Beyond the Cusp

January 20, 2016

Prepare for the True Face of Iran

 

Iran, or should we call them the English translation for the Ancient Farsi word we represent by Iran we discussed yesterday, Aryan, will soon be ready to flex their muscles and do so to great surprise of the Western World who have misjudged Iran every step of their development since President Jimmy Carter personally made sure the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini attained the leadership and turned Iran, Aryan, into an Islamic Theocratic dictatorship where a select group of sagely appearing Imams appeared to guide an elected Parliament and the elected President all chosen from a select group of candidates who had been vetted by the Imams who make up the Guardian Council who also are to advise the Grand Ayatollah who holds ultimate power. Other than the Guardian Council to a lesser extent and the Grand Ayatollah to a much greater extent, the remainders of the governance, the President, the Parliament are all simply trappings to give a semblance of allowing the people any degree of power with their mostly meaningless votes. In all honesty we can probably safely state that the results of the elections could likely be published by the government media three weeks before they will presumably be cast. Iran has been patiently biding their time and their awakening is close at hand and the world will never be the same.

 

The Iranians worked quietly, clandestinely, and with great care on developing nuclear warheads for their missiles working for that day when they become and announce their entry as a nuclear power. They know that with a fair number of nuclear weapons they can do far more and make demands upon the world. Nuclear weapons make one a superpower and with the right delivery weapons they make a nation far more effective and respected. The Soviet Union was considered the equal of the United States even though they were in economic ruination which eventually caused their inevitable collapse. Still, despite that collapse Russia is respected if for no other reason for their nuclear weapons and their ability to virtually destroy human civilizations. China became a nation to reckon with when they proved to have developed thermonuclear weapons and the ICBMs with which to deliver them to any point on the globe. Iran knows that Israel was considered the strongest nation in the Middle East due to their victories in their wars in 1967 and 1973 defeating Egypt and Syria in both conflicts and also Jordan in 1967. Their survival in 1948-9 was considered a miracle in the West and a calamity in the Arab World. Even with India and Pakistan their conflict over who owns what of the corpse of Kashmir changed and became more of a low level simmering conflict with occasional outbursts but any opening of the conflict seemed far more likely to immediately turn to mediations than escalation and thus there, at least, nuclear weapons had a calming effect as the alternative was unthinkable.

 

What about Iran? Will it have a calming influence and also cause their sponsoring of terrorism to also decline? These are very serious questions which should have been included in the nuclear deal and were not even an afterthought. Iranian influence through Hezballah by which the governance of the nation was changed and even the demographics took a drastic turn caused the Christians to flee from the terror tyranny. Hezballah was another instance where a nation, upon reaching a critical percentage of its population made up of Muslims, turned violent with outside arming and instigation. This resulted in the non-Muslim population who could leave and restart their life in Europe, Australia, Israel, New Zealand or the United States emigrating with no intention of ever returning. They went giving up their ancestral home in many instances and choosing to turn their backs on that history and with heavy hearts setting their sights to take root elsewhere away from the growing violence. Such decisions are rarely reached easily and require dire situations which tear at the heart and require a mindset which once the situation reaches that point you make the decision and, like a steel trap, close the past and step into a new future hoping that you might find some others who made a similar decision before you. Maybe you have relatives or were able to locate and land employment, something which always sets a mind into a better state when making such a traumatic decision. Still, the children, they seldom understand the reasons and have the hardest time at first but fortunately children are resilient; sometimes they have no other choice. This was the effect in one small nation due to Iran and their terror proxy Hezballah but Iran needed a base from which to operate and Syria was always known to be a pyramid turned on its tip and always threatening to topple in the slightest of political winds. After the mantle passed to Bashir al-Assad it became obvious early on he was not his father, not by a longshot which made Lebanon all the more essential for Iran. But soon all that will be different, won’t it.

