Beyond the Cusp

June 11, 2015

United States Performed Analysis of IDF

 

Willy Stern of Vanderbilt Law School investigated the performance of the IDF in their strategies, methodologies, individual conduct, performance, actions, any improvisations, divergence from orders and stratagem for avoiding civilian casualties during the Protective Edge campaign in Gaza against Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah and the other motley collection of terrorists last summer. The paper will be released as an article to be published next Monday in the Weekly Standard. William M. Stern is an Adjunct Professor of Law as well as a Veteran journalist. Professor Stern spent two weeks with attorneys in the IDF’s international law department augmenting this research by meeting with front-line commanders to get a realistic view of how well planned systems and methods were able to be incorporated in the actions by the very units upon whom the actual application of these orders were carried out. Professor Stern was granted full access to the IDF data base on their reports and investigations into troop performances and compliance with procedures, especially in papers pertaining to the steps taken in the efforts to avoid civilian casualties or at the least to minimize civilian casualties. His results were far different from the, as Professor Stern stated it, was part and parcel of the IDF’s “legal zeal” which proved to be completely incapable of preventing the undeserved deluge of international criticism against the IDF during and after Protective Edge. The condemnations came mostly from the Arab Palestinians, the Arab League, the United Nations Human Rights Commission, numerous NGOs, the European Union, Several European Nations, Iran, and other sources which seemed to produce such a torrent of nonstop denunciations which were mostly fallacious attributions against the IDF from data garnered largely from the spokesmen for Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah and the Arab Palestinian Authority which were repeated as factual without any fact-checking or alternate sourcing. In time the accusations would continue only this time each group would quote each other’s data and conclusions thus creating a huge, all-encompassing echo chamber where condemnation of the IDF using fallacious findings seemed to carry on for months and still quoted their lies after the actual facts were revealed while discounting that actual data when such was released.

 

Professor Stern’s findings and conclusions will never manage to have the attention from the mainstream media as it does not fit their agenda of Arabs being the downtrodden and oppressed people of color while the Israelis are cast by the all-knowing media as colonists completely ignoring the reality that Israel actually gained its independence from the real colonists, the British, years after the formation of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan (originally referred to as Transjordan) and other Arab nations making the pinning of the tag of colonist on Israel is another form of persecution of Israel through untruths and outright deceits which are the mainstay of the world’s leftist media. Professor Stern goes into detail explaining the IDF’s literally overwhelmed the civilians of Gaza by raining down leaflets warning that the location would come under attack even to the point of explaining whether the assault would come from the air or by land units and further informed the Gazans of pending actions with telephone calls, messages of Television and radio, and even calling political and other leaders in Gazan society so they could organize the evacuation of the civilians from targets areas which would soon be under assault despite these warnings also reaching the leadership and commanders of the Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah and other terrorists enabling them to set up ambushes against coming troops or evacuate while moving any assets from the target area, even at times informing enemies of detailed and fleshed out troop movements which also takes away any hope for surprise when the attack is launched. A quote from the article authored by Professor Stern states, “It was abundantly clear that IDF commanders had gone beyond any mandates that international law requires to avoid civilian casualties.” Another concluding observation comparing Hamas and Israel’s IDF when it comes to protecting the lives of the Gazan Arabs who are presumably reliant on Hamas and their decisions as the ruling force in Gaza where he wrote, “Hamas’s playbook calls for helping to kill its own civilians, while the IDF’s playbook goes to extreme- some say inappropriate- lengths to protect innocent life in war.” Talk about can’t win for losing.

 

Within the article numerous international legal experts are quoted confirming the factual finds of Professor Stern’s research. Many argued that the IDF’s actions went to inappropriate measures in order to protect the civilians of Gaza with the numerous, and often overlapping, routes used to warn the Gazan civilians. Wolff Heintschel von Heinegg, a military law expert at European University Viadrina in Frankfurt, Germany, had been brought to train IDF commanders about armed conflict laws in case some of the rules had been altered, changed or even replaced adding new restrictions and potentially affecting the rules of engagement (ROE) which could also alter the orders given in the field to assure compliance to the applicable legal codes and restrictions. Von Heinegg made a complaint that the IDF “is setting an unreasonable precedent for other democratic countries of the world who may also be fighting in asymmetric wars against brutal non-state actors who abuse these laws.”

