Beyond the Cusp

June 30, 2019

With Trust Broken Trust Renewed Again?

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:56 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,


Thursday evening there was a nonevent taken place with Egypt again as the intermediary. Israel and Hamas signed an agreement for an end to the balloon and kite terrorist attacks as well as ending rockets, mortars and presumably all other forms of terror attacks utilized by Hamas. In return Israel extended the fishing distance into the Mediterranean Sea and other considerations. One might ask why Israel would enter once more into such an empty agreement knowing full well that as soon as Hamas or Islamic Jihad are ready or receive directions from Iran, the attacks will start anew. That is presuming that the attacks actually are terminated at all. The nice thing about this round of trust given-trust broken was that we did not have to wait all that long before the lack of reality of the treaty was revealed. Within twenty-four hours of signing the truce, there were approximately seven-thousand rioters launching balloons and setting numerous fires across the southern border with Gaza. Hamas will inevitably claim that these were ground swell demonstration which they are unable of preventing as they are an expression of the unease amongst their population. This is an unease promoted and paid for by Hamas and their sponsors in Iran. These attacks have grown beyond the ability and probably beyond the desire of Hamas to control. Hamas instigated these attacks as a means of employing the restless youth who seeking employ were unable to find anything in Gaza. This is due to the Gazan economy all but in total collapse.


It is well known that Hamas has made one of their main concerns to be fomenting attacks on Israel. This is what led to the last war over the launching of hundreds of rockets daily for over a week before Israel responded militarily. Since that confrontation, Israel has deployed the Iron Dome missile defense systems which have made rocket attacks almost harmless. The Iron Dome is capable of intercepting multiple rockets at a time. Their remarkable interception rate and ability to project where a projectile will land has permitted Israel to all but nullify rocket attacks from Gaza. Hamas initially responded with border riots and terrorist infiltration tunnels. Israel developed a system which was capable of detecting the tunnels and the ones beneath Israeli territory were destroyed. This led to the launching of incendiary kites. These fire-kites worked well but their range was limited, thus the next phase was launching these devices using balloons. These carried the explosive charge further into Israel and spawned additional fires away from the former fires still being extinguished.


Hamas has already claimed after the last treaty that they could no longer control these fire launchings as they had grown beyond their ability to control. Hamas had absolutely no difficulty in suppressing the large scale riots and protests against their misrule of Gaza but are unable to prevent a group of youths and young adults launching balloons. This will be their excuse behind the several thousands of rioters who flocked to the border launching incendiary laden balloons into Israel sparking a record number of fires for a single day’s protests on Friday after the truce was signed. Hamas has allowed these rioters to continue with their assaults on Israel leading to the end of the last truce which did not last twenty-four hours and this time is proving to be no different. Hamas signs truces with Israel not intending to alter their violence against the Jewish State but to use as an additional bludgeon to beat Israeli resistance to a halt. They have no intentions for slowing or stopping the arson attacks on Israel and will, with time, return to their tunneling beneath the border with infiltration tunnels intended for the murder and kidnapping of Israeli civilians and to launching rockets at Israeli communities including Haifa, Tel Aviv and other cities over time.


Negotiations with Hamas have proven ineffective in preventing or ceasing their violent activities targeting southern Israel. Time and again these conflicts have escalated until a larger and more encompassing Israeli interventions is launched. With Israel heading for elections again in September, Hamas believes this is the time to take advantage of Israeli avoidance of large-scale operations in Gaza or elsewhere. Their feeling is that Israel will remain vulnerable at least until the elections as Bibi Netanyahu is not anxious to have to explain to the public his actions when the majority of Israelis are not affected by the Hamas escalation of attacks. This will, unfortunately, merely act to encourage Hamas to escalate the situation climaxing the week before the elections. Their hope is that the Israelis will react by electing a government more conducive to granting them even further concessions. Concessions are a reward and will never act as an inhibiting factor for a deterrence curbing the violence and rioting. The unfortunate reality is that Hamas, like all of Palestinian Arab society and too many of the Middle East region, only understand strong military actions designed not to retaliate but as a preventive measure which had removed their ability to strike at Israel. Their current form of attack with balloons and kites would be impossible to inhibit unless Hamas has an interest in preventing their taking place. That has proven something elusive to the Israeli leadership as if they have forgotten every lesson of past dealings with Hamas.


