Beyond the Cusp

August 1, 2015

Is the Choice Between the “Deal” or War, Period?

Filed under: Administration,Advanced Weapions Systems,Amalekites,Anti Missile System,Appease Islamic Interests,Appointment,Ayatollah,Ayatollah Khamenei,Binding Resolution,Blood Libel,Breakout Point,Cabinet,Calaphate,Chief Justice Roberts,China,Civilization,Command,Conflict Avoidnce,Covert Actions,Coverup,Dhimmi,EMP Device,Europe,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,Framework,France,Hate,History,ICBM,Inteligence Report,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Military,Iranian Pressure,Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps,Iraq,Iraqi Military,IRGC,IRGC,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Israel,Israeli Interests,Jihad,John Kerry,Lebanon,Leftist Pressures,Meaning of Peace,Military Intervention,Military Option,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Muslim World,No Fly Zone,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,P5+1,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,Russian Pressure,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Saudi Military,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,State Department,Supreme Leader,Syria,Syrian Military,Threat of War,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,US Navy,Victims,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,Yemen,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:31 AM
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The working agreement between the P5+1, and primarily President Obama, with the Iranians will in this discussion be referred to as the “Deal” for simplicity’s sake. This Deal has been panned by conservatives and anti-terror specialists as being dangerous and potentially deadly accords. It has been predicted that Iran will easily become a major economic power the equivalent of Saudi Arabia with the infusion of one-hundred-fifty-billion dollars and its resurgence into the oil market even at todays lowered prices, a situation caused by Saudi Arabia pumping oil at near peak levels intending to damage the economies of the Iranians and hurting Russia as well in the interim. The pain caused the Iranians will be offset by the cash infusion. The one thing we can be thankful for the warning but feel accursed by the aimed for results was the announcement after the signing of the Deal by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that his intentions are to utilize the cash infusion to resupply and rearm his terror proxies to levels believed impossible until a few days ago with the announcement of the Deal crafter by the Iranian demands and the quickness with which Secretary of State Kerry (to be referred to as ‘SKerry’ through the remainder of the article) revealed to be at the orders of President Obama, folded his hand and capitulated to every command and refusal to accept any limitations or requirements upon Iran thus in the final weeks of negotiations surrendering virtually every gain pressed forth through great efforts by the rest of the P5+1 from Iran. There was a glimmer of hope against hope that the Deal might crumble at the last minute due to the honor and integrity shown earlier in the negotiations when the initial framework was decided before the initial six-month pushback of the deadline for producing an agreement when the French Foreign Minister vetoed the framework only to be pressed by President Obama and his minions with a small cosmetic change in the phrasing of a minor item was made as the reason for the French veto though most believed the problems were more systemic than that one minor, insignificant item which was altered.

 

Back to the question at hand; is the Choice Between the “Deal” or War? One item which has to be brought into the consideration is some of the terms as far as items to be provided to Iran by the United States or other members of the P5+1 or any other entities. We have heard that the United States will be providing additional cyber protection with a mentioned direction of protecting the entirety of the Iranian nuclear research, development and particularly their enrichment program from interference, especially from Israeli cyber capabilities above and beyond other cyber assaults. There has been mention that President Obama through his lackey SKerry promised the Iranians that they could expect United States to provide air security both from the ground in Iraq as well as from the naval taskforce including, if necessary, from the aircraft deployed from the carrier in the Arabian Gulf. This guarantee appears to include, as some reports have stated, shooting down Israeli fighters should the situation demand such, and the expressed targeting of Israeli forces was exactly as heard. How much further to the other side the Administration will stray from the normative distance it has shown former allies making them into potentially targets of United States military assets is far beyond anything expected by any number of Americans who voted for President Obama, particularly my Jewish friends.

