Beyond the Cusp

September 19, 2016

Hillary and the Hajj, Really

 

What do you do if something is failing to provide the viable result desired and there appears to be no way forward? You invent an alternative and go your own way and find a new path to your goal. This year the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was facing a great insult and embarrassment as the Saudi Royal Family had dealt him a great insult. There were arguments as to whether the Hajj would permit the Shiite practices to be performed within the most definitely Sunni nation of Saudi Arabia at the Hajj they are sponsoring in Mecca. The answer came fast and hard, no way on the blessed earth of Allah would such practices be permitted. The Iranians and the Saudis resorted to bringing up conflicts, especially those where Iranians died or were injured, particularly by Saudi security police at the Hajj and the end result the Saudi Royal Family took the hardest road possible and declared the Supreme Leader to be a false Muslim and an Amgushi, that is, not a Muslim, a heretic, a follower of the pre-Islamic Persian religion disguised as a Muslim. This was the greatest insult and the last straw. The Iranians answered insult with insult declaring that they suspected Saudi Royal Family of being a remnant of the Jews who once resided in the times of Muhammad at the Khyber Oasis and were slaughtered by Muhammad and his fighters. They further their insult with a cartoon of an accursed tree pictured and described below. The Iranian and Shiite response to the Saudi “Amgushi” was expressed by insulting and derogatory drawings that appeared on social media, such as the one below:

 

The Tree Cursed in the Quran Used as a Shiite anti-Saudi drawing Sourced from Shiite Websites

The Tree Cursed in the Quran
Used as a Shiite anti-Saudi drawing
Sourced from Shiite Websites

 

This is the description of this Iranian use of the “cursed tree” provided by Dr. Mordechai Kedar in his article “A joyous holiday and a sad world” published in Arutz Sheva.

 

This drawing is based on a quote from the Koran that talks about a cursed tree and shows the tree with the words “The Family of Saud” on its trunk while towards the bottom of the tree the following words appear: “Let the entire world know that the Family of Saud are the reason for the Arab and Islamic catastrophe (“Naqba”). The root of destruction and ruin in this world.”

To the right of the tree are the words: “The Family of Saud – the tails of the Jews,” expressing the Shiite rumor that claims that the Saud family are actually descendants of the Jews who lived in the Khyber Oasis until the 7th century and who pretend to be Muslims to this day but are really Jews in secret despite the Hadith that declares that “there are no two religions in the Arab Peninsula.”

The leaves on the “cursed tree” are Wahhabism, explosive-filled vehicles, crime, slaughter, destruction, incitement, ethnicity, terror, explosions, “takhfir” (declaring Muslims to be heretics), Jabhat al Nusra, division, ISIS, al Qaeda, Boko Haram. On the left of the tree there is a green Saudi flag with a sword, but instead of the Shahada (the testimony – the Islamic creed that declares that there is no G-d but Allah and that Mohammed is his prophet) that is on the flag, it says “May Allah curse the House of Saud.”

 

Back to the Hajj and the resulting rift and separate but presumably equal Hajj’s as the imperfect solution to the perfect problem. The similarities will become evident with the final descriptions. Let it remain for now that the Iranians are holding their own Hajj, a solution used in previous centuries to solve such impasses, in the Iraqi city closest to Mecca, Karbala. There is another reason for this site as it was there that in the year 680 C.E. a military unit of the Sunni Umayyad Caliph Yazid ibn Muawiyah carried out an attack where Hussein Ibn Ali, the leader of the Shiite rebels, was murdered and ritually executed by being beheaded. This is the ultimate Naqba, catastrophe, in the Shiite form of Islam and is the point where the two forms of Islam became forever enemies. This is the response to the insult of referring to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei as being an Amgushi.

 

But first a little explanation of how this may also be a similar situation as may be faced soon with Hillary Rodham Clinton. We have all heard how Hillary Clinton has unbelievably high negatives and the sole reason she is even competitive is due to Donald Trump having even higher negatives before the American peoples. Were the Republics Party to be running virtually any other candidate, they would be leagues ahead of Hillary in the polling data. This is not to insinuate that they would actually have such a lead, but they would poll as having such a lead. History has taught that nothing is done until the last report of vote counts in each state are finalized, until then the Devil is in the details. Equally reported is that were Trump facing virtually any Democrat, including or especially a complete unknown, Trump would be being trounced in the polls and the election would be declared over by the mainstream media. So, what if the October surprise is the Democrats replacing, or at least appearing to replace, Hillary Clinton with a far more electable candidate? The Democrat Party could let it be known in the second or third week in October that Hillary Rodham Clinton had fallen so ill that she has been rushed to a private and undisclosed hospital and is unable to continue the race or even to serve as President. Then in a similar manner as the Democrats once before had pulled off in Minnesota with Senator Paul David Wellstone who died right before the elections in a plane crash. He was replaced immediately on the ballot by former Vice President Walter Mondale who then proceeded to lose the election. So, what if it is decided that Hillary is too ill to continue the campaign or serve as President?