Hamas Demands Arming Terror with Money

Hamas Demands Arming Terror with Money


Further, Hamas is demanding that Israel permit their monthly payments of millions of shekels be permitted by Israel. These are the funds which Hamas required in order to pay their people, this according to Hamas. What Israel need learn from Mahmoud Abbas and apply to Hamas is that the first and most important payments on their payrolls are those willing to harm Israel and potentially murder Israelis. None of the payments will be used to prevent violence against Israel but rather to pay for additional violence against Israel and the stockpiling of rockets for future wars on Israel. This has been their exact modus operandi and will continue as such for as long as Israeli leadership is willing to play the patsy to Hamas. There are two tactics which would prove far more effective but which apparently Bibi Netanyahu is unprepared to use. The easiest which would simply cause Qatari money to find a new route into Gaza. They would likely be required to bribe Egyptian authorities and even then, such would be an unlikely path as Egypt has caught Hamas assisting with attacks on Egyptian personnel in the Sinai Peninsula. The other tactic is straight forward, military might to be used to smash their tools of war. There exists another means of deterrence which would work which has yet to be applied, targeting the areas where the leadership of Hamas reside and the stores, restaurants and other entertainment facilities such that the leadership finally pays a price. The main reason for the temerity in this area is because they would not desire to open up such an area where Hamas terrorists might target them. The final means of ending the problems arising from Gaza, be it Hamas, Islamic Jihad or any other terror entity would be to drive all of Gaza from Israel depositing them in the Sinai Peninsula. Such an operation would require making preliminary arrangements with the Egyptian government so they could be prepared to arrest or otherwise detain the Hamas leadership and military commanders. What is so ridiculous is that were Israel to follow such a path, the world would condemn Israel and blame Israel for the incarceration of the Hamas top leaders, both military and political, as if there is any real difference. The difference is that were Israel to incarcerate the Hamas and Islamic Jihad leadership, the world would be screaming for their release. By having Egypt do so, the world would scream for Israel to arrange their release and Israel could simply claim that no such plan has proven acceptable to Egypt. The world would not bother attempting to force Egypt to release these terror leaders as they know it would have no effect. But the Israeli leadership refuses to escalate the conflict to such a level.


The honestly sad reality is that eventually the depopulation of Gaza will be the final result of the Hamas, Islamic Jihad et al terror war against Israel. Their education system, summer camps and their entire education system is geared to the production of future terrorists rather than educating for a normative society. Their emphasis is not on Mathematics, sciences, language and other areas which are required for a productive and normal society. This is not the aim of Hamas and their allies. They are interested in producing armies of terrorists ready for that day when they will be capable of bring down Israel. Their dream is to reach a similar state which Hezballah has assembled in southern Lebanon and is using to assist Bashir al-Assad in Syria where Hezballah has well over one-hundred-thousand rockets and missiles with many capable of striking anywhere in Israel. This is partly why Hamas has allied with Iran as it was Iran who armed Hezballah. This is partly why Hamas continually demands that their region allowed for their fishing fleets be expanded. They know that by increasing their area for fishing, they increase the area for smuggling in such weapons making Israeli deterrence and preventive measures far more difficult to apply. Their dream is to be gifted an international airport through which tons of such military provisions could be transferred without the opportunity for Israel to prevent such. The same applies to their insistence to have their ports open and is the essential demand of the flotillas which regularly attempt to run the blockade which permits Israeli inspection of provisions before passing them on into Gaza. Currently, these inspections usually take under twenty-four hours with most provisions passed through the same day as they arrive. Stopping the so-called humanitarian supplies is another means of harming Hamas as any provisions which the terrorists do not have to expend funds on is simply more money for terrorism. Israel has permitted on several occasions for building supplies to be permitted into Gaza which should have rebuilt all the damages from the wars. Almost nothing has been rebuilt as these building provisions have been used for building bunkers, tunneling networks, underground rocket firing positions and infiltration tunnels. It has been figured that Hamas could have build several schools and apartment buildings with the materials used in a single infiltration tunnel. Multiply that by the dozens of tunnels and all of Gaza could have been made immaculate instead of remaining in ruins. There are literally two Gaza’s, the one where Hamas leadership lives and the one where they place their rockets and mortar positions knowing that return fire will destroy the area surrounding the position (see images below). This is why we have often suggested that instead of return fire solely on the launch site, but also lobbing a small artillery round at a single target in the thus far pristine regions and start allowing the difficulties caused by this constant state of war to be shared by those responsible. The reality is that each rocket fired into Israel, every balloon launched into Israel, every kite carrying explosives into Israel and every tunnel dug under the border into Israel all originated with the leadership of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. We may find that some rounds of violence from Gaza may have been ordered even further away in Iran which opens up a plethora of future possibilities.