 

What does this paint for the future for Israel? Israel can feel a little less alone in her neighborhood as Egypt and Saudi Arabia along with their allies along the gulf coast are all in the same sinking boat right now. Unfortunately this situation will not aid Israel immensely. Where Saudi Arabia and Egypt might be cooperating, Israel should not expect any overt or announced cooperation from her new friends or even any thanks should Israel take actions which prevent Iranian production of nuclear weapons. Should the United States have actually sent orders to their military to intercept any attack on Iran, that could make any attack on Iran extremely problematic. By now Israel will hopefully have figured out that informing the United States of their intents is not tactically the brightest move available. This causes more problems than many might realize as there are numerous Israelis both within the IDF and within the government who believe it is their specific responsibility to announce every move to the corresponding department within the American government. This would require that care be taken on who might be trusted with any information and orders which were given to implement actions against the Iranian nuclear sites. Any such attempt to neutralize the Iranian nuclear sites had best be discussed with trustworthy advisors alone and should be tested as one of a number of potential interventions when being discussed with people having knowledge of the Iranian government and their expected and especially unexpected reactions and in plane plans made to address any resultant actions by Iran and her many allies and proxies. Further, Israeli intelligence should be on alert to find out the plans by any other actors as Iran has promised a reign of terror upon Israel should any attack be taken on their nuclear programs or any other resources within Iran.

 

The brilliance displayed by President Obama and his advisors which has been displayed through such exercises and actual events as Benghazi which was determined to be a response to a YouTube Video with about five thousand views before it was referenced by the Administration. There was the success of President Obama’s brilliant collapsing of al-Qaeda and how “stable governments” were taking form and President Obama gave as the prime example Yemen which burst into civil war overthrowing the “stable government” and forced to flee the Capital and head to the next largest city where two or three days later they were forced to flee again and have barely been heard from since. But we have heard from Iran and their arming of the Houthis and we have heard from Saudi Arabia which is supporting any entity which stands against the Iranian proxies, the Houthis. It is almost as if the Iranians are seeking anywhere and everywhere to make President Obama look the fool, but he and Secretary SKerry are too busy strutting their stuff purporting the great Deal they made and how it will prevent any need for a war to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons. The Deal puts that the probability for setting the date for an Iranian nuclear weapon to be about a decade from now, give or take two, three or four years assuming that Iran gets caught in the web of intrigue and becomes entangled in all the minutia placed there to prevent an Iran desperate to please the West and the United States and Israel in particular but is absolutely useless against an Iran that intends to bull rush straight through any supposed restrictions in the Deal.

 

When asked what would happen if Iran simply took the one-hundred-fifty-billion dollars which are being released and used the improved centrifuge plans provided and open some undeclared enrichment laboratories in order to build nuclear weapons, warheads to be exact, with intent to make their warheads clandestinely and quickly; the administration replied with stunned disbelief stuttered slowly, but the Deal does not permit such actions and how dare you cast doubts about the Deal as it is a good deal fashioned for a good people to obey its restrictions and Iran had promised to abide by its restrictions. There appears to be a mental disconnect between President Obama and Secretary SKerry making them incapable of addressing any potential shortcomings of their deal and how it may prove completely impossible at restraining any government which practices subterfuge and dishonesty as stark principles reminiscent of the Germans after the Munich Agreement of 1938 which inevitably led to war within two years as Germany had since then annexed Austria, absorbed the rest of Czechoslovakia, and proceeded to make the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact agreement with Russia by which the two powers invaded hapless Poland from opposite ends and met in the middle thus starting World War II.

 