 

Pnina Sharvit Baruch, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and former member of the IDF’s international law department also reported that she has received “recurring claims” from individuals who also worked with the legal divisions of militaries from numerous Western nations decrying the IDF’s efforts to comply with International Law and respond to every criticism. She reported the recurring theme that the IDF “is going too far in its self-imposed restrictions intended to protect civilians, and that this may cause trouble down the line for other democratic nations fighting organized armed groups.” Their restrictions in their ROE and the insistence of warning civilians through more discreet avenues such as calls in their cellphones was admirable and posed acceptable risks but their general method which disregarded the hazards attached to other methods which guaranteed their adversaries would also be notified of their intended actions allowing for easier ambush or removal of targeted supplies from selected locations the IDF intends to destroy gave adversaries too much of a tactical advantage which would cost Western forces in their actions for too vulnerable.

 

Michael Schmitt, director of the Stockton Center for the Study for International Law at the US Naval War College also concurred with the findings. Quoting his remarks, “The IDF’s warnings certainly go beyond what the law requires, but they also sometimes go beyond what would be operational good sense elsewhere.” Additionally Michael Schmitt noted, “People are going to start thinking that the United States and other Western democracies should follow the same examples in different types of conflict. That’s a real risk.”

 

The concurrence of these experts after their in depth study of the methodologies and rules for the warning of civilians, often by multiple means, displayed risks which placed the individual soldier and even entire units facing dangerous situations. In the IDF’s efforts they may have gone way too far in assuring that all civilians in targeted areas or areas of intended actions leading to risks that their efforts would be spoiled or lead to the troops being exposed to additional threats of ambush or entrenched opponents reacting to the warnings they had also been privileged to the same level of notice as the civilians. This is exactly the opposite of the reports and criticisms received during and immediately after and persisting for even months stretching well into the months after the end of Operation Protective Edge last summer. The repeated comparison of reported casualties repeated ad nauseum between levels of Gaza civilian deaths against the near perfect record of Israel and their deployments of the Iron Dome systems in strategic locations protecting the largest number of civilian targets as possible. One could almost hear the reporters decrying the lack of Jewish casualties and demanding with the complaints of disproportional casualty numbers that in fairness Israel should needlessly leave their civilians as vulnerable as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah and others allowed their civilians and possibly even to use Israeli civilians as carelessly and without regard for their lives in attempts to cause equal casualties just as their enemies in Gaza. The ghoulish reporting by a number of sources reporting on the conflict and their almost singular attention to the disparity between casualty numbers of civilians and the seeming regret that with the Iron Dome deployments gave the Israeli civilians too much protection compared to the ever so vulnerable Gazan civilians. The epitome of their singular regard for Gazan civilians’ protection against the Israelis climaxed when a reporter actually demanded that the Israelis should deploy Iron Dome systems in Gaza to provide equal protection for the civilians just the same as was provided for the Israelis. The findings by this research revealed a far different story giving to lies the reporting from last summer. Some might claim this is too little too late and there will be little to no coverage of these results. Where this may be a valid complaint, it is still an advantage to have such in depth, accurate and revealing story this report wove will be useful in presenting a defense of the IDF efforts and actions as well as the astounding efficiency of the Israeli defenses. We here at BTC would like to extend our thanks to Vanderbilt Law School’s Professor William M. Stern and his efforts at evaluating the actual data and giving a neutral and in-depth analysis and the ancillary concurrence of such respected individuals as Wolff Heintschel von Heinegg, a military law expert at European University Viadrina in Frankfurt, Germany; Pnina Sharvit Baruch, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies; and Michael Schmitt, director of the Stockton Center for the Study for International Law at the United States Naval War College. Receiving such high marks for their efforts to provide protective efforts and displaying concern for the civilians in Gaza, the IDF can stand proud as they always have and tout Professor Stern’s efforts which vindicated what the IDF had claimed all along. This report also puts to lie many of the most damaging reporting from last summer and the IDF efforts. The vindication of the IDF and the accusatorial claims against Hamas, Fatah, and Islamic Jihad and by these also the Arab Palestinian Authority was revealed for the equally responsible party with the participation of Fatah in the launches of rockets into Israel and aiming those rockets in order to target civilians over military targets. One last time, thank you for your objective and thorough efforts Professor Willy Stern, you have done a service in validating the Israel Defense Force and their efforts displaying their regard, concern and empathy for the Gazan civilians and the risks they were forced to face. Thank you.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 26, 2015