 

In most states the Democrat Party would appoint her replacement and in other states her name would remain on the ballot but the Party would claim any vote for Hillary is a vote for their chosen candidate. Come Election Day it is found that the Democrat Party had been remiss or unable to replace Hillary on the ballots such was expected due to her still being amongst the living. Again a huge campaign would go forth that by voting Hillary you were actually voting for her replacement. We have to face that almost any Democrat other than Hillary and a select few, any other Democrat would destroy Trump, or at least that has been the polling and the Democrats are well aware of this. So Hillary is declared out for the count and in theory replaced by an electable Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden or Senator Elizabeth Ann Warren. Of the three it is probably Joe Biden who would be the weakest and even he would stir up support and enthusiasm which Hillary has not even been able to buy at her rallies.

 

And then, with Christmas fast approaching and Hillary Clinton in name only won the election with the understanding that the alternate candidate would be the one to become President there comes a miracle, Hillary has had a full recovery coming from the sole place such would be possible, a recovery deemed in Heaven above. Suddenly the voters find themselves hoodwinked as Hillary Rodham Clinton rises as a Phoenix from the ashes blazing in her full flamed glory taking the oath of office. Election Impossible accomplished in fine bait and switch fashion. President Hillary Rodham Clinton will have been elected and takes her victory lap from the steps of the Capital Building down Pennsylvania Avenue to the White House before the cameras of all networks and her coronation proceeds as if nothing strange was committed. Those hoping for Trump to win or desire anybody but Hillary in the White House; even the dog catcher from Podunk, Idaho, had better pray for Hillary to suddenly become obviously healthy and thus not so infirm that this ploy would be believable.

 

Phoenix Rising from the Ashes Blazing in her Full Flamed Glory

Phoenix Rising from the Ashes Blazing in her Full Flamed Glory

 

How many out there living in the real world believe that such a pirouette bait and switch to fool more of the gullible American left public and too many others could happen; especially if the substitute is a woman, first woman President, hard to pass that one up, then reveal the reality of their sick and demented desires to crown Hillary Rodham Clinton with the historical moniker of being the first woman as President. This was promised to her when she lost to President Obama, then a Senator like her, soulless and also offering an even more tempting first; Hillary was promised not just to be the Democrat Party candidate but to be the all-American candidate who would be swept into the White House riding a wave of popularity and support. Well, yes, something went wrong along the way, the person they have to work with is Hillary. Even with such a handicap, the Democrat Party made a promise and they will keep that promise no matter what lies and deceits they will have to commit. Come Hell or high water, Hillary Clinton will be coronated, if not now, then at some time later. Hillary cannot be permitted to die and not have been President of the United States. People opposed to Hillary Clinton should be prepared and expect the most unexpected and seemingly ludicrous steps to be taken and anything legal or not to be committed in order to have Hillary Clinton be the next President as it has already been written and thus must be done. As Yul Brenner said in the 1956 movie “The Ten Commandments,” as Pharaoh Ramses II, “Let it be written. Let it be done.” That was the royal decree of the ancient Egyptian ruler and is now the code for the Democrat Party, and they have writ large that the next President will be Hillary Rodham Clinton; now they just have to get it done by any and all means necessary, expect no less.

 

Yul Brenner from 1956 movie “The Ten Commandments,” as Pharaoh Ramses II “Let it be written. Let it be done.”

Yul Brenner from 1956 movie “The Ten Commandments,”
as Pharaoh Ramses II “Let it be written. Let it be done.”

 

So, just like may come with Hillary, the Hajj is being declared to be made to a different place which will be established by the Shiite leadership in Iran as being just as holy and just as righteous and just as commanded by some reference from the Quran through certain precedents. This Shiite Hajj may become a permanent fixture for as long as the Iranians control their puppet state in the southern half of Iraq and their hatred of the Sunni and especially the Saudi Royal Family who the Iranians consider heretics and pretenders. Should this rift be settled as a matter of contention simply by directing the Shiites to make the Hajj to Karbala the world can heave a sigh of relief and continue on with no more and no fewer problems than before. The real problem is this war of words between the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the Family Saud, has just elevated significantly. The decree to have an independent Hajj for Shiite Islam from Sunni Islam has formalized the rift and the ancient disagreement between the two largest forms of Islam. This is simply the latest of flare-ups between the Sunni and the Shiites since they had different opinions on the correct succession after Muhammad died. This argument dates back to before 680 soon after Muhammad died when Hussein Ibn Ali was murdered.