Iran will not need to make any additional agreements as they have sufficient agreements in place to provide them with control of a large crescent starting at the Indian Ocean and cutting a swath of land passing through the Middle East passing through Iran, southern Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and ending in the Mediterranean Sea. Currently Syria is in remission but the cash spigot is about to come wide open and as promised by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his friends will be rearmed and strengthened and will soon have all the necessary weapons and assistance to take the offensive. Add to this the promises from President Obama to provide a wall of protection both in the virtual domain and in the realm of the real where he promises have been made to prevent any and all assaults mounted, in particular, by Israel or any of her new-found allies. Of course by now the farthest reaching terms of the Deal have reached all those who have been waiting anxious to begin to understand what threats may be coming their way and if so, how long do they have to prepare. For Saudi Arabia, they know already that they have zero time as the fighting is on their southern and northern borders with the Yemeni Houthis fighting the Sunnis on their southern border and Iraqi Shia forces tangling with the Islamic State and Iranian backed and augmented Iraqi units facing off. Where most of the fighting has been between Shia and Sunni forces Iran has been known to finance Sunni groups as long as they did not bring any shame upon Iran, something amazingly enough accomplished by Hamas as Iran has cut their relations with Hamas, a blessing we would rather just accept and be thankful for small favors. Many of the groups and states supported by Iran is done simply to further the spread of the ideology and dogma of Shiite Islam and to bring as many misguided Islamic Sunni souls into the embracing arms of Shiite Islam and there is the we have the struggle of the ages. But in addition to this struggle there are the other tactical struggles. Iran desires to amass to themselves the rich oil fields of southern and central Iraq, the Saudi oil fields as well as the oil fields of the Gulf States including any offshore drilling. Additionally Iran believed that the time has arrived that the Shiite form of Islam becomes the dominant form supplanting Sunni through conversion by way of persuasion initially and by force if that becomes necessary. The Iranians also know the importance in geography and in particular of choke points. In that desire Iran definitely has desires to take control of both sides of the Straits of Hormuz, they seek ownership of Oman and the United Arab Emirates and for control of Bab el Mandeb Straits which is fueling much of their desire to have the Houthis control Yemen and be holding to Iran for their victories.

 

Meanwhile, the problem facing Israel as well as much of the Sunni Islamic world, though few would be capable of doing much about Iranian hegemony, is the prevention of permitting Iran to attain nuclear weapons and in particular what is referred to as weaponized delivery systems, a long way of saying miniaturized warheads. The reason for this is two-fold; the first being the obvious in that a rocket is limited in range by three factors, the first is the amount of fuel it can hold which is pretty much set by its initial design, second is the efficiency of the rocket motor, which consists of the combustion chamber, the valves, the atomizer, and some complex combinations in sizes and diameters which is called rocket science for a reason, and finally the weight of the warhead. This is where miniaturizing brings home the benefits as the weight of the warhead is by far the easiest part of a rocket or missile that the user can address. If we have a warhead that weights one-kilogram and a rocket which can hold one-kilogram then that is the limit you can arm said rocket with. But if you can miniaturize the warhead with a superior design which brings its weight down to three-hundred grams then you can place three warheads on that rocket and because that still allows for one-hundred additional grams that are not going to be used then the range of the rocket or missile just increased by almost ten percent, not that would be something as your miniaturization had tripled the capacity of the device’s damage capacity but also increased the range of the weapons package. This is where Iran will need to develop its technology as, just because you can produce a nuclear device does not necessarily mean one can deliver the weapon efficiently and here size and weight are the twin kings, especially if the intent is to place warheads atop missiles or within aircraft.

 

The best example of the difference is that the initial bombs the United States dropped on Japan to end World War II were huge in size by today’s standards. Their names were Little Boy (a uranium gun-type atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945) and Fat Man (a plutonium implosion-type bomb on the city of Nagasaki on August 9) both of which took a Silverplate Boeing B-29 Superfortress aircraft. The Enola Gay, named after its Pilot Colonel Paul W. Tibbets’ mother carried Little Boy to its target of Hiroshima while, like William Dawes who was the other rider with Paul Revere and who actually made the warnings as Revere was captured by the British but Dawes proved too difficult to rhyme so it became “The Midnight Ride of Paul Revere” and not William Dawes, while the B-29 named Bockscar piloted by Major Charles W. Sweeney whose plane was not named after either of his parents, carried Fat Man over Nagasaki. Each of these atomic bombs had yields under twenty-thousand-kilograms of TNT (Trinitrotoluene C6H2(NO2)3CH3) which is considered quite low compared with modern thermonuclear devices which carry yields measured in Mega-tons of TNT yet are so much smaller than the original devices that if a B-29 were to carry modern weapons they could carry numerous bombs each with multiple warheads though the plane would likely not be capable of flying high enough and fast enough to clear the area before detonation though with a lighter load it might have a prayer’s chance.