Israel Will Not Protect the World Alone This Time

Filed under: Act of War,Administration,Advanced Weapions Systems,Air Strike,Amalekites,American People Voice Opinion,Anti Missile System,Apocalypse,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Appointment,Armed Services,Army,Ayatollah,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,Ayatollahs,Breakout Point,Civilization,Command,Compulsary Service,Conflict Avoidnce,Coverup,Ditherer in Chief,Domestic NGOs,Egyptian Military,EMP Device,European Pressure,Executive Order,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,IAF,ICBM,IDF,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Military,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,Iraqi Military,IRGC,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jihad,Jimmy Carter,John Kerry,Leftist Pressures,Military,Military Intervention,Mohammad Mosaddegh,Mohammad-Rezā Pahlavi,Muslim World,Non Binding Resolution,North Korean Pressure,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Proliferation,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,P5+1,Permanenet Members,Persia,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,Promised Land,Rebel Forces,Russian Pressure,Saddam Hussein,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,Security Council,State Department,Supreme Leader,Syria,Taqiyya,Threat of War,Twelvers,United Arab Republic,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,Uranium Enrichment,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Without Zionism or America — qwertster @ 2:39 AM
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Back when Saddam Hussein was actually developing nuclear weapons material and was having the perfect nuclear reactor being built by profiteering interests from France and had bunkers constructed by an equally monetarily enterprising German company and believing they had the world fooled as the Europeans were more concerned by their bottom line and the United States was apparently blithely ignorant of the Iraqi game; so the weight of dispatching the central items of what was potentially the Iraqi nuclear weapons development central point, the reactor was relegated to the Israelis acting alone. The Iraqis were not using the technically challenging uranium differentiation system, which in the early 1980s was a rather daunting challenge, and instead was opting for a plutonium producing reactor. This left the Iraqis with what was apparently an unfettered romp to develop nuclear weapons while appearing to remain compliant to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) of which Iraq was a signatory. And so it remained until the morning of June 7, 1981 when the Israelis launched “Operation Opera” to destroy the French built and almost ready to have its nuclear fuel rods installed Osirak Reactor which was capable of producing weapons grade plutonium. The entirety of the Western world opposed any attack on the reactor or accompanying buildings as the Europeans relied on Iraqi oil or had too numerous business dealings and other profitable relations which may have faced difficulties or potential cancellation should Iraq suspect the Western powers in any way supported any such attack. Even within Israel there were the expected and usual detractors against Israeli actions including the then leader of the opposition Labor Party Shimon Peres, Yitzchak Shamir predicting extreme and non-survivable reactions and backlash as well as those in the cabinet who also opposed any attack for various reasons chief of which was the effect it would have on the peace treaty with Egypt. Prime Minister Menachem Begin still pushed the idea for an intervention to destroy the reactor forward in hopes the Cabinet would eventually see there was no other viable choice. There were logistics problems which had to be overcome such as but not limited to removing external fuel tanks on the F-16s in order to equip them with the heavy munitions necessary for the attack, assign F-15s to guard the bombers to, from and during the attack in case of Iraqi countermeasures, as well as training the pilots to fly on the floor to avoid being detected by any Arab radar and choosing a route which would also minimize detection. The final trigger which finally won approval for the attack was the knowledge that the fuel rods had been prepared for shipment from France to Iraq which if installed would have resulted in a radioactive cloud from any assault making the vote a now or never choice. This changed the critical opposition to now support the attack. The original attack date was set but it became necessary to call off the attack and reschedule it for the next month. Fortunately this setback still permitted the attack to be set before the fuel rods were to be installed in the reactor or even be stored in close proximity to the reactor buildings themselves. The Osirak Reactor was destroyed and Israel faced censure at the United Nations with President Ronald Reagan refusing to use the American veto to protect the Israelis as he too felt betrayed by their attack without first having received his approval, something he had all but assured was not forthcoming even had it been sought. The remainder including the Western world’s great reliefs and their acclamations and thanks, even if belated, that they were not facing a nuclear armed Saddam Hussein in either the first or second Gulf Wars.