 

Iran is heavily involved in Lebanon through Hezballah who they have armed with hundreds of thousands of rockets of various sizes, warheads, ranges and multiple usage types from ground to ground, MLRV*, anti-ship, anti-tank, anti-aircraft, multiple warhead and rumored to also have cluster munitions which are illegal under the international rules of war, something which seems not to apply to Iran, Hezballah and others when used against Israel. Hezballah is only a single front which Iran has been building to destroy Israel or to use against Israel as a distraction from other actions they may be preparing for elsewhere. They are also arming Hamas and Islamic Jihad as best they can with Israel doing what they are able to prevent such shipments. Israel had captured a few of the ships carrying arms to unload into the Sinai Peninsula for smuggling through the tunnels from the Sinai Peninsula into Gaza for Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Israel is rumored to have also bombed trucks in the Sudan which were taking arms shipments from Iran to smuggle into the Sinai Peninsula by ferrying them across the Red Sea presumably under cover of night. Iran has also been rumored to have contacted Mahmoud Abbas in an attempt to also give him arms if he would be willing to take directives as to when and how to attack Israel from Tehran. Abbas has made a number of trips to Iran as have other Palestinian authority (PA) officials. Read what one may but they have also made trips to Saudi Arabia and Egypt when Morsi was President. The trips were rumored to have been about collecting on promises for funding though such is only rumor and unconfirmed.

 

Other than Israel, Lebanon and the entire imbroglio which is Syria, the Iranians are also involved in a proxy-war with Saudi Arabia in Yemen where recriminations of improper tactics and the illegal targeting of civilians and using the same civilians as human shields. The civil war in Yemen would have faltered and petered out except for the addition of Iranian heavy weapons and other supplies as well as IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp) trainers and special operations specialists to aid the Houthis in their efforts to take control of the whole of Yemen. The Saudi Arabian efforts have largely been providing artillery and air support to the remaining government forces which have fled the capital city and are fighting to retain the southern port city of Aden. Additionally, for all intents and purposes the Iranians are the Iraqi government and control the entirety of the Shiite areas under government control. The Iranians by being the military command in Iraq they also are the ones placing requests for and more often than not receiving air support from the United States which had all but placed the United States Air Force planes and pilots under Iranian directives. This would not be so bad if the other sorties the United States had run against the Islamic State have largely returned with armaments still locked to their hard-points with none having been deployed as targets reported by Intelligence either were moved before the aircraft arrived as the intelligence was already dated. The Islamic State had figured the delay from satellite passing to any United States attack plan to reach the actual units which scramble their aircraft and they have the satellites timed so they move their resources as soon as the satellites have passed and before the orders reach the attack units. Thus far the United States is losing the cat and mouse game with the Islamic State and there are two main reasons. First the orders have to travel from the satellite intelligence reaching the surface in Iraq which is then forwarded to Washington for interpretation and orders to be cut after receiving White House approval. Then the orders are relayed back to Iraq where they are then passed through command and assigned to an actual Air Force unit which scrambles the pilots after the approved and required armaments are placed on the aircraft. All said and done, from satellite to aircraft is an hour or over leaving the Islamic State all the time it needs to almost casually move their assets to new locations and even return them to the originally determined location for the next satellite.

 

These efforts are restricted to the Arabian Peninsula and around the Middle East. If only these were the limit of the Iranian efforts it would be troubling enough, but alas there is so much more. Hezballah has been training terrorists in a complex along with IRGC units both providing specialist training to the terror units which rotate through the training area. The area has two separate airports, barracks and plenty of Jungle in which to train as well as a mock urban setting. The area is known as the Tri-Border Area which sits on the border area of Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina. The terrorist training area is also used by the drug cartels to further train their guard units, personal protection guards and any other people who need specialized training which the IRGC or Hezballah trainers are capable of providing. The advent of this training became evident very quickly as the Drug Cartels sent their most trusted personnel for training as soon after their return to Mexico there was a number of beheadings occurring with some performed and the heads later rolled into locations for the most impact to further enforce the threat the Cartels were to the public in Mexico as well as government law enforcement, courts and elected officials. Most of these beheadings took place largely within a hundred or so miles from the border with the United States as the American illicit drug markets are the main consumers of their wares. The training provided along with armaments including mines and anti-personnel devices could be used to make the main house safer from any encroachment by other cartels or law enforcement personnel. In exchange it is thought that Hezballah has gained free use and assistance by human smugglers to gain entrance into the United States and potentially even housing purchased and readied to provide the cover home for a terror group of individuals who may have an immediate assignment or they may be a sleeper cell of a mother, father and teen aged appearing sons who are likely bored in their high school classes which they must attend to retain the appearance of being a family with teenage sons. The Tri-Border Area has been used for decades by now and is a perfect location as it is very remote and each of the government’s claims that it is the other two countries that are responsible for security and law enforcement. With each government pointing their fingers at the other two’s responsibility to enforce the law, it is needless to point out that while each is pointing at the other two they are not bothering to provide much of any in the way of law enforcement over these areas thus leaving well enough alone as all three nations have no appetite for incurring the wrath of Iran and Hezballah. Make no mistake, should any of these nations take any steps to enforce the law against the terrorist and IRGC or any other Iranian forces training or waiting for orders to infiltrate the United States to carry out an immediate attack or join others who are simply lying in wait for orders some time in the future, the officials and military commanders had best watch their front, back, right, left, up and down as they will have painted a target on themselves.