 

Silverplate B-29 Superfortress Enola Gay, named after its Pilot Colonel Paul W. Tibbets' mother, carried Little Boy to its target of Hiroshima

Silverplate B-29 Superfortress Enola Gay, named after its Pilot Colonel Paul W. Tibbets’ mother, carried Little Boy to its target of Hiroshima

 

Silverplate B-29 Superfortress Bockscar of the 509th Composite Group which dropped an atomic bomb on Nagasaki piloted by Major Charles W. Sweeney

Silverplate B-29 Superfortress Bockscar of the 509th Composite Group which dropped an atomic bomb on Nagasaki piloted by Major Charles W. Sweeney

 

Silverplate B-29 Superfortress Enola Gay with Pilot Col Paul Tibbets, named after its Pilot Colonel Paul W. Tibbets' mother carried Little Boy to its target of Hiroshima historic picture og man and his aircraft

Silverplate B-29 Superfortress Enola Gay with Pilot Col Paul Tibbets, named after its Pilot Colonel Paul W. Tibbets’ mother carried Little Boy to its target of Hiroshima historic picture og man and his aircraft

 

 

So, even should Iran detonate a trial nuclear bomb, depending on its yield, it could be determined what variety of device was detonated and what the intended use might be. A really low yield but leaving a high gamma radiation signature would signal they had developed an EMP bomb used to knock out electronic grids and sensitive electronics rendering entire weapons systems useless, especially those dependent on radar from ground based systems such as any aircraft batteries and other targeting systems as well as most command and control as they are dependent on computers and communications networks, both systems very vulnerable to an EMP attack. Such a device could spell a real disaster for most nations but mostly the United States or Europe as both societies are heavily dependent on communications for their economy, computers for their investment and banking systems, their electrical grids for refrigeration and for hospital equipment, and for supplying virtually everything as the majority of vehicles currently depend on computers to run and both Television and radio would be knocked out which in itself and without computers the United States would go completely bonkers within hours.

 

The real problem is that with the United States presumably defending the nuclear sites from military attacks and from cyber-attacks as well as providing advanced radar systems from aboard naval vessels matched to anti-missile interceptors of various types including jamming and interception, and have aircraft capable of taking out any aircraft identified as foreign and entering Iranian air-space with unclear intent or bombs hanging under the wings defiantly stating its mission, all of which means that for the foreseeable future the United States has joined the other side even against the people of the United States who knowingly continue to reside in the Great Satan and have yet to mend their ways and become good Dhimmis living the life in burka-land. The real question is how Iran can be derailed from attaining nuclear weapons, and not just any nuclear weapons, but miniaturized, weaponized, multiple-warhead, thermonuclear devices and the stealth cruise missiles capable of three-thousand-five-hundred mile routing at under fifty meters altitude and what would be the consequences to the nation which so took one for the team, and not necessarily an appreciative team? Because of the United States provided protection, should this continue to be the United States policy by the next President elected in November 2016 and taking office in mid-January 2017 no matter what their reasoning, such would mean that Iran might have such capabilities before they become easily targeted. This situation would present the parts of the world under threat, oddly enough including the United States, in so desperate a position that they might see tempting a shootout with the United States over Iran as giving them better hopes of survival than waiting for another President as by then protecting Iran would have become cemented policy that only the most assured and confident of Presidents would go against meaning there would be no end in sight. Boy, that sure is a SKerry Deal President Obama has there.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

 