 

Looking at Iran one might be tempted to claim that it seems like, if we may be permitted to steal a quotation from Yogi Berra, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” This time it’s not Iraq but their neighbor, Iran. It is not Saddam Hussein but rather the Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. This time it is a Shiite ruler not a Sunni ruler though it is once again an adversary of Saudi Arabia. And just like the last time, the Saudis Royals are not about to launch any attack, especially not on their own and highly unlikely they would ally with and accompany the Israelis. The United States is once again against any such attack and threatens to withhold any usual protection at the United Nations Security Council should Israel choose to ignore their opposition and attack anyways. The Europeans are once again all after the rewards of trade agreements they are already salivating over as the United States takes the brunt of any criticisms for the near obvious bad deal of a lifetime as President Obama is willing to take the scorns and suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune if it permits him to construct a new kingdom in the Middle East to replace the old alliances with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel with one where the United States and Iran share the hegemony with Iran the hegemony taking care of the Middle East and the United States free to attend to other concerns. This alliance comes complete with other supporting characters including but not limited to Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and potentially Yemen and whichever other nations the ever slowly devouring appetite of the Ayatollahs set their attentions towards. Additionally, the Russians are playing the role of the Soviet Union in the Middle East and beyond with an unsurprising echo of the Soviet past with the Russian President being Colonel Putin formerly of KGB fame and China will be China taking advantage of any situation the world inadvertently creates, like the need by Iran for an outlet to sell their crude oil. Thus the world is hurling full steam ahead towards a nuclear armed nation which remains the inheritors of the Persian Empire’s proud historic past with all of its attitude of empire which they traded in order to name themselves after the Nazi master race Aryan, or Iran in Farsi, and add to such the trait and heritage of the potentially suicidal belief patterns of Shia Islam and these nations central to permitting this nuclear arming of such a nation all claim Israel has lost it and gone over the deep end when they claim that perhaps a second look might be a good idea.

 

There have been more than just a few articles which point to the fact that the world is relying on good old Israel to ride over the hill and rescue the world from itself once more. They even point to the fact that there exist a number of Sunni nations including but not limited to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States which would potentially offer their assistance or at least give spiritual support. There is some bad news for the world; it is going to take a whole different level of support if they really expect Israel to suffer the ramifications of and the promised denunciations, trade embargoes, United Nations sanctions, and other barbs and mistreatments in size and scope potentially previously unimagined. Israel has stated that they are quite capable and up to the task of striking and setting the Iranian nuclear program back potentially months or even for over a year or even two years. That is not the question; the question is whether it is worth the severe and unprecedented ramifications that is the main concern for Israel. Israel has to weigh whether it will be beyond her ability to guarantee that Iran has too much to lose by using their nuclear weapons once they develop and build them, whether that be in ten months or the ten years that President Obama promises, making it thus worth the price which would be guaranteed in the retaliatory strikes by Hamas, Hezballah, Syria, IRGC and a guarantee that Iran will use their first nuclear weapon on Tel Aviv no matter what the cost even should it require using it from aboard a ship making a suicide run for the shoreline beaches of Tel Aviv. The consequences of assaulting the Iranian nuclear sites are well known to Israel as well as her neighbors in the Middle East. These are the very same consequences which have intimidated the other nations who, like Israel, will be threatened by a nuclear weapon armed Iran. It is this threat which may well lead to a nuclear weapons arms race throughout the Middle East and North Africa with Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and even the Gulf States leading the way. This too must also be included in the Israeli calculus. The one thing heard repeatedly is that there is no threats which Israel could use to deter the Iranians from carrying out their threat to launch a nuclear attack on Tel Aviv once they have sufficient a store of nuclear weapons to follow up with further strike should Israel retaliate.

 