 

The simple thing is that Iran with their world-wide reach through Hezballah and Hamas operatives as well as their own IRGC which was formed to provide a dedicated unit with the same size, financing and equipment as the regular Iranian Army to extend their reach beyond their borders would become a primary resource in such instances. The proof that Iran’s arm can reach around the world was where Hezballah, with IRGC assistance and possibly participation, accomplished the assaults on the AMIA bombing, an attack on the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (Argentine Israelite Mutual Association) on July 18, 1994, killing 85 people and injuring hundreds as well as the March 17, 1992, attack on the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires as a pickup truck driven by a suicide bomber and loaded with explosives smashed into the front of the Israeli Embassy where the blast killed 29 and wounded 242 others. The AIMA attack was being investigated by Alberto Nisman who left the investigation unfinished upon his suspicious death.

 

 

Tri_Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

Tri_Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994 bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

 

 

The day after Prosecutor Nisman was found dead in his apartment the morning he was scheduled to report to the Argentine legislature from what was initially reported to have been a suicide, we here at BTC reported our suspicions with our January 21, 2015, article titled Prosecutor’s Fate Mirrors Western Culture. The previous day, we regret to say, we missed the mark when we claimed that his death would be classified as a suicide and never investigated in our January 20, 2015, article The Death of Alberto Nisman. Though a prosecutorial team was assigned to investigate his untimely death and the circumstances surrounding this horrid murder, there was never anyone prosecuted and the paths investigated led either beyond the borders which was simply stated as beyond their prosecutorial privileges, something which would only have piqued Alberto Nisman further and his indomitable will to find the real truth no matter the obstacles or inconvenience to powerful people. It is really pathetic that a man who gave his all because of his zeal to follow the path of truth no matter where it led would have his murder swept under the carpet to satisfy crooked politicians, a terrorist group operating partially in Argentina in the tri-border region to be given a pass and to allow Iran’s implicated hand also to go unslapped. That is the saddest tribute a man can receive as to have his death be left unresolved as the result of an abortive investigation which was never given the honesty which he had dedicated and given his life. An upstanding and outstanding man deserved more.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

 

*MLRV means Multiple Launch Rocket Vehicle which come in various numbers of tubes, size of tube and rocket, all ranges depending on size and most important they are highly mobile (see pictures below)

 

 

Hezballah MLRV Units and Ranges

Hezballah MLRV Units and Ranges

 

 

Russian Produced S-300 Anti-Aircraft Missiles with Radar System and Control Vehicle

Russian Produced S-300 Anti-Aircraft Missiles
with Radar System and Control Vehicle

 

 

May 31, 2015

Please Name With Whom Israel is to Negotiate?