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April 15, 2015

Russia Iran Mutual Assistance Agreement

Filed under: 24/7 News Reporting,Absolutism,Act of War,Administration,Air Strike,Al-Quds Force,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Appointment,Arab Appeasement,Arab Authority,Arms Transfer,Assembly of Experts,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollah Khomenei,Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,Ayatollahs,Benyamin Netanyahu,Blood Libel,Breakout Point,Cabinet,Cairo Speech,Chancellor Merkel,China,Chinese Pressure,Civilization,Commander in Cheif,Communism,Conflict Avoidnce,Coverup,Ditherer in Chief,Ease Sanctions,Economic Sanctions,Economy,Egypt,Euro,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Media,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Fadjr,Federica Mogherini,Forced Solution,Fordo,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,Framework,France,Gaza,Germany,Government,Hassan Rowhani,Hate,History,IAEA,IAF,Infiltration Tunnels,Inspections,International Atomic Energy Agency,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Military,Iranian Pressure,Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps,IRGC,Islam,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jihad,Kim Jong Un,Kurdish Militias,Leftist Pressures,Libya,Mainstream Media,Media,Media Bias,Media Censorship,Middle East,Middle East Media Research Institute,Military Aid,Military Option,Ministers,Misreporting,Missile Research,Missile Test Launch,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Moscow,Muslim World,Netanyahu,No Fly Zone,No-Fly Zone,Non Binding Resolution,North Korea,North Korean Threat,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Research,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons Test,Obama,P5+1,Parchin,Parliament,Pentagon,Persia,Peshmerga Militias,Plutonium Production,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,President Sisi,Quds Force,Reapply Sanctions,Remove Sanctions,Reserve Currency,Response to Terrorism,Russia,Sanctions,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Scientific Research,Shared Currency,Shiite,Smuggling Tunnels,Strong Sanctions,Sunni,Supreme Leader,Taqiyya,Tel Aviv,The Twelfth Imam,Threat of War,Threat of War,Twelvers,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,Uranium Enrichment,US Marines,Victims,War Threat,Warhead Development,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Media,World Opinion,World Pressures,World Without Zionism or America — qwertster @ 2:50 AM
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What do Russia and Iran have in common? If your answer was sanctions, congratulations. The two have been under sanctions from the western nations. So, you might think that two nations under sanctions would both be suffering cash shortages and thus would both be too financially strapped to assist each other in any way. But there are ways nations can assist each other that do not require dollars, Euros, Pounds Sterling or any other normative tenders. But then the Iranians, or maybe for this we might call them by their original name, Persians and the Russians are returning to a more familiar means from history, trade and bartering. The Russians have something the Iranians have desired and made agreements which were prevented by combined actions by the United States and Israel, their advanced S-300 antiaircraft radar and missile systems. But what could the Iranians have that the Russians could use? Oddly enough, despite Russia being an oil exporter they have made an arrangement where the Iranians initially will pay for these advanced systems by shipping oil to the Russians and change their style of payment to some form of cash, not necessarily petro-dollars but rather some alternate currency which may be the initial first step to establishing an alternative international currency to compete with the dollar which Iran and Russia have been pressing for largely seeking to enjoin China in this effort which they believe might make such a currency internationally acceptable. In the meantime the oil provided as payment to the Russians will simply become a part of their own petroleum reserves as oil is an extremely fungible commodity which can be sold without fearing the buyer will be running laboratory tests to trace its nation of origin.

 

The Russians are moving on delivering these advanced antiaircraft radar and missile systems which are capable of targeting multiple aircraft including cruise missile and possibly some forms of ballistic missiles (not IBCM but ballistic mid-range missiles which do not leave the atmosphere and reenter the atmosphere) as quickly as the systems can be assembled, tested and configured. The Russians are showing little signs of putting this deal on hold and waiting for the sanctions to be officially removed and are not concerned whether the sanctions are going to be immediately removed upon the signing of a nuclear agreement as the Iranian Framework Agreement Farsi translation states, or gradually over a period of time after Iran meets certain markers as President Obama’s copy of the Framework Agreement claims. This not concerning the Iranians is more than readily believable and with the weakness shown by President Obama with his message requested to be given Putin by former Russian President Medvedev about his greater ability to be more flexible after the 2014 elections, like now, there will be no respect for anything President Obama might think forcing Putin to delay this deal more than about ten seconds. The Russians are actually apparently anxious to provide the Iranians with their advanced S-300, or perhaps the improved S-400, complete mobile anti-aircraft systems, almost as anxious as the Iranians are to receive them and put them around their nuclear development sites, even those sites which they will have switched over to spinning a mixture of gasses including a base noble gas and a cross-section of other gasses so that the cascaded centrifuges will retain their calibration and be immediately returned to uranium enrichment as soon as restrictions are retired, or whenever the Iranians decide to shoot for a nuclear weapon and deny the IAEA inspections and ignoring all restrictions of any agreement reached in the nuclear negotiations.