That leads us to the question of exactly what threats could Israel utilize to prevent a nuclear attack by the Iranians once they are sufficiently armed. The unfortunate, or potentially advantageously, truth about the threats which would be most effective on Iran is that they would also be very disconcerting and threatening to the rest of the Muslim world. It is obvious that should Iran drop any nuclear weapons anywhere, or everywhere, across Israel that Israel would strike every population center across all of Iran, Syria, Shiite Iraq and Hezballah portions of Lebanon and thus these would not be sufficient deterrence to prevent an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel. But then peer pressure may be exactly what might be required to pressure Iran from striking at Israel. The first targets Israel needs to assure Iran will be targeted beyond her borders should be every holy shrine and city in all of Shia Islam. Going beyond this point would be potentially dangerous for Israel as it would also potentially push what might be uncomfortable allies throughout the Muslim world forcing them to become an ally with Iran against Israel. Still, some concern might be given to such targets as to the two cities which Iran has placed as their most prized desire in all the world and the reason that Iran and Saudi Arabia are so set against one another, Mecca and Medina. These are the most prized cities in all of Islam and before World War I were under the care of the Hashemite Royal Family. That changed with the fall of the Ottoman Empire when the Saudi Royal Family forcibly took control of Mecca and Medina. This was the reason behind the British promise to grant the Hashemite family a kingdom in exchange for their assistance during World War I and thus Jordan today ruled by a Hashemite King. Such a threat though of destroying Mecca and Medina would be a counter attack as a last ditch response after a disastrous attack which had likely destroyed the majority of the Israeli population and economic centers simply by striking central Tel Aviv with any nuclear weapon. With such damage already inflicted on Israel there would be so little left to risk as Israel as a functioning nation would be in serious jeopardy. In a perfect world Israel would not be facing such a predicament but then again in a perfect world President Jimmy Carter would not have given the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini the support in dethroning the Shah and thus the Ayatollahs would not be in power in Iran. But in a really perfect world the United States would not have overthrown the democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh placing the Shāh Mohammad-Rezā Pahlavi into power reestablishing the Iranian Royal family. Perfect worlds can be so confusing and lead to a tangled web that takes some serious untangling. I guess the world would never be a perfect place and then who knows if we would actually really like what a perfect world might give us as result, who knows.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 14, 2015

They Have Actually Started Eating Each Other

Filed under: 1967 War,24/7 News Reporting,Absolutism,Administration,Al-Aksa Martyrs Brigade,al-Aqsa Mosque,Amalekites,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Appointment,Arab Appeasement,Arab Authority,Arab League,Arab World,Arabs,Ariel Sharon,Ballot Access,Blood Libel,Borders,Children Crippled,Children Murdered,Civil War,Civilization,Clan,Command,Condoleezza Rice,Count Ballots,Coverup,Elections,European Governments,European Media,European Pressure,European Union,Failed State,Fatah,Fatah Charter,Foreign Funding,Gaza,George W. Bush,Government,Government Controlled Media,Green Line,Hamas,Hamas Charter,Hate,Humanitarian Aid,IDF,Income,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Iranian Pressure,ISIS,ISIS in Gaza,ISIS in Judea and Samaria,Islam,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamic Pressure,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Interests,Israeli Media,Jenin,Jewish State,Jihad,Jihad,Jobs,Judea,Knifing,Koran,Leftist Pressures,Mahmoud Abbas,Mainstream Media,Media,Media Bias,Media Censorship,Media Intimidation,Military Coup,Misreporting,Muslim World,Muslims,Nablus,NGO,Nonjudicial Assassination,Omission,Oslo Accords,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Legislative Committee,Palestinian Media,Palestinian Pressures,Palestinian Security Force,Parliament,Politicized Findings,Politics,President,President for Life,Prime Minister,Ramallah,Rebel Forces,Refugee Camp,Refugees,Samaria,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,Security,Shechem,Shooting Victims,Six Day War,Standard of Living,Talking Heads,Terror,Theocracy,Threat of War,Tribe,United Nations Presures,United States Pressure,Validate Elections,Victims,West Bank,World Media,World Opinion,World Pressures,Yasser Arafat — qwertster @ 2:18 AM
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The differences between Hamas and Fatah have been well documented and their 2007 open warfare for the control of Gaza was simply the Super Bowl which had one merciful fact, it lasted just under one week from June 10 to June 15, 2007. The official casualty count was one-hundred-twenty Palestinian combatants and thirty-nine Palestinian civilians and two UN personnel. This was the most famous and heavily reported violence between Palestinian factions though there have been numerous breakouts of violence between different family groups, crime entities, competing terrorist groups and sometimes even violence between individuals. Most of the violence has been ignored by most of the world’s media as reporting on violent disagreements between separate Palestinians would detract from their normally presented angelic image usually used to paint the darlings of the mainstream leftist media. If Israelis had problems anywhere near the level of the animosities often overlooked between Hamas and Fatah it would lead every newscast and top every newspaper in the world. Unfortunately for the mainstream media the animosity between Hamas and Fatah and the charges Hamas levels against the Palestinian Authority and Mahmoud Abbas has been such that it has demanded coverage from time to time. Just to give an idea of the extent that differences and threats between even Hamas and Fatah and the President of the Palestinian Authority just this past week Mahmoud al-Zahar, an ranking officer with Hamas, leveled challenges to the rule of Mahmoud Abbas calling his continued rule as illegitimate as he has not stood for election and thus Abbas’s term as “president” expired years ago. He further accused Abbas of “treachery” for allowing for security coordination and cooperation with the IDF (Israel Defense Forces). Zahar also equated Abbas’s name as an “embarrassment” to every Palestinian. Zahar also addressed the charge that Hamas was working to form their own Palestinian state in Gaza by presenting that Hamas would not be satisfied with a state in Gaza or in the “West Bank” (Judea and Samaria) as their intent is intent on the complete destruction of Israel. Mahmoud Al-Zahar further stated, “If we succeed in setting up a government in Gaza, autonomy, civil administration or any other framework on a portion of the land of Palestine, that does not mean that we give up on one other grain of Palestine.” Just one week earlier Al-Zahar demanded an end to the Palestinian Authority and explained that the “honeymoon period” was over as was any hope of continuing the “unity government” calling for a return to the “armed struggle.” Of course none of this was reported on the evening news throughout much of the world even including some newscasts in Israel. These little spats cannot be permitted to spoil the view that everything between the factions within the Palestinian Arab families might have even the slightest possibility of hitting a rough spot.