 

The difference between the two groups is exemplified in the story behind the “Twelvers,” a sect of Shiites who are awaiting the return from his hiding place of the Mahdi, the Twelfth Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi. Muhammad al-Mahdi was appointed as the next replacement of Muhammad, the founder of Islam, but went into hiding as the majority form of Islam, the Sunni, was annihilating the rebellious Shiites at every opportunity and particularly executing their leaders. This Twelfth Imam presumably has been hiding for quite some time without having lost any of his strength and mental acuity and will arise from his hiding place and lead the Shiites to a glorious victory over the Sunni and then conquer the world. For the Twelfth Imam to return, the entire known world would be in chaos with devastation of the highest order. The Twelfth Imam would appear from his place of hiding, many believe that hiding place is a well in Qom where they have established a Mosque so he can pray upon coming out from hiding. They have also built a beautiful roadway for the Twelfth Imam to utilize to take him to the Capital City, Tehran, where he is to meet the Supreme Leader and together plan the conquest of the Sunni Muslims, unbelievers of Shia Islam amongst Muslims as they are heretics. This would include almost all of the cities of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States as these are predominately Sunni nations. Then they would proceed to those they considered idolatrous such as Buddhists, then the Jews, finally Christians and then would come the purging and purification of the Shiite Islamic family. The process would continue until the world had been perfected and every person was a full believer supporting the Five Pillars of Islam, Shahada or Faith, Salat or Prayer, Zakāt or Charity, Sawm or Fasting (during Ramadan), and Hajj or Pilgrimage to Mecca, which for Shiites has become Pilgrimage to Karbala.

 

Depictions of the Return of the Twelfth Imam

Depictions of the Return of the Twelfth Imam

 

What is more worrisome is that Iran has made known their displeasure with the Saudi Arabian Ruling Family considering them to be apostates who blaspheme Islam, especially Shia Islam, and are deserving of death or something worse, life as a disgraced Muslim walking the Earth in continuous shame. The Iranians have also stated their desire to liberate the northeastern provinces of Saudi Arabia where the vast majority of their Shiite minority reside. The fact that this area also contains ninety plus percent of the oil wells has nothing to do with this conquest but they must keep this property and not just liberate the Shiites but instead of having them come home the Iranians plan to incorporate these lands as a part of their Shiite home making them and the oil wealth all Iranian. When one adds that Iran very likely is a nuclear armed nation despite, or some say because, of the great efforts of President Obama and his Secretary of State John (Scary) Kerry as well as a large effort by former Secretary of State and potentially next President Hillary Clinton before Kerry, that makes any confrontation between these two Muslim power states in the Middle East even more of a danger. One need remember that the Saudi Royal Family invested in the Pakistani nuclear research and bomb development. They did not do that from the goodness of their heart but instead made an agreement that the Saudis would pay for the Pakistani efforts and actual production of a nuclear weapons stores providing these stores be made available to the Saudi Royal Family should the need arise.

 

One overtly aggressive move too far by Iran and you can bet some cargo aircraft will leave Saudi Arabia, fly to Pakistan, stay a few hours, and return to Saudi Arabia some few tons heavier. These planes will either be taking actual routes established as passenger or even freight lanes which are active or will fly with their transponders deactivated, by accident, of course. These flights if they have not already found some nuclear devices coming in the hold of normal flights between the two nations, will even the playing field and make the chance of a nuclear exchange in the Middle East a definitive probability. Should open war be started between Saudi Arabia and Iran, one can bet that it will spread bringing Yemen, Iraq, Hezballah and any other Shiite forces which can be brought to bear facing the nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) which includes the Gulf oil states and Saudi Arabia plus Egypt and Jordan and one might expect to see some Turkish forces making this a more general Middle East War and one such without Israel, imagine that. These declarations of intent to join the fight as necessary will be the actual initial declaration of war even if fighting has been engaged for months. The pooling of available resources will initiate a war on a different level.

 

Such a development will signal that both sides feel they are not in an advantageous position so they will announce a list of allies in the region and prepare special weapons squads for deployment. One side, probably Iran, will introduce the use of chemical weapons and biological agents as well. This will spark a similar if not stronger response from the Saudi Royal Family. This might be the point where the initial use of nuclear weapons will be used, but not as expected. They will be used to cleanse their own lands where any biologic weapons have become ultimately effective and the sick are infecting the healthcare workers and all they meet before they turn too sick to even stand. This transmission will necessitate drastic action to contain the spread as such an agent cannot be permitted to reach any heavily inhabited regions. Nuclear cleansing of an infected region is a likely means of destroying the pathogen and in its own way curing those on the ground. This use of a nuclear weapon to cleanse the area can also give that nation the reason to use nuclear weapons then on the enemy claiming that the nuclear weapons dropped to destroy the pathogen was actually a nuclear attack by the other side. It matters little which country introduced nuclear weapons to the conflict nor how they were deployed nor the reasons; all that matters is the first one using them will not be the last one using these ultimate weapons. Once the nuclear weapons atop missiles and tucked within fighter-bombers fly, the game changes forever as this will prove one can use nuclear weapons as long as they are limited to a range of tactical nuclear weapons. Needless to point out that even these in and of themselves may not be the final weapons used and there may come a point where a nation with thermo-nuclear weapons uses these weapons of last resort, the modern city-killers with selectable power settings. Then it may be worse and the first thermo-nuclear weapons without the selectable yield technology, and it has but one setting, destroy all within your range or likely area.