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Israel is consistently demanded upon to negotiate an end to the occupation and allow for an Arab Palestinian nation to be defined with the borders to be established along the 1949 Armistice lines with mutually agreed upon exchanges of lands. The question is with whom should Israel negotiate? Mahmoud Abbas refuses to sit with any Israeli delegations approved by the governing coalition though he gladly meets with members of the opposition who hold little power or with anti-Israel and anti-Zionist Jewish NGOs mostly from the United States, Europe and some from within Israel who are mostly if not completely subsidized by European NGOs or even the European Union or individual European national governments. These sit downs often are held in Ramallah and with a large map of what Mahmoud Abbas demands are the actual borders of Palestine which depicts all of Israel including the beaches of Tel Aviv and Nahariya with not even the slimmest segment of Israel left standing. One might inquire as to how Mahmoud Abbas plans on determining the government for anything which results in becoming the Arab state. Will he finally hold elections which would appear to be a normal result of the forming of a new nation? But Abbas has refused to hold elections totally skipping the scheduled 2009 election cycle out of fears that he would be voted from office. He is now in the tenth year of a four year term, which many would probably claim is very telling as to his actual legitimate power. Abbas has declared himself, for all intents and purposes, President for life, and that might not be too much longer should he actually agree to borders and the founding of the state he claims to desire above life itself, which very well might be the price he could pay. Israel would not have anything to do with his sudden demise as there are those from within Hamas, Islamic Jihad, ISIS and even his own Fatah Party, PLO and Palestinian Authority who would permanently remove him from office. It is interesting that Mahmoud Abbas holds those final three leading posts plus now signs documents as President of Palestine. The world has never known a man with so many titles who wields so little power and controls perhaps the few blocks of his fortified office complex. The one truism which should be made known, especially to the Europeans and United States President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John F. Kerry, is that Mahmoud Abbas is a man whose power ranges from the tip of his right hand to the tip of his left hand whenever he stands with his arms extended, and that is the largest area he can claim to control. Abbas is in no position to sign anything which would have any meaning ten minutes after it was signed, if it stood that long.

 

What makes matters even worse is that the leadership of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the other two main power brokers for the time being, have all abdicated their positions to Mahmoud Abbas officially despite retaining every ounce of control they held before the unification of the Arab Palestinian leadership. They claim they are still waiting for the promised elections, the elections which Abbas will never hold unless he has guarantees that he will retain his position whether deserved or not. Do not be too terribly surprised if President Obama with the backing of the European Union and European governments give Abbas a promise that he will be the only person permitted to run for President of any country if he would only reach an agreement and that write in votes will not be considered valid and still he would fear losing. Abbas, with good reason, has become a quivering mass of righteous paranoia which is fully justified after the executions carried out by Hamas at the end of Operation Protective Edge were largely actions utilized on without actual charges or trial simply going from arrest to execution with great efficiency ridding Gaza of numerous opponents and especially members of Fatah or other entities which might have loyalty to Abbas. Mahmoud Abbas got another dose of reality when a diplomatic team was dispatched to Gaza with the intended assignment to gather the name of the Hamas employees who had yet to be included on the paymaster’s roles and thus had not been receiving their paychecks and were less than thrilled over this situation but the team felt so under threat that they cut short their five day assignment after less than twenty-four hours and they never took a step out of their highly guarded hotel suite except to beat a hasty retreat to Ramallah without getting a single name of those Hamas employees. This might seem senseless that Hamas and Islamic Jihad would prevent the Arab Palestinian Authority to garner the names of their own people so they could be included on the payrolls and receive their wages but the reality is Hamas and Islamic Jihad are pushing for the Arab Palestinian Authority to collapse so they can pick up the pieces and be able to force the Europeans to deal through them and thus remove them from any terrorist roles and grant them political power and acceptance as the new chiefs for Israel to reach compromises and eventually reach a peace agreement. This would not be a huge step for most of Europe’s governments and political bodies and NGOs have, unofficially if not outright, removed Hamas from their terror roles and some even Islamic Jihad while the United Nations is set to recognize and legitimize the Palestinian Rights Center (PRC) which is a front group through which Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood operate and granting them full NGO status and all the legitimization which goes along with such. An extensive report on the PRC the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center released concludes that the group is closely affiliated with Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood as well that several of its members are terrorists who have fled to Great Britain. Such recognition would confer “full access to UN facilities and participation in debates in New York, Geneva, and Vienna, and, perhaps most significantly, global legitimacy,” as well as all other benefits which are granted with being awarded “official UN badges.”