 

The truth is that rough spots is the norm between Hamas and Fatah or even Hamas and the Arab Palestinian Authority and have been that way since the elections in 2006 when Hamas won the Parliamentary elections and Abbas decided that there was no need for having an election for his spot as the President of the Arab Palestinian Authority as he had just succeeded the Late Yasser Arafat just over eighteen months earlier and extended his term until the next elections in 2009. This problem was the result of the hubris of the United States, surprise, surprise. President George W. Bush and his then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice insisted that the Palestinian Parliamentary elections of 2006 had to be open to all the parties of the Arab Palestinian Authority, both Fatah and Hamas. Somehow they missed insisting on Islamic Jihad but why quibble over degrees of disasters. Mahmoud Abbas pleaded with President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to reconsider informing that allowing for Hamas to field candidates against Fatah would result in a disaster and a Hamas victory, the only variable was the scale of the disaster. Prime Minister Sharon also demanded that this open election not be pressed as it would all but guarantee a Hamas victory which Israel pressed would be a disaster for Israel, any hopes for peace and might even result in a new war. President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice remained adamant and the rest is history, Hamas won a majority in the Parliament and all elections going forward would end up cancelled after the Gaza War which led to a Hamas government in Gaza and a Fatah controlled Arab Palestinian Authority in Judea and Samaria (West Bank).

 

There was a new wrinkle this past week when violence flared in Judea and Samaria between different segments of the Arab Palestinian Authority, of different Fatah factions. The latest flare-up has broken out in two locations, Jenin, once the location of a false massacre that to this day is still used to attempt to besmirch the IDF despite the fact that even the United Nations, not exactly the best friend when it comes to defending Israel, investigated the battle and found that for all intents and purposes the casualties were virtually all combatants and the numbers were minimal and nowhere near the numbers claimed by Palestinian spokespersons or numerous international NGOs, and Nablus, historically named Shechem since the times of ancient Israel of nearly three-thousand years ago. Both Jenin and Nablus are within Area A which places them under complete Arab Palestinian Authority control which includes both civil and security. The laws in these two cities and surrounding areas is made by the Arab Palestinian Authority Parliament and is enforced completely by the Arab Palestinian Authority Security Forces personnel. All of this was spelled out and stipulated part and parcel in the 1993 Oslo Accords and was intended to allow the Arabs to prove they were capable of self-rule and managing their own areas, the results of this have been mixed at best. The violence which broke out this week was not a sign that things are going neither well in Jenin nor in Nablus. Let us take the two locations separately.

