Beyond the Cusp

August 13, 2019

2020 American Elections as Seen from Israel

 

The consensus here, from those we meet and greet daily, is that President Trump will win reelection. There are but two questions on which there is a fair bit of leeway in the opinions. The first is by how much with the range being anything from a squeaker to President Trump moving the bar even higher than President Ronald Reagan has set it. The other is about the cheating which is widely seen as inevitable but still unable to alter the final results. What the main disagreement over the cheating is less about the amount of cheating but more about whether those conducting the campaign to potentially steal the election by fudging the numbers in numerous battleground states will be caught and spend any jail time. Here at BTC we believe that in the areas where the cheating could occur are regions where nobody working for the predominant party would ever be charged with tampering so nobody is going to jail. Some we talk with believe that so much cheating will be attempted in order to sway the elections that it will be beyond the abilities of anyone to ignore and people will be held as responsible and face trial and jail time. Most everyone believes that those at the top, the Obamas and Clintons, will escape without as much as a scratch just as they have always done and will continue into the future unless somebody with iron-tight security decides they need to answer to the American people. So, why even discuss the elections if it appears from here across half the globe that President Trump will be reelected and everything else will be pretty much exactly as it has been in the past? Because there are rumblings which some over here are worried for the America they thought they knew, as what they are reading now depicts some massive changes and many not for the better.

 

The thought of a civil war in the United States, something which a number of editorialists have written, is a definitive possibility or even an inevitability. This type of information does not sit well with the average Israeli’s view of the United States. Partly this is the fault of Israelis who have this idealist view of the United States while others have this 1950’s or 1960’s view where people line their lawns with white picket fences and everyone cooks out on their bar-b-ques every Sunday afternoon in the summer and wave to one another while shoveling snow in the winter. They were not born during these times and grew up listening to their parents rave about the greatness of America and how it almost became the Promised Land. Most Americans know the old tales about the streets are lined in gold and anybody can make it if they just work smart and hard. These old, tall tales are actually believed by some and trying to tell them that things are no longer like that is not an easy row to hoe. It is definitely an uphill struggle to break many Israelis of such beliefs just as it is near impossible to get them to understand that the United States will not be there for Israel in the not too distant future. It is difficult to even prove that the United States aid to Israel did not begin in earnest until the 1970’s and President Nixon was the man who started the aid resupplying Israel over the protestations and advice of many of his advisors. The shocked reaction we receive when we warn that the United States aid to Israel is not going to last forever is as fascinating as it is frustrating. The only thing which Israelis love, respect and expect more from than the United States is their beloved Israel. This may just be what will be necessary to do without United States aid as that will be a day of panic here in Israel despite the reality that Israel should be capable of not only surviving that day and what comes afterwards but will very likely thrive in that future. Currently, Israel is holding up her end of the deal and not producing combat or other aircraft in exchange for the United States taking care of that area. This promise started when Israel shut down her plans for production of the Lavi fighter jet. This deal will end when the United States decides that Israel is just that much of too expensive a friend to continue the relationship. But there is more to the coming break-up, and it has to do with the new additions to the Democrat Party who, along with numerous members of the Black Congressional Caucus and those behind and driving Black Lives Matter, Antifa, CAIR, BDS and numerous other leftist NGO’s and activist organizations. Israelis are having a rough time figuring out where these groups came from unless they are simply in denial that these groups exist.

 

Many Israelis reacted with a degree of shock over the statements made by Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez when these items became more well known. True, the Tel Aviv region is more worldly and mostly ignore much of what they learn because they are the heart of the Democrat Party support in Israel. These are largely the former supporters of the Labor Party in Israel and who are now the main support for the Blue-White Party of General Ganz and Yair Lapid. But even a number of these left-wing Israelis are appalled at the reports about Rashida Tlaib and even more perturbed over the antics and statements of Ilhan Omar which were widely reported before their recent visit. There was a degree of overreaction to their visit. This was largely due to the simple fact that everyone knew why these two came to the Promised Land, and it was about as far from a goodwill mission as any can get. Further, with the way these three with little other support have all but taken over the Democrat Party which has been evidenced by the statements against Israel made by virtually all of the Democrat Party Presidential hopefuls. This brings us to the Democrat Party Presidential hopefuls and their apparent potential for posing any challenge to President Trump. Well, at least this is the general feeling over here. What is frightening is the potential that serious violence could break out after the elections should President Trump be reelected. Of course, we in Israel, who are seemingly unable to elect a government as the nation is so evenly divided, we have little room to talk, at least the United States has a system which almost rules out such troubles. We just had to take the worst ideas of all the European, mostly western European, parliaments and added our own twist just to make everything dysfunctional.

 

Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

 

Probably the worst, and thus the most challenging, problem which could erupt after a Trump victory would be rioting in the cities led by BLM and Antifa. Of course, any reaction to the election will be blamed on President Trump, doubly should he prove victorious as we predict. What will complicate many of such situations is that the President cannot intervene unless invited by the governor or potentially the mayor of the city. So, we can see the situation where the rioting is in cities where their mayors and their state’s governors are all democrats seeking to blacken President Trump for winning his reelection bid. The President cannot act without either his assistance being requested by the Mayor or Governor or President Trump declares the city a national disaster area which would also blow-up in his face. No matter what President Trump attempts to accomplish, he will be called racist or fascist as we explained here a while back. If he waits for the city or state to make a request, they can stall while the mainstream media attempt to blame President Trump for his obvious inaction and lack of caring for these cities in distress. Should President Trump declare any of the areas a federal disaster zone in order to intervene, he will be cast as uncaring for these cities because they did not support him and they are people of color. He will be in a damned if you do, damned if you don’t type of situation where whatever you do is wrong according to the New York Times, Washington Post and the rest of the plethora of leftist media. But a civil war will not break out even should President Trump win reelection and especially if he should not prove victorious. Nobody who makes such decisions desires to see a civil war break out as they have far too much to lose and the risk of losing everything would be far too great. The powers that exist on both sides of the isle, Democrat or Republican, Leftist or Conservative, Capitalist or Socialist; any way you slice the pie, any war, especially a civil war, runs a very high risk of destroying the pie or largely diminishes what pie is left to cut.