 

Before one starts to believe that things could not become even more bleak, there are a number of other developments which are peeking just over the horizon. Perhaps the more sinister and having the most dire long range ramifications is the threat to Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Imagine a threat to Hamas and Islamic Jihad making the identical claim of being weak willed and not faithful or sufficiently devout in their manner and representation of Allah and having diverted from the true path. This challenge has been made by the only groups who might be believable when accusing Hamas and Islamic Jihad of temerity in purpose and inadequate devotion to the cause of Sharia and furthering Islam, ISIS. We have all likely seen reports which claim that ISIS has made inroads in the Sinai Peninsula and were taking control of much of the area closest to the Israeli border and ignored the fact that such positioning also brought ISIS close to the Egyptian border with Gaza and the heart of Hamas and Islamic Jihad power bases. This places ISIS in the perfect position to infiltrate Gaza in small numbers which would fairly soon become sufficient numbers to cause Hamas and Islamic Jihad great amounts of difficulty if not topple them both absorbing those who showed sufficient zeal for the ISIS cause while dispatching the leadership and others found wanting in spirit or purity mostly be depositing their bodies and heads separately. This might place Israel directly in the ISIS crosshairs or perhaps this would simply be the first stage to taking over the entirety of the Arab Palestinian cause and also making inroads to supplant the Arab Palestinian Authority including Mahmoud Abbas and also finding all of Fatah and PLO members to be wanting in their devotion and dedication to Sharia and Allah as these groups are nationalist secular or mildly Islamic and nowhere near the levels of self-proclaimed devotion and purity of spirit shown by ISIS, by their own proclamations, of course.

 

Such a turn of events would place Israel in a heavily compromised position, or that is what one would believe. What needs to remain in our consideration of the likelihood that ISIS would take control in Ramallah and replace Fatah, the PLO and the Arab Palestinian Authority are forgetting that the IDF and Shin-Bet operate an advanced and capable intelligence gathering network which was evident when preventing a Hamas coup through a general uprising such that in the confusion they could readily replace Mahmoud Abbas by whatever means were required and replacing the entirety of Fatah and the PLO from the upper echelons of the Arab Palestinian Authority. One could rightfully assume that any inroads made by ISIS would also cross the paths of the Israeli intelligence gathering infrastructure and their moves would be carefully monitored until the most critical moment and just before they struck their targets they would find themselves being welcomed to the Israel direct information gathering committee which operates from places unmentioned where discreet methods are employed to extract and glean any pertinent and necessary information which might have ramifications for Israel. ISIS taking the place of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza would not be in the better interests of Israel but there would appear to be little which could be done unless the Egyptians cared to assist in preventing such an event. The problem with this is that Egypt has just as much distaste for Hamas as it does ISIS and thus they may not care which evil takes its place in Gaza. All would come down to what the value of the people in Gaza had as far as Egypt is concerned. Where one might not see the connection immediately, allow us to give a hint on the one overriding reason which may give Egypt reason to act; there are numerous families who have Egyptian backgrounds and originated in Egypt and have large and numerous extended families who remain in Egypt and we all know how important clan ties can be, especially when members of one’s tribal group or even more severe, one’s relative from their clan faces an existential threat such as ISIS, the pressure placed on the government because of such ties could be overwhelming and Egyptian President Sisi may see the situation as an unavoidable necessity to intervene. The next question is whether President Sisi might request, through back channels and discreetly of course, for any assistance and intelligence Israel might desire to provide, especially to further the two nations’ unofficial relations and to have a card to play in the future. The truth is that it would be a dangerous development to have ISIS take a foothold anywhere in the region and their presence in the Sinai Peninsula must be unnerving for President Sisi and a concern for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Sometimes necessity makes for the strangest bedfellows and this is even more the case in the Middle East. Who would believe that Turkey and Saudi Arabia would be working together in Syria while at the same time as Saudi Arabia is working with Egypt in Yemen and Egypt with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States would be working with a silent partner in Israel against Iran who is working with Iraq, southern Iraq, Syria, less and less of Syria daily, and Hezballah in Lebanon as well as securing a naval port for the Russians with an assist likely to be provided by Hezballah. Iran will also need to protect as much of the Alawite areas as necessary which will require transferring some of the IRGC assisting against ISIS in Iraq and station them to fight ISIS in the areas Iran deems of military value, such as the roads from Damascus into the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon where Hezballah keeps many of its rockets stored.