 

The real fuel for this conflagration may start originally as Iran’s desire to impress their own hegemonic rule over the entire Middle East. Many have interpreted that to mean Iran would strike at Israel first and hardest, but this fight is not about the differences between Iran and Israel, this is a fight over who represents Allah. This fight between Sunni and Shiite will be limited initially but has the potential to spread far and wide. Would such start the next World War? That is the sixty-four billion dollar (adjusted for inflation) question. The one reality is as being the fight over who is the real representative of Allah, we can expect there will be no means for ending the war until one side has been completely and utterly destroyed, and therein lays the problem as it is next to impossible. Such a war will be a war to end all wars as it may decide the future for everyone once Islam achieves its real goal, world conquest and the subjugation of all people within. Then they can begin perfecting the world by ridding it of improper thought and possibly of the impure animals starting with hogs and dogs. With Allah presumed to be in support of both sides and Allah being unconquerable, there can be no situation so dire that prayers cannot move mountains, or can they? Split the sea, easy, the Ten Plagues, part of a year’s work; lead the Israelites to the Promised Land, well, all in its proper and good time; and As far as Hashem choosing which side should win, that will be left to Allah as Hashem probably has no desire and will allow others to decide this fate. Should the violence start to spread, then Hashem might be forced to choose a nation to assist or at least allow to stand outside the growing hostilities.

 

The Hajj and Hillary Rodham Clinton are flashpoints signifying evil bodings potentially for our world and the societies within. The splitting of Hajj destinations can only further divide two groups alienating the already alienated. Both sides are waiting for the other to blink such that they can possibly gain some advantage. Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump and the conservative Never Trump’ers are dividing the nation into smaller and more hostile divisions Balkanizing the United States. Should the United States also become so divided that the different political factions all go their own way, there will be no more United States and instead there will be the federated entities that were America. No more super power under the Stars and Stripes, just a loosely held group of arguing children, man-child’s all looking like adults but acting like spoiled brats refusing to reside or abide by anybody holding a different opinion. That is what the political correctness of Hillary et al will bring to the United States with micro-aggressions and perceived slights where none exist and children raised never knowing what it means to lose because there are no trophies for losing efforts once you leave your safe zones at your chosen university. What will these young adults, the future leaders, do when they run into people who have different thoughts and can use them to actually think, not just feel good about oneself. Hajj being split and America being split, neither is a good or welcomed sign.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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June 5, 2016

Final Weeds in the MENA Garden, Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Iran

 

In a nutshell Syria has a fair measure of the powers in play in the Middle East and into North Africa. In addition we will also need to mention areas centered on Nigeria where Boko Haram is centrally located making war on Nigeria and all her neighboring states. Then there is Yemen and two straits, Bab el-Mandeb and finally the Strait of Hormuz which are all parts of the Iranian designs which start with the Shiite Crescent from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea and control of the two most important waterway choke points in the Middle East affecting everything from the eastern tip of Asia to the Western tip of Europe including the British Isles. But it all starts with Syria and the last block to the Shiite Crescent.

 

Iran sits conveniently at the eastern edge just beyond the Arab Muslim Empire and as such is mostly a different peoples east of the Zagros Mountains which have served as a defensive barrier thousands of years. This was the secret of the Persians and why despite falling to Islam they remained separate and distinct. Still, if Iran was ever to claim the right as the head of a Caliphate they were going to need to establish two things, a connection unobstructed to the Mediterranean Sea and thus full access to North Africa and South Europe and a mass alteration of Islam making Shia Islam dominant over Sunni Islam. The first is a major step towards the second. The hope was once Iran had access to the Mediterranean cutting across the Middle East gaining direct or implied control over much of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon they would appear, as Islam claims to be the superior, the strong horse and thus could influence many that Sunni Islam was weak and Shia Islam was dominant and thus start the conversion of Sunni Muslims to Shia Islam and thus become the dominant force reestablishing both the historic Persian Empire and taking over the new Caliphate and the lead position over nearly two-billion Muslims.

 

Iran had taken control of Lebanon when they took sponsorship of Hezballah which initially was a universally recognized terror group which was fighting the Christian militias and had also fought against the IDF using terrorist strikes in an attempt to wear Israel down and force their capitulation and return to south of the recognized international border known as the Blue Line. Eventually a left leaning government bent to the protests and declared an end to what they called a tragic period in Israeli history completely forgetting the reasons, the valid reason that brought Israel into southern Lebanon. Israel replied to the hue and cry of the Christians of southern Lebanon as Syrian troops invaded Lebanon aiding Hezballah who were facing being slaughtered and Israel responded to an intense threat of a human disaster in the making as had already been committed to the initial Christian communities near the Syrian border. Israel, Ariel Sharon in particular, was blamed for a revenge strike on Sabra and Shatila massacring the Muslims which were carried out by the Christian militias and not the IDF. Still the world could not blame the Christian militias as they were irregular fighters and as such were not sufficiently organized with a command structure and as such their silence made finding those responsible became impossible so the work picked the next best thing, Israel. Europe had what seems like a default setting that if it happens in the Middle East, then when in doubt, blame Israel.