 

Unrest is a completely different problem. There are two very different kinds of unrest, that which was called for by an organizer and that which just rose literally from grassroots. The first can get beyond the organizer’s ability to control which then transforms the unrest into a warped version of the grassroots unrest. The grassroots unrest is the more difficult to put out as it had different leaders throughout the separate breakouts of unrest. Grassroots unrest lacks a single leader which makes negotiations next to impossible. The only way to restore peace in a city torn apart by social unrest is through superior force deployed either by the police or National Guard if required. The trouble is finding the sufficient but least amount of force required to end the unrest and restore peace to the community. This is likely the aftermath of the coming 2020 elections. But the United States will continue as the world super power and a wealth producing country which a mostly capitalist economy. While, for the time being, in Israel the September election in Israel, our second one this year, where we, if the polls prove correct (they rarely do), the coming elections will once again fail to provide either Likud or Blue-White the capability of forming a governing coalition as the Arab parties refuse to join any government and this makes reaching the necessary sixty-one mandates, as with the approximately thirteen Mandates which are not going to join any coalition, impossible. This requires that to make a ruling coalition, one requires reaching sixty-one mandates out of the remaining one-hundred-seven available after subtracting the Mandates of the Arab parties. This makes it necessary to claim instead of just over fifty-percent to needing slightly over fifty-seven-percent, almost ten-percent more than was the original plan when the system was implemented. Then either Israel will have to hold another election and continue doing so until somebody proves victorious and the Knesset forms around one side or the other. Hopefully, Israel will reach and form a government before the United States election results are known in November of 2020. The American election which should worry Israelis is the 2024 elections when the Democrat Party top tier people will vie for the nomination and the Republican Party will no longer have Trump or anybody even remotely similar and much of their base could end up returning to their hibernating position simply working and doing so despite any and everything. Then Israel might find herself on the wrong end of American foreign policy, and even more likely should people like Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez still hold any power. One need remember that Ilhan Omar received posting to the Foreign Affairs Committee, a very high and powerful position which is seldom if ever given to an entering Congressperson. Ilhan Omar is being groomed for higher office once the Democrat Party takes the White House. This future is what Israel should rely upon and why Israel must finally break free from dependence on the United States and learn to stand on her own two feet. The two graphs below show that American aid to Israel has remained level at approximately three billion dollars while Israeli GDP has grown from almost nothing back in the early 1969’s when Israel was struggling and when United States aid to Israel started in earnest, Israeli GDP had reached approximately thirty-five-billion dollars, which means that American aid was equal or just under one third of the total Israeli gross domestic product for that year. Currently, Israeli GDP stands at three-hundred-plus-billion-dollars making the current percentage the American aid presents is barely over one percent. That is right, a mere 1.02% of GDP, such an amount by comparison means that Israel will survive just fine without American aid monies and will be cut free from her dependence and subordination to the United States.

 

United States Israel Aid (Military)

United States Israel Aid (Military)

 

 

 

But there is another bonus which will come when the day arrives that the United States cuts from Israel leaving Israel to fend for herself. Israel could benefit from the end of our mutually beneficial relations and Israel will continue to treat America as an ally and friend until such is made untenable. Further, Israel would then be required to design and produce her own aircraft just as she manufactures her own Merkava tanks. While Israel has to start to design her own aircraft, she should do the same for their infantry rifle and change to a heavier and more powerful round which still has extreme range, designed for desert warfare but equally adaptable to urban warfare. The development, production, assembly and other various necessary jobs will be created and these will be well paying jobs producing taxes which will increase the GDP and the general wealth of the country. Israel might even decide to construct a launching facility for rockets into space. The facility would be largely underground protecting the rocket and launch facility. The possibilities are virtually endless and developing these weapons and aircraft along with the Merkava, and if Israeli aircraft are as well adapted to the needs Israeli missions call for, it would be a desired aircraft on the open arms market. This will be the Israeli future simply because the United States, despite protestations, will break relations with Israel. The writing is on the wall already written there by none other than President Barack Obama and how he treated Israel and especially his drafting and permitting to pass United Nations Security Council Chapter Six Resolution 2334. The next Democrat President is very likely to build on that reputation and attitude against Israel. Even former Vice President Joe Biden was forced to step back from offering ironclad backing at the United Nations and claiming they will need to be fair to both sides, often the code that means Israel is going to be called on to sacrifice for peace and then all promises will be broken and Israel will have gifted something to the Arabs for nothing in return and no longer even have a reliable friend in the United Nations and the Security Council in particular. But very few ever heed our warnings and most believe we are simply overly concerned about things which could never happen. Maybe we should take bets that what we claim will happen by 2033 after the 2032 elections. But first the September Israeli elections and hopefully a government which is at the very least strongly Zionist and then the 2020 American elections which will probably reelect President Trump and then the 2024 elections when everything will be completely up in the air as the Republican Party has no candidate who could and would do as President Trump has done either as a candidate and as President. It will be interesting to see who the Republicans choose for 2024 and beyond as the United States reaches into the future.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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