 

Hezballah brings us to the final subject. This coming week, and even if this is a secret presently it will be fully evidenced as the week unfolds, Israel is running a full participation, country-wide defense in case of war scenario. This will include Israelis entering their shelters as if under rocket attack and every other contingency. The common prospect behind this according to some postulations is to ready the public for a potential conflict with Hamas and Islamic Jihad this summer. Close but no cigar. The real threat will be Hezballah who will need to make large points with the Lebanese after placing them in peril of attack by ISIS. The reasoning goes beyond just satiating the Lebanese hunger for another war with Israel as the last one proved to be so much fun, but Hezballah also will need to make headlines across the Western World which will supercede any news off of the front pages as Iran takes whatever steps are required in Syria to get Assad out and to solidify those areas which Iran considers vital for their desire which include an operative airport in Damascus through which to supply Hezballah, a safe port for the Russians to utilize in the Mediterranean Sea which is Latakia, Syria. And finally they also would desire to retain some of the natural resources such as mining operations and also have a staging area with direct access to the Golan Heights for wither Hezballah to utilize for an assault on Israel or for the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps or Pasdaran Persian: سپاه پاسداران انقلاب اسلامی) to have a launch facility to strike Israel or even to assault the Golan Heights. This all means that Iran will require another Hezballah war with Israel to divert attentions from their actions, which will be ruthless and potentially cataclysmic as well as to divert attention from the Iranian dash to produce a number of nuclear warheads and the final preparations for their launch at select targets. Thus Iran will require approximately six to ten weeks of conflict. With the known supplies of rockets and a fair number of larger missiles provided by Iran, Hezballah would be capable of launching over a thousand rockets daily for the entire six weeks and approximately eight-hundred rockets launched daily for ten weeks. Should any higher quantity be required they would need to utilize any Syrian rockets remaining under Iranian control or for Iran to provide a fair number of additional rockets which is why Iran requires the Damascus airport as they are unable to resupply Hezballah through Beirut probably because the Bekaa Valley lies along the Syrian border and the Alawite areas, how convenient. This leaves one with a serious question, what will be the Israeli reaction to a war with Hezballah. As Hamas has also threatened a confrontation this summer with Israel, it is entirely plausible that Israel will desire to keep any confrontation from escalating and to decisively end the conflict leaving little doubt as to who won. Thus any confrontation between Israel and Hezballah will result in Israel striking hard and fast swallowing up the lands south of the Litany River and then sweeping up the eastern banks of the Litani River through the heart of the Bekaa Valley taking out the training grounds, provisions, reserves and bases Hezballah has throughout that region. Any violence from Hamas should also be responded to with great prejudice and force of arms with nothing held back. With the growing challenges and rising threats throughout the areas of the Middle East, Northern Africa and the Horn of Africa, it is starting to appear that the whole area has lost their minds, possibly the whole world even. Then there is the continuing threat with Russia menacingly eying the old regions of her power before the fall of the Soviet Union and China literally building new islands and placing oil rigs and military airbases and other facilities in the South China Sea in order to widen her area of control and claim islands which are also claimed by her neighbors but China is the eight-hundred pound gorilla who can basically do whatever she desires unless the United States takes a stand against her, and that is seeming less and less a possibility as the islands grow. Furthermore, most of Europe is also looking at civil unrest in the near future as the growing immigrant population feels stronger and denied an equal opportunity to get a job and live an equal life. Add that they also desire to start a religious war forcing their religion on those they views as a people who have forsaken religion. Then there is violence threatening to break out full force both on the United States college campuses during the anti-Israel, anti-Zionist, anti-Semitic and anti-America demonstrations and potentially within many cities possibly escalating and spilling throughout the city, especially if the police are restrained and ill–equipped as was the case in Baltimore and has had continuing ramifications, especially in western Baltimore where the police have basically been chased from the streets. Similar situations are possible throughout the country, especially in the twelve largest cities. One would be hard pressed to find an area on the globe where there are no threats.

 

