with contact detonators and who can even guess what will be the next exiting plan by Hamas, Islamic Jihad and their masters in Tehran to try and murder Israeli civilians. So by pulling back and granting them lands to make a go of a state, we have repeated Gaza only with lands which overlook Tel Aviv. This means that these lands would no longer be Israeli in any means as compared to now where all the land is by right still belonging to Israel, and giving them a state rules out Israeli ownership. Leaving the IDF or any forces within what is, for all intents and purposes, Palestinian Arab land outside of Israel, the IDF would be an occupying force and this would play well for all those whose lives are thrilled by scourging Israel. The IDF would be facing almost daily attacks either from what would have been terrorists but now could rightfully claim to be freedom fighters attempting to oust a foreign military from their country. The young Israeli soldiers who would die as a result would mount and there would be another set of mothers of the IDF demanding to bring their sons home. Eventually, between domestic demands and foreign pressures, the IDF would be pulled and then there would be an Arab terror state siting overlooking Ben Gurion International Airport with shoulder fired anti-aircraft weapons along with lines of rocket launchers with line-of-sight for targeting downtown central Tel Aviv. The borders would be returned pretty much along the former 1949 armistice lines known as the Green Line. We discussed the differences between the Green Line and the anti-terror barrier here. The map shown at the link depicts the entirety of the security zone and much of the areas colored in blue will be surrendered and the furthest west (left) area is where the border will result being drawn. Such a plan would leave close to three-quarters of a million Jews homeless with over half also losing their place of employment. Further, after the Arabs destroy everything built by Israel, there will be tens of thousands or more Palestinian Arabs without a place of employment. Any plans for allowing the Israeli companies to remain operational and run by the Palestinian Arabs will fail just as the greenhouses in Gaza were destroyed and the pipes and other materials used to build rockets and launchers.

 

Tel Aviv Now Before Green Line Peace and Tel Aviv the Day After Green Line Peace

Tel Aviv Now Before Green Line Peace
and
Tel Aviv the Day After Green Line Peace

 

The above image is equally as likely to be the result even should the anti-terror barrier become the border as they are almost indistinguishable, especially since any protest by Arab interests, including Palestinians, which petitioned the Israeli Supreme Court and resulted in a decision for the route to be redrawn to comply with whatever demands were demanded. So, simply replace Green Line with Security Barrier and the rest remains the same as the Arabs will, in either case, hold much of the Judean hills overlooking central Israel and over three-quarters of Israeli infrastructure and about the same percent of the population. The one thing which will become true is that should such a plan be instituted and the Arab Palestinians be given their third nation, with Jordan and Gaza being their first two, soon after the above picture becomes reality and rockets are sent raining down on central Tel Aviv and a couple of the skyscrapers are brought down; the hue and cry from even the most pro-Arab Palestinian leftists will demand that the entirety of the Shomron not only be retaken, but for the Arabs to be pushed from the land and it be cleansed of any Palestinian Arab presence. This is what it will take as when the Gaza Disengagement was taken as a means of giving the Arab Palestinians a chance to prove they could have a viable civilized nation, the Bush administration promised that Israel could just retake Gaza and end the problem. Anybody looking at Gaza today can see how well that idea was implemented, as Gaza remains a terrorist stronghold for Hamas, Islamic Jihad and their Iranian sponsors. The probability is that within the first year after such another horrific disengagement is carried out, then Hamas will either overthrow Abbas or win in a landslide if elections were to be held, which is why Abbas never allows elections as such would throw him from power and his life would be endangered. But somehow, governments seem to never learn from their past mistakes and insist that this time they will do it the right way. When people insist that such is delusion and not logical, they disregard those warnings and will always claim that those claiming it will not work are just too negative and have no faith. When the predictions prove correct, then they claim that you are a racist or fascist and with the echoing media repeating these claims, in time, they become accepted fact and then you can be ignored when they go to try the same failed policies elsewhere. The problem this time is they are taking the two largest errors of the past and rolling them together to make the way they will get it right this time. Sometimes all you can do is shout from the hills and shake your head sadly as those who never seem to know better make the same tired mistakes of the past, and this is true of for too many ideas and concepts which history should have wadded-up and tossed into the trashcan of history. Somehow, bad ideas seem to be repackaged and sold as new every so many years and the youth and the fools gravitate to them as if they will bring in all the promises made the last time are repeated and swallowed whole by the public. Somethings are simply too sad to even rant against, but what else can one do?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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