 

Once Israel retreated from southern Lebanon the Lebanese military was supposed to move in with United Nations oversight. Neither occurred and in many instances the United Nations aided Hezballah in their efforts to set up a series of tunnels as well as arms caches and command and control bunkers. This eventually led to another Israeli incursion into Lebanon after Hezballah kidnapped, and subsequently murdered three Israeli soldiers and killed five other soldiers at the point of the ambush inside Israel when they caught a patrol vehicle off guard and unsuspecting any incursion across the border from Lebanon. Iran uses Hezballah as their threat against Israel and has armed them to a point which is truly frightening as Iran has stocked Hezballah with at least one-hundred plus long range missiles and uncountable limited range rockets which have as much as a fifty kilometer range. Amongst the longer range missiles are stores of Zilzal-2 and Fateh-110 provided by Iran bringing them into Damascus and shipping them over land often on their own mobile vehicles. This is the threat Iran would threaten to unleash on Israel had Israel actually struck at Iranian nuclear sites and likely will be the first strike against Israel whenever Iran decides that they will attack the Jewish homeland. The total is well over two-hundred-thousand rockets and missiles from ten to twenty kilometer Grads, Fajr series, Shahab series and Ghadr missiles. Then there are the mid-range Scud series of ballistic rockets and then the more advanced guided missiles which the most advanced has two stages and Iran can strike Israel from Iran with these longer range Missiles so Lebanon can not only strike Israel but also northern Saudi Arabia and Egypt as well as all of Turkey and anywhere within Syria or Jordan and much of Iraq. With these longest range missiles stationed in Iran and Lebanon the range brings them to command coverage over the entire Middle East and beyond, a definite threat to the heart of Sunni Islam, exactly what Iran envisioned as their way to claim command over all of Israel. Their problem, Syria collapsed and nobody can claim complete control over Syria as well as over Iraq, the two breaking Iran’s Shiite Crescent in two.

 

Iran is not the only outside power with an interest in Syria. The most straight forward national interest belongs to the Russians who have one main port at Latakia and potential other locations along the Mediterranean shoreline which provides them a warm water port with easy access to the Atlantic Ocean. The Russian plan is likely to reposition a fair share of their Black Sea naval forces to the Syrian ports thus placing them beyond the Bosphorus which could easily be closed any time that Turkey might decide they are upset with the Russians. The teetering of the relationship between Turkey and Russia became very evident a few months ago when Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet claiming it had flown into Turkish air space, something very likely as Russia has been bombing locations in support of Bashir al-Assad who has lost control over much of the nation he once ruled unchallenged. Now there are a number of militias and terror groups each commanding their own parts with Assad, the Kurds and Islamic State have the largest locations under their control. Other areas are controlled by the al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda offshoot, Free Syrian Army, Jaish al-Izzah, Levant Front, Alotfecat Brigades, and offshoots divided into Syrian Opposition-al-Qaeda network, Federation of Northern Syria, Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant or Islamic State. Each of these groups have so many offshoots that it becomes cumbersome to even begin to list them but for those who desire a detailed list one can be found here With al-Assad opposing these groups are the remains of the Syrian Army, Russian Naval and air support, Hezballah and some Druze militias are fighting in support of Bashir al-Assad whose control is limited to the westernmost areas of Syria including Damascus and the port cities which the Russians are defending with occasional air attacks flown against the terror forces but usually avoiding the Kurds and Islamic State and striking the weaker forces which al-Assad might be better poised to defeat.

 

Military Situation in the Syrian Civil War Areas of Control  by Major Force Divisions as of June 3, 2016.

Military Situation in the Syrian Civil War Areas of Control
by Major Force Divisions as of June 3, 2016.

 

The Kurdish Militias are holding the northernmost areas largely against the Islamic State. Turkey has provided bombing targets used for the United States air strikes as President Obama micromanaging their actions by putting their orders for strikes to Turkish intelligence. This has resulted in many of these strikes instead of targeting the Islamic State side of the conflict line are instead striking the Kurdish side making the situation more favorable for the Islamic State. The saving grace was that the Russians protested the NATO air strikes as interfering with Russian air strikes and set where the United States and Turkish fighter jets are restricted to a corridor which has actually favored the Kurdish forces. This became serious after Turkey shot down the Russian Fighter Jet. What is not discussed publically is the agreement between Russia and another air force in the area allowing for Israel to conduct tactical strikes in response to any attacks against Israeli forces on the Golan Heights. This was negotiated between President Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu in Moscow early in the Russian intervention. This has proven necessary a number of times as the different forces have intentionally fired on IDF troops damaging vehicles and causing some injuries which required at times a more serious response than a couple of artillery or tank shells as a position required removal. These strikes barely make comment even within Israel but there have been some reports in a few of the smaller nationalist and Zionist sources online and in print.