Even Kathmandu is still recovering from the series of earthquakes which struck there not that long ago. Will Shangri-La be next? Just because it is mythical might not except even Shangri-La from the ravages of societies gone mad. Maybe only the quiet places in our minds where we can concentrate on the peace and love in our hearts can the world be healed as we heal one soul at a time. But with the Churches, Synagogues, Temples and other religious houses all nearly empty even on the holiest of days, what hope will the world have against true and fanatical believers, especially those who cannot be tempted with baubles and glitter that shines at us in every store window beckoning us to worship consumerism. The hectic pace of modern life with so little time that one simply must collapse for those brief moments between the scheduled meeting, workout, night-school, and the children’s activities. Who has time for anything more? But unless we take the time to refresh our consciences and recharge our moral compasses society will continue spinning further and further out of control. What is it we seek with our frenetic paced lives; do we even know any more? Listen to the quiet little voice in the back recesses of your mind, it is still there, trust me. It will tell you secrets that you once knew but soon got squeezed from your life. I know the crippling schedule for those working two jobs, both full-time. The requirement that you take some time to recharge yourself does not disappear just because, it remains and eventually it will come screaming to the fore and demand you stop and take a deep breath. Sigh in from the mouth and let it out so slowly from the nostrils that you barely tickle the air. Again only deeper and with a more measured exhale. This is the easiest way to slow your pace and make you see reason. After you have done this at the end of each day or at lunch or whenever you can schedule your take a breath for sanity, then that voice can finally be heard and its message is simple, you know not every answer. Sure the news and science and everything you read tells how there is so little left that science does not know that is the lie told to make you forget. The little voice remembers and knows the bliss one can feel when we know that there is reason and value in life. Whatever manner of faith you are comfortable in, that is possibly just the recharging you need. It is just once or twice a week unless you desire more once you return and feel the encompassing warmth, love, acceptance, understanding and all those emotions and assurances which were missing in your life, there is a place where they can be found. We all want the world to be a better place but we seem lost in figuring out how. All each of us can do is our own part. Own, a strange word as it is in this case where it has so much meaning. There is our own part; the part assigned us even if that assignment comes from within us. There is the part in the world we own, we are responsible for and we get to structure it just how we desire others to know our part. Part from the business of life and take a moment with which we part from the fast paced caffeinated life and take a lemonade break on a hot day and you can part from the world and just enjoy the moment. We can take part in displaying that we have found the answer and then you can play the part which you know is what is really important. But the most important part is when you realize that the only real thing you can do to repair society and the world is make your little area, your part clean, warm and with its own sparkle and once you have done your part, then you can invite others to slow down and remember that they too can have a part in the world which they can be proud of and eventually the individual parts reach a point where they can change one small part of the world and from there who knows what they can part, maybe the Red Sea and again we can cross and be received. Just remember that the more we learn about the world the more we often realize how little we know, it is as if each answer spawns ten questions, and that’s what keeps scientists employed.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 15, 2015

Russia Iran Mutual Assistance Agreement

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What do Russia and Iran have in common? If your answer was sanctions, congratulations. The two have been under sanctions from the western nations. So, you might think that two nations under sanctions would both be suffering cash shortages and thus would both be too financially strapped to assist each other in any way. But there are ways nations can assist each other that do not require dollars, Euros, Pounds Sterling or any other normative tenders. But then the Iranians, or maybe for this we might call them by their original name, Persians and the Russians are returning to a more familiar means from history, trade and bartering. The Russians have something the Iranians have desired and made agreements which were prevented by combined actions by the United States and Israel, their advanced S-300 antiaircraft radar and missile systems. But what could the Iranians have that the Russians could use? Oddly enough, despite Russia being an oil exporter they have made an arrangement where the Iranians initially will pay for these advanced systems by shipping oil to the Russians and change their style of payment to some form of cash, not necessarily petro-dollars but rather some alternate currency which may be the initial first step to establishing an alternative international currency to compete with the dollar which Iran and Russia have been pressing for largely seeking to enjoin China in this effort which they believe might make such a currency internationally acceptable. In the meantime the oil provided as payment to the Russians will simply become a part of their own petroleum reserves as oil is an extremely fungible commodity which can be sold without fearing the buyer will be running laboratory tests to trace its nation of origin.

 

The Russians are moving on delivering these advanced antiaircraft radar and missile systems which are capable of targeting multiple aircraft including cruise missile and possibly some forms of ballistic missiles (not IBCM but ballistic mid-range missiles which do not leave the atmosphere and reenter the atmosphere) as quickly as the systems can be assembled, tested and configured. The Russians are showing little signs of putting this deal on hold and waiting for the sanctions to be officially removed and are not concerned whether the sanctions are going to be immediately removed upon the signing of a nuclear agreement as the Iranian Framework Agreement Farsi translation states, or gradually over a period of time after Iran meets certain markers as President Obama’s copy of the Framework Agreement claims. This not concerning the Iranians is more than readily believable and with the weakness shown by President Obama with his message requested to be given Putin by former Russian President Medvedev about his greater ability to be more flexible after the 2014 elections, like now, there will be no respect for anything President Obama might think forcing Putin to delay this deal more than about ten seconds. The Russians are actually apparently anxious to provide the Iranians with their advanced S-300, or perhaps the improved S-400, complete mobile anti-aircraft systems, almost as anxious as the Iranians are to receive them and put them around their nuclear development sites, even those sites which they will have switched over to spinning a mixture of gasses including a base noble gas and a cross-section of other gasses so that the cascaded centrifuges will retain their calibration and be immediately returned to uranium enrichment as soon as restrictions are retired, or whenever the Iranians decide to shoot for a nuclear weapon and deny the IAEA inspections and ignoring all restrictions of any agreement reached in the nuclear negotiations.