 

While the threat to use the military option should Iran break the deal reached presumably between now and June 30th and has repeatedly been brought to the world’s, and especially the media’s, collective attention by President Obama, the one truism existing is that the military option will remain there on the table for as long as President Obama is in office. The problem is that should the Russian deal with the Iranians come to fruition, and we doubt any threats from the west, either the Europeans or President Obama, are likely between the Russian energy stranglehold over the Europeans and President Obama’s greater flexibility, exercised like a man without a spine, would be believed by President Putin who would likely make a threatening move and all would wilt before his shirtless form. As far as the Iranians are concerned, and has been proven by the fiasco which have passed as negotiations, they really do not care what the rest of the world thinks and they know they have the upper hand as the Europeans have the military preparedness of a preschool compared to the Iranian missiles which can easily reach virtually all of Europe and the Americans have President Obama whose effeminateness precludes his taking any strong military attack is nil. Once the Russians have provided the Iranians with sufficient S-300 systems they will have become relatively immune from most military airstrike be they from jet fighter-bombers or cruise missiles. The S-300 systems radar station can track at least a dozen separate aircraft (up to seventy-two are trackable in its most advanced systems) and target six missiles in flight (up to thirty-six are targetable in its most advanced systems). A number of missiles are matched with a central radar system and both the missiles and radar system are mounted on trucks making the entire systems mobile, thus making them less easily targeted and easily relocated to guard targets considered most vulnerable at any given time. The S-300 systems, assuming the deal will provide Iran with as many systems as they desire, will make any air strikes by the Israelis close to impossible and at the least excessively costly in the cost of aircraft, and more importantly, pilots either lost or captured. Such a system would require stealth aircraft to avoid the high resolution wide-array radars. This would make Israeli Air Force excessively vulnerable and their initial targets would necessarily need to be the radar systems followed by the antiaircraft missiles themselves. Daring such attacks while not having the stealth aircraft for the mission would still present challenges which would tax any pilots beyond imagination. As far as a strike force from the United States, it would likely take their every F-22 Raptor escorting every B-2 Stealth Bomber with special radar seeking missiles equipped on the Raptors and for many of the buried and reinforced nuclear sites, especially the Fordow site, would require bunker-buster munitions with some requiring the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) which weighs 30,000 pounds (14,000 kg), with a length of 20.5 feet (6.2 m) and a circumference of 31.5 inches (0.80 m) and originally required a modification of the B-2 Stealth Bomber in order to carry this unfathomably strange and huge munition. Such an attack will not be even slightly possible before the next Presidential Inauguration before it should even be considered remotely possible, and then it will be dependent on who is the new President the people of the United States elect. The truth be told, this deal will be the final nail removed from the coffin to allow the nuclear mummy to rise from the crypt and begin the nightmarish specter of a nuclear armed theocratic realm with apocalyptic visions and aspirations to rise and spread the fears of nuclear annihilation across the globe and also release the spreading specters of fears spread to the rest of the Islamic nations of the Middle East and Northern Africa starting any number of nations, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait and beyond take this as their starting whistle to developing their own nuclear weapons to balance against any Iranian threats. A world with such a spread of nuclear arms will have become one threat removed from a miscalculation spawning a reaction which very easily could tilt the balance into crazy and soon might follow the raining of missiles carrying the end of life as we know it as the clouds rise in a column then spreading their bulbous sides outward making a large caldron of swirling hot gasses spreading outward poisoning a large swath of Earth and changing our outlook into the future, if there is to be a future, if there is going to be a future at all.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 26, 2014