 

Likely the most notable forces have been those of the Islamic State due to their early success largely in Iraq. They took control of the Sunni northern and central areas bordering southern Syria as the mostly Shiite Iraqi army forces simply fled or attempted to melt into the public. Their difficulty was that many of the Sunni civilians who these troops had tormented got their revenge turning over those Shiite soldiers who were guilty of such inter faction fighting. The Islamic State after their fast conquest of largely open areas and a few key cities in Iraq have now settled into defensive posture as they were close to overextension which had allowed for some key cities and towns being reclaimed. The Islamic State holds large open areas in Syria which are mostly desert and open scrublands which were sparsely populated. Their supposed massive victories were somewhat overblown in the hyperventilating Western media as they were hungry for a big story so every gain of the Islamic State, even those which were made in areas where they were unopposed were claimed to be grand expansion of their military control. The main story they should have never strayed from was the Islamic State’s brutality. This alone is the reason that the Islamic State deserves being liquidated by whatever means are necessary and this fight should be carried out largely by indigenous troops. Any support by Western forces should be limited to providing air support and precision strikes on such targets as command and control facilities and fixed positions as well as taking out the Western armor and other Western equipment. Other than such air support and potential cruise missile or drone strikes the Western ground forces should not be placed in harm’s way as such assistance is more often not appreciated and often used as reasons for protests and resentment. They should not risk being dragged into what may prove to be a prolonged number of operations in order to clear out pockets of resistance. As far as Syria, that too should not require any Western ground forces and be left to indigenous forces with support from Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Iran and potential financing from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.

 

Yemen Battle Map

Yemen Battle Map

 

The other front that needs addressing also has an Iranian contingent in Yemen. Iran is also attempting to gain the ability to completely disrupt all maritime trade by holding military threat over two of the most sensitive straights in all of the Middle East, Bab el-Mandeb and finally the Strait of Hormuz. The Bab el-Mandeb cuts off Israeli maritime access from the Red Sea on the way to the Indian Ocean and on to the rest of Asia and the Pacific as well as blocking any use of the Suez Canal by cutting off its southern access. The Strait of Hormuz has a large portion of the world’s crude oil shipping. Iran already holds threat over the Strait of Hormuz as one side of the entire Persian Gulf borders Iran (a huge ‘no duh’). This threat Iran has had and used since the Islamic takeover in 1979 requiring the United States to intervene as well as to bring in minesweepers to clear mines which Iran had strewn as part of their cutting off of the Strait of Hormuz. The Bab el-Mandeb sits off the southwestern most border of Yemen which borders the southernmost Red Sea. This is the other choke point other than the Suez Canal itself. The Suez Canal is safely within the borders of Egypt between the Sinai Peninsula and main body of Egypt which has only faced a force other than Egyptian when Israel held the Sinai briefly in 1956 and for a number of years after the Six Day War in 1967 until Egypt and Israel made peace in 1979. Israel never threatened to close the Suez Canal though it may have been risky using the Suez Canal during the 1973 Yom Kippur War as initially Egyptian troops were pouring across into the Sinai and within a few days after Israel mobilized and struck back were crossing the Suez Canal and for a while held both shores but withdrew back across the Canal into the Sinai after the world demanded Israel cease winning the war and immediately stop advancing on Alexandria and Cairo. Funny, there was no call for Egypt to stop their advance across the Sinai intending to strike into Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. I guess Egypt advancing and defeating Israeli defenders is completely different than Israel advancing and defeating Egyptian forces. Should Iranian Houthi rebels take control over sufficient areas of Yemen and a peace leave the areas in the southeastern end of Yemen then Iran would have access to blocking the Bab el-Mandeb and blocking the Suez Canal which would end all oil and maritime trade with Europe forcing those hardy enough to try having to circle the south end of the African Continent. That used to be a difficult and dangerous route before the canal and the main reason the Suez Canal was built. Iran desires to hold a stranglehold over maritime trade and oil trade thus being able to threaten the world and especially threaten Europe. That is why Egypt is assisting in Yemen and the West had best have an interest in what happens in Yemen, even if not as much in Syria.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 8, 2016

Israeli Possible Futures and American Elections

 

There have been many numbers of articles predicting the fate of Israel should one party or the other take the White House next January. Where this early on it is a bit futile to be second guessing the American people, there are some concrete facts we can observe more generally and some rather specific. The most obvious fact is that Israel will likely fair better with virtually any Republican in the White House than either of the Democrat frontrunners. This has been the trend which has steadily become absolute starting with President George H. W. Bush who was far less Israel friendly than President William Jefferson Clinton. The Republican side is the most undecided; so we will begin with them, though there are some tantalizing consequences for discussion on the Democrat side.

 

The knowledge that Israel would be better served by any Republican than with either Democrat frontrunner is a no-brainer; there are still sufficient untested Republicans which leave things unsettled there as well. The top three caucus winners in Iowa are a case in point. Ted Cruz is as pro-Israel as anyone could ask for and would likely increase whatever aid Israel claimed to have or needs identified by United States Military assessments. Mr. Cruz is also the one most likely to ignore the current State Department being fully aware that the United States Department of State is closer to being an enemy foreign agent than an American foreign policy agency. They are so far into the pocket of whatever Islamic forces appear dominant at any given time ignoring the small fact that the United States can alter that picture with the slightest influence added by clandestine units in their military. Truth be known, even with Russian influence, the United States can alter any reality on the ground should it so choose. The drawback would be risking a general confrontation with the Russians which would require active duty forces in numbers sufficient to require Congressional approval and thus general media coverage. Much of the American as well as European and the World media will bend left as the media is generally more an agent of leftist ideological proponents and similarly predisposed on reporting on the Middle East which had been made evident by their misreporting or bias and slanted reporting on the Arab Israeli conflict which is decidedly anti-Israel.

 

 

Ted Cruz for President

 

Donald Trump for President

 

Marco Rubio for President

 

Next down the caucus line is Donald Trump followed by Marco Rubio. Mr. Trump is completely untested in any and all policy positions and this is even more pronounced on foreign policy. Mr. Rubio is only slightly less of a mystery. The advantage Rubio has is he will likely follow the mainline Republican positions which had become more pro-Israel. Mr. Trump has talked a good game but his true heart is unknown and he is more likely to allow the State Department and the Pentagon along with whatever foreign advisors already exist within the government initially for his positions andthis would produce a period of time where he could damage Israeli relations even further. The question is how and if that would change when he received different and pressing information from the Israelis themselves and other contacts even to include business influence from people he has dealt with and gained a degree of trust. Rubio would also be somewhat untested and known to follow the advice he receives which then would rest heavily on his choice for Secretary of State and the weight he would put on Military and other foreign policy influences against the State Department. The one thing we know is Rubio is the candidate most likely to allow others from the Republican hierarchy to set his foreign policy. The decision, if one is honest, is still out on these two candidates who were definitive winners in Iowa.

 

Of the remaining herd of contenders who at this point are not even sufficient to be second tier and are closer to third tier with the one exception, the sole other Republican candidate to clear 2%, Ben Carson. Dr. Carson would necessarily need to rely heavily on experts and thus his positions would depend completely on who he appoints with the one obvious difference, the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Our feelings are Dr. Carson would be very similar to President George W. Bush than any other predecessor. Hopefully Dr. Carson could look at a map of the areas surrounding Israel and the Middle East and realize that Egypt is currently stable, Jordan is stable with a few big ‘if’s’ sitting on her northern and eastern borders and might need to rely heavily on Israeli intelligence and potentially military support should the Islamic State turn their eyes westward seeking a border with Israel which Jordan would provide. We hear the people with their maps out pointing to the fact that such a move would still leave the West Bank and Jordan River as impasses to an Islamic State assault on Israel. We feel it would be a near certainty that not only Israel would aid Jordan but so would Saudi Arabia and the other member nations to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council). Currently the three main challenges which would face anyone stepping into office would be, in descending order, from the greatest threat down three steps are, Iran, Islamic State and the Iranian controlled terror networks of Hezballah, Islamic Jihad, to a lesser extent Hamas, and soon to be acquired Palestinian Authority which is likely to see a leadership change within two to three years as Abbas and family will take off for safer climes, probably somewhere in the United States under the witness protection agency’s assistance.

 

Ben Carson for President

 

The remainders of the Republican herd who we can take the measure of are Jeb Bush and Chris Christie who both talk a good pro-Israel game but remain untested as being governors they had little to deal with outside their States and were able to leave the big foreign policy decisions to Washington D.C. Both would likely play Republican ballgame until they were able to put their own people in place. This would mean heavy reliance on the State Department and its Arabist and Islamist leaning viewpoint and having a disparaging and deleterious effect on Israeli ability to trust any recommendations initially from the White House. The long term relations would be heavily dependent on the people placed in positions such as Secretary of State, State Department Middle East experts and department leaders, Ambassador to Israel, Ambassador to the United Nations, Security Advisor and on.

 

The Democrat side of the equation has one twist and is otherwise underwhelming. Bernie ‘Feel the Bern’ Sanders has a voting record only the Muslim Brotherhood would applaud. He has proven to have adopted the erroneous leftist view that Israel is guilty of the two greatest sins, colonialization and capitalism. On the latter, Israel can only plead guilty and proud of it. On the foremost charge Israel is provably not guilty. First piece of evidence is the Holy Bible and in particular, Torah. The Torah other than the five books which chronical the early life from Abraham forward of the Jewish people but is the deed of ownership of all the lands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and south of the Litany River, though the current border with Hezballah, oops, sorry, Lebanon will suffice. Don’t you just hate when that happens. Then there are the treaties, Mandates and conferences which resulted in the League of Nations declaration of intent and right of the Jews to their own state located where the Biblical accounts define their Holy Promised Lands. Bernie may have been born into a Jewish family but that little fact never softened his heart nor gave him an appreciation of the necessity for the Jewish People to have a place of refuge where they may defend themselves if again the world decides it is best to either actively slaughter the Jews or simply not lift a finger to save those few where offers are provided for their potential to save such as the SS St. Louis. We can place Senator Sanders on the State Department side and likely to continue the Obama aggressive policies concerning Israel and even supporting an Iranian centric Middle East and North Africa. Bernie Sanders has not proven to be a friend of Israel.

 

Hillary Clinton is an easier story. She really does not think all that highly of Jews. This was most evident when after Bill lost an election she angrily screamed at the campaign manager calling him some kind of derogatory form of Jew with questionable parenting engaged in a lewd act and the campaign manager was not even a Jew so the word Jew in this racy and lewd epithet could only have been included as a further form of insult. This episode has been known in political circles and in Israel for quite some time, since early in Bill Clinton’s Presidency and is chronicled here. Additionally there is e-mailgate, really, e-mailgate? Haven’t we beat the gate means scandal after Watergate back during President Nixon’s administration where Hillary Clinton did a part of the research on this case which might mitigate this and no that did not mean miti-gate conspiracy though somebody from some conspiracy website will see gate and jump ugly to conclusions. Hillary has to win the Democrat nomination and the election or she is toast and the FBI is the toaster. Any normal individual, we know that normal can never be used when the Clintons are involved, would have been detained, tried, convicted, appealed, lost and be serving time in a Federal Penitentiary. Should she lose anything leading to the White House she will be indicted immediately. As far as Hillary and Israel, could we simply state oil and water for the comparison. No, need more? Sure, Hillary is the water and Israel is the highly flammable oil floating above and Hillary lights a match above the liquid line causing all the oil to disappear in a burst of flames and smoke and the water barely gets any warmer. Hillary fully supported every Obama policy regarding Israel and with gusto. Yes, she pandered to the Jews in New York when she ran for the Senate from New York. She wanted to get elected and also have additional campaign funds. Any pro-Israel comments can be placed as purely political and playing a particular audience though probably not that necessary as most of the Jews supporting Hillary do not support Israel either. Having met too many such leftist Jews, by birth only, who line up lockstep in the parade of the Democrat mainstream which has been as hijacked. This claim can be validated by inspecting after terrorists strike and they attempt to mitigate any terror act claiming the person was hijacked and does not represent the Islam they are familiar with. Hillary will only be less of a detriment to Israel because she will pay little if any attention to foreign policy decisions leaving the majority to aids and reliance on the State Department, need more be said. The big question is rapidly becoming who will be placed replacing Hillary should she become toxic either by actual arraignment or simply too much stacked against her and her base, as fickle as it may be, simply melts away and she becomes an unviable candidate. Joe Biden has ruled out a run and in keeping with the first woman President motif, we would suggest they would have Hillary give her delegates to Elizabeth Warren who would sweep Bernie Sanders aside in a tidal change potentially notifiable from the ISS, from the International Space Station. The tide would sweep across the Democrat primary voters and her coronation would take place at the Democrat National Convention. Her likelihood of taking the Presidency would be a complete lock should she decide to choose Bernie Sanders as her running-mate as that addition to her ticket would cement the youth vote, a vote which proved so vital to President Obama. Lastly, Elizabeth warren polls excellently with Democrats and the population as a whole. We expect this last scenario to play out as it appears that the FBI has built their case and are waiting for her to falter to pull the pin on the indictment grenade which would finish her candidacy, something the Democrat main controlling interests just might prefer as they watch her national polling numbers tank.

 

Hillary Clinton for President

 

 

Bernie Sanders for President

 

There remains one critical position which almost nobody from either side is likely willing to take except one. The position is that there is not and never has been an honest partner for peace from the Palestinian Authority and most definitely not from Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Fatah, the PLO or any other Arab influence with the possible exception of Egyptian President Sisi whose efforts to force a reformation for Islam with the transformative impact greater than that of the Protestant Reformation in Europe and definitely more dangerous and threatening to President Sisi’s continued health. One can only hope for his success and pray for his continued health. As far as Israeli policy, any administrations pushing any deal other than the full annexation of the territory of Judea and Samaria with a weeding out of the most dangerous of the terror operatives and their leadership. Additionally, Israel could offer any Arab desiring to leave and never return, meaning never ever return, in exchange for a generous dispensation including purchase of their properties and holdings and a generous award of separation which would likely to exceed their expected lifetime earnings with the understanding that should they or any member of their family return they would be executed on sight. Any pushing of the deader than a doornail policy of two states living side by side in peace, security and prosperity is not realistic especially looking around the Middle East and North Africa and one sees a sea of turmoil and conflict with little comfort in sight for most of these conflicts and with all eyeing attacking Israel as a potentially solid option. How erroneous and self-destructive such a policy decision would prove, the fact it bears mention is a testament to the insanity which has soaked the region.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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