 

While the threat to use the military option should Iran break the deal reached presumably between now and June 30th and has repeatedly been brought to the world’s, and especially the media’s, collective attention by President Obama, the one truism existing is that the military option will remain there on the table for as long as President Obama is in office. The problem is that should the Russian deal with the Iranians come to fruition, and we doubt any threats from the west, either the Europeans or President Obama, are likely between the Russian energy stranglehold over the Europeans and President Obama’s greater flexibility, exercised like a man without a spine, would be believed by President Putin who would likely make a threatening move and all would wilt before his shirtless form. As far as the Iranians are concerned, and has been proven by the fiasco which have passed as negotiations, they really do not care what the rest of the world thinks and they know they have the upper hand as the Europeans have the military preparedness of a preschool compared to the Iranian missiles which can easily reach virtually all of Europe and the Americans have President Obama whose effeminateness precludes his taking any strong military attack is nil. Once the Russians have provided the Iranians with sufficient S-300 systems they will have become relatively immune from most military airstrike be they from jet fighter-bombers or cruise missiles. The S-300 systems radar station can track at least a dozen separate aircraft (up to seventy-two are trackable in its most advanced systems) and target six missiles in flight (up to thirty-six are targetable in its most advanced systems). A number of missiles are matched with a central radar system and both the missiles and radar system are mounted on trucks making the entire systems mobile, thus making them less easily targeted and easily relocated to guard targets considered most vulnerable at any given time. The S-300 systems, assuming the deal will provide Iran with as many systems as they desire, will make any air strikes by the Israelis close to impossible and at the least excessively costly in the cost of aircraft, and more importantly, pilots either lost or captured. Such a system would require stealth aircraft to avoid the high resolution wide-array radars. This would make Israeli Air Force excessively vulnerable and their initial targets would necessarily need to be the radar systems followed by the antiaircraft missiles themselves. Daring such attacks while not having the stealth aircraft for the mission would still present challenges which would tax any pilots beyond imagination. As far as a strike force from the United States, it would likely take their every F-22 Raptor escorting every B-2 Stealth Bomber with special radar seeking missiles equipped on the Raptors and for many of the buried and reinforced nuclear sites, especially the Fordow site, would require bunker-buster munitions with some requiring the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) which weighs 30,000 pounds (14,000 kg), with a length of 20.5 feet (6.2 m) and a circumference of 31.5 inches (0.80 m) and originally required a modification of the B-2 Stealth Bomber in order to carry this unfathomably strange and huge munition. Such an attack will not be even slightly possible before the next Presidential Inauguration before it should even be considered remotely possible, and then it will be dependent on who is the new President the people of the United States elect. The truth be told, this deal will be the final nail removed from the coffin to allow the nuclear mummy to rise from the crypt and begin the nightmarish specter of a nuclear armed theocratic realm with apocalyptic visions and aspirations to rise and spread the fears of nuclear annihilation across the globe and also release the spreading specters of fears spread to the rest of the Islamic nations of the Middle East and Northern Africa starting any number of nations, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait and beyond take this as their starting whistle to developing their own nuclear weapons to balance against any Iranian threats. A world with such a spread of nuclear arms will have become one threat removed from a miscalculation spawning a reaction which very easily could tilt the balance into crazy and soon might follow the raining of missiles carrying the end of life as we know it as the clouds rise in a column then spreading their bulbous sides outward making a large caldron of swirling hot gasses spreading outward poisoning a large swath of Earth and changing our outlook into the future, if there is to be a future, if there is going to be a future at all.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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