World News as Heard on Israel Radio

Before we get to the news, a little note about many Israeli radio stations; they are also connected to the government “Code Red” warning system where when a rocket or missile launch has been detected, the government warning is given over the music, news, commercials or whatever is being broadcast by the station without blanking out the station broadcast. Where you might think that such would make the warnings difficult to understand, trust when I tell you that you definitely will hear if your town, village, city, kibbutz or junction is called out for a possible strike. If you live in Sderot or the Kibbutzim and farms close to Gaza you have fifteen seconds to be in a shelter before the explosions might start. What is absolutely amazing is that even with that little amount of a warning the Iron Dome system is still capable of intercepting the projectiles with a better than 80% interception success rate. Tel Aviv has almost a full minute from the Code Red alarm to make it to a shelter. Imagine being on the twenty-third or, in the tallest skyscraper in Tel Aviv, fifty-third floor and hearing the Code Red and then what. So you have a shelter on your floor, what if it is one of the largest of Hamas’s rockets and it hits your building around the third floor taking out about two-thirds of that floor and the one above and below it. Your safe room prevents rockets from sending shrapnel and stop a direct hit but only for the smaller warheads, not the FADJR-5 (a 333mm rocket with a 90kg (200lbs) warhead and range of 75km (46 mile)) or worse the M302 (a 302mm rocket with a 150kg (330lbs) and a range of 150km (93.5 mile)) which are beyond the capabilities of most safe rooms and one is only safe from these in an actual shelter. Worse yet, should one of the M302 escape interception and strike in Tel Aviv, Ashdod, Haifa, Jerusalem, Be’er Sheva, Ashkelon, Hadera, Netanya or many areas of central Israel where many tall building have been constructed and have to rely on safe rooms hopefully on every floor, you are not protected from the building collapsing thus Israel is potentially one unintercepted rocket from potentially over a thousand deaths. With that in mind, let us get to the news of the world as heard on Israeli radio during this conflict.

The investigation and identification of those who died in the shooting down of Malaysian Flight 17 in the Eastern Ukraine continues today. The bodies are being loaded onto trains to be transported and put on flights returning them to their homelands. It is expected that the pro-Russian rebels will release the flight’s black boxes to (Code Red Sderot, Code Red Ashdod, Code Red Ashkelon) Malaysian investigators. While the black boxes are expected to reveal detailed data on the moments before Flight 17 was struck by the anti-aircraft missile, it is (Code Red Ashdod, Code Red Ashkelon, Code Red Tel Aviv) doubtful that much information about the exact events will be revealed as they would have basically not recorded anything after the strike.

Pro-Palestinian demonstrators rioted once again today in Paris attacking police with bottles and stones. Some of the demonstrators broke away from the area and marched on a Paris synagogue where they shouted anti-Semitic chants taunting congregants inside the synagogue to come out and fight. They also threw objects at the synagogue including one firebomb. The building did not catch fire and minimal damage was incurred as the demonstrators were eventually removed by the Paris police.

President Obama cancelled his scheduled appearance on Jimmy Kimmel’s program stating that (Code Red Tel Aviv, Code Red Hadera, Code Red Netanya, Code Red Herzliya) it would be improper for him to appear on a comedy show with world events as they are. The President spoke with the press on his flight between fund raisers he is attending while in California.

United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and United States Secretary of State Kerry met between trips to Cairo, Qatar, Tel Aviv and other stops during their efforts to put together a ceasefire which would be acceptable to both Hamas and the Israelis. Both men expressed regrets and concerns over the mounting civilian casualties within the Gaza Strip and called on Israel to show the necessary restraint to end the needless bloodshed. Secretary of State Kerry has been talking with Egyptian leaders trying to get them to agree to back and present conditions for a ceasefire which have been crafted by Turkey and Qatar. There has been a hope that a possible humanitarian ceasefire could be reached for over the weekend despite the fact that both Hamas and Israel have thus far refused to sign on to any proposal thus far.