 

Jenin has been a powder-keg as the refugee camp there has been the home of numerous different terrorist squads and crime within the camp has been a running problem as the refugees are denied employment and are prime candidates to join terrorist squads or turn to crime as any manner of escape from the camps is highly desirable. The fact that there are Arab Palestinian refugee camps within Judea and Samaria as well as within Gaza is virtually beyond belief. These Arabs are living in what can only be described as government provided apartment buildings similar in design to the government housing in the inner cities in the United States, permanent structures made of concrete forms and fully furnished just as any other apartment building except that these apartment buildings hold Palestinians denoted as refugees living amongst Palestinians in a Palestinian governed area. Should the world decide tomorrow to end the farce which is the Palestinian refugee permanent and festering situation where if either of your parents were refugees then you will grow up as a refugee and your children and their children yet to be born will also be refugees. The violence, which was reported in some news media given the kind of coverage where it was not a leading story, broke out on Friday between members of the Fatah Party, possibly from their “military wing” the al-Aqsa’s Military Brigades, and Arab Palestinian Authority Security Forces, the “military and police forces” of the Arab Palestinian Authority which is made up mostly if not entirely by Fatah members in central Jenin near the refugee camp. This was simply the latest in a series of firefights between the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades forces and the Arab Palestinian Authority forces. One such incident resulted in the Arab Palestinian Authority Security Force Headquarters being engulfed in a hail of bullets where fortunately and miraculously nobody was injured.

 

The amazing thing is the Fatah and the Arab Palestinian Authority both have Mahmoud Abbas as their leader. Abbas is the Chairman of the Fatah Party and the President of the Arab Palestinian Authority, so this pitted armed men from one side under Mahmoud Abbas shooting and engaged with armed men on the other side under Mahmoud Abbas, and this is a normalcy within their society with its dualities often drawn to separate the so-called refugees from the rest of the population. The next day, Saturday, in the Balata “Refugee Camp” in Nablus, the car of a leading Fatah activists, Fayiz Arafat, was set on fire. Several days before his vehicle was burnt, he was the target of an apparent assassination attempt which the local people placed the blame on the Arab Palestinian Authority Security officers. These shootings have been escalating under the radar for quite some time and only recently have they spilled out of control and thus started to be reported in some reports within the communities, both refugee and normative Arab Palestinians. These outbursts of violence have been escalating with their having been two main sources leading up to these escalations, coup attempts by Hamas and the influx of ISIS supporters starting to form cells which are then seen as rivals leading to their targeting by the long-standing forces from within Fatah, some of which also serve in the Arab Palestinian Authority Security Forces. Last year there was being formed a larger force by Hamas operatives for the purpose of launching a coup against Fatah and taking over the Arab Palestinian Authority in a similar escalation which resulted in Gaza being run by Hamas outside of the Arab Palestinian Authority control and rule. The Hamas growing threat was detected by Israeli forces who arrested the leaders of the cell and the cell collapsed fragmenting without its leadership.

 

The breakout of firefights between Fatah al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade forces and the Arab Palestinian Authority Security Forces is a surprising development. The supporters of the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades forces lay all of the blame for instigating this situation by pressing their efforts against Fatah Activists Fayiz Arafat as part and parcel of their attempts to also take control over the Balata Refugee Camp wresting it from its local control and enforcement by the Fatah forces. This is not as far-fetched as it may at first appear as there has been any number of these situations recently. Some of the violence has occurred before but then mostly as isolated incidents. There was also the arrest and breakup of an ISIS cell in Hevron earlier this month and more such threats promise to appear as ISIS has gained strength by garnering recruits from both Fatah members and Hamas members plus anyone who have lost their faith in the faction’s ability to deliver on its promises of destroying Israel and instead seek out ISIS who have a record of being the stronger force capable of delivering on their promises for actions in place of words though we have seen little reservations. Should these differences continue to fracture the Arab society and place each group at the other groups’ throats with the violence constantly ramping upward becoming more serious, eventually destroying any hopes of the entire Arab community. Turning to ISIS will simply represent the Arab society proving that their intent was never to form their own state but solely to destroy the Jewish State of Israel. Such irreconcilable truth being exhibited will only serve to refute even their most ardent supporters’ claims that their intentions are of a limited nature and not having the complete destruction of Israel as their lifelong goal. Turning to ISIS will signal the end of the ability of even the Europeans and the lunatic fringe extreme leftists from denying the claim that the aims of the Palestinian society is destruction of Israel and not the construction of their own state.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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