The Two Gazas with One Pristine and the Other Ravaged

The Two Gazas with One Pristine and the Other Ravaged


The entire Arab Israeli conflict will have only one of two eventual results. The obvious one is no more Israel, something much of the world appears not only willing but anxious to bring about, and the other is a defeat brought forth by Israel such that no Arab for a thousand years would even give a glancing evil look in the direction of Israel out of fear for their life. Such results have historic precedence. In almost every case where the Arab forces have been prevented from extending their rule further has been as the result of a military defeat which was unequivocally severe and ubiquitous for preventing their reorganization and returning to attack again. Such defeats in history include but are not limited to the Battle of Tours, the Spanish Inquisition, the ending of the Second Siege of Vienna when Polish King John III Sobieski relieved Vienna bringing his entire army south for the effort after reaching agreements with his neighboring countries to not invade while his forces performed this holy duty, and of course World War I marked the end of the Ottoman Empire. Granted, Israel will not be required to go to such extents but the world will still howl as if Israel had committed a war crime unprecedented in human history.


Never mind that virtually every battle and war before the modern era would have constituted a litany of war crimes committed by both sides as making warfare a more benign action is a recent insanity. This has led to the concept of proportionality, which President Trump just used to justify his recall of the strike upon Iran. There has never been any war where proportionality was utilized by either side, let alone the victorious side. The overriding use of force in warfare has been an attempt at imposing disproportional damages, casualties and defeats upon the enemy. Some small examples of such acts of disproportionality include the nuclear bombing of Nagasaki and Hiroshima at the end of World War II, the Rape of Nanking by Japan in World War II, the Bataan Death March during World War II, the Shoah extermination of over twelve-million undesirables by the Nazis in death camps, the use of poison gas during World War I, the entrance of the machine gun (Gatling gun) in the American Civil War, the Roman conquests, the Greek conquests, the Persian conquests and on throughout history warfare has been a contest of which side was capable of imposing the greater amount of disproportionality inflicted upon their enemies. Whenever proportionality is used, it is usually to impose severe constraints on one side preventing them from actually defeating the threat facing them. This is the main reason for its use all but exclusively against Israel. There were no intents at proportionality in the recent efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Balkans or any of the conflicts which have taken place since World War II which brought in the modern era with concepts of war crimes, crimes against humanity and proportionality as the means of preventing wars from reaching actual conclusive endings which has served to actually prolong conflicts as since neither side was able to inflict a complete defeat using disproportional force after their enemy was defeated but refusing to surrender, their having to stop due to world pressures only led to the conflict resuming at a later date leading to far more damage and higher casualties than had the initial efforts been permitted to reach a permanent solution. The other thing which we have noted is that proportionality has only been demanded from nations considered to be Western nations. This has been applied to India in their running conflict over Casmir against Pakistan. There were some who were worried that during the period that India had nuclear warheads and Pakistan did not, that India might actually use these weapons to impose finality on their conflict with Pakistan. Unamusingly, once Pakistan also had nuclear weapons this fear of their use bringing on a disproportional end to the conflict dissolved and was never equaled by the fear of a nuclear war breaking out and both sides decimating the other’s civilian populations in many of their major cities. But evidenced by the virtual universal use of disproportionality is the United States coming in second and Israel the easy winner as virtually every action taken by Israel is condemned for being disproportional. There have been people and groups who have bemoaned the fact that Israelis are being saved by the Iron Dome and Gazans have no such system; thus, they have demanded that Israel provide Hamas with the Iron Dome systems. This is the end result of the logic of proportionality and these are the ends of ridiculousness the world has reached in their hatreds towards the Jewish State. There will be an end to this conflict some day and the world can only pray that Israel proves the victor as any other result will spell doom for the world.


Beyond the Cusp


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