Both the United States Federal Aviation Agency and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency set travel restrictions to and from Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion International Airport citing the rocket strike which demolished a home just over a (Code Red Sderot, Code Red Sa’ad, Code Red Qiiryat Gat)  mile from the busy airport. Both agencies said they would be taking precautions on a day by day basis with the determination based on the perceived potential of threats to flights at the Israeli international hub. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed his dismay and concern over the ramifications and potential harm to the Israeli economy, especially the tourism sectors. There has been some hinting that the move was more political than safety oriented as there have been no such bans from flights in and out of other international airports which pose a much greater threat than at Ben Gurion. The commentary has revolved around the fact that at Pakistani international airports there have been attacks on aircraft using anti-aircraft missiles and the threat to flights in and out of Syria’s Damascus International Airport or Baghdad International Airport where anti-aircraft missiles have been employed by terrorist and rebel forces while the rocket which landed in the general area of Ben Gurion International Airport was not an anti-aircraft missile and there has been no anti-aircraft missile threats within Israel at all.

The weather report for Israel tomorrow (Code Red Sderot, Code Red Eilat, Code Red Be’er Sheva, Code Red Netivot, Code Red Rahat) it will continue to be hot in the south and pleasant along the coast with cooler temperatures in the north. Jerusalem will have a slight chance…

This should give one a taste of what Israelis have had to live with for the past seven plus weeks, almost three weeks before Israel launched their initial retaliatory airstrike. The Israelis living in Sderot and surrounding region have lived with the Code Red sirens for the past eighteen months. Many children in Sderot refuse to leave the shelters and others simply will not leave their rooms often even remaining in their beds. The numbers of cases of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) amongst children in these communities is so above normal, which is quite understandable, that the rates have startled the professionals and the severity of many of the cases has entered into new grounds. These cases of trauma will now be spreading further throughout Israel as the rockets are striking several times each day over seventy percent of Israel. Only the extreme northern towns such as Ma’alot, Nahariya, Safed, and surrounding towns and kibbutzim as well as the Golan Heights, which has its own problems with mortars and artillery from the Syrian civil war sometimes straying and other times more intentionally striking within Israeli territory. If not for the miraculous performance and ingenious engineering along with the professionalism of the soldiers manning the Iron Dome anti-rocket and artillery interceptor systems the death toll in both Israel and Gaza would have been astronomically higher. Without the Iron Dome Israel would not have had the luxury of giving the United Nations, European Union and United States the three weeks to attempt to intervene and force Hamas to cease raining rockets down on Israelis. Prime Minister Netanyahu made numerous pleas to the leaders of the United States, European Union and United Nations as did numerous other Israeli officials including numerous ambassadors throughout Europe and the world and both the Israeli United Nations Ambassador Ron Prosor and Representative of Israel to the United Nations in Geneva Ambassador Eviatar Manor trying to get anybody to apply pressure and find some way of forcing Hamas to cease the rocket attacks. Nobody succeeded and this led to the Israeli response. As mentioned, without Iron Dome the Israeli losses would have been horrific and comparable to the losses in Gaza. This would have forced Israel to react sooner and with far greater force and less delicacy of warning the Palestinians when and where the next strikes would be targeting. The warnings would still have been made but with less lead time making the ability to take many possessions near to impossible. As things stand with Iron Dome, there have been times that Israeli warnings were given the day before a strike and most often giving the Palestinians at least half an hour and more when possible. The times when short notice was given were in response to an actual impending rocket launch where the strike became time sensitive and the short time warning was thus necessitated. Still, the only side in the Hamas Israel conflict giving notice of where and when there are strikes is Israel and strangely enough, Israel is often giving the Palestinian in Gaza more lead time with the warnings than Israelis receive of the Hamas rocket launches. This is because Israel can only warn of Hamas rockets once they have been launched and are in the air on their way while Israel can provide the citizens of Gaza longer lead times in the warnings as Israel sends the warnings before the planes are even fueled up and armed. Many Israelis probably wish they could have the same luxury of often hours warning instead of anywhere from fifteen seconds in Sderot to as much as two minutes at the farthest reaches in the north of the Hamas rocket